Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Blut2

Holohan can Tweet as loudly as he wants, hes lost the battle on this. Border controls are falling all over the world, including the very limited restrictions we had in the first place in Ireland. Based on people's actions they appear to be fully ready to accept covid infections and deaths, given airline bookings are increasingly rapidly for July & August. That and beaches and parks being rammed full of people not social distancing, the pubs about to be full this coming week etc etc.

If you stroll around Dublin city center today you'll find it absolutely crowded full of people going shopping, hanging out with friends etc. And you'll barely see anyone going to the effort of wearing a mask, despite it being extremely low effort and proven to be massively beneficial to slowing the spread of corona and preventing deaths. Nevermind curtailing their lives by doing things like not going on holiday or socializing.

The AA approach is already winning out over the Qantas approach - AA are flying far more flights and generating far more revenue. I'm not aware of Qantas' specific cash reserve situation, but I would be very curious to hear how they plan to stay solvent through to July 2021 not flying internationally. That doesn't seem mathematically likely to me given what we know about the European & US airlines cashflows.

trellheim

If you get on Dublin Bus a doubledecker will only take 17 passengers. Yet EI and FR will not social distance.

HTCOne

In recent years I seem to recall reading Qantas international was loss making,, domestic and Trans Tasman was all the profit.

Tenzor07

HTCOne wrote: »

In recent years I seem to recall reading Qantas international was loss making,, domestic and Trans Tasman was all the profit.

Qantas may become a national airline only, and completely sell off or close the International part of the business. How can they keep 30,000 people employed when losing probably a couple of million dollars a day?
I see they will cut 5,000 international employee's, but how will they pay the rest, and all their other costs? I'm guessing they're not paying the lessors either.

Same for NZ air, closing a lot of their international routes.


In Europe Norwegian air have done the same thing, cut staff, suspended paying shareholders and creditors and are only flying in the Nordics or limited European routes..

HTCOne

trellheim wrote: »

If you get on Dublin Bus a doubledecker will only take 17 passengers. Yet EI and FR will not social distance.

Because they’d lose tens of thousands on every single flight. CIE’s losses will be swallowed by the taxpayer as usual, Ryanair and Aer Lingus are private companies who don't have that guarantee.

I don’t think enough emphasis is being put on the fact we might never have a vaccine. In 40 odd years, we haven’t managed to come up with an HIV vaccine. The flu vaccine tends to only be ballpark 70% effective. We are going to have to go back to normal, or as near normal as possible at some point.

Cillian De Gascun says 50% of people testing positive in Ireland are asymptomatic, they’re only being caught because a close contact tested positive and the asymptomatic people got tested as a result. Now if you catch it in the community and have no symptoms, you won’t be tested, you won’t know you have or had it, or likewise if you have a bit of a sniffle, or an ache, or fatigue. So if we say .3% of folks in their 30s die, it’s actually a tiny fraction of that, because only a fraction of those who get COVID are likely even aware they have it.

Jack1985

trellheim wrote: »

If you get on Dublin Bus a doubledecker will only take 17 passengers. Yet EI and FR will not social distance.

Comparing the operating costs of an airliner against Dublin Bus is somewhat laughable.

Who do you want to pick up the tab for implementing such distancing? Not one flight will generate income and proportionality Government's will pick up the tab when these businesses fail. The crew for example through virtue of seating arrangements and accessibility on aircraft cannot socially distance.

If you don't feel safe flying don't, nobody is forcing you too.

Van.Bosch

HTCOne wrote: »

Because they’d lose tens of thousands on every single flight. CIE’s losses will be swallowed by the taxpayer as usual, Ryanair and Aer Lingus are private companies who don't have that guarantee.

I don’t think enough emphasis is being put on the fact we might never have a vaccine. In 40 odd years, we haven’t managed to come up with an HIV vaccine. The flu vaccine tends to only be ballpark 70% effective. We are going to have to go back to normal, or as near normal as possible at some point.

Cillian De Gascun says 50% of people testing positive in Ireland are asymptomatic, they’re only being caught because a close contact tested positive and the asymptomatic people got tested as a result. Now if you catch it in the community and have no symptoms, you won’t be tested, you won’t know you have or had it, or likewise if you have a bit of a sniffle, or an ache, or fatigue. So if we say .3% of folks in their 30s die, it’s actually a tiny fraction of that, because only a fraction of those who get COVID are likely even aware they have it.

Agree on the vaccine but no other virus has ever had this many scientists with so much money behind them trying to crack it. I would be confident they will develop something works, maybe only partially.

cson

Blut2 wrote: »

The AA approach is already winning out over the Qantas approach - AA are flying far more flights and generating far more revenue. I'm not aware of Qantas' specific cash reserve situation, but I would be very curious to hear how they plan to stay solvent through to July 2021 not flying internationally. That doesn't seem mathematically likely to me given what we know about the European & US airlines cashflows.

Are you aware AA just raised $2bn at 11.75%?

That's a junk bond bracket coupon for reference.

AA is in deep **** & them running a larger program of flights than their competitors has all the hallmarks of a Hail Mary play.

Blut2

cson wrote: »

Are you aware AA just raised $2bn at 11.75%?

That's a junk bond bracket coupon for reference.

AA is in deep **** & them running a larger program of flights than their competitors has all the hallmarks of a Hail Mary play.

You'll note I didn't in any way say AA are in a good financial position. They're obviously hugely struggling, as almost every airline is. But they're unquestionably going to be bringing in more revenue over the next 12 months than an airline that isn't flying any international flights whatsoever (ie Qantas). Thats a rather unprofitable business position moving forwards.

BZ

Eamon Ryan confirmed as minister for transport, he will definitely not help an already very fragile aviation industry in this country.

L1011

BZ wrote: »

Eamon Ryan confirmed as minister for transport, he will definitely not help an already very fragile aviation industry in this country.

Hildegarde Naughton will have responsibility for international transport & logistics; including sitting at cabinet.

BZ

L1011 wrote: »

Hildegarde Naughton will have responsibility for international transport & logistics; including sitting at cabinet.

She is down as a super junior minister, will she have any power in that position or will it ultimately lie with Éamon Ryan?

L1011

BZ wrote: »

She is down as a super junior minister, will she have any power in that position or will it ultimately lie with mon Ryan?

Realistically it will be with her.

It's a very deliberate move

Inquitus

Jack1985 wrote: »

If you don't feel safe flying don't, nobody is forcing you too.

I think you'll be surprised how few people are actually willing to fly when push comes to shove. I'll be taking the family on a staycation this year.

I travel extensively for work and I cannot see any of our corporate travel returning this year.

Sheep Shagger

Inquitus wrote: »

I think you'll be surprised how few people are actually willing to fly when push comes to shove. I'll be taking the family on a staycation this year.

I travel extensively for work and I cannot see any of our corporate travel returning this year.

Likewise - no corporate international travel allowed until at least 1 January 2021 in our place.

AlekSmart

BZ wrote: »

Eamon Ryan confirmed as minister for transport, he will definitely not help an already very fragile aviation industry in this country.

I can see Eamo having a hissy fit if he can get the oul BBC on the outside aerial....

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53206148

A spokesperson for TUI said the move was a "hugely positive step forward".
"We've already seen bookings increase by 50% this week, versus last [week], with holidays to Spain and Greece looking the most popular this summer," said Andrew Flintham, managing director of TUI UK and Ireland.

Lastminute.com said it experienced an 80% increase on holiday sales compared to last week, largely attributed to the announcement of Spain lifting the quarantine for Brits.

John Keefe, director of public affairs at Eurotunnel, said phones had been "ringing off the hook".

Eurotunnel saw an increase of bookings weeks ago, suggesting that many holidaymakers had already started to "discount the quarantine measures", said Mr Keefe - but bookings "exploded" when the announcement was made on Friday.

Humans,humanity and anything possessing the 'power or reason' can often prove to be TOTALLY unpredictable...this trait has been around a lot longer then the WHO,HSE,or Dr Holohan and sadly for them,the Humans want to resume being Human...end of.:eek:

trellheim

Comparing the operating costs of an airliner against Dublin Bus is somewhat laughable.

Who do you want to pick up the tab for implementing such distancing? Not one flight will generate income and proportionality Government's will pick up the tab when these businesses fail. The crew for example through virtue of seating arrangements and accessibility on aircraft cannot socially distance.

If you don't feel safe flying don't, nobody is forcing you too.

True enough although nobody is forcing the airlines to set a maximum price for the seats either, so... swings and roundabouts.

I am being extremely cynical here but I would see it as the role for Govt to set the social distancing here; DAA and airlines banging on about masks is only one part of it. ( and social distancing in the terminal but not in the plane... come off it )

HTCOne

trellheim wrote: »

True enough although nobody is forcing the airlines to set a maximum price for the seats either, so... swings and roundabouts.

I am being extremely cynical here but I would see it as the role for Govt to set the social distancing here; DAA and airlines banging on about masks is only one part of it. ( and social distancing in the terminal but not in the plane... come off it )

In the terminal, you haven’t got a stream of air blowing directly downwards, and then being extracted out through vents at floor level, which is replaced by outside air every 2 minutes, after passing through hospital grade filters proven to kill COVID-19. The air and social distancing are not the risk on aircraft imo if masks are worn, it’s the bathrooms, which again can be mitigated by masks, and thoroughly cleaning anything before touching, and thoroughly washing hands.

The above were all brought in after SARS spread on a flight from China to Taipei IIRC. It prevented subsequent spreading on flights. The masks combined with the airflow will protect you. Hand sanitisation is up to you.

Tenger

Inquitus wrote: »

I think you'll be surprised how few people are actually willing to fly when push comes to shove. I'll be taking the family on a staycation this year.

I travel extensively for work and I cannot see any of our corporate travel returning this year.

I would 100% agree regarding corporate travel (which accounts for the major chunk of airline yield)
But I can see a decent amount of leisure travel to Sun destinations in July/August.

x567

LIAT going under by the look of it...

http://guyanachronicle.com/2020/06/27/liat-to-be-liquidated-new-airline-to-be-formed

TheDriver

Tenger wrote: »

I would 100% agree regarding corporate travel (which accounts for the major chunk of airline yield)
But I can see a decent amount of leisure travel to Sun destinations in July/August.

With the weather after turning and annoying restrictions i.e. 90 mins in pub, the appeal of abroad is far greater.
Reports from Spain shows similar regulations but people sitting appropriately at their table on outdoor bar terraces so probably not much different to normal.

Blut2

Inquitus wrote: »

I think you'll be surprised how few people are actually willing to fly when push comes to shove. I'll be taking the family on a staycation this year.

I travel extensively for work and I cannot see any of our corporate travel returning this year.

That isn't born out by ticket sales at all. China is approx 2 months ahead of us in terms of corona-timelines, and aviation there is rapidly returning towards normal. "In the first week of May capacity was scheduled to be only 10% lower than in the same period a year ago [..]passenger load factor averaged 68% in the first quarter, down from 80-85% in 2019 but still respectable."

In the US, Southwest released their data and "both the capacity and load factor haven’t dropped so much. Both are expected to sit at 40-50% of last June’s figures."

In Europe, by "May 28th Ryanair had sold 30 per cent of its July seats, compared to 60 per cent at the same time last year". Obviously thats not a good/"normal" load factor - and its on a reduced schedule of flights - but considering that was from late May, and travel restrictions were only beginning to ease/public sentiment improve, thats surprisingly high. And is likely much much higher now, in late June.

Essentially, for leisure travel - we're absolutely not going to see a return to a full 100% demand. But all the signs point to the majority of the population being entirely comfortable flying. Its only a small minority who aren't.

I would agree with the assumption that international corporate travel is likely to be hit harder, and for longer, though. But we'll see what the load factors show over the coming months, we might be surprised.

https://simpleflying.com/southwest-demand-rises/
https://www.economist.com/business/2020/05/07/chinese-carriers-restart-their-engines
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-8372237/Ryanair-cut-fares-HALF-war-rivals.html

Widdensushi

x567 wrote: »

LIAT going under by the look of it...

http://guyanachronicle.com/2020/06/27/liat-to-be-liquidated-new-airline-to-be-formed

That's a different approach, let the airline go bankrupt and start again, I realise that they would lose valuable slots etc but it would be a much fairer market.

Nijmegen

NPHET members all singing from the same hymn sheet about travel. Seems it’s ticking up as a cause of transmission again. The experience we’re seeing in other countries with the spread expanding till further lockdowns are required (the US is an egregious example, but S Korea and China are examples of it happening in places that are taking it seriously) is concerning. Also concerning seeing the lack of face mask etc discipline if you go out and about these days, in shopping centres etc. It’s all pretty grim for the medium term prospects of the aviation industry, especially if corporate travel is dead given its role in many airlines’ profitability mix.

https://twitter.com/president_mu/status/1277206296106844166?s=21

HTCOne

Nijmegen wrote: »

NPHET members all singing from the same hymn sheet about travel. Seems it’s ticking up as a cause of transmission again. The experience we’re seeing in other countries with the spread expanding till further lockdowns are required (the US is an egregious example, but S Korea and China are examples of it happening in places that are taking it seriously) is concerning. Also concerning seeing the lack of face mask etc discipline if you go out and about these days, in shopping centres etc. It’s all pretty grim for the medium term prospects of the aviation industry, especially if corporate travel is dead given its role in many airlines’ profitability mix.

https://twitter.com/president_mu/status/1277206296106844166?s=21

What would be really useful to know is where exactly these imported cases are coming from. If it is the UK or movement of EU citizens living / working in US or vice versa, then that’s why the air bridges excluding these countries that are being discussed are ok. If it is all the EU countries we want to open up to, then that’s a different matter.

Nijmegen

HTCOne wrote: »

What would be really useful to know is where exactly these imported cases are coming from. If it is the UK or movement of EU citizens living / working in US or vice versa, then that’s why the air bridges excluding these countries that are being discussed are ok. If it is all the EU countries we want to open up to, then that’s a different matter.

And remember in their advice what they’re saying is not just that Johnny Foreigner will bring it in, rather we might go out and traipse it back again.

Van.Bosch

Nijmegen wrote: »

NPHET members all singing from the same hymn sheet about travel. Seems it’s ticking up as a cause of transmission again. The experience we’re seeing in other countries with the spread expanding till further lockdowns are required (the US is an egregious example, but S Korea and China are examples of it happening in places that are taking it seriously) is concerning. Also concerning seeing the lack of face mask etc discipline if you go out and about these days, in shopping centres etc. It’s all pretty grim for the medium term prospects of the aviation industry, especially if corporate travel is dead given its role in many airlines’ profitability mix.

https://twitter.com/president_mu/status/1277206296106844166?s=21

Am I reading it right that travel as a % of cases was actually higher at the start of the graph? So why are they more concerned now?

TheDriver

Nijmegen wrote: »

NPHET members all singing from the same hymn sheet about travel. Seems it’s ticking up as a cause of transmission again. The experience we’re seeing in other countries with the spread expanding till further lockdowns are required (the US is an egregious example, but S Korea and China are examples of it happening in places that are taking it seriously) is concerning. Also concerning seeing the lack of face mask etc discipline if you go out and about these days, in shopping centres etc. It’s all pretty grim for the medium term prospects of the aviation industry, especially if corporate travel is dead given its role in many airlines’ profitability mix.

https://twitter.com/president_mu/status/1277206296106844166?s=21

It's all very predictable. Interestingly they don't seem to have anything to say about all the other things that are happening whereby the rules are ignored. It's even more cringy that no one is listening anymore (rightly or wrongly)

Marcusm

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Am I reading it right that travel as a % of cases was actually higher at the start of the graph? So why are they more concerned now?

It’s also the case that the lower the absolute number of new infections the greater the import level might be as a proportion without it necessarily being an increase in the number.

Mitigation on return is also an important point.

HTCOne

Nijmegen wrote: »

And remember in their advice what they’re saying is not just that Johnny Foreigner will bring it in, rather we might go out and traipse it back again.

Hence my comment about EU citizens, I was including Irish in that!

As I've said I believe the Air Bridge idea is a runner. If we look at countries like Iceland, who have eliminated the virus, or Slovakia, there's no reason from our point of view not to let them in. Some other countries.....not so much!