Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Sheep Shagger

Thought Aer Lingus regional had problems. International Aer Lingus flights due to restart mid July.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/91893-stobart-air-to-resume-intl-aer-lingus-regional-ops-in-3q20

L1011

Sheep Shagger wrote: »

Thought Aer Lingus regional had problems. International Aer Lingus flights due to restart mid July.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/91893-stobart-air-to-resume-intl-aer-lingus-regional-ops-in-3q20

They do, there's been a change of ownership amongst other things - but if they can make (or lose less) money flying they're going to. Which is why they're still operating domestic currently.

stephenjmcd

New measures coming in at Dublin Airport from June 16th
https://www.dublinairport.com/latest-news/2020/02/27/covid-19-update

AlekSmart

stephenjmcd wrote: »

New measures coming in at Dublin Airport from June 16th
https://www.dublinairport.com/latest-news/2020/02/27/covid-19-update

At least it is direct evidence of a move towards movement restarting.

Yet,I keep referring to the tail-piece on each days Press Releases on the Media....

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0611/1146741-covid19-ireland/

Around 80% of cases of Covid-19 will be a mild to moderate illness, close to 14% have severe disease and around 6% are critical.

Generally, you need to be 15 minutes or more in the vicinity of an infected person and within two metres of them, to be considered at-risk, or a close contact.

Something does'nt quite add up in much of this Pandemic.....

Cookiemunster

AlekSmart wrote: »

Something does'nt quite add up in much of this Pandemic.....

What doesn't add up? The 15min within 2m thing has been the advice since last March. Most people though for some reason think it's 2m full stop, with no time limit.

The stats on how the disease affects people have been around since March too.

Tenger

AlekSmart wrote: »

............

Something does'nt quite add up in much of this Pandemic.....

I've had to explain this quite a few times.

Yes, the virus isn't that much of a threat to fit, healthy people with robust immune system. CFR is only 5%. Chances are you may not even know you had it. Well done to you.

But the threat isn't just to individuals, it to the health infrastructure and the society itself.

The 20% who require hospitalisation are a threat to health infrastructure. They aren't just sitting in bed. They are 24 hour intensive care patients. Requiring O2 supply and monitoring, and ventilators (with trained staff) in the worse cases. These resources are scarce and hard/expensive to source and restock.

These hospitalised patients then present a further threat, to other patients and medical staff. Staff must take precautions when dealing with them, which impacts medical resources and other patients.

So far the virus appears to impact the elderly much more than others. Obviously this is influenced by generally weaker immune systems of older people. But it could actually be a different reasons. This is "an unknown virus" (stats from Italy appear to show higher testosterone to be a factor in infection, why may explain the lower rate in kids)
By this time next year science may fully understand this virus and realise that some precautions were wrong (or spot on)

Historically quarantine and creation of a 'cordon sanitaire' could stop viral outbreaks in cities and nations. With modern globalisation and an omnipresent aviation industry this is very hard. Even more do with a virus that does not manifest itself for up to 12 days after infection.

The unknown is the biggest problem here. The Flu outbreak of 1918-20 is our most recent pandemic. (1st noted in US Army recruits in Arkansas in 1917)So we must use it as an example.

Blut2

Tenger wrote: »

Yes, the virus isn't that much of a threat to fit, healthy people with robust immune system. CFR is only 5%. Chances are you may not even know you

Just on this - the CFR is now regarded as being quite misleading to use, because so many people who have milder cases of the virus don't get tested. The IFR is much more accurate when trying to accurately assess the "risk". This spreadsheet shows the data from 60+ studies that have now been carried out on it, and links to them:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/htmlview?pru=AAABchM1MrM*aJ5Rxb9kousGZwDSuLVUvQ#gid=0

And gives an IFR of only 0.38% - quite comparable to a "bad flu" year of 0.30%.

And that would still be heavily focused within the at risk population - over 70s, obese people, or those with serious underlying health conditions (cancer etc). As of the start of June Ireland had only had 13 deaths total for otherwise healthy individuals under 65 - essentially the same as one bad multi-car crash, or one tenth of our yearly deaths from drowning etc. Yet nobody is telling the entire country to stay out of water or never to drive anywhere.

I don't think anyone is arguing that the at risk population isn't in danger - just that for the rest of the population we now have enough science to show that theres no point in locking them up any more, and destroying the global economy in the process.

Thats why we're now seeing a rush to open up in almost every country, because the more studies that come out the more we're seeing this just isn't a serious health risk to healthy adults. It makes far more sense to focus resources on protecting/isolating only those actually at risk.

On an aviation note it bodes extremely well for a much sooner return to a level of normal than a lot of people expected. In Ireland you can notice how Simon Harris' prediction of "no international in 2020" a few weeks ago has now become "international travel within a few weeks" from Varadkar & Heather Humphreys etc. But even more notably across Europe borders are now either fully open already, or are going to be by July 1st almost everywhere. And more and more planes are back in the air each week. Its great to see.

Captain_Crash

Tenger wrote: »

The unknown is the biggest problem here. The Flu outbreak of 1918-20 is our most recent pandemic. (1st noted in US Army recruits in Arkansas in 1917)So we must use it as an example.

This is the 11th pandemic to reach Europe since Spanish Flu, and the 5th “flu like”virus (and third of the 21st century).

And while the number who have died with the virus is high, as of yet it isn’t the worst experienced. I actually read the other day that the number of deaths registered in April 2020 is similar to the number registered in Jan 2018, which was a particularly bad flu season here.

Anyway off topic but just touching on the most recent pandemic comment.

stephenjmcd

Irish times reporting no decision on non essential travel today but memo to cabinet excepting it to be dropped on the 29th June for start of phase 3

Tenger

Captain_Crash wrote: »

This is the 11th pandemic to reach Europe since Spanish Flu, and the 5th “flu like”virus (and third of the 21st century).
......

Quite true.
But off the top of my head only the outbreak in 1957(?) had a global outbreak.
SARS, Swine flu, MERS, H1N1 have been serious epidemics and threatening. But relatively minor in "global reach" to Covid.
My understanding of the current situation is that infectious rate, slow onset of symptoms, interconnected globe and lack of prior knowledge give this pandemic more weight in terms of mortality on humans.


I'm now off to research "20th century pandemics", so I may be editing this!!!!

Widdensushi

World population only reached 2 billion in 1930,we are heading for 8 billion now, a lot more people and travel to carry and spread a virus

Captain_Crash

Tenger wrote: »

Quite true.
But off the top of my head only the outbreak in 1957(?) had a global outbreak.
SARS, Swine flu, MERS, H1N1 have been serious epidemics and threatening. But relatively minor in "global reach" to Covid.
My understanding of the current situation is that infectious rate, slow onset of symptoms, interconnected globe and lack of prior knowledge give this pandemic more weight in terms of mortality on humans.


I'm now off to research "20th century pandemics", so I may be editing this!!!!

Swine flu certainly reached here.... I had it haha, I think it had nearly 1 billion cases worldwide but I’m open to correction, (on mobile now but will google later)

AlekSmart

Blut2 wrote: »

Just on this ....SNIP/

And gives an IFR of only 0.38% - quite comparable to a "bad flu" year of 0.30%.

And that would still be heavily focused within the at risk population - over 70s, obese people, or those with serious underlying health conditions (cancer etc). As of the start of June Ireland had only had 13 deaths total for otherwise healthy individuals under 65 - essentially the same as one bad multi-car crash, or one tenth of our yearly deaths from drowning etc. Yet nobody is telling the entire country to stay out of water or never to drive anywhere.

I don't think anyone is arguing that the at risk population isn't in danger - just that for the rest of the population we now have enough science to show that theres no point in locking them up any more, and destroying the global economy in the process.

Thats why we're now seeing a rush to open up in almost every country, because the more studies that come out the more we're seeing this just isn't a serious health risk to healthy adults. It makes far more sense to focus resources on protecting/isolating only those actually at risk.

On an aviation note it bodes extremely well for a much sooner return to a level of normal than a lot of people expected. In Ireland you can notice how Simon Harris' prediction of "no international in 2020" a few weeks ago has now become "international travel within a few weeks" from Varadkar & Heather Humphreys etc. But even more notably across Europe borders are now either fully open already, or are going to be by July 1st almost everywhere. And more and more planes are back in the air each week. Its great to see.

Whilst the Scientific "community" are on a steep learning curve in relation to CV19,so to are the general public slowly learning that this Scientific Community in itself,is riven asunder with differences of opinion,plain old jealousy,and,occasionally a reluctance to consider any single previously held opinion as perhaps being Wrong.

The UK,had it's moments of dark foreboding in early March led,at least media wise,by Prof Neil Ferguson (he who resigned after hosting his married lover during lockdown),a man with form in the gloom business (BSE,Avian Flu,Swine flu) who is now apparently back in the fold and appearing before Parliamentary committee's and such like.

Prof Ferguson was,it appears,supported in his Lockdown thinking by another senior Imperial College Professor,Stephen Riley who,as of 9th March,was predicting a UK death toll of 1,700,000 if Lockdown was not immediately imposed..

I was struck by the definition of "Following the Science" offered by journalist Ross Clark writing in The Spectator.....

It doesn’t get any easier for governments trying to follow ‘the science’. It is rather like trying to follow a roomful of household flies buzzing off in all directions. Those of us who are not in government can be thankful we aren’t making the decisions.

A somewhat accurate situation at the moment,I suspect......who'd want a Cabinet Position these days ??

fr336

If the UK hadn't locked down we'd be past 100k deaths by now. Just my opinion.

AlekSmart

fr336 wrote: »

If the UK hadn't locked down we'd be past 100k deaths by now. Just my opinion.

You could be right....or then again,You could be wrong..?

That's what it comes down to...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq7JSic1DtM

fr336

AlekSmart wrote: »

You could be right....or then again,You could be wrong..?

That's what it comes down to...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq7JSic1DtM

Officially we are at over 40,000 deaths. Taking ONS data, it's more like 50-60,000. And the virus was only just getting going. It's not far fetched to say that given another few weeks in a densely populated country of 65 million, it could easily get over 100,000 as the spread was then unstoppable. Lockdown stopped the spread and put things in a bottle to a degree.

Blut2

In a lot less positive, local aviation, news:

Aer Lingus is to cut the pay and working hours of staff to less than 50 per cent of their pre-coronavirus pandemic levels following the failure of workers to meet the airline’s deadline to accept its workplace reform programme.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-to-cut-staff-pay-working-hours-to-less-than-half-pre-covid-levels-1.4279945

My sympathies to any of the EI staff on here. Hopefully a less severe deal is worked out quickly.

Jacovs

Blut2 wrote: »

In a lot less positive, local aviation, news:



https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-to-cut-staff-pay-working-hours-to-less-than-half-pre-covid-levels-1.4279945

My sympathies to any of the EI staff on here. Hopefully a less severe deal is worked out quickly.

How does this work if you have a contract stating an hourly rate and a minimum amount of hours? Not EI specific.

trellheim

Are carriers adopting distancing on their services ? I was talking to someone who came up on the Cork train last night and it was one person per table of 4

( Yes I know a train and an aircraft are not the same ). Just trying to get an inkling of what is the case , can't see more than 20 or 30 on an a320 or 738 if that's the case

goingnowhere

Full house onboard

Masks mandatory, seat belt sign on the whole way. Good chance of temperature checks on entering airport

cson

UA Newark route not coming back to SNN next year according to their Twitter.

Seemingly AA & DL have confirmed they'll return in 2021, though I'm puzzled as to what AA will use for that mission given they've retired the 757.

Tenger

trellheim wrote: »

Are carriers adopting distancing on their services ? I was talking to someone who came up on the Cork train last night and it was one person per table of 4...........

US carriers are limiting bookings on domestic flights to 66% of capacity.
Don't think any Euro airlines following suit.

HTCOne

cson wrote: »

UA Newark route not coming back to SNN next year according to their Twitter.

Seemingly AA & DL have confirmed they'll return in 2021, though I'm puzzled as to what AA will use for that mission given they've retired the 757.

Allegedly AA will be a 5 x weekly B787-8 on PHL. I’d take everything with a pinch of salt right now, especially from AA, as when the CARES Act expires in October, their own shareholders have been saying they expect them to enter Chapter 11. The 757s, 767s are gone, as are the A330s most likely.

United are another to watch. 757s gone, the premium heavy 767-300s will likely remain as they have been configured almost exclusively for LHR, but then again business travel might be slow to recover. Anyway with EWR and SFO out of DUB already on 787s, that leaves ORD and IAD on the same or 767-400s, if those 2 routes return at all.

trellheim

US carriers are limiting bookings on domestic flights to 66% of capacity.
Don't think any Euro airlines following suit.

so every middle seat free on US ....

Cosmo Kramer

cson wrote: »

UA Newark route not coming back to SNN next year according to their Twitter.

Seemingly AA & DL have confirmed they'll return in 2021, though I'm puzzled as to what AA will use for that mission given they've retired the 757.

It's a long way off to be confirming anything for 2021. If SNN even manage to get one out of American, Delta and United back by next summer they'll be doing well I think.

cson

HTCOne wrote: »

Allegedly AA will be a 5 x weekly B787-8 on PHL. I’d take everything with a pinch of salt right now, especially from AA, as when the CARES Act expires in October, their own shareholders have been saying they expect them to enter Chapter 11. The 757s, 767s are gone, as are the A330s most likely.

Whatever they start using on PHL-SJU rotations would be the indicator I'd guess, though everything they have is overspecced for SNN right now. DL ran a 764 to SNN previously if I recall correctly, closest to that would be the A332s should they bring them back.

There's going to be a pretty material down tick in US based visitors outside of the impact of COVID I reckon, the Fed is in the process of effectively debasing the currency so Europe will be much more expensive to visit for Americans.

HTCOne wrote: »

United are another to watch. 757s gone, the premium heavy 767-300s will likely remain as they have been configured almost exclusively for LHR, but then again business travel might be slow to recover. Anyway with EWR and SFO out of DUB already on 787s, that leaves ORD and IAD on the same or 767-400s, if those 2 routes return at all.

Anecdotally load factors for both carriers on DUB-IAD hae always been super strong, so it wouldn't surprise me if UA put a 763 on it.

Sheep Shagger

One way for Etihad to drum up business for the next 2 years.

Buy a voucher now valid up to 2 years and they add 50% of its value for free.

Obviously you risk the airline going bust but that's unlikely in this case.

donkey balls

With EI having pax wearing face mask up to the 31st August, And in flight services suspended on euro routes is there a time line for the reintroduction of in flight services?

goingnowhere

Face mask wearing is likely to persist for sometime.

I will miss the chicken and stuffing sandwich.

HTCOne

goingnowhere wrote: »

Face mask wearing is likely to persist for sometime.

I will miss the chicken and stuffing sandwich.

The ham and very cheesy toastie was another good’un.