Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

bk

Jack1985 wrote: »

Quite a statement.

Given that this will all end up costing us far more then €6bn, it is the truth.

Either way the tourist industry is fecked this year. No one in their right mind is going to take a foreign holiday this year. The question now is can we limit the damage to the rest of the economy or not.

ninebeanrows

bk wrote: »

Given that this will all end up costing us far more then €6bn, it is the truth.

Either way the tourist industry is fecked this year. No one in their right mind is going to take a foreign holiday this year. The question now is can we limit the damage to the rest of the economy or not.

Many many people will take a foreign holiday if they are allowed by Harris

bk

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Many many people will take a foreign holiday if they are allowed by Harris

No they won't. I think some people are in deep denial about the reality of this situation. Of course some idiots would, but the vast majority of families aren't going to risk their lives and the potential of getting caught in another lockdown abroad or flights getting cancelled and no refund.

Even if restrictions were lifted, I'd be shocked if tourism wasn't still down 70% or more this year.

TheDriver

bk wrote: »

No they won't. I think some people are in deep denial about the reality of this situation. Of course some idiots would, but the vast majority of families aren't going to risk their lives and the potential of getting caught in another lockdown abroad or flights getting cancelled and no refund.

Even if restrictions were lifted, I'd be shocked if tourism wasn't still down 70% or more this year.

Idiots is a bit harsh. Idiots are people who hug and kiss everyone at moment. People who take a journey abroad with precautions aren't idiots.
Most people booked with Ryanair won't get a refund if flight is still on.

bk

TheDriver wrote: »

Idiots is a bit harsh. Idiots are people who hug and kiss everyone at moment. People who take a journey abroad with precautions aren't idiots.

Anyone who goes on a non-essential travel in the middle of a global pandemic is an idiot in my book.

TheDriver

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Many many people will take a foreign holiday if they are allowed by Harris

I don't think Harris can stop anyone in reality. The only thing he can do at present is make you complete a form on return.
Even cops aren't going to stop you going to airport.

bk

TheDriver wrote: »

I don't think Harris can stop anyone in reality. The only thing he can do at present is make you complete a form on return.
Even cops aren't going to stop you going to airport.

:eek: And it is selfish people who do that, who will cause a second wave of the virus and us all being locked down again, untold damage to the economy and thousands more dead.

TheDriver

bk wrote: »

:eek: And it is selfish people who do that, who will cause a second wave of the virus and us all being locked down again, untold damage to the economy and thousands more dead.

Ah here if we want to talk about selfish people who may cause a second wave, let's start with the very long list of practically most people out and about at house parties, garden parties, hangouts etc. If there's going to be a second wave, it's going to be due to gangs hanging out everywhere before a relatively small number on planes.

Cookiemunster

bk wrote: »

Properly enforced 14 day quarantine for anyone entering the island of Ireland.

It is in as much NI's benefit and interest as it is in ours.

And how to you propose that the NIE imposes a 14 day quarantine on UK citizens traveling from other parts of the UK? Quite simply a Westminster that is easing restrictions will not allow that to happen.

There are also thousands of transport drivers, sailors and pilots entering and leaving the country without any 14 quarantine. These people are not immune to the virus and are not being tested.

We're not and cannot be closed to the virus coming in from abroad.

bk

TheDriver wrote: »

Ah here if we want to talk about selfish people who may cause a second wave, let's start with the very long list of practically most people out and about at house parties, garden parties, hangouts etc. If there's going to be a second wave, it's going to be due to gangs hanging out everywhere before a relatively small number on planes.

Yes, they are all selfish people too, no doubt about it.

This disease is spread in enclosed spaces. Shoulder to shoulder for hours on a plane with recycled air, going to spread the disease. With the original SARS, a lady on a 737 spread it to 22 others passengers on a 2 hour flight, 5 died.

Remember the first cases were brought to Ireland by folks on Ski Holidays in Italy, ignoring the reality of a deadly disease spreading through Italy at the time.

Cookiemunster wrote: »

And how to you propose that the NIE imposes a 14 day quarantine on UK citizens traveling from other parts of the UK? Quite simply a Westminster that is easing restrictions will not allow that to happen.

There are also thousands of transport drivers, sailors and pilots entering and leaving the country without any 14 quarantine. These people are not immune to the virus and are not being tested.

Westminister has imposed their own 14 day quarantine on people entering the UK, with a £1000 fine if found breaking it and also currently say no non-essential travel is allowed.

fr336

bk wrote: »

Remember the first cases were brought to Ireland by folks on Ski Holidays in Italy, ignoring the reality of a deadly disease spreading through Italy at the time.

The same people will do the same this time. It's their world we just live in it.

Cookiemunster

bk wrote: »

Westminister has imposed their own 14 day quarantine on people entering the UK, with a £1000 fine if found breaking it and also currently say no non-essential travel is allowed.

It applies to people entering the UK, not traveling within the UK and it doesn't apply to any of us traveling from Ireland. And they are in the process of easing their internal restrictions.

bk

Cookiemunster wrote: »

It applies to people entering the UK, not traveling within the UK and it doesn't apply to any of us traveling from Ireland. And they are in the process of easing their internal restrictions.

I know and I think we could all be well on our way to making a very deadly and economically damaging mistake.

I really, really hope I'm wrong. Wouldn't it be great if it just fizzles out. But I really fear that I'm right.

smurfjed

Have a look at Flightradar24, worldwide air traffic is increasing, look at Asia, we aren’t hearing of a second wave even with that massive increase in traffic.

HTCOne

bk wrote: »

I know and I think we could all be well on our way to making a very deadly and economically damaging mistake.

I really, really hope I'm wrong. Wouldn't it be great if it just fizzles out. But I really fear that I'm right.

There is no legal way for NI to block movement between themselves and Britain, think of that BHD-LHR flight that was packed to the rafters a couple of weeks ago. Hundreds of essential workers commute between NI and London because of the astronomical rents there, many of them frontline NHS workers. There is simply no way for us to stop this thing getting in via NI.

If the 14 day quarantine requirement is not renewed, and the virus has not resurfaced, I’d seriously consider a week in Spain, Italy etc from maybe August / September onwards IF it wasn’t breaching laws or advice at either end.

Vienna airport will test you on arrival and have your results within 3 hours, Keflavik will do the same from the middle of June. We should be aiming for this, not a blanket 14 day lockdown with zero testing, especially since people can just jump in a taxi or on a bus on arrival, or do whatever the hell they want if travelling to or from NI.

VivaLasBegas

A very good article on how the heavy handed approach from NPHET and government ministers fear of standing up to them. It is a week old now but I think it is very well written, reasoned and logical in it's argument against the path we appear to be trodding.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/our-warped-sense-of-perspective-bodes-ill-for-ireland-s-economy-1.4259285#.XsgEEGV79rk.mailto

Blut2

bk wrote: »

Either way the tourist industry is fecked this year. No one in their right mind is going to take a foreign holiday this year. The question now is can we limit the damage to the rest of the economy or not.

Just because you don't want to travel do not assume the rest of the population feels the same. The data doesn't back that up at all.

Polls show anywhere between 10-30% of the population of most European countries are completely unconcerned with the virus today, and want life to go back to fully normal tomorrow. These people will be more than happy to hop on an underpriced Ryanair flight to Spain on July 1st when the Spanish border are open and Ryanair are running flights again. And as time goes by more and more of the population will join them.

Flight bookings are already rapidly returning to normal in Asia:

The pandemic curve began to flatten in China weeks before the rest of the world entered lockdown. In the first week of May, a holiday in China, capacity was scheduled to be only 10% lower than in the same period a year ago

Doubters allege that Chinese firms are flying empty planes to boost stated capacity artificially. Yet data from China’s three biggest firms—Air China, China Southern and China Eastern—indicate that the “passenger load factor”, a measure of efficiency, averaged 68% in the first quarter, down from 80-85% in 2019 but still respectable.

And America:

After more than two months of minimal business due to the coronavirus pandemic, Southwest Airlines says more customers are booking flights in May than are canceling. According to a regulatory filing by the carrier, load factors have risen to 25-30 percent in the month of May, over a dismal April load factor of 8 percent.

Southwest is planning major increases in seat capacity for June and July. The airline is scheduling about 2.1 million seats a week in June, up from 1.5 million in the middle of May.

The same will happen in Europe.

https://www.businesstravelerusa.com/business-traveler-usa-story/for-southwest-bookings-beat-cancellations-in-may
https://www.economist.com/business/2020/05/07/chinese-carriers-restart-their-engines

Blut2

Another positive update on the aviation sector's recovery today, this time in Europe:

By last Thursday [May 28th] Ryanair had sold 30 per cent of its July seats, compared to 60 per cent at the same time last year

http://cf.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/EZSv_pqX0AALf4a-1.jpg

Obviously thats not a good/"normal" load factor - and its on a reduced schedule of flights - but considering its still only May, and travel restrictions are only beginning to ease/public sentiment improve, thats surprisingly high. A very far cry from "no one in their right mind taking a foreign holiday this year".

It bodes well for very well tourism this summer in Europe.

The only thing preventing me from booking a flight to visit Ireland so that I can meet friends and family is that the Government are making it clear that I'm not welcome.

TheDriver

Blut2 wrote: »

Another positive update on the aviation sector's recovery today, this time in Europe:



http://cf.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/EZSv_pqX0AALf4a-1.jpg

Obviously thats not a good/"normal" load factor - and its on a reduced schedule of flights - but considering its still only May, and travel restrictions are only beginning to ease/public sentiment improve, thats surprisingly high. A very far cry from "no one in their right mind taking a foreign holiday this year".

It bodes well for very well tourism this summer in Europe.

I'm wondering will we see loads far less than the book seats though. Take a flight to alicante. A good number of seats were booked by start of march by families who have planned their summer hols during the winter. Now that the flight is operating, there is no refund but the family may choose not the travel.
I'm also surprised that 60% is normal booking load at this time of year, thought it would be more.

IngazZagni

July is peak season. I would have thought 30% of seats would be sold months in advance. I’d wager the bulk of that was booked before the pandemic and thus many of those ticket holders would have no intention of travelling. I’m also surprised a large chunk of July seats are sold so close to the travel date.

TheDriver

IngazZagni wrote: »

July is peak season. I would have thought 30% of seats would be sold months in advance. I’d wager the bulk of that was booked before the pandemic and thus many of those ticket holders would have no intention of travelling. I’m also surprised a large chunk of July seats are sold so close to the travel date.

I wonder if the overall vs specific routes is worth taking into account. I'm thinking the family hol Spanish routes would have higher bookings and then other backpacker/last minute type of hols such as city breaks or places with many flights e.g. berlin or paris would have lower bookings far in advance.

Nijmegen

I think you have to separate the aviation and tourism industry impact a little. Last year Irish people took 8.8 million trips abroad and we had 10.8 million trips into the country, according to the CSO. About 800k trips abroad in July and 1.1m in.

The big domestic tourism question is whether or not a major proportion of those outward trips that are holidays will be taken domestically in 2020. There’s other data showing there’s a lot of enforced savings going on among many households, and so while the total economic pie here and elsewhere will be smaller there will also be pent up demand.

I’d much sooner drive to Kerry from Dublin than fly to Spain, personally.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ot/overseastraveldecember2019/

The question of Ryanair and others potentially not cleaning aircraft between every flight I’d say will become a mandated issue over time. It’s a “won’t” not “can’t” issue.

Micky 32

TheDriver wrote: »

Idiots is a bit harsh. Idiots are people who hug and kiss everyone at moment. People who take a journey abroad with precautions aren't idiots.
Most people booked with Ryanair won't get a refund if flight is still on.

Let’s not forget about the “idiots” that have family abroad who can’t see them. :rolleyes:

AlekSmart

VivaLasBegas wrote: »

A very good article on how the heavy handed approach from NPHET and government ministers fear of standing up to them. It is a week old now but I think it is very well written, reasoned and logical in it's argument against the path we appear to be trodding.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/our-warped-sense-of-perspective-bodes-ill-for-ireland-s-economy-1.4259285#.XsgEEGV79rk.mailto

I was struck by two paragraphs in the article,which appear accurate enough when reviewing threads like this one...

After months of conditioning from Holohan and others, justified by the scale of the threat, too many of us are still locked in a state of fear that has skewed our sense of how to sensibly mitigate risk.

Some people crave such over-reaction to assuage their biting fear. But putting our fingers in our ears and chanting “save lives, save lives, save lives” does not justify every draconian proposal, no matter how well-intentioned.

It is clear at this juncture,that the hunger for a return to normality,however new,is very real and increasing in intensity each day.

There is a realization that Life carries on,and that once recognised,and prepared for,COVID19 will just have to be left out there as not a pleasant thing to catch,but yet something which will not Kill most people.

Irelands population continues to grow and Covid19 is not putting too much of a stop to that....

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ireland-population/

4,933,286. today,with the projected increase being c.55,000 by end of year...all individuals pinning their hopes,dreams and futures on Ireland Teo as their home base.

Covid19 is being dealt with,as Science Worldwide puts undreamed of resources and efforts into researching it's ass off....all of this will produce some response,be it a vaccine or any one of thousands of other lesser medicines.

As for the rest of us,those who crave 100% Bio-secure environments may well have to source and fund that colony for themselves,whilst the remainder of us get on with "Lookin after bidness".

Tenzor07

Aviation/Leisure travel still has to start making its slow crawl back to some sort of operating normality, not to mention restarting Business travel.

Masks, temperature checks, airport testing and social responsibility will all play a massive role in getting those of us who want to travel back in the air.

Personally I will wait until September at the earliest to travel by air depending, still a risk of national/regional lockdowns being reimposed in the various countries and cancellation of flights due to that.

As for tourists coming to Ireland, we should do what Spain/Italy/Greece are doing in creating travel bridges between countries with low infection rates. And we need to do this by July.

HTCOne

The virus is in circulation, it cannot be wiped out unless there is a vaccine, which may never happen. We’re going to have to get used to that fact. Keep sensible precautions by all means, such as masks in confined spaces, social distancing wherever possible, hand washing etc. At some stage we have to just tell those who are vulnerable: “folks, you need to be really really careful, here’s how......” and the rest of us who it’s looking like there’s only a 50/50 chance we’ll suffer any symptoms at all, let alone serious ones, need to get back to normality.

Holohan has been extremely conservative, and fair play to him, he’s a doctor and the health of the populace is his #1 concern, and he has to protect a joke of a health service that is brought to the brink of collapse by seasonal flu most years. His concerns now need to be balanced against economic and social ones.

Tenzor07

I don't have full access to the article, but I like how it starts:


https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/no-new-surge-in-ireland-and-its-safe-to-fly-says-nobel-scientist-39247207.html

TheDriver

Tenzor07 wrote: »

I don't have full access to the article, but I like how it starts:


https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/no-new-surge-in-ireland-and-its-safe-to-fly-says-nobel-scientist-39247207.html

He seems to be very good on predictions.

Cosmo Kramer

Blut2 wrote: »

Another positive update on the aviation sector's recovery today, this time in Europe:



http://cf.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/EZSv_pqX0AALf4a-1.jpg

Obviously thats not a good/"normal" load factor - and its on a reduced schedule of flights - but considering its still only May, and travel restrictions are only beginning to ease/public sentiment improve, thats surprisingly high. A very far cry from "no one in their right mind taking a foreign holiday this year".

It bodes well for very well tourism this summer in Europe.

Given that this will include people who booked flights and summer holidays last winter, people who rebooked for July due to the difficulty of getting a refund for flights originally booked for March to June dates and given that it applies to a significantly reduced schedule, I don't actually think this is a particularly encouraging number at all.

It suggests that there have been extremely few recent bookings that weren't date changes for previously cancelled flights.