Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

kevinandrew

California Dreamer wrote: »

Minor rant.

Aer Lingus operate an aircraft designed for long haul ops to another international airport with 2 crews who can utilise crew rest/business class seating and I am assuming are well catered to China to pick up some PPE and the first crews are hailed heroes and are on the late late show.

Ryanair, a short haul low cost airline operate a high density 737 with no crew rest, no business class for 7+ hours with crews that are more used to short flights, turn it around and fly back via Seville and there is hardly a peep out of social media let alone the press.

No axe to grind, just doesnt seem very fair plus we got no background to the flight, the need for it and one person suggested it was for the ESB.

It’s all about scale and the media narrative.

The Aer Lingus operations began much earlier in this crisis, just as the PPE shortages were becoming a major talking point so it was an easy headline grabber. The operation was a joint effort by the Irish Government, Aer Lingus and China which helped the media narrative of Aer Lingus, the former national airline and a symbol of Ireland, stepping up for the country when it was needed most. We know in reality it wasn’t quite as romantic as that but running with this angle is the quickest way to sell a story, get retweets and website traffic.

Ryanair’s operation, while logistically impressive, doesn’t quite have the same emotional attachment. It was a repatriation flight arranged by a private company so lacks the emotive angle and also comes a few weeks after Ryanair was accused of all sorts following another flight arranged by a private business.

Inquitus

Boeing to cut 10% of its workforce.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/29/boeing-plans-slash-staff-reports-17-billion-loss-amid-pandemic-fallout-max-grounding/

bk

Even if Aer Lingus was re-nationalised (which I don't think it will), I don't know why people think that would save jobs!

The government tends to be as aggressive at cutting costs as any other owner. Take for example CIE, a semi state company, last recession they laid hundreds off and rumours are swirling of the same happening again. Just last week, hundreds were laid off at Bord Na Mona, another semi-state.

Nationalisation is no guarantee.

Nijmegen

I think IAG is looking to get cash injections for its constituent parts from national governments in Spain and UK. If this happens and EI needs cash, the Irish government could have to step in. If it does so it could make bailout cash conditional on receiving an equity stake either in IAG or EI as a subsidiary company.

kona

bk wrote: »

Even if Aer Lingus was re-nationalised (which I don't think it will), I don't know why people think that would save jobs!

The government tends to be as aggressive at cutting costs as any other owner. Take for example CIE, a semi state company, last recession they laid hundreds off and rumours are swirling of the same happening again. Just last week, hundreds were laid off at Bord Na Mona, another semi-state.

Nationalisation is no guarantee.

The government is well able to piss away taxpayers money!

Widdensushi

Inquitus wrote: »

Boeing to cut 10% of its workforce.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/29/boeing-plans-slash-staff-reports-17-billion-loss-amid-pandemic-fallout-max-grounding/

surprised it's only 10 %

troyzer

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/irish-government-backs-airlines-in-battle-over-customer-refunds-39167865.html

Irish Government officially backing the airlines now over refunds.

Harry Palmr

Locker10a wrote: »

I think it will pass in a few months and be forgotten about by mid summer

Still think so?

Jack1985

kevinandrew wrote: »

I think the next two years will be touch and go with a major restructure aimed at ensuring long term viability. A last in, first out policy would be a quick fix but a more effective savings programme would be a complete review of every aspect of the business, top to bottom. It could make 'Greenfield' look like a walk in the park.

We agree on many things but certainly not this. The cost structure is sound in EI, in fact EI is sported as an example to other airlines in the group,

What has happened here is a collapse of over 90% of revenues in EI and similarly amongst its sister airlines. That is cataclysmic to any business. Cuts to pay of 50% have been implemented, if the company require more they can be discussed but they have to be temporary in nature.

The EI Business was very different when Greenfield was brought in, many EI staff remember it well and the false promises from it. A microscope over T&C's of EI staff for the future is not welcome at the moment. Everyone recognises however employment will have to decrease as the airline won't be resuming ops shadowing what was being operated this time last year.

Kcormahs

Jack1985 wrote: »

We agree on many things but certainly not this. The cost structure is sound in EI, in fact EI is sported as an example to other airlines in the group,

What has happened here is a collapse of over 90% of revenues in EI and similarly amongst its sister airlines. That is cataclysmic to any business. Cuts to pay of 50% have been implemented, if the company require more they can be discussed but they have to be temporary in nature.

The EI Business was very different when Greenfield was brought in, many EI staff remember it well and the false promises from it. A microscope over T&C's of EI staff for the future is not welcome at the moment. Everyone recognises however employment will have to decrease as the airline won't be resuming ops shadowing what was being operated this time last year.

Employment decrease in which %? And would they target redundancy for pre-greenfield contracts? Or last in first out? Hard to say right now

Jack1985

Kcormahs wrote: »

Employment decrease in which %? And would they target redundancy for pre-greenfield contracts? Or last in first out? Hard to say right now

An organisation can't target any group of employees with redundancy. They can simply offer varying offers to trigger interest in a redundancy packages.

Conservatively, I'm hearing we could see a loss of over 500 jobs in EI and that was a conservative estimate.

It will be on departmental requirement and the status quo is last in first out, which potentially could be influenced by uptake of a package if it was offered but I must stress there is no indication EI are going to be offering them as of yet.

Kcormahs

Jack1985 wrote: »

An organisation can't target any group of employees with redundancy. They can simply offer varying offers to trigger interest in a redundancy packages.

Conservatively, I'm hearing we could see a loss of over 500 jobs in EI and that was a conservative estimate.

It will be on departmental requirement and the status quo is last in first out, which potentially could be influenced by uptake of a package if it was offered but I must stress there is no indication EI are going to be offering them as of yet.

500 per department?! Or over all? Cabin crew there is about 1900. Thats mean 26%. Bare in mind differently from BA, aer lingus operates their fleet at minimum crew

Jack1985

Kcormahs wrote: »

500 per department?! Or over all? Cabin crew there is about 1900. Thats mean 26%. Bare in mind differently from BA, aer lingus operates their fleet at minimum crew

I haven't stated how many per department, have a read over my post again.

Kcormahs

Jack1985 wrote: »

I haven't stated how many per department, have a read over my post again.

No need for such rudeness. I only asked how many per department you would say thats all

Jack1985

Kcormahs wrote: »

No need for such rudeness. I only asked how many per department you would say thats all

I actually wasn't being rude you interpreted that. :cool:

Nobody will be sharing how many per department, EI don't know that themselves yet.

Blut2

Hopefully EI aren't hit anywhere near as badly as BA. I know they're IAG really now, and they have their flaws (AerClub!!), but like many others on this forum my experiences with EI as an airline have been exceptionally positive over the years. Their staff above all are always so helpful and go above and beyond their duties. In direct contrast to those in Ryanair most particularly, but also many other airlines I've dealt with.

From everything I've read/heard EI's ops seem to be fairly lean and well run these days, so maybe we'll see far less severe cuts than at BA. If they could get away with mostly only having people retire a year or two earlier than planned via voluntary redundancy it'd be great.

Tenger

BA have 42,000 staff and have warned of up to 12000 redundancies.
EI have approx 4000 staff, so an estimate of 500-1000 redundancies seems reasonable.
EI are/were leaner than BA but IAG is calling the shots overall.

donkey balls

https://jrnl.ie/5087684

Check out the comments section the majority off people posting are fairly p*ssed off with the government endorsing vouchers only, i think the vouchers could be a good way of keeping the airlines afloat.
But people have mentioned companies that closed and they could not redeem the voucher and they could say what if the airline went bang etc.
I be due refunds on one flight so far and have another two later on in the year, I m not really bothered about it at the moment I have friends in both FR and EI along with FBO etc I be more concerned on what's going happen them.

medoc

As regards refunds people are normally and rightly so entitled to a refund if there is a cancellation, but these are highly exceptional times. Lots of businesses are in unchartered territory. I wouldn’t see a problem with a voucher that lasted for say 24 months possibly with a 10% bonus as an acknowledgement. If after the 24 months you didn’t use it then the airline refund it at the non 10% bonus original level. If an airline goes bust then the government would refund.

troyzer

What if you have €5k booked with Norweigan for an extended family holiday to New York?

There is absolutely no way I would accept a voucher in that situation.

Inquitus

troyzer wrote: »

What if you have €5k booked with Norweigan for an extended family holiday to New York?

There is absolutely no way I would accept a voucher in that situation.

Aye its all relative, if you have had your wages cut due to being out of work due to Covid you'd want your €5k right back in your pocket, not some never never pie in the sky voucher.

Nijmegen

Government moving the goalposts on refunds is a way to force consumers to prop up airlines in place of bailout cash - either extending the time till they need a bailout or the amount they'll need in the end.

As I've said elsewhere, vouchers are highly variable in their value at the present time. Apart from the fact that you don't know when you'll be able to travel, the likelihood of significant fare inflation when travel is back is high. So if you get a €115 voucher in credit for your €100 flight, you could find that rebooking that flight will cost you €130 (or a lot more) when this is all said and done and airlines have retrenched. We don't know the size of the premium but we can guess that there will be one.

Furthermore, airlines that issue vouchers could very well go to the wall and your voucher is very low on the list of protected creditors in a bankruptcy restructuring.

I know we're saying "these are exceptional times", but we should also acknowledge what government is doing here: It is changing the rules mid-game on consumers to effectively control their cash and use it to effect its desired outcomes.

Airlines have been complicit in it by dragging their heels on issuing refunds whilst actively lobbying government on the issue.. It's absolutely the economically prudent thing for an airline to look for but also makes a mockery of consumer protections to be honest and is a pretty blatant screwing over of your customers.

Kcormahs

No bailout for airlines in Ireland according to the Taoiseach

‘’ “I want to see Ryanair and Aer Lingus operate sometime in the summer, sometime in August. And I wouldn’t like to be in a situation whereby we end up having to bail out airlines,” he added.’’


https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/taoiseach-airlines-vouchers-5088270-Apr2020/%3famp=1

Sheep Shagger

Kcormahs wrote: »

No bailout for airlines in Ireland according to the Taoiseach

‘’ “I want to see Ryanair and Aer Lingus operate sometime in the summer, sometime in August. And I wouldn’t like to be in a situation whereby we end up having to bail out airlines,” he added.’’


https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/taoiseach-airlines-vouchers-5088270-Apr2020/%3famp=1

While I agree with him its hardly a level playong field with conpetitors like Luthansa and Air France/KLM lining up with the begging bowl out.

basill

Since when has the EU ever been a level playing field. Do as I say not as I do.

Tenger

Regarding vouchers over refunds.
I can see the rationale for Govts asking for vouchers to be allowed, in order to keep those companies afloat.
But those same Govts should be required to stand over the vouchers, ie. if an airline collapses then the Govt gives the customer the cash refund.
In addition a bonus,as previously mentioned should be given to the customer for their forebearance, ie 10-20% extra value added to the voucher.

The example of a 5K family ticket is valid, some method to keep the option of cash refund should be retained. Bonuses to voucher to encourage their use should be used but cash should still be a n option.

Nijmegen

It’s gas how quickly we accept the goalposts being moved. It’s your money, paid over for a specific service delivered at a specific time, with consumer protections enshrined in law to allow you a refund if they don’t deliver. Then airlines drag their feet on a refund whilst lobbying government to change the rules and for the most part we sit back and take it. If I had a few grand locked in an airline I’d be chasing them in the small claims court at least.

Tenger

Absolutely. It's easy to discuss this when you aren't owned a pile of cash.
I had 1 flight booked but it is under €200. I'm happy to take a voucher +10% as I know I will fly with them again. (Aer Lingus to LHR)

Far different situation if you are laid off/cut in salary and have 500 or more booked with an airline. Hence why I think they have to maintain an option for cash refund. Incentivise the voucher route by all means, but don't stop cash refunds.

I'm feeling happy that the family holiday hadn't yet been booked.

Sheep Shagger

Won't be suprising but Ryanair have announced this morning the cancellation of virtually all their flights until July.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1135969/

PommieBast

Sheep Shagger wrote: »

Won't be suprising but Ryanair have announced this morning the cancellation of virtually all their flights until July.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rte.ie/amp/1135969/

The bit at the very end about state aid caught my attention though..