Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

HTCOne

L1011 wrote: »

Realistically, we have had what appear to be proportionally high levels of deaths here because we're not lying through our teeth like lots of other countries are. Even the UK.

Exactly. Our reports are 100% transparent. If I have a stroke/heart attack etc and test positive in the hospital and die, I'm listed as a Covid death, regardless of what killed me. This is to assist experts in tracing the movement of the virus in future so those same experts can better plan and mitigate in future. In many countries I would not be listed as a Covid death.

Tenzor07

dfx- wrote: »

Realistically, the virus was in Ireland long before anyone locked down or showed symptoms, probably in January. Blaming aviation or airport procedures in March is pointless.

Exactly, it's up to Governments to control the borders and movements of people, not Aer Lingus or Ryanair...

MickeyLeari

HTCOne wrote: »

Exactly. Our reports are 100% transparent. If I have a stroke/heart attack etc and test positive in the hospital and die, I'm listed as a Covid death, regardless of what killed me. This is to assist experts in tracing the movement of the virus in future so those same experts can better plan and mitigate in future. In many countries I would not be listed as a Covid death.

Did someone die with Covid or of Covid? Or is there generally a hierarchy of factors? I genuinely don’t know.

MickeyLeari

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Exactly, it's up to Governments to control the borders and movements of people, not Aer Lingus or Ryanair...

It is up to this Government working together and in sync with other our fellow EU member states to control the borders and movement of people.

HTCOne

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Did someone die with Covid or of Covid? Or is there generally a hierarchy of factors? I genuinely don’t know.

I believe we are reporting Covid related, ie with Covid as per WHO guidelines. Many countries are reporting only "of Covid"....so if you have say heart disease and die with Covid, you aren't included in countries reporting "of Covid". Doing that opens the local government up to more potential criticism, so in fairness we are being transparent. If I flip my car and subsequently die of my injuries, but test positive in the meantime, it means it can be investigated how I may have gotten it and better mitigate future waves or pandemics by those who know how to do such things. If I am not included, that becomes all the harder for those experts, hence why academics are placing so much emphasis on "excess deaths" reports, as not all countries are reporting as per WHO guidelines.

bk

HTCOne wrote: »

Exactly. Our reports are 100% transparent. If I have a stroke/heart attack etc and test positive in the hospital and die, I'm listed as a Covid death, regardless of what killed me. This is to assist experts in tracing the movement of the virus in future so those same experts can better plan and mitigate in future. In many countries I would not be listed as a Covid death.

It depends on the circumstances of your death. Covid19 can actually cause you to suffer from heart failure, even if your heart was perfectly healthy beforehand. In the case you would be counted as a COVID19 death. You would be marked down as something like heart failure caused by COVID19 infection.

Covid19 actually kills you via a variety of different complications on your body, multi-organ failure, septic shock, respiratory failure, heart failure, blood clots, strokes, seizures. It really has a very nasty impact on your body.

It is a similar way to AIDS/HIV deaths are reported. It doesn't directly kill you, but it destroys your immune system, which allows you to get infections that wouldn't hurt another person, but that easily kill someone with it.

On the other hand, if you die in a car crash, while you have Covid19, you'd be marked down as a Covid19 infection, but not a Covid19 death.

Tenger

This methodology (of reporting all positive tests even if they died of other causes) unfortunately is feeding the tinfoil hat brigade into claiming its "hoax plandemic"

bk

Tenger wrote: »

This methodology (of reporting all positive tests even if they died of other causes) unfortunately is feeding the tinfoil hat brigade into claiming its "hoax plandemic"

You get Covid19, which then does terrible damage to your lungs and heart, which in turn kills you. Of course the cause is Covid19.

Van.Bosch

bk wrote: »

You get Covid19, which then does terrible damage to your lungs and heart, which in turn kills you. Of course the cause is Covid19.

Don’t think anyone is saying it isn’t, what they are saying is if someone has a week to live in a hospice and then gets very mild Covid, they will be counted as a Covid death.

HTCOne

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Don’t think anyone is saying it isn’t, what they are saying is if someone has a week to live in a hospice and then gets very mild Covid, they will be counted as a Covid death.

Exactly, and doing that is as per WHO guidelines, which we are best in class in complying with. Problem is when we are compared with countries who report differently. Very few countries are being as transparent as we are.

AlekSmart

Tenger wrote: »

This methodology (of reporting all positive tests even if they died of other causes) unfortunately is feeding the tinfoil hat brigade into claiming its "hoax plandemic"

True,to a point...but as you alluded to earlier in thread,our National Covid19 response does appear to have been appropriate.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0624/1149433-covid-ireland-update/

As of midnight on 21 June, 92% of all confirmed cases to date are estimated to have recovered from the disease.

So,is the general population to view these statistics with dismay or disappointment ?

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

Total Tests Completed
408,344

Total Positive Tests
28,504

Positive Rate (%)
7

All Tests Completed
Tests Completed
3,253

in last 24 Hours
Tests Completed
18,293

What have we been doing SO wrong that has led us to this place ?

Charles Babbage

bk wrote: »

It depends on the circumstances of your death. Covid19 can actually cause you to suffer from heart failure, even if your heart was perfectly healthy beforehand. In the case you would be counted as a COVID19 death. You would be marked down as something like heart failure caused by COVID19 infection.

A 48 year old man died couple of days ago in Singapore of heart failure, having been declared free of Covid recently. Now, he wasn't recorded as a Covid death but you have to wonder whether he might not have survived for years if he had not got Covid.

bk

HTCOne wrote: »

Exactly, and doing that is as per WHO guidelines, which we are best in class in complying with. Problem is when we are compared with countries who report differently. Very few countries are being as transparent as we are.

Depends which country you are comparing to. If you are comparing cases to countries with very few cases, like Czech Republic, Taiwan, etc. where they have a factor of 10 to 30 less deaths, the factor of difference is so massive, that even if you want to add in another say 40 to 60% of deaths, it would make little practical difference.

For example, Taiwan has had a total of 7 deaths! Even if they are under-reporting by 50%, that is still really only 10 to 11 deaths, total! It makes little difference.

It is countries with lots of cases and poor containment and test and tracking procedures, like US, Brazil, Russia, maybe UK to a certain extent, that I would be suspecting deaths are actually much higher.

BTW the best way to find out the real figures is to look at the total all cause mortality rate over the last few months, versus the same period over the last 5 years. That gives you the most accurate picture.

Inquitus

bk wrote: »

BTW the best way to find out the real figures is to look at the total all cause mortality rate over the last few months, versus the same period over the last 5 years. That gives you the most accurate picture.

Yep, excess mortality versus established baselines for the past 4-5 years is by far the best way to measure the impact of Covid on mortality.

bk

Charles Babbage wrote: »

A 48 year old man died couple of days ago in Singapore of heart failure, having been declared free of Covid recently. Now, he wasn't recorded as a Covid death but you have to wonder whether he might not have survived for years if he had not got Covid.

Definitely there is a lot of medical literature popping up on this topic. People even in the 20 to 40's have been suffering various heart failure weeks after recovering from Covid19.

Nijmegen

Ultimately the deaths will be measured after the fact using metrics like expected deaths and excess deaths to work out a basis to adjudge how countries did versus one another.

Meanwhile, the US is exploding with Corona cases again. Reading about a children’s hospital in Texas taking adults now because the system is at capacity.

https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/1275922774603825153?s=21

MickeyLeari

Charles Babbage wrote: »

A 48 year old man died couple of days ago in Singapore of heart failure, having been declared free of Covid recently. Now, he wasn't recorded as a Covid death but you have to wonder whether he might not have survived for years if he had not got Covid.

And sometimes people in their 30’s, 40’s and 50’s die of heart failure.

Captain_Crash

Guys... despite my delusions of grandeur, I’m not a mod.... but can we keep this on topic maybe?

smurfjed

Interesting video about how Emirates have turned some 777 into freighters

‪ https://twitter.com/arabnews/status/1276052398113464321/video/1‬

Growler!!!

smurfjed wrote: »

Interesting video about how Emirates have turned some 777 into freighters

‪ https://twitter.com/arabnews/status/1276052398113464321/video/1‬

https://www.skycargo.com/media-centre/emirates-offers-additional-cargo-capacity-on-aircraft-with-modified-economy-class-cabins/

Makes sense, its where the money is at these days. They can carry an extra 17 tonnes in the cabin along with 40-50 tonnes in the holds.

Nijmegen

I wonder will there be a ^ shaped boom for the cargo industry. Reading about cargo airlines rapidly trying to increase capacity but on the other hand, how much of the "just in time" air freight capacity will be needed if Covid subsides or the supply chain becomes more regularised? Right now we're paying top dollar to get PPE flown in because we're burning through mountains of it every week... But according to the CEO of the HSE for example, we're down about 96% from peak on hospital admitted covid patients. Now, we're probably still using a lot of PPE because even going to get your hair done will be like doing a day surgery apparently with PPE involved, but a lot of our required supplies will be moving over to the container ships as that sort of demand is going to be more predictable and long term - ie, once the ships start docking with far more PPE in their bellies than aircraft can carry, the need to do the air bridge ends. The unit cost of getting PPE into someone's hands is gonna become even more important as we use PPE (of all kinds) in the broad economy, where margins matter.

I wonder will any cargo players get caught out for over extending at this time; and will pax demand be back at a level to sustain and replace the revenue for airlines like Aer Lingus. Interesting and tricky times ahead.

Tenger

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Guys... despite my delusions of grandeur, I’m not a mod.... but can we keep this on topic maybe?

Whilst I am enjoying this rational balanced debate on Covid-19 (rather than the usual "hoax", "over reaction", "masks are a scam" screaming matches elsewhere) the man has a good point.

Let's try to focus on the impact on aviation.

Tenger

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Guys... despite my delusions of grandeur, I’m not a mod.... but can we keep this on topic maybe?

Whilst I am enjoying this rational balanced debate on Covid-19 (rather than the usual "hoax", "over reaction", "masks are a scam" screaming matches elsewhere) the man has a good point.

Let's try to focus on the impact on aviation.

HTCOne

There was a story doing the rounds that there are currently more DC-8s (freighters) active globally than A380s. A few have been hauled out of the desert and rehabilitated, with others currently undergoing the same process. I had my first DC-8 in my sector in god knows how many years when this all started hauling PPE to the States, always thought it was a very good looking aircraft.

smurfjed

Also remember that fuel costs are very low, so the thirsty DC8 has become economical again. I’m curious as to how they can train their crews.

HTCOne

smurfjed wrote: »

Also remember that fuel costs are very low, so the thirsty DC8 has become economical again. I’m curious as to how they can train their crews.

One would imagine it’s a reasonably brief return, as ADSB / Datalink mandates have been delayed / revoked all over the place to allow non compliant freighters back in the air. Once those are re-introduced, I’d imagine they’ll be gone for good, I mean there’s probably not even certified compliant avionics for the DC8? And even if there is, probably not worth spending the couple of million on each frame it would possibly cost.

BZ

N865F DC-8 former Murray Air / National Airlines Bird is currently being made airworthy in YIP after sitting there for a number of years. Pretty sure I saw a former ATI DC-8 is being reactived in mojave also.

HTCOne

BZ wrote: »

N865F DC-8 former Murray Air / National Airlines Bird is currently being made airworthy in YIP after sitting there for a number of years. Pretty sure I saw a former ATI DC-8 is being reactived in mojave also.

There’s a couple of blast from the past carriers.

BZ

HTCOne wrote: »

There’s a couple of blast from the past carriers.

Should of said National Air Cargo and they are still going strong having recently received there first A330 200.

BZ

HTCOne wrote: »

There’s a couple of blast from the past carriers.

Should of said National Air Cargo and they are still going strong having recently received there first A330 200.