Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

HTCOne

BZ wrote: »

Should of said National Air Cargo and they are still going strong having recently received there first A330 200.

I was thinking of Murray and Air Transport International. National are a regular enough sight, I think they got a lot of their fleet painted in DUB? I've definitely seen them on US mil contracts passing through SNN over the years.

Amerijet, Tampa Cargo and Samaritan's purse (DC-8) are new regulars through the airspace atm.

Jack1985

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) believes the amount of cases 2,410,279 as of 25/06/2020 could be in reality 10 times higher (nearly 24 million) cautioning that there is a real surge that will overwhelm parts of the States locally.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/2020/06/25/ten-times-more-people-have-covid-19-antibodies-than-are-diagnosed-cdc-reports/#771edd1e7293

It is clear the rumoured EU decision to ban the US needs to be supported, it will be devestating for jobs in aviation mine included I'd imagine but EU Citizens can't pay the price with their lives for the inablity of the US to get its act together.

HTCOne

Jack1985 wrote: »

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) believes the amount of cases 2,410,279 as of 25/06/2020 could be in reality 10 times higher (nearly 24 million) cautioning that there is a real surge that could overwhelm parts of the States locally.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattperez/2020/06/25/ten-times-more-people-have-covid-19-antibodies-than-are-diagnosed-cdc-reports/#771edd1e7293

It is clear the rumoured EU decision to ban the US needs to be supported, it will be devestating for jobs in aviation mine included I'd imagine but EU Citizens can't pay the price with their lives for the inablity of the US to get its act together.

Won’t be good for my own job either but I 100% agree with you. Lock them out. Maybe if Canada keep their land border closed we can at least allow them in.

That AA cargo only flight coming in from DFW each week, does the crew overnight here or dead head home without leaving the aircraft? Texas is riddled....

Jack1985

HTCOne wrote: »

That AA cargo only flight coming in from DFW each week, does the crew overnight here or dead head home without leaving the aircraft? Texas is riddled....

Good question I'd hope someone could answer here. The only thing is that most aircrews are advised not to leave hotels at the moment I would assume AA have the same procedure as is the case for European aircrews.

L1011

A week confined to your room in an airport-adjacent hotel sounds like close to my personal idea of hell.

Jacovs

HTCOne wrote: »

Won’t be good for my own job either but I 100% agree with you. Lock them out. Maybe if Canada keep their land border closed we can at least allow them in.

That AA cargo only flight coming in from DFW each week, does the crew overnight here or dead head home without leaving the aircraft? Texas is riddled....

Dont think that particular AA flight has operated in a few weeks. But when it did, it came in at 1315 and didnt leave till 1515 the next day. 26 hours layover, which would indicate same crew operated back.
The UA from IAD does similar, come in the morning 0550 and leaves 1950 same day, but the 14 hours is enough for crew rest so same crew operate back.
Air Canadas are also scheduled for 0440 arrivals and 1810 departures, again I would imagine same crew operate back after some rest.

Jack1985

L1011 wrote: »

A week confined to your room in an airport-adjacent hotel sounds like close to my personal idea of hell.

Try (pre covid) sitting in a bar in Florida listening to some political talk and I'd definitely compare it to hell!

Very few week layovers I've ever heard of, most reputable working airlines don't overnight at airport hotels either.

Jacovs

The US big 3 look after their pilots well. Dont know the names of the hotels, but I know the pilots usually get a hotel that is a grade higher than whatever hotel the attendants get.
Not sure during these times though.

HTCOne

Jacovs wrote: »

Dont think that particular AA flight has operated in a few weeks. But when it did, it came in at 1315 and didnt leave till 1515 the next day. 26 hours layover, which would indicate same crew operated back.
The UA from IAD does similar, come in the morning 0550 and leaves 1950 same day, but the 14 hours is enough for crew rest so same crew operate back.
Air Canadas are also scheduled for 0440 arrivals and 1810 departures, again I would imagine same crew operate back after some rest.

Thanks for that. I was going to say that if they are transported carefully, not allowed interact with anyone or leave the rooms etc then there’s probably no issue, but all it takes is one MAGA hat wearing clown who thinks COVID is a Communist ANTIFA Democrat 5G conspiracy to ruin everything. Maybe the Chinese had the right of it making EI crews turn around and head straight home. I know US Pilot unions are incredibly strong, maybe they refused dead heading. If the Irish Government insisted on the same then maybe the US pilots would refuse and EI would get the contract.....

Speaking of contracts, with the PEK PPE contract finished, was it ever confirmed who got the ICN one?

Jack1985

Jacovs wrote: »

The US big 3 look after their pilots well. Dont know the names of the hotels, but I know the pilots usually get a hotel that is a grade higher than whatever hotel the attendants get.
Not sure during these times though.

That’s mad regarding segregated hotels, only heard of BA doing that previously with mixed fleet crew only, nothing like that exists in EI a set standard across the board for all crew.

HTCOne

Jacovs wrote: »

The US big 3 look after their pilots well. Dont know the names of the hotels, but I know the pilots usually get a hotel that is a grade higher than whatever hotel the attendants get.
Not sure during these times though.

I know which hotels United and Delta stay in in DUB (won’t disclose for security reasons). Fairly sure entire DL crew stays in same hotel, not sure about UA.

A BA skipper told me BA pilots and cabin crew stay in different hotels overseas. After pilots crossed the picket line to operate as cabin crew when cabin crew were on strike a few years ago, things got absolutely poisonous between them. There were too many fights after drink was taken so they were separated.

Edit: crossed transmission there Jack!

Jacovs

HTCOne wrote: »

I know which hotels United and Delta stay in in DUB (won’t disclose for security reasons). Fairly sure entire DL crew stays in same hotel, not sure about UA.

A BA skipper told me BA pilots and cabin crew stay in different hotels overseas. After pilots crossed the picket line to operate as cabin crew when cabin crew were on strike a few years ago, things got absolutely poisonous between them. There were too many fights after drink was taken so they were separated.

Edit: crossed transmission there Jack!

Maybe its just AA and UA that does separate them. Been on plenty of them where the pilots introduce themselves to the cabin crew 10 minutes before they start boarding the plane. Wouldnt know each other until an hour before taking off.

Mad how many cabin crews and pilots there airlines have that they could be in the service for years and not know each other.

smurfjed

L1011 wrote: »

A week confined to your room in an airport-adjacent hotel sounds like close to my personal idea of hell.

Welcome to my present life, over 100 days in hotels since March. But at least they aren’t airport hotels

Deub

https://twitter.com/breakingavnews/status/1276056111142047746

john boye

I wonder if we'll ever see qantas in Heathrow again. Project sunrise seems like pie in the sky stuff now.

California Dreamer

Obviously Qantas have access to more data than you and me but I would have thought it would have thought it would return before then.

Also what happens to their slots?

AnRothar

California Dreamer wrote: »

Also what happens to their slots?

Use it or lose it rule suspended for the duration of the crisis.

Tenger

July 2021 seems quite draconian.
I can understand January perhaps. (obviously this timeline is based on vaccine deployment timetable)
I have family there and last weekend he was telling us that decision it was in the works.
I'm guessing they will be in a bubble with NZ?

BZ

HTCOne wrote: »

I was thinking of Murray and Air Transport International. National are a regular enough sight, I think they got a lot of their fleet painted in DUB? I've definitely seen them on US mil contracts passing through SNN over the years.

Amerijet, Tampa Cargo and Samaritan's purse (DC-8) are new regulars through the airspace atm.

Samaritans purse are meant to be taking a second DC-8. 2 days ago another became active in the shape of N805SJ a former DHL machine which flew kingman Arizona to Victorville to be prepared Skybus Jet Cargo. Great to see these old birds back doing what they do best.

National come through SNN regularly with their 757 and the 747s.

Lapmo_Dancer

Speculation is that the Greens will get the transport portfolio.

Credit Checker Moose

Lapmo_Dancer wrote: »

Speculation is that the Greens will get the transport portfolio.

Goodbye to cheap flights so.

LXFlyer

Credit Checker Moose wrote: »

Goodbye to cheap flights so.

They are only 4 voices at cabinet, there are 14 others.

Let’s not get over dramatic about this.

L1011

Credit Checker Moose wrote: »

Goodbye to cheap flights so.

Taxation would be a DoF decision ultimately. which they will not hold.

There is to be a Super Junior for roads, allegedly - roads and aviation might not be the worst to keep a little bit away from Ryan.

smurfjed

They just don’t care.

American Airlines announced Friday that it will resume full flights starting July 1 amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
The airline will continue to notify passengers when their planes are full and allow them to switch to less crowded flights at no extra cost through Sept. 30. Passengers with flights booked through Sept. 30 can also change their flights, including adjusting origin and destination cities, without incurring a travel change fee but will have to pay for any difference in the fare.
Starting June 30, American said it will begin asking customers during the flight check-in process whether they have been free of Covid-19 symptoms for the past 14 days. Travelers will be able to complete the coronavirus symptom checklist using self-service machines at airports or during online check-in. The airline is continuing to require passengers and employees to wear face masks on flights unless they have a medical reason not to.
“Our customers trust us to make every aspect of their journey safe. We won’t let them down,” said Alison Taylor, American’s chief customer officer, in a statement. “We will continue to refine and update our practices based on the latest information from health authorities and our own Travel Health Advisory Panel.”
United Airlines introduced a coronavirus symptom questionnaire earlier in June, but has not yet put a capacity limit on flights. Other carriers, including Southwest Airlines and Delta Air Lines, still have restrictions on passenger numbers in place.
The CEOs of American, United, Southwest and Delta, as well as other major airlines, are expected to meet with Vice President Mike Pence on Friday in order to discuss travel issues related to the coronavirus, including whether the federal government should mandate temperature checks for passengers.
American’s stock was down more than 5% in morning trading.

Blut2

smurfjed wrote: »

They just don’t care.

They're not forcing anyone to fly with them. If you don't want to fly on their airplanes you don't have to.

Unfortunately with no vaccine in sight for years to come (if ever) thats just how the world is going to be. A return to normal for most people, and an at-risk minority continuing to self-isolate/alter their behaviour, if they choose to.

Nijmegen

Tenger wrote: »

July 2021 seems quite draconian.
I can understand January perhaps. (obviously this timeline is based on vaccine deployment timetable)
I have family there and last weekend he was telling us that decision it was in the works.
I'm guessing they will be in a bubble with NZ?

I remember when Covid started to pop on the radar at work in Q1, the idea was the summer would be a write off but things back to normal in September ish. Now it's a lot of talk of January. But unless there's a fundamental re-alignment of public policy making along the lines Blut2 and others suggest, that we simply come to accept the casualties of this and that people try to cocoon if they need to (a plan with a lot of practical difficulties), when you spool out the timeline for a vaccine to be potentially delivered and then effectively administered across populations July 2021 doesn't seem all that far fetched.

They're not forcing anyone to fly with them. If you don't want to fly on their airplanes you don't have to.

Unfortunately with no vaccine in sight for years to come (if ever) thats just how the world is going to be. A return to normal for most people, and an at-risk minority continuing to self-isolate/alter their behaviour, if they choose to.

I don't think that the public will wear it, to be honest. Even in deep red states in the US where they fought restrictions, they're now backpeddling fast because of the simple reality that they're gonna have camera crews filming people spaz out in the halls of hospitals that are overrun. Telling those at risk to stay home is, well, actually a lot of people. Even if Covid "only" kills 0.3% of those in their 30s, there's 43.7m people in the US for example in that age bracket. Get to 100% of the population with Covid and you've got 131,000 people from that age bracket dead. And that's assuming that while you were getting there you didn't overwhelm hospitals and anyone taking a "normal" survivable heart attack or similar is dying.

Pretty grim when you get over the words of it and into the reality and this is what airline executives, for example, are actually weighing up when making calls like Qantas is. When deep red US politicians back peddle on restrictions, you know they've got their ear to the ground and know this isn't going to fly with the general public.

Blut2

Nijmegen wrote: »

I remember when Covid started to pop on the radar at work in Q1, the idea was the summer would be a write off but things back to normal in September ish. Now it's a lot of talk of January. But unless there's a fundamental re-alignment of public policy making along the lines Blut2 and others suggest, that we simply come to accept the casualties of this and that people try to cocoon if they need to (a plan with a lot of practical difficulties), when you spool out the timeline for a vaccine to be potentially delivered and then effectively administered across populations July 2021 doesn't seem all that far fetched.

I don't think that the public will wear it, to be honest. Even in deep red states in the US where they fought restrictions, they're now backpeddling fast because of the simple reality that they're gonna have camera crews filming people spaz out in the halls of hospitals that are overrun. Telling those at risk to stay home is, well, actually a lot of people. Even if Covid "only" kills 0.3% of those in their 30s, there's 43.7m people in the US for example in that age bracket. Get to 100% of the population with Covid and you've got 131,000 people from that age bracket dead. And that's assuming that while you were getting there you didn't overwhelm hospitals and anyone taking a "normal" survivable heart attack or similar is dying.

Pretty grim when you get over the words of it and into the reality and this is what airline executives, for example, are actually weighing up when making calls like Qantas is. When deep red US politicians back peddle on restrictions, you know they've got their ear to the ground and know this isn't going to fly with the general public.

Your maths are way, way off. The IFR for covid overall is 0.38% - across all age ranges - not for people in their 30s:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/htmlview?pru=AAABchM1MrM*aJ5Rxb9kousGZwDSuLVUvQ#gid=0

So you're looking at closer to one tenth of that for people in their 30s (0.03%). And 88% of those deaths are people with underlying health conditions in the US - so you can again divide by ten, to get an IFR for that age range for healthy adults of approx 0.003%. Or 1300 people in a US context. And thats assuming a 100% infection rate - when we'd be likely to hit herd immunity well before at, at anywhere from 60-70% - so closer to 800 people. Which, for context, is about one quarter the yearly deaths from drowning in the US, yet nobody is demanding nobody go swimming in the US.

I'm not suggesting a "fundamental re-alignment of public policy" at all - what I've outlined is whats happening, or has already happened in every country around the world already. Societies are already back open, or are in the process of it. You can go into a crowded pub almost anywhere in Europe next week if you choose to. The lockdown is over, we're defaulting back to personal choice.

In an aviation context no airline, at any point in the infection, in any Western country, was mandated by a government to leave space on their planes. They weren't in the US when NYC was reaching peak infection levels, and they weren't in the EU when Northern Italy was either. As such its extremely unlikely that they will be at any stage in the future. Nobody is going to step in to tell American Airlines they must have empty seats here.

As I said, like it or not businesses (and specifically aviation) will operate to the best of their ability. Its just going to come down to personal choice whether you engage with them or not.

Nijmegen

Blut2 wrote: »

Your maths are way, way off. The IFR for covid overall is 0.38% - across all age ranges - not for people in their 30s:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/htmlview?pru=AAABchM1MrM*aJ5Rxb9kousGZwDSuLVUvQ#gid=0

So you're looking at closer to one tenth of that for people in their 30s (0.03%). And 88% of those deaths are people with underlying health conditions in the US - so you can again divide by ten, to get an IFR for that age range for healthy adults of approx 0.003%. Or 1300 people in a US context. And thats assuming a 100% infection rate - when we'd be likely to hit herd immunity well before at, at anywhere from 60-70% - so closer to 800 people. Which, for context, is about one quarter the yearly deaths from drowning in the US, yet nobody is demanding nobody go swimming in the US.

I'm not suggesting a "fundamental re-alignment of public policy" at all - what I've outlined is whats happening, or has already happened in every country around the world already. Societies are already back open, or are in the process of it. You can go into a crowded pub almost anywhere in Europe next week if you choose to. The lockdown is over, we're defaulting back to personal choice.

In an aviation context no airline, at any point in the infection, in any Western country, was mandated by a government to leave space on their planes. They weren't in the US when NYC was reaching peak infection levels, and they weren't in the EU when Northern Italy was either. As such its extremely unlikely that they will be at any stage in the future. Nobody is going to step in to tell American Airlines they must have empty seats here.

As I said, like it or not businesses (and specifically aviation) will operate to the best of their ability. Its just going to come down to personal choice whether you engage with them or not.

It's possibly not on-topic for us to do the well-worn debate on what the actual death rate from covid is, we don't have enough data today probably. But here's an article from the past few days citing CDC data in the US putting the death rate for people in their 30's at 0.3% in that country. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-us-compared-to-flu-by-age-2020-6?r=US&IR=T



As for the lockdown ending, yes in Europe it is but there are also controls on who can come to Europe and it looks like places that aren't controlling Covid won't get let in.

Meanwhile in the US, they are actively rolling back on opening up because they let it explode by being stupid about what they were doing. 40,000 new cases yesterday.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-latest-news-06-26-2020-11593159630

Blut2

Nijmegen wrote: »

/snip for brevity

Your linked article (and graph) discuss the death rate from people who are presenting with Corona - which isn't accurate for showing the actual overall death rate, given so many people are asymptomatic and never get tested. And, again, 88% of even those in the US have had underlying health conditions. The excel spreadsheet I posted has 60 odd PCR and serological studies on closed populations, or on entire population segments. Its regarded as being the most accurate risk assessment we have to date.

But vaguely off-topic numbers aside, back to aviation, again - at no point, in Western country, has any government restricted airplane seating capacity to date. Even at the absolute peak of the crisis. So it seems extremely unlikely the public will now start lobbying politicians to demand American Airlines do so, as you suggested.

You mightn't like if it people choose to fly on AA, but there is clearly enough demand for them to be flying - their (and most other airlines) schedule is being ramped up more and more every week.

Nijmegen

Blut2 wrote: »

Your linked article (and graph) discuss the death rate from people who are presenting with Corona - which isn't accurate for showing the actual overall death rate, given so many people are asymptomatic and never get tested. And, again, 88% of even those in the US have had underlying health conditions. The excel spreadsheet I posted has 60 odd PCR and serological studies on closed populations, or on entire population segments. Its regarded as being the most accurate risk assessment we have to date.

But vaguely off-topic numbers aside, back to aviation, again - at no point, in Western country, has any government restricted airplane seating capacity to date. Even at the absolute peak of the crisis. So it seems extremely unlikely the public will now start lobbying politicians to demand American Airlines do so, as you suggested.

You mightn't like if it people choose to fly on AA, but there is clearly enough demand for them to be flying - their (and most other airlines) schedule is being ramped up more and more every week.

Sorry to be clear I was talking more about the general policy of opening up the economy (including flights) rather than specifically how many people sit where on a plane. To be honest I think restricted seating on a plane is theatre, once you're on it you're taking the sheep dip anyway.

Dr. Tony is all but screaming about overseas travel, meanwhile - spoke sternly about it last night, has written a letter on it and tweeted about it now today:

https://twitter.com/CMOIreland/status/1276771286438592512?s=20

The data may not be clear on the final death tally of Covid, but what is clear that if it starts to overwhelm your hospital system it gets grim, fast, and this is why I think even deep red US politicians - not to mind our own conservative public health team - are backpeddling so hard once they get the well advertised results of opening up too soon, too much.

I just can't see people coming to accept Covid infections and deaths, be they 0.3% or 0.003% or somewhere in between depending on who you're counting (or if you're just looking at total excess deaths generally), to the extent that the AA approach is gonna win out over the Qantas type approach (ie, leaning conservative) in the long run.

Edit: Just adding this clip from last night. “Listen to us, not the airlines.”

https://twitter.com/zaraking/status/1276606115829121024?s=21