Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

basill

billyhead wrote: »

Any update on the redundancy packages with Ryanair and Air Lingus? Will it be offered to those near retirement?

Its Aer Lingus. There isn't a redundancy package at the present.

There are, however, media who "interpreted" EI management wanting to achieve a 20% cost saving and arrived at an arbitrary figure of 900 possible redundancies based on the existing headcount. So the company is currently in negotiation with the various unions and we will have to wait and see what the outcome is.

The financials were released today and of note within EI is that the weekly cash burn rate has been more than halved already.

billyhead

basill wrote: »

Its Aer Lingus. There isn't a redundancy package at the present.

There are, however, media who "interpreted" EI management wanting to achieve a 20% cost saving and arrived at an arbitrary figure of 900 possible redundancies based on the existing headcount. So the company is currently in negotiation with the various unions and we will have to wait and see what the outcome is.

The financials were released today and of note within EI is that the weekly cash burn rate has been more than halved already.

Cheers. Apologies for the typo. What way do you think they will cut the workforce numbers?

LXFlyer

billyhead wrote: »

Cheers. Apologies for the typo. What way do you think they will cut the workforce numbers?

That is an internal company decision.

No one here is going to able to answer that.

That is something between the company and its employees.

Sheep Shagger

300 Air New Zealand pilots made redundant out of 1200...

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2020/05/300-air-nz-pilots-made-redundant-hundreds-more-taking-30-percent-pay-cut.html

Inquitus

German Government to bail out Lufthansa and take a larger stake in the company.

Lufthansa on Thursday said it is negotiating a 9 billion euro ($9.71 billion) "stabilisation package" with Germany's Federal Economic Stabilization Fund, confirming an earlier Reuters report.

The bailout includes a non-voting capital component, known as a so-called silent participation, a secured loan, and a capital increase which may leave the German government with a shareholding of up to 25% plus one share, the company said.

https://www.marketscreener.com/DEUTSCHE-LUFTHANSA-GROUP-436827/news/Deutsche-Lufthansa-Lufthansa-says-is-seeking-9-billion-euro-bailout-30559127/

Elaine762

basill wrote: »

Its Aer Lingus. There isn't a redundancy package at the present.

There are, however, media who "interpreted" EI management wanting to achieve a 20% cost saving and arrived at an arbitrary figure of 900 possible redundancies based on the existing headcount. So the company is currently in negotiation with the various unions and we will have to wait and see what the outcome is.

The financials were released today and of note within EI is that the weekly cash burn rate has been more than halved already.

I thought Unions had said the company mentioned voluntary redundancy programme?

Marcusm

Tenger wrote: »

Saw info from IAG on their quarterly financial results.
They estimate that traffic won’t return to 2019 levels until 2023.
That’s bleak.

I'd say it might also be a bit hopeful. Unlike say 9/11 and the Icelandic ash disaster. this has been extended meaning that there has been a significant period of disruption in business travel. This conjoined with low economic outlook means that business travel will continue to be suspended even when there is an effective vaccine (12-18 months by the time it is proven and widely taken up?). The financial crisis did not hit all countries or businesses equally whereas Covid-19 is widely dispersed. I would venture ot say that a lot of businesses and individuals will not have the same appetite for travel within 5 years. There are midlife aricraft which might never fly again. Bearing in mind the number of MAx aircraft etc waiting to be released and the incentives which will be given to support new aircraft manufacturing, I think this is a given.

circular flexing

Air Canada announced Q1 results this week. They lost $1 billion and are accelerating the retirement of 79 planes, including all 767s and Embraer E190s with the Embraers leaving the fleet immediately. They don't expect passenger numbers to recover for 3 years too.

Nijmegen

Marcusm wrote: »

I'd say it might also be a bit hopeful. Unlike say 9/11 and the Icelandic ash disaster. this has been extended meaning that there has been a significant period of disruption in business travel. This conjoined with low economic outlook means that business travel will continue to be suspended even when there is an effective vaccine (12-18 months by the time it is proven and widely taken up?). The financial crisis did not hit all countries or businesses equally whereas Covid-19 is widely dispersed. I would venture ot say that a lot of businesses and individuals will not have the same appetite for travel within 5 years. There are midlife aricraft which might never fly again. Bearing in mind the number of MAx aircraft etc waiting to be released and the incentives which will be given to support new aircraft manufacturing, I think this is a given.

Nobody can accurately make a prediction about systemic long term changes to the consumption patterns of air travel. It's difficult enough to say when the prior understood behavior will come back if you assume no change to the underlying pattern.

There is a very real risk that businesses decide that travel expenses can be cut back considerably and a significant part of the economic operating model of many large carriers goes out the window.

Funnily enough I suspect consumer demand will come back eventually, after we get sick of staycations and as the virus (please God) becomes a memory.

Icepick

Tenger wrote: »

Saw info from IAG on their quarterly financial results.
They estimate that traffic won’t return to 2019 levels until 2023.
That’s bleak.

That's optimistic. 08 was only an economic crisis and it took 8-10 years.

Blut2

Some positive aviation sector news coming out of China:

The pandemic curve began to flatten in China weeks before the rest of the world entered lockdown. As curbs on internal travel ease and offices reopen, domestic flights are regaining lost ground (see chart). In the first week of May, a holiday in China, capacity was scheduled to be only 10% lower than in the same period a year ago,

Doubters allege that Chinese firms are flying empty planes to boost stated capacity artificially. Yet (self-reported) data from China’s three biggest firms—Air China, China Southern and China Eastern—indicate that the “passenger load factor”, a measure of efficiency, averaged 68% in the first quarter, down from 80-85% in 2019 but still respectable.

https://www.economist.com/business/2020/05/07/chinese-carriers-restart-their-engines

A similar fast domestic at least recovery would bode well for European market focused airlines like FR here at home.

Chris_5339762

That could happen, if European countries remove 14day restrictions. Those are the biggest barrier at the moment. People will accept risks and fly if the flight is cheap enough, but government bans and restrictions are the worst enemy, albeit understandable.

Inquitus

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

That could happen, if European countries remove 14day restrictions. Those are the biggest barrier at the moment. People will accept risks and fly if the flight is cheap enough, but government bans and restrictions are the worst enemy, albeit understandable.

Some people will fly, some people will avoid air travel for the forseeable future as well, no way flight levels return to pre-covid levels until there is a decent therapeutic drug or a vaccine.

WishUWereHere

Blut2 wrote: »

Some positive aviation sector news coming out of China:



https://www.economist.com/business/2020/05/07/chinese-carriers-restart-their-engines

A similar fast domestic at least recovery would bode well for European market focused airlines like FR here at home.

Assuming the attached photo with the article pertains to China today: I notice that all the middle seats are empty. Can't see MO'L being happy with this ( though He may have no choice ). It would still mean ( assuming the middle seats are to be left empty ) that Ryanair will have to increase their prices to offset the lost bum seat. Then again, so will EVERY airline. Also as someone else said, until such time as the 14 day isolation is done away with, I doubt ANYBODY will be keen on hopping on a plane.

Doesn't bode well for flying anytime soon imho.

kona

Icepick wrote: »

That's optimistic. 08 was only an economic crisis and it took 8-10 years.

People seem to forget that the last few years had been absoloutley crazy for airlines, it certainly wasnt normal. It will probably return to a norm a bit quicker.

donkey balls

Heard that Virgin are looking at redundancy not from LIFO process but fleet, Know of l a ad working there and he was telling my mate that a lot of crew are not happy with the process.

California Dreamer

donkey balls wrote: »

Heard that Virgin are looking at redundancy not from LIFO process but fleet, Know of l a ad working there and he was telling my mate that a lot of crew are not happy with the process.

'A lad that knows your mate who told you' :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Jack1985

Icepick wrote: »

That's optimistic. 08 was only an economic crisis and it took 8-10 years.

EI traffic levels after the 08 downturn had recovered to profit by 2010 and growth by 2011 - That was a harsh economic contraction in Ireland. The economy here is very different now.

billy few mates

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Assuming the attached photo with the article pertains to China today: I notice that all the middle seats are empty. Can't see MO'L being happy with this ( though He may have no choice ). It would still mean ( assuming the middle seats are to be left empty ) that Ryanair will have to increase their prices to offset the lost bum seat. Then again, so will EVERY airline. Also as someone else said, until such time as the 14 day isolation is done away with, I doubt ANYBODY will be keen on hopping on a plane.

Doesn't bode well for flying anytime soon imho.

Yup, 25% of Ryanair's income is derived from ancillary revenue, that's tea, coffee, checked baggage, scratch cards, paninis, duty free, priority boarding etc.

Who's going to pay for priority boarding or reserved seating on an aeroplane which is only two thirds full (maximum) where everyone automatically has as an aisle or window seat..?
Who's going to be buying tea, coffee and snacks onboard while at the same time trying to limit physical contact and interaction with other people...?
The only people flying for a while will be those who absolutely have to but they'll be trying to maintain social distancing rather than sitting back enjoying the ride...

cson

Blut2 wrote: »

Some positive aviation sector news coming out of China:



https://www.economist.com/business/2020/05/07/chinese-carriers-restart-their-engines

A similar fast domestic at least recovery would bode well for European market focused airlines like FR here at home.

Lol at trusting any numbers out of China.

Let's see how Oz & NZ go when they get going again.

donkey balls

California Dreamer wrote: »

'A lad that knows your mate who told you' :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Let's just say my mate flies for an Irish airline we did the PPL together all those years ago.His mate is on the 330/340 for virgin and before this crisis happened was going for command.
Another lad he knows lost his job with flybe after just getting command is back in the saddle driving artics.

No.need for the rolley eyes or being a smart ass about it what do you want me to mention his name and the 2 other lads names?

Cookiemunster

donkey balls wrote: »

Let's just say my mate flies for an Irish airline we did the PPL together all those years ago.His mate is on the 330/340 for virgin and before this crisis happened was going for command.
Another lad he knows lost his job with flybe after just getting command is back in the saddle driving artics.

No.need for the rolley eyes or being a smart ass about it what do you want me to mention his name and the 2 other lads names?

The information may well be correct, but when someone says I heard from a friend of a friend, that information will generally be questioned. Whether that's on the internet or in the real world. I not sure how you're surprised by this.

California Dreamer

donkey balls wrote: »

No.need for the rolley eyes or being a smart ass about it what do you want me to mention his name and the 2 other lads names?

There was no need for 3rd hand information. Its things like that that get lost in translation and all of a sudden end up in a tabloid newspaper freaking people out.

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

donkey balls

Cookiemunster wrote: »

The information may well be correct, but when someone says I heard from a friend of a friend, that information will generally be questioned. Whether that's on the internet or in the real world. I not sure how you're surprised by this.

I've been posting on here for a number of years and ye I know the story friends uncles dogs mate line etc.

donkey balls

California Dreamer wrote: »

There was no need for 3rd hand information. Its things like that that get lost in translation and all of a sudden end up in a tabloid newspaper freaking people out.

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

3rd hand info ?

AMKC

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Not sure how much, if any, of this is related to CV 19 though. If in the wrong thread Mods, feel free to move as You please:

https://www.anna.aero/2020/05/05/south-african-airways-to-end-true-independence-clean-balance-sheet-crucial-for-new-airline/

On another note regarding the above article, crazy time to be launching a new airline IMHO.

And then I also see links to Kenyan airways also being in trouble.

I am from Newbridge, and we used to see lots of planes overhead ( always assumed they were heading across the Atlantic ) Now, hardly anything moving, only saw 1 yesterday, and that was way up in the sky, with the trail of smoke visible with the good weather.

I seen that very plane too I am sure. One lone plane flying across he Sky. Where I I used to see army and Rescue helicopters flying over quite low as well as a good few planes. But know you would be lucky to see one a week.
Also that's not smoke its the planes contrail that you are seeing. If it was smoke that would be bad.

basill

donkey balls wrote: »

Let's just say my mate flies for an Irish airline we did the PPL together all those years ago.His mate is on the 330/340 for virgin and before this crisis happened was going for command.
Another lad he knows lost his job with flybe after just getting command is back in the saddle driving artics.

No.need for the rolley eyes or being a smart ass about it what do you want me to mention his name and the 2 other lads names?

UK law is different to Irish in terminating employment.

donkey balls

basill wrote: »

UK law is different to Irish in terminating employment.

Yep I'm well aware of the UK law having worked for some UK PLC they have a habit of saying well we do this on the mainland etc.

Qprmeath

EI talks with unions postponed til early next week.

Foggy43

Just in case this maybe of interest to anyone here, Heathrow Terminal 4 closes tonight. It is temporary but no one has any idea for how long. So it is just Terminal's 2 and 5 operating now.