Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Nijmegen

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Am I reading it right that travel as a % of cases was actually higher at the start of the graph? So why are they more concerned now?

Well, that’s how it got in. Then we locked down and nobody was moving really and now that people are flying again, it’s ticking back up as a proportion. If we get the rate of transmission below 1 domestically, a quick way to explode it is to import cases.

I guess it’s interesting that the members of the health team are talking about this repeatedly, in unison, and in alarmist tones.

Blut2

Nijmegen wrote: »

Well, that’s how it got in. Then we locked down and nobody was moving really and now that people are flying again, it’s ticking back up as a proportion. If we get the rate of transmission below 1 domestically, a quick way to explode it is to import cases.

I guess it’s interesting that the members of the health team are talking about this repeatedly, in unison, and in alarmist tones.

We have a completely open land border to the UK, the country with Europe's worst infection rate currently. Tens of thousands of people cross back and forth every day, with no checks or tests of any sort. Given that corona was always going get back in, even if we kept or keep the airport completely closed. It not getting back in was never an option.

Van.Bosch

Nijmegen wrote: »

Well, that’s how it got in. Then we locked down and nobody was moving really and now that people are flying again, it’s ticking back up as a proportion. If we get the rate of transmission below 1 domestically, a quick way to explode it is to import cases.

I guess it’s interesting that the members of the health team are talking about this repeatedly, in unison, and in alarmist tones.

My point was that on the 10 June, travel was a higher portion than last few days and there were more cases. So why was alarm/caution not flagged then?

smurfjed

If Ryanair are restarting “much of its network” on July 01st, it is obviously expecting the traffic to be there, so why are these requested cuts necessary ?

DUBLIN: Ryanair has threatened to close two regional bases and axe up to 120 pilot jobs unless pilots in its home Irish market bypass their union and directly accept a pay cut, a memo said.

Europe’s largest low-cost carrier is demanding pay cuts of up to 20 percent and changes to work practices across Europe.

It has said it plans 3,000 job cuts and a reduction in staff unit costs, but faces union resistance in a number of markets.

In the memo sent on Friday, Ryanair director of operations Neal McMahon told pilots the union council representing Irish pilots had walked away from talks on Wednesday, something the Forsa trade union denied.

McMahon said a union request for an extension of a 30-day consultation on job cuts represented “stalling tactics.”

Instead, the memo sent on the company’s internal messaging system, asked pilots to click a button to accept proposals including a 20 percent pay cut that would be reversed gradually within four years, a spreading of available work via job shares and unpaid leave, and “productivity improvements.”

It said the number of job losses, and whether bases at Cork and Shannon airports remained open would depend on the number of acceptances.

A Ryanair spokeswoman said she had “nothing further to add to that memo.”

Trade union Forsa, in a memo to pilots on Friday, said Ryanair’s latest proposal was unacceptable as it would effectively leave pilots temporarily on zero-hour contracts and provided no guarantee job losses would be avoided.

Forsa said it had requested third-party mediation, but had not received a reply.

Ryanair, which is reopening much of its network on July 1, says it needs to cut staff costs to compete with rivals that have received state bailouts.

Union representatives have pointed to management comments about expansion opportunities likely to be triggered by the retrenchment of rivals in the wake of COVID-19.

Jude13

Emirates opening up from 07 July. I have a few pals flying with them back to Dublin on 01 July and 04 July so lets see if they actually get home. Once home I believe its 14 days quarantine.

California Dreamer

Jude13 wrote: »

Emirates opening up from 07 July. I have a few pals flying with them back to Dublin on 01 July and 04 July so lets see if they actually get home. Once home I believe its 14 days quarantine.

Self isolation not quarantine.

But you can expect to see that lifted in July depending on the country they are coming from.

Jude13

Fingers crossed. We are thinking of jumping on a plane home on the 10th, however we have red tape this end to get approvals to fly/return.

California Dreamer

Jude13 wrote: »

Fingers crossed. We are thinking of jumping on a plane home on the 10th, however we have red tape this end to get approvals to fly/return.

Depends where you are. But restriction in Qatar are well tight till September. You can get home but just won't get back in!

Jude13

I have just received approval to return from the government authority. Things change so fast.

smurfjed

I’m west of you, we can leave on repatriation flights but there is no way back, with the present daily rates there is no sign of international flights opening in the near future.

Hope its a cool summer

Nijmegen

Blut2 wrote: »

We have a completely open land border to the UK, the country with Europe's worst infection rate currently. Tens of thousands of people cross back and forth every day, with no checks or tests of any sort. Given that corona was always going get back in, even if we kept or keep the airport completely closed. It not getting back in was never an option.

Very true. But two things can be true at once - that we have an open land border with the UK that is a threat vector (though NI diverged from the rest of the UK in their handling of this a few months ago and they look a lot more like us in how they’re handling it, versus England crapping in burger boxes at the beach); and traveling to Spain etc on holidays could create a new threat vector.

As to the point (sorry on mobile can’t multiquote) that NPHET is only raising the travel alarm now, I’m not sure how long it takes them to collect these statistics and release them...? Also I guess it’s relevant because we’re now in a new and much freer phase.

Meanwhile, in South Korea they’ve climbed back to 42 new cases, 24 in Seoul of which 12 are linked to foreign travel and the health minister is saying they will reintroduce social distancing restrictions if it keeps up. From Korea to Texas, when it gets going again all the nice words about opening up are replaced with public health officials and politicians slamming the breaks again.

https://www.thejournal.ie/south-korea-considers-new-lockdown-measures-5135635-Jun2020/

Re Ryanair needing cuts even if they’re opening up routes, remember when Michael O’Leary was telling us that coronavirus wasn’t going to be a problem at all? They’re good at saying one thing whilst being perfectly sane, rational and able to plan for what’s likely to occur. They need to talk up the safety and viability of travel (not just flight) and sure isn’t everyone going it’ll be grand... meanwhile, actually look at what’s likely to occur and right size the business.

Cookiemunster

South Korea has been averaging around 40 new cases a day since early May. 42 yesterday was actually down on 62 the day before. And that's 40 new cases a day in a population of 50m. I'd advise actually looking at their figures rather than taking your news from the Journal. And the US can't be said to be seeing new cases after reopening in the same way as anywhere in Europe or Asia as they reopened way too early before the disease was in any way under control.

IngazZagni

smurfjed wrote: »

If Ryanair are restarting “much of its network” on July 01st, it is obviously expecting the traffic to be there, so why are these requested cuts necessary ?

It's at times like these that this lot show their true colours. It never ceases to amaze me the lows they will go to in order to get their way. This is the ultimate divide and conquer tactic. Basically telling the Dublin pilots if you don't accept these long term pay and conditions cuts that resembles a zero hour contract in the next few days then not only is your own job at risk but we will sack your colleagues in Shannon and Cork as well. When someone has a family to feed and a mortgage to pay It's very difficult to call their bluff.

Irish employment law allows this and our leaders allow this.

Jude13

smurfjed wrote: »

I’m west of you, we can leave on repatriation flights but there is no way back, with the present daily rates there is no sign of international flights opening in the near future.

Hope its a cool summer

Well at present we can get back (I'm going from the UAE not Kuwait this time). Let's see if I get stuck in Ireland. I received the email today from the KSA embassy in relation to the one way flights. Glad I am out of there to be honest. I hope you and the madra keep well.

Noxegon

I'm surprised this hasn't gotten more attention:

Italy's aviation regulator has announced complete ban on use of overhead luggage lockers for all flights

https://www.thelocal.it/20200626/italy-bans-all-hand-luggae-on-flights-for-safety-reasons

goingnowhere

Great... force everyone to stand in a queue at the airport, deal face to face with someone to check the stuff in.

Whole pile of staff to handle the bag, stand around waiting for the bag to show up at the far end. Nice and cold in the hold as well.

A little bit of sensible boarding management would go far.

Seems to favour Alitalia over the LCC's as FR and U2 will struggle with turnarounds and check in requirements.

is_that_so

goingnowhere wrote: »

Great... force everyone to stand in a queue at the airport, deal face to face with someone to check the stuff in.

Whole pile of staff to handle the bag, stand around waiting for the bag to show up at the far end. Nice and cold in the hold as well.

A little bit of sensible boarding management would go far.

Seems to favour Alitalia over the LCC's as FR and U2 will struggle with turnarounds and check in requirements.

I can't say I blame Italy at all, given their awful experience. Aren't all airports going to be masks everywhere anyway? I'd hazard a guess that numbers travelling will be fairly low anyway.

Jude13

Noxegon wrote: »

I'm surprised this hasn't gotten more attention:

Italy's aviation regulator has announced complete ban on use of overhead luggage lockers for all flights

https://www.thelocal.it/20200626/italy-bans-all-hand-luggae-on-flights-for-safety-reasons

Emirates have done the same. No carry on bag unless you can stow it under the seat.

Zonda999

https://www.dublinairport.com/flight-information/live-departures

Might seem like a silly post but as of today you can see the level of departures ex Dublin airport from this Wednesday July 1st, it will certainly be a big increase versus today. I see that Aer Lingus are relaunching their flights to Faro and Malaga in addition to the many Ryanair flights.

Irish Steve

While face covering is required, gloves are not being used, and are likely to be a bigger risk than not using them. Having said that, unless the aircraft are treated between each sector, there is a significant issue with the locking mechanism of overhead bins, unless people are going to carry sanitiser in their hand luggage to use after boarding and leaving the aircraft. The same can also be said for hold luggage, depending on how the handlers actually handle the individual bags, though most of the time, depending on the size, the handles are not the first choice for getting the bags in and out of the hold, most of the time it's a 2 handed operaration due to the restricted space in the hold, and the way that bags are stacked on the transport system.

There's no easy answer to some of these issues, it will all be down to the problem of hand contact with any hard surface. Even handrails on air stairs are an issue, and operators like Ryanair won't happily be forced into using jetways, unless the airports waive the fee for using contact stands.

Widdensushi

The information at the moment is leading to it being very difficult to catch it from a surface,probably be different again tomorrow

Blut2

Irish Steve wrote: »

While face covering is required, gloves are not being used, and are likely to be a bigger risk than not using them. Having said that, unless the aircraft are treated between each sector, there is a significant issue with the locking mechanism of overhead bins, unless people are going to carry sanitiser in their hand luggage to use after boarding and leaving the aircraft. The same can also be said for hold luggage, depending on how the handlers actually handle the individual bags, though most of the time, depending on the size, the handles are not the first choice for getting the bags in and out of the hold, most of the time it's a 2 handed operaration due to the restricted space in the hold, and the way that bags are stacked on the transport system.

There's no easy answer to some of these issues, it will all be down to the problem of hand contact with any hard surface. Even handrails on air stairs are an issue, and operators like Ryanair won't happily be forced into using jetways, unless the airports waive the fee for using contact stands.

A quick walkthrough with a disinfectant sprayer wouldn't add too much cost or delay time to turn arounds I'd imagine? This is on Southwest in the US:

https://i.imgur.com/fI6Bm1f.jpg

That would have a sizable impact on overhead bins etc.

Its something that I've long thought would be good to have done between flights in winter anyway, even before corona.

BZ

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/norwegian-air-scrubs-5-5-billion-order-for-boeing-max-787-jets/

Norwegian cancel the 97 aircraft they have on order with Boeing, 92 737max and 5 787s. Not sure how they have managed to survive the Covid crisis so far as it is. Think this only leaves them with 20 A321LR orders?

Kcormahs

TAP air Portugal be re-nationalised

https://www.google.pt/amp/s/tvi24.iol.pt/amp/economia/30-06-2020/tap-vai-ser-nacionalizada

Cookiemunster

Kcormahs wrote: »

TAP air Portugal be re-nationalised

https://www.google.pt/amp/s/tvi24.iol.pt/amp/economia/30-06-2020/tap-vai-ser-nacionalizada

That is an option, but is not definitely going to happen according to the Portuguese Infrastructure Minister.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-portugal-tap/talks-on-rescue-loan-for-portugals-tap-airline-ongoing-minister-says-idUSKBN2411VN


And the Portuguese government are already the majority shareholder, owning 50% of the company.

TheDriver

Isn't there some amount of warnings suddenly coming on stream from all the experts re travel. Have they suddenly realised the number booked on flights is bigger than they expected?

Zonda999

TheDriver wrote: »

Isn't there some amount of warnings suddenly coming on stream from all the experts re travel. Have they suddenly realised the number booked on flights is bigger than they expected?

It has almost come out of nowhere versus last week. It all seems to be on the back of an apparent rise in confirmed cases here from those who have travelled from elsewhere. There is no shortage of discussion of this in the Covid forum but the consensus seems to be that the majority of cases have come from those who have travelled from countries not even in Europe.

If this is the case then we are in a very strange situation whereby people are being told to shelve their travel plans despite there being very little proof people holidaying abroad is bringing any significant number of cases back to Ireland. Maybe it also has something to do with the increase in flights from tomorrow (Ryanair have over 50 departures ex DUB tomorrow) and the fact that some of these flights, i assume are part of travel plans booked pre covid and now people are hopeful of actually travelling.

bk

Zonda999 wrote: »

It has almost come out of nowhere versus last week. It all seems to be on the back of an apparent rise in confirmed cases here from those who have travelled from elsewhere. There is no shortage of discussion of this in the Covid forum but the consensus seems to be that the majority of cases have come from those who have travelled from countries not even in Europe.

It certainly did not come out of nowhere!

Mid last week, there was a bunch of articles in newspapers from our various airlines, attempting to put pressure on the government to remove restrictions and get rid of the quarantine.

The day after the articles, the CMO came out said international travel was still unsafe and pointing out that they already had a number of Covid19 cases introduced from abroad by air travel.

Since then there has been a chorus of voices from the public health and scientific community warning that we shouldn't be opening our borders to unrestricted travel, that this situation is far from over and it simply isn't safe to travel.

I don't think our public health people and government ministers can be any clearer. The CMO, NPHET, Taoiseach, Tanaiste, Minister for Heath and Minister for Foreign Affairs have all said the same thing multiple times over the past week. The situation is far from over, it isn't safe to travel abroad and you should plan on staycations.

bk

BTW It has been confirmed that travel from the US (and other countries) to EU is now banned:

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0630/1150484-coronavirus-europe/

It isn't clear yet if this is Schengen only or includes Ireland too.

LXFlyer

I have to admit I don’t think that this is coming out of nowhere.

For one it has been made abundantly clear from the get go that unless travel is approved to a country by the government, virtually all travel insurance policies won’t cover you in the event of something going wrong.

We still don’t know where may be removed from the DFA travel advisory warning list yet.

That alone would give me cause for concern about travelling abroad.