Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

bk

Masks definitely work, but this is certainly where we start to head into territory where we just don't know.

Are masks enough help to no longer need social distancing or are they only effective as a measure when added on top of social distancing?

For instance wearing a mask while in a supermarket for 30 minutes, while the odd person passes you from time to time within 2 meters versus sitting on a flight to Canaries for 5 hours shoulder to shoulder with two other people.

Nijmegen is right, contract tracing will likely tell us quiet quickly how well it works or not. Hopefully it does work well enough or we could be in serious trouble.

MJohnston

The biggest question for me is - is the demand really there? Yes, lots of people, myself included, are dying for a holiday, but there’s a big difference between having that urge and actually wanting to take the massive risk to do so.

14 days quarantines are becoming much more common in most countries Irish people would visit, and we’ll soon have the same for anyone entering Ireland, including residents.

I just don’t see demand being there before August at the absolute earliest, and if these arrival quarantines remain, as I suspect they will, demand may be years away from returning

Comhrá

MJohnston wrote: »

The biggest question for me is - is the demand really there? Yes, lots of people, myself included, are dying for a holiday, but there’s a big difference between having that urge and actually wanting to take the massive risk to do so.

14 days quarantines are becoming much more common in most countries Irish people would visit, and we’ll soon have the same for anyone entering Ireland, including residents.

I just don’t see demand being there before August at the absolute earliest, and if these arrival quarantines remain, as I suspect they will, demand may be years away from returning

I love a week in Spain or the Canaries any time from Sept - Nov in normal times but I have made up my mind there's just too much uncertainty and risk for this year so I don't care how cheap and enticing the fares, I'm staying put and will make do with a break in Kerry, Mayo or elsewhere. Any pleasure/benefit from a sun hol this year would be outweighed by the anxiety it would give rise to, for me anyway.

trellheim

even if you got a flight are the beaches open at the other end, no cafes, no restaurants, no amusement parks, stay in your apartment you know the drill.

WishUWereHere

MJohnston wrote: »

The biggest question for me is - is the demand really there? Yes, lots of people, myself included, are dying for a holiday, but there’s a big difference between having that urge and actually wanting to take the massive risk to do so.

14 days quarantines are becoming much more common in most countries Irish people would visit, and we’ll soon have the same for anyone entering Ireland, including residents.

I just don’t see demand being there before August at the absolute earliest, and if these arrival quarantines remain, as I suspect they will, demand may be years away from returning

Exactly, We would normally take about 10 mini breaks in a 12 month period including infrequent trips to Old Trafford. When we saw the headlines in The Journal this morning, both my Wife and myself said NO WAY - Earliest flight we will take is 2022. Next year perhaps a holiday in the car & car-ferry to either the UK or France.

Icepick

Jack1985 wrote: »

EI traffic levels after the 08 downturn had recovered to profit by 2010 and growth by 2011 - That was a harsh economic contraction in Ireland. The economy here is very different now.

And it took additional 6 to 8 years to return to the same level.

IngazZagni

I think anyone would be out of their minds to hand over any money to airlines with the way they are treating customers. Wait until there is absolute certainty that the destination you are travelling to is fully open. So in that regard I'll travel abroad later in the year if there are some good last minute deals in near fully open destinations.

Icepick

Masala wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0508/1137343-ryanair-criticises-aircraft-parking-charges-in-dublin/

Ryanair ...have they no shame. Every one else expected to give for FREE and and they with €4bn in the bank. They lucky to find space in DUB..... am sure DAA got plenty of calls from lessors and airlines looking for parking and could have gotten a lot more than €180 a night.

Can’t wait to see how they gonna screw the airports, handling agents, catering supplier etc when they rev up. Not to mention staff.

"it is wrong that state-owned Dublin Airport should be allowed profiteer from customers whose aircraft have been grounded by Government travel bans."

the irony (waiting for my refund)

Tenger wrote: »

Ryanair announce a resumption of 40% of their operation from July 1st.
-All crew and pax to wear masks.
-No queuing for the loo.
-Prepackaged items only for sale.
-Health info and travel history to be provided before check-in.
-No “middle seat empty” policy.

https://www.thejournal.ie/ryanair-returning-from-july-5096784-May2020/


Sounds reasonable to me.
United Airlines have “middle seat empty” as an aim rather than a rule. Only possible once load factor is under 66%.

Allowing people to eat is stupid.
Saliva everywhere and harder to clean.

Ryanair said all surfaces in its cabins will be disinfected every night with chemicals which are effective for more than 24 hours.

Want to touch such chemicals even less than microbes.

AlekSmart

MJohnston wrote: »

The biggest question for me is - is the demand really there? Yes, lots of people, myself included, are dying for a holiday, but there’s a big difference between having that urge and actually wanting to take the massive risk to do so.

14 days quarantines are becoming much more common in most countries Irish people would visit, and we’ll soon have the same for anyone entering Ireland, including residents.

I just don’t see demand being there before August at the absolute earliest, and if these arrival quarantines remain, as I suspect they will, demand may be years away from returning

The nub of the issue.

There appears to be a sense amongst some sectors of the industry that the CV-19 thing has run it's course.

There is now so much information constantly being flung out to us,that as Humans are programmed to do,we will soon start to assess and perhaps decide to take a degree of risk,just as we do at every set of pedestrian traffic lights,as that Truck or Bus approaches.

As with all commercial operations,the ability to read the intentions of your customer base is often the key to being able to cater for it..

Who can say whether the likes of Wizz Air will not have gotten it right ?

https://simpleflying.com/wizz-air-75-seats/

Desperate to be back in the air

Váradi told the BBC that people are now flying to visit relatives or travel to second homes. Some are flying just because they “want to break out of the current lockdown,” he says.

“One of the trends we are sensing is young people want to be back in the air quite quickly,” Váradi adds.

Amid the rising demand, the airline’s boss is frustrated by a lack of common international standards for COVID-19 prevention on aircraft (although IATA recently released some suggestions.) Váradi says that out of the 45 countries Wizz serves, no two countries are applying the same standards – or are interpreting them differently. “It’s a bit of a zoo,” he says.

bk

AlekSmart wrote: »

Who can say whether the likes of Wizz Air will not have gotten it right ?

https://simpleflying.com/wizz-air-75-seats/

Personally I wouldn't be taking any notice of what Airline CEO's are saying. They are all trying desperately to project a certain idea that the worst is over and everyone is going to be crowding back onto aircraft and back to business as usual.

Partly this is to try and pressure governments to lift restrictions like quarantines, partly it is to try and calm the public's nerves and try and convince them to start buying tickets again.

What they say it articles like this and what they know to be true are often very different.

Legally enforced financial fillings often contain the real picture and it looks dire.

MadYaker

Social distancing on a plane is pointless anyway. Everyone is breathing the same air it just gets recycled. One infected person could easily infect an entire aircraft even if only 1 seat per row was full. Flying is going to be risky until we have a vaccine.

Captain_Crash

MadYaker wrote: »

Social distancing on a plane is pointless anyway. Everyone is breathing the same air it just gets recycled. One infected person could easily infect an entire aircraft even if only 1 seat per row was full. Flying is going to be risky until we have a vaccine.

Well not exactly... Despite popular belief, cabin air on a plane is not recycled... its replaced by fresh air via the engines at a constant rate. Or to quantify it, a new cabin of air every 5 mins or so (depending on type).

Inquitus

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Well not exactly... Despite popular belief, cabin air on a plane is not recycled... its replaced by fresh air via the engines at a constant rate. Or to quantify it, a new cabin of air every 5 mins or so (depending on type).

Aye it also goes through HEPA filters.

WishUWereHere

MadYaker wrote: »

Social distancing on a plane is pointless anyway. Everyone is breathing the same air it just gets recycled. One infected person could easily infect an entire aircraft even if only 1 seat per row was full. Flying is going to be risky until we have a vaccine.

Any data to back up your statement here OP?

Nijmegen

https://twitter.com/paulodonoghue93/status/1260258312215498752?s=21

CMO pouring cold water on the idea of a supportive government behind a return to significant flying.

Irish Steve

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Any data to back up your statement here OP?

One asymptomatic person with Covid in South korea last weekend attended a newly reopened Night club. The current number of people infected as a result is so far over 100, and contact tracing is ongoing, so that number may well rise.


A night club is a better air environment than an aircraft.


Masks may help, but they can only do so much, especially if food and drinks are available on the flight.

Cookiemunster

Nijmegen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/paulodonoghue93/status/1260258312215498752?s=21

CMO pouring cold water on the idea of a supportive government behind a return to significant flying.

I doubt Ryanair are too bothered about what Tony Holohan says. Ireland is a small percentage of their passenger numbers. What the larger European countries say is far more important to them.

Nijmegen

Cookiemunster wrote: »

I doubt Ryanair are too bothered about what Tony Holohan says. Ireland is a small percentage of their passenger numbers. What the larger European countries say is far more important to them.

I’d say they’ll be plenty bothered if they’re nixed from operating 150 routes here, 150 routes there, depending on how it goes in various countries. They show pretty consistent defensiveness around the Irish market also.

kona

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Well not exactly... Despite popular belief, cabin air on a plane is not recycled... its replaced by fresh air via the engines at a constant rate. Or to quantify it, a new cabin of air every 5 mins or so (depending on type).

I think you will find that a percentage of it is recycled through filters, into a mixer and back into the cabin depending on the heating requirements and other variables.
The air doesnt just come in and go out.

Tenger

Indeed. Hence the presence of those HEPA filters (at ground level on Airbus)

3 strands here I tbink;
-The airlines want to restart operations, so are trying to put in place a policy to get people booking again. While dealing with multiple national strategies.
-The people themselves, who may be eager to travel or may be very reticent to go back regardless of procedures in place.
-The health services/Govt, who are trying to protect citizens without completely killing their economy.

Beechwoodspark

I will be instructing my colleagues NOT to fly until at least 2022

Carriers be damned

NH2013

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I will be instructing my colleagues NOT to fly until at least 2022

Carriers be damned

Even if there's a vaccine tomorrow?

Chris_5339762

Irish Steve wrote: »

A night club is a better air environment than an aircraft.

I would have said the exact opposite. Aircraft run air through HEPA filters which remove just about every bacteria/virus - same filters as used in ICU. They also bring in fresh air constantly.


Nightclubs on the other hand you're basically breathing in sweat and slime. Much as I want to go properly clubbing again (think Fabric or MOS in London) I'd probably get less sick rolling around in a sewer than I would going to one of them right now.

Tenger

Even the best policy’s (social distancing, air filtration) can be defeated but an ignorant rude asymptomatic carrier who coughs and sneezes and/or touches every possible surface.

Captain_Crash

kona wrote: »

I think you will find that a percentage of it is recycled through filters, into a mixer and back into the cabin depending on the heating requirements and other variables.
The air doesnt just come in and go out.

Well yeah that’s true to a point! but a particle of air that gets refiltered on one cycle will prob not be refiltered on the next cycle but be replaced instead.... so it’s prob accurate to say it’s a whole cabin of new air, especially as the flow is constant.

And sure as mentioned already, Airbus for example use HEPA filters.... you could literally inhale a fart trough one of those and not taste any particles....!

Charles Babbage

Captain_Crash wrote: »

And sure as mentioned already, Airbus for example use HEPA filters.... you could literally inhale a fart trough one of those and not taste any particles....!

That's great gas.


I'd say nightclubs are the less safe environment.

Generally, a drunk party atmosphere is pretty good for spreading a virus.

Gekko

MJohnston wrote: »

The biggest question for me is - is the demand really there? Yes, lots of people, myself included, are dying for a holiday, but there’s a big difference between having that urge and actually wanting to take the massive risk to do so.

Dying for a holiday an unfortunate choice of words there

‪https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/scientists-think-they-know-ways-to-combat-viruses-on-airplanes-theyre-too-late-for-this-pandemic/2020/04/20/83279318-76ab-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html‬;

This suggests the air may be safer on an Airbus than a Boeing

So another reason to avoid Ryanair

Also less likely to get any customer service if anything goes wrong...admittedly not likely much better with any other airline

kona

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Well yeah that’s true to a point! but a particle of air that gets refiltered on one cycle will prob not be refiltered on the next cycle but be replaced instead.... so it’s prob accurate to say it’s a whole cabin of new air, especially as the flow is constant.

And sure as mentioned already, Airbus for example use HEPA filters.... you could literally inhale a fart trough one of those and not taste any particles....!

Its the way the air conditioning system works and its not the case that a new cabin of air is pumped in every 5 minutes. Up to 40% of it is scrubbed through filters, mixed with conditioned air from the packs and distributed into different zones. Only the cockpit zone recieves air that does not contain recirculated air.
I dont know at what point do these HEPA filters become saturated, or start giving diminished returns if even. They are replaced around every 5000fh .

Pat Dunne

kona wrote: »

Its the way the air conditioning system works and its not the case that a new cabin of air is pumped in every 5 minutes. Up to 40% of it is scrubbed through filters, mixed with conditioned air from the packs and distributed into different zones. Only the cockpit zone recieves air that does not contain recirculated air.
I dont know at what point do these HEPA filters become saturated, or start giving diminished returns if even. They are replaced around every 5000fh .

So based on an aircraft flying 12 hours a day 7 days a week that means that the filter is theoretically changed every 15 months. Which in practice would more than likely be very 18 months to 2 years. That a lot of passengers and crew breathing through it.

kona

Pat Dunne wrote: »

So based on an aircraft flying 12 hours a day 7 days a week that means that the filter is theoretically changed every 15 months. Which in practice would more than likely be very 18 months to 2 years. That a lot of passengers and crew breathing through it.

They can obviously be changed earlier at the airlines discretion and some designs have a shorter interval, but generally speaking they have a long interval.