Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

IngazZagni

Many airlines will be using this as an opportunity to completely slash terms and conditions along with pay and will try to lock their staff into these deals until long after things hopefully return to normal.

I've seen offers from 2 other airlines and both are trying to drastically change certain terms to contracts that have no financial benefit to the company. It just gives them more flexibility. Shameful but not surprising in this cut throat industry.

Jack1985

Have to laugh at BA, I know the conditions WW are on haven't seen Euro's T&C's but wouldn't imagine theres much of a signficiant difference to salary.

It's frankly disgusting that they would table that to long serving employees. They continue to show no regard for anyone.

Nijmegen

https://twitter.com/adriancummins/status/1261725298254626816?s=21

Interesting question - if one type of service industry has to do social distancing, why not airlines?

(The answer will be practicality... and as for questions about personal responsibility, unfortunately the virus won’t just affect you).

Blut2

Nijmegen wrote: »

https://twitter.com/adriancummins/status/1261725298254626816?s=21

Interesting question - if one type of service industry has to do social distancing, why not airlines?

(The answer will be practicality... and as for questions about personal responsibility, unfortunately the virus won’t just affect you).

The problem is for the aviation industry 2m separation is completely nonviable. Having an empty middle seat, as the media seemed obsessed with for a while, wouldn't come close to covering that distance - instead on an FR 737 you'd be looking at something like this:

[img][/img]https://i.imgur.com/ctHDFRU.jpg

Only 33 odd seats could be occupied on a plane with a capacity of 297. Thats not going to be remotely economically viable.

This is also leaving aside the very significant problems with distancing for queuing at board, security, check-in etc.

I don't disagree that its completely hypocritical to insist on social distancing for some industries and not others. But the likely outcome here is not aviation being forced to comply with it (because it can't), its that other industries slowly stop following as time goes by (or else just never implement it fully).

Tenger

And the airline industry already has dispensation on certain workplace related rules.
ie. for staff breaks, the aircraft is counted as a vehicle rather than a place of work.

IngazZagni wrote: »

Many airlines will be using this as an opportunity to completely slash terms and conditions along with pay and will try to lock their staff into these deals until long after things hopefully return to normal.

I've seen offers from 2 other airlines and both are trying to drastically change certain terms to contracts that have no financial benefit to the company. It just gives them more flexibility. Shameful but not surprising in this cut throat industry.

Certainly seems to be an attempted smash and grab by BA Mgmt (and those other 2 airlines)
Any MBA with an appetite for promotion in any business will be looking at this pandemic as an opportunity to shine

Nijmegen

Tenger wrote: »

And the airline industry already has dispensation on certain workplace related rules.
ie. for staff breaks, the aircraft is counted as a vehicle rather than a palce of work.

The issue is that the virus either spreads in close contact or it doesn’t. If you assume it does and you put in place all the distancing measures in other settings, you either have to put them in place on airplanes or you quarantine people coming off them. It’s the square peg, round hole the industry can’t get around.

nsa0bupkd3948x

At least on aircraft you can require masks. Not exactly possible in restaurants.

xtradel

The seating plan on Lufthansa flights DUB-FRA show middle seats not available for booking.

BZ

Emirates look as if they are going to permanently park or retire 46 of their A380s. There will more than likely be no second hand market for these aircraft and they are relatively young in terms of aviation. There will of course be big layoffs with an announcement like this. As someone who works in aviation and loves the business its truely heartbreaking to see the effects covid is having on aviation but also the thousands of people who make this industry so great to work in being affected.

https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2020/05/17/exclusive-emirates-to-permanently-decommission-40-of-airbus-a380-fleet-axe-nearly-a-third-of-cabin-crew-and-pilots/

Hubertj

BZ wrote: »

Emirates look as if they are going to permanently park or retire 46 of their A380s. There will more than likely be no second hand market for these aircraft and they are relatively young in terms of aviation. There will of course be big layoffs with an announcement like this. As someone who works in aviation and loves the business its truely heartbreaking to see the effects covid is having on aviation but also the thousands of people who make this industry so great to work in being affected.

https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2020/05/17/exclusive-emirates-to-permanently-decommission-40-of-airbus-a380-fleet-axe-nearly-a-third-of-cabin-crew-and-pilots/

I will miss travelling on emirates a380s. I really like their business class with the bar at the back. Very comfortable on long fliights

Growler!!!

BZ wrote: »

Emirates look as if they are going to permanently park or retire 46 of their A380s. There will more than likely be no second hand market for these aircraft and they are relatively young in terms of aviation. There will of course be big layoffs with an announcement like this. As someone who works in aviation and loves the business its truely heartbreaking to see the effects covid is having on aviation but also the thousands of people who make this industry so great to work in being affected.

https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2020/05/17/exclusive-emirates-to-permanently-decommission-40-of-airbus-a380-fleet-axe-nearly-a-third-of-cabin-crew-and-pilots/

Whats app rumours mention Tuesday as the day for an announcement.

Blut2

Nijmegen wrote: »

The issue is that the virus either spreads in close contact or it doesn’t. If you assume it does and you put in place all the distancing measures in other settings, you either have to put them in place on airplanes or you quarantine people coming off them. It’s the square peg, round hole the industry can’t get around.

Thats not how things are going to work moving forwards, though - its not going to be so black and white. The virus is here to stay, so its more going to be an issue of "what methods can we take to mitigate the spread that aren't too economically damaging". So for example requiring masks on public transport is fine, or asking people to keep a certain distance apart while queuing for coffee, but restricting flights to 10% capacity won't be. As we settle in for the long haul (no pun intended!) every restriction is going to be viewed through the economic damage/quality of life lens.

Nijmegen

Blut2 wrote: »

Thats not how things are going to work moving forwards, though - its not going to be so black and white. The virus is here to stay, so its more going to be an issue of "what methods can we take to mitigate the spread that aren't too economically damaging". So for example requiring masks on public transport is fine, or asking people to keep a certain distance apart while queuing for coffee, but restricting flights to 10% capacity won't be. As we settle in for the long haul (no pun intended!) every restriction is going to be viewed through the economic damage/quality of life lens.

With major variances between countries - for example I can’t see Italy having liberal policies for people coming into the country after the horrific experience they had in their hospitals, while Ireland might take a more liberal attitude on the basis that we can take an uptick in cases in the event X or Y drives them on. Though the theory comes apart if there is major, major upticks - ala South Korea seeing a worrying spike after re opening night clubs - that lead to waves of lockdowns.

It is as you say the fundamental question between virus prevention and economic damage limitation. And a very uncertain world to try to operate in. In my own line I can see how we change today but also see lots of downside risks in the near/medium term that could lead to further job losses etc. Hard to be positive about it but sure look, one foot in front of the other and see how we go...

Blut2

Nijmegen wrote: »

With major variances between countries - for example I can’t see Italy having liberal policies for people coming into the country after the horrific experience they had in their hospitals, while Ireland might take a more liberal attitude on the basis that we can take an uptick in cases in the event X or Y drives them on. Though the theory comes apart if there is major, major upticks - ala South Korea seeing a worrying spike after re opening night clubs - that lead to waves of lockdowns.

It is as you say the fundamental question between virus prevention and economic damage limitation. And a very uncertain world to try to operate in. In my own line I can see how we change today but also see lots of downside risks in the near/medium term that could lead to further job losses etc. Hard to be positive about it but sure look, one foot in front of the other and see how we go...

Italy actually announced this weekend that they're going to be fully open for tourism from June 3rd:

Italy will reopen its borders from June 3 without restrictions as it seeks to further ease its lockdown and restart the eurozone’s third-largest economy. On Saturday the Italian government published a decree that will allow entry in and out of the country and lift all restrictions on internal movement in an attempt to kick-start the tourism industry in time for the summer.

Rome has come under pressure from businesses and regions to restart the economy as quickly as possible.

Mr Conte this week bowed to pressure from the Italian regions and agreed to reopen bars, restaurants and hairdressers on May 18, brought forward from the start of June.

https://www.ft.com/content/967e7168-81a0-4a23-928a-a1440e512b5a

There won't be any quarantine on arrival at all - they're fully open for business from the start of June. Croatia and Slovenia also announced similar this week, but with immediate effect in their cases.

Even in the non-Mediterranean countries borders look like they'll be open from mid-June:

Interior Minister Horst Seehofer of Germany said that together with Austria, France and Switzerland, his country would begin easing border restrictions beginning Saturday[May 16th], with the aim of lifting them entirely by June 15.

“From mid-June we want to see free travel in Europe again,” Mr. Seehofer told reporters. “That is our goal.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/world/europe/coronavirus-europe-vacation.html

The economic pressures to open are very real, and are only building week by week. Its now looking like most of the EU will be open for tourism by mid-June at the latest.

Nijmegen

Blut2 wrote: »

Italy actually announced this weekend that they're going to be fully open for tourism from June 3rd:



https://www.ft.com/content/967e7168-81a0-4a23-928a-a1440e512b5a

There won't be any quarantine on arrival at all - they're fully open for business from the start of June. Croatia and Slovenia also announced similar this week, but with immediate effect in their cases.

Even in the non-Mediterranean countries borders look like they'll be open from mid-June:



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/world/europe/coronavirus-europe-vacation.html

The economic pressures to open are very real, and are only building week by week. Its now looking like most of the EU will be open for tourism by mid-June at the latest.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/europe-plans-a-summer-staycation-after-coronavirus-lockdowns
Big variances - Spain still has a two week quarantine in place, and will do until at least the end of June. France is saying it’s citizens will only be allowed holiday within its borders.

And as South Korea and others have shown, you can open what you like - the virus will then do it’s own thing.

Masala

Blut2 wrote: »

Italy actually announced this weekend that they're going to be fully open for tourism from June 3rd:



https://www.ft.com/content/967e7168-81a0-4a23-928a-a1440e512b5a

There won't be any quarantine on arrival at all - they're fully open for business from the start of June. Croatia and Slovenia also announced similar this week, but with immediate effect in their cases.

Even in the non-Mediterranean countries borders look like they'll be open from mid-June:



https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/world/europe/coronavirus-europe-vacation.html

The economic pressures to open are very real, and are only building week by week. Its now looking like most of the EU will be open for tourism by mid-June at the latest.

But...but... Ireland is going to enforce a 14 day self isolation rule I thought. So what German wants to come to Ireland for 3 day break to get stuck here for 17 days

Blut2

Nijmegen wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/europe-plans-a-summer-staycation-after-coronavirus-lockdowns
Big variances - Spain still has a two week quarantine in place, and will do until at least the end of June. France is saying it’s citizens will only be allowed holiday within its borders.

And as South Korea and others have shown, you can open what you like - the virus will then do it’s own thing.

3 weeks difference between fully opening borders isn't exactly a "big variance". And thats only if Spain sticks to the current schedule, and doesn't speed things up - the way other countries are currently doing.

The virus will absolutely do its own thing, but my point however was more to do with the fact that all these countries are announcing they're fully opening in the very near future (or right now). The widespread predictions of European tourism being closed for the summer, 14 mandatory arrival quarantines all over the continent for months to come etc are ringing pretty hollow.

Masala wrote: »

But...but... Ireland is going to enforce a 14 day self isolation rule I thought. So what German wants to come to Ireland for 3 day break to get stuck here for 17 days

Yeah, we'll very much see about that I'd imagine. Its currently an entirely voluntary, self-enforced quarantine. And it remains to be seen how sustainable even that is once borders are open all over Europe in a few weeks time in June. There will be incredible amounts of pressure from the hospitality, transport and tourism industries in Ireland for us to follow suit.

L1011

Tourists aren't going to want to come here if there's nowhere to stay and nothing to see / do so it's all rather irrelevant

Sheep Shagger

Love MOLs quote from a Bloomberg article in today's Business Post about Luthansa being like the drunk uncle at the end of a wedding.

They can try enforce the 2m rule on planes if they like (government), but air travel will become much more expensive than most of us can ever remember it being, and it will become something solely for the super rich and business travellers.

While I don't really agree with €20 roundtrips to Europe, I'd hate to see it go to the opposite extreme.

fr336

I see Heathrow to Belfast one way this Thursday is £377.00 with aer lingus!!!

smurfjed

They can try enforce the 2m rule on planes if they like (government),

No problem with this provided the government then subsidises the airline for the empty seats.

bk

smurfjed wrote: »

No problem with this provided the government then subsidises the airline for the empty seats.

Why? They either figure out how to operate under health and safety guidelines or not fly.

We don't expect governments to subsidise the oxygen masks on flights or the cabin crews time giving the safety briefing or the millions of other elements required to make flying safe.

Governments set safety requirements and aircraft and airlines either figure out how to fly to those requirements or they don't fly at all.

Having said that, I don't think the 2m is actually needed, as long as mask wearing is properly enforced. And that means no selling food and drinks at all. Masks on at all times in the airport and aircraft.

Jack1985

bk wrote: »

...Having said that, I don't think the 2m is actually needed, as long as mask wearing is properly enforced. And that means no selling food and drinks at all. Masks on at all times in the airport and aircraft.

That's exactly what airlines are going off at the moment along with temperature checks with a hope that through (funded) research Governments relax any appetite to introduce a 2m seperation rule, at the moment its a good will gesture on behalf of airlines to ''block'' the middle seat.

The targeting by RTE amongst others of an EI flight from BHD to LHR raised more questions of those travelling (none of whom were wearing masks) than the airline. Airlines are responsible for safety, but adults are responsible for good hygine and protecting themselves in public too in terms of Health guidance, although safe to say the UK's response has been shody at best in relation to public health guidance.

CNN ran a story a couple of days ago showing the effect a mask has on spreading a viral load, associated risk with a full load showed significantly reduced spread when wearing a mask to minimal levels.

goingnowhere

bk wrote: »

Why? They either figure out how to operate under health and safety guidelines or not fly.

We don't expect governments to subsidise the oxygen masks on flights or the cabin crews time giving the safety briefing or the millions of other elements required to make flying safe.

Governments set safety requirements and aircraft and airlines either figure out how to fly to those requirements or they don't fly at all.

Having said that, I don't think the 2m is actually needed, as long as mask wearing is properly enforced. And that means no selling food and drinks at all. Masks on at all times in the airport and aircraft.

Well you can happily fly without oxygen masks and still comply with the regs, you end up with an altitude limitation

The 'social distance' is a made up thing. The science lacks proper evaluation and is highly specific to the location conditions and is applied differently in different countries, Ireland is 2m, Germany 1.5m.

Now if you issue everyone with a N95 or better mask + a face shield, I'll be on the first flight out of here to a safe country.

Today you can fly to LHR with EI, its 180 seats on a shinny new A321 and few if seats any taken, if anything its safer than travel under 'normal' conditions at the moment.

Jack1985

goingnowhere wrote: »

Well you can happily fly without oxygen masks and still comply with the regs, you end up with an altitude limitation

The 'social distance' is a made up thing. The science lacks proper evaluation and is highly specific to the location conditions and is applied differently in different countries, Ireland is 2m, Germany 1.5m.

Now if you issue everyone with a N95 or better mask + a face shield, I'll be on the first flight out of here to a safe country.

Has been mentioned already that Ireland may progressively reduce required social distancing as required, it was pointed out it is 1m seperation in S.Korea. Ireland currently going of WHO guidance of 2m/6ft.

smurfjed

We don't expect governments to subsidise the oxygen masks on flights or the cabin crews time giving the safety briefing or the millions of other elements required to make flying safe.

None of which impact the airlines revenue so I wouldn’t expect the government to get involved.

Having said that, I don't think the 2m is actually needed,

Has anyone analysed the airflow patterns within various aircraft, would 2 meters be sufficient? Until i see such research I would consider this “requirement” as window dressing!

Cookiemunster

Jack1985 wrote: »

Has been mentioned already that Ireland may progressively reduce required social distancing as required, it was pointed out it is 1m seperation in S.Korea. Ireland currently going of WHO guidance of 2m/6ft.

Actually WHO guidance is only 1m. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Jack1985

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Actually WHO guidance is only 1m. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public

Initally it was 2, as I pointed out this will change (as WHO did) but not reflected in IRL yet.

Tenger

fr336 wrote: »

I see Heathrow to Belfast one way this Thursday is £377.00 with aer lingus!!!

I wondered about booked loads a while back.
If lots of ppl have rebooked does it remove the cheaper fares from flights as the number of available seats are reduced.
Additionally I saw a post online stating that DUB-BOS is showing ully booked on the website, so is this a result of rebookings or are they actually fully booked. (because the flights are definitely not full from what I gather from EI mates)