Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

bk

LXFlyer wrote: »

For one it has been made abundantly clear from the get go that unless travel is approved to a country by the government, virtually all travel insurance policies won’t cover you in the event of something going wrong.

Good point, from the perspective of possible US citizens travelling to Ireland, the current Global Travel advisory is "Threat Level 4: Do Not Travel".

If I'm not mistaken, this means not only would their travel insurance be void, but so would their health insurance. Given the cost of health care for US Citizens, that would be a major concern for them. They would be mad to travel.

Plus on returning to the US from Europe, they have to quarantine for 14 days. EU citizens of course are still banned from travelling to the US.

So really not much has changed.

Blut2

TheDriver wrote: »

Isn't there some amount of warnings suddenly coming on stream from all the experts re travel. Have they suddenly realised the number booked on flights is bigger than they expected?

Last Saturday was apparently the busiest day for online travel bookings ever, in history, for a lot of firms in the UK:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8464769/Families-book-summer-getaways-air-bridges-open-travel-operators-slash-prices-70.html

It seems people are a lot more willing to fly than was expected. Its great news for the aviation industry.

stephenjmcd

bk wrote: »

BTW It has been confirmed that travel from the US (and other countries) to EU is now banned:

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0630/1150484-coronavirus-europe/

It isn't clear yet if this is Schengen only or includes Ireland too.

Its non binding for us, up to Ireland to implement.

We're an outlier in Europe with for example, Denmark, Netherlands and Germany all advising against non essential travel to Ireland due to the 14 day self isolation but we're welcome to travel outbound into these 3 countries.

It would be easier for a German to enter Rwanda than Dublin at the moment. First time thats ever been said

bk

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Its non binding for us, up to Ireland to implement.

True, though reading the details from the EU, it doesn't seem to be legally binding for any EU country, rather it is a recommendation. Though it seems that almost all countries have agreed to it anyway.

If anything, it seems that it is more of a minimum bar and member states can opt to be more restrictive then it if they want (e.g. Czech Traffic light system).

I don't see any reason to think that Ireland would be any less restrictive then this. I can't see the government opening up unrestricted travel to the US, when the rest of Europe is banning them, that would be impossible to explain to the people of Ireland and would be political suicide.

I do expect we will see reductions of restrictions on travel within Europe over the next few weeks.

I suspect our biggest problem is the UK. The UK is far from having this under control, but we have so much travel from the UK and it would look bad to open up travel to the rest of Europe, but not the UK. That would cause political issues. It has been easier for them to just maintain an across the board quarantine. I do think that will change though, if things continue to go well.

stephenjmcd

bk wrote: »

True, though reading the details from the EU, it doesn't seem to be legally binding for any EU country, rather it is a recommendation. Though it seems that almost all countries have agreed to it anyway.

If anything, it seems that it is more of a minimum bar and member states can opt to be more restrictive then it if they want (e.g. Czech Traffic light system).

I don't see any reason to think that Ireland would be any less restrictive then this. I can't see the government opening up unrestricted travel to the US, when the rest of Europe is banning them, that would be impossible to explain to the people of Ireland and would be political suicide.

I do expect we will see reductions of restrictions on travel within Europe over the next few weeks.

I suspect our biggest problem is the UK. The UK is far from having this under control, but we have so much travel from the UK and it would look bad to open up travel to the rest of Europe, but not the UK. That would cause political issues. It has been easier for them to just maintain an across the board quarantine. I do think that will change though, if things continue to go well.

I agree dont be opening up to the US. Personally I'd have no issue with travel within the EU. Anything outside should be subject to a do not travel

Inquitus

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I agree dont be opening up to the US. Personally I'd have no issue with travel within the EU. Anything outside should be subject to a do not travel

I'd ban the UK for now as well, until they sort their shíte out.

Tenzor07

Inquitus wrote: »

I'd ban the UK for now as well, until they sort their shíte out.

Banning UK citizens from travelling to the EU would also have a direct impact on Ireland, so careful what you wish for.

These Lockdown bans on entire countries has a massive effect on Aviation, tourism and hospitality and affects close on 500,000+ Irish workers either directly or indirectly.

Jack1985

I find it quite ironic we find ourselves in a similar situation to the whole mask’s episode with this public airing of views by NPHET. One lessening the percentage change of transmission (very low uptake as a result of public discussion) and the current situation which essentially has a whole industry up for play.

Shocking way to conduct policy, don't see it changing anytime soon especially if elected Politicians continue to demonstrate that they are being led and not leading.

TheDriver

bk wrote: »

the CMO came out said international travel was still unsafe

and you should plan on staycations.

Herein lies my mistrust. Dr. Tony is always saying things are unsafe. Our former Minister Humphreys and Dr. Tony are tagging the staycation line far too quickly to the don't fly line.
A lot of people have their money tied up in foreign holidays and can't staycation. Insurance won't cover them (for those that have it).
Is it any more unsafe than all the house parties and packed funerals that we are seeing? I'm seeing very few with masks on around the place.

Elaine762

With the way things are going... USA only getting worse... DR Tony telling everyone to cancel bookings.... against Air Travel.... our national airline will go down the sink in private hands! Shame on Fianna Gael for selling their 25% share to IAG and Fianna Fail for the privatisation!! Aer Lingus should be re-nationalised or the State should take a stake in the airline!!!! Lufthansa, Air France, Klm, TAP, Alitalia, Tarom, they all have governement ownership (either in full or partial)!!!! Let's open our eyes, we need an airline that protects the interest of our People and our connections! We are an island!

Blut2

Jack1985 wrote: »

I find it quite ironic we find ourselves in a similar situation to the whole mask’s episode with this public airing of views by NPHET. One lessening the percentage change of transmission (very low uptake as a result of public discussion) and the current situation which essentially has a whole industry up for play.

Shocking way to conduct policy, don't see it changing anytime soon especially if elected Politicians continue to demonstrate that they are being led and not leading.

Thats the thing. Actually requiring people to wear masks, and enforcing it, would be the number one most effective policy the government could implement right now to prevent/slow transmission. Its scientifically proven to make a huge difference to transmission rates, its incredibly easy effort-wise for people, and it costs almost nothing. Yet if you go for a walk around Dublin tomorrow, or hop on a bus or DART, I'd say maybe 20% of people are wearing masks - at most.

But I guess campaigning for mask wearing isn't sexy optics. Or maybe the government are afraid of an America-style backlash against it? It must be something. I honestly have no idea why NPHET and/or government ministers aren't in the media daily trying to increase awareness of this. Because they clearly have the time to comment about less serious issues, like travel to countries in Europe with lower infection rates than Ireland.

All the people calling for the complete closure of borders etc would be far better off lobbying the government to actually do something about mask usage - if they want to make the biggest impact.

bk

TheDriver wrote: »

Herein lies my mistrust. Dr. Tony is always saying things are unsafe. Our former Minister Humphreys and Dr. Tony are tagging the staycation line far too quickly to the don't fly line.
A lot of people have their money tied up in foreign holidays and can't staycation. Insurance won't cover them (for those that have it).

Given that the entire EU has just banned travel to and from the US, along with a bunch of other countries, it clearly isn't just Dr. Tony who thinks this, but the governments and health services of almost every EU country.

TheDriver

bk wrote: »

Given that the entire EU has just banned travel to and from the US, along with a bunch of other countries, it clearly isn't just Dr. Tony who thinks this, but the governments and health services of almost every EU country.

I concur completely about obvious hotspots but we seem to be doing some serious last minute scare talk when the horse has bolted. Guilting people into not travelling is not the solution as it is again trying to get to the people who have been so compliant up to now. They should have seen this coming when other countries said they were opening for tourism weeks ago.

Nijmegen

There seems to have been a split in the caretaker cabinet about making the 2 weeks isolation a mandatory and enforced thing. I wonder how much of that carries over to the new one?

I suspect the government is trying to walk the line between public health arguments and not getting caught themselves for the cost of ordering stricter measures. For example FBD was trying to get out of business interruption insurance claims by arguing in court that the government never actually enforced business closures with legislation.

The problem is that it's an evolving situation and one rule doesn't fit every country equally. So for example, the UK is a shambles - they're actively going backwards in their lockdowns in places because the virus is spiking again. If we and other European countries have people from the UK actively heading abroad, we're going to see cases spike here - We'll have people from the UK coming in here and we'll have our people mixing with them abroad down in Spain etc.

I think on this forum we're obviously very focused on people catching Covid on the plane, but it's the two weeks they spend at their destination that is more a worry I would say. And again this is an evolving situation - Countries that rely on tourism opening back up to it can talk a good game about social distancing, but we've actually yet to see hordes of holidaymakers interacting and observing - or not observing - social distancing in bars and all the rest of it. We have seen cases spike in parts of the US where they re-opened bars and restaurants, we have seen in the UK there's a sizable population of people who think its grand to mingle in beach towns, etc etc. The risk is real.

I watched the RTE program inside James's during the height of Covid. I know a lot of people give Dr TH a hard time and I see a lot of online commentary turning against him and NPHET, but if you're him you basically have to live with the responsibility for the advice you give or don't give. What went on in our hospital ICUs during the height of Covid, and what's still going on in many parts of the world, was and is harrowing. I don't think the members of NPHET would be doing their jobs nor would they be able to live with themselves if they didn't highlight the very clear dangers of international travel. It's easy for us to say that we must re-open and bear perhaps some cost in transmission and lives for the sake of the economy, but if I was sitting in the hot seat? I think I'd say stay at home.

Nijmegen

Sorry to post after myself, but this story is just incredible and highlights the sort of thing NPHET is screaming about.

A family of 3 arrive back in Sligo from abroad, fill in their little form, then go and have dinner with the rest of their family and now up to 14 people are covid positive in the same cluster, one family member has a local business he has shut the doors of, risk to staff and customers... His brother is quoted in the article saying that the man and his family did everything right and were going to self isolate..... After the dinner....?

Textbook case if ever there was one?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/up-to-14-members-of-the-same-iraqi-family-at-centre-of-covid-cluster-in-sligo-1008362.html

VG31

Nijmegen wrote: »

Sorry to post after myself, but this story is just incredible and highlights the sort of thing NPHET is screaming about.

A family of 3 arrive back in Sligo from abroad, fill in their little form, then go and have dinner with the rest of their family and now up to 14 people are covid positive in the same cluster, one family member has a local business he has shut the doors of, risk to staff and customers... His brother is quoted in the article saying that the man and his family did everything right and were going to self isolate..... After the dinner....?

Textbook case if ever there was one?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/up-to-14-members-of-the-same-iraqi-family-at-centre-of-covid-cluster-in-sligo-1008362.html

You left out the fact that they came from Iraq. I don't think anyone is disputing that mandatory isolation should remain for unsafe countries Covid-wise.

Nijmegen

VG31 wrote: »

You left out the fact that they came from Iraq. I don't think anyone is disputing that mandatory isolation should remain for unsafe countries Covid-wise.

I was more thinking about the absolutely stupid things that people are doing. We could see clusters like this from the UK soon.

Kermit.de.frog

It's a shame we are so vulnerable to the UK here.

Other countries will be lumping us automatically in with them as a result of the common travel area, a concept I feel Ireland needs to move away from and more toward Shengen.

But I guess that's an argument for another thread.

TheDriver

Aviation seems to be this week's scapegoat. A convenient showing of scary peak times in the hospital this week and lots of "calls" for flight cancellation but thats about it.
Yet we have bus eireann not enforcing the mandatory mask rule, pubs open without food, funerals taking place with lots of people (including politicians who tell us to not go to funerals) etc etc. It's getting tiresome. Everyone has a vested interest.

There was a chat on the radio this morning about US tourists in Killarney who arrived into Belfast. It sounded genuine. unlike a lot of EU countries, our rules are getting more and more of a joke with little compliance anymore. It's time they moved on from the "horrible air in a 737" chat and tackle the real issues i.e. wearing masks in shops/buses/closed areas

Nijmegen

TheDriver wrote: »

Aviation seems to be this week's scapegoat. A convenient showing of scary peak times in the hospital this week and lots of "calls" for flight cancellation but thats about it.
Yet we have bus eireann not enforcing the mandatory mask rule, pubs open without food, funerals taking place with lots of people (including politicians who tell us to not go to funerals) etc etc. It's getting tiresome. Everyone has a vested interest.

There was a chat on the radio this morning about US tourists in Killarney who arrived into Belfast. It sounded genuine. unlike a lot of EU countries, our rules are getting more and more of a joke with little compliance anymore. It's time they moved on from the "horrible air in a 737" chat and tackle the real issues i.e. wearing masks in shops/buses/closed areas

This was posted a few days ago, but it clearly shows that travel is becoming an increased driver of infection here:

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1277206296106844166?s=20

Meanwhile, in the UK...

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1278319840705630209?s=20

Cookiemunster

Nijmegen wrote: »

I was more thinking about the absolutely stupid things that people are doing. We could see clusters like this from the UK soon.

We have a very long open land border with the UK. Unless that is shut (which is impossible) then the 14 day self isolation for incoming air passengers is pointless.

Inquitus

Cookiemunster wrote: »

We have a very long open land border with the UK. Unless that is shut (which is impossible) then the 14 day self isolation for incoming air passengers is pointless.

Not many holiday makers are going to fly into Belfast, or take the Ferry, so it would accomplish a large percentage of its goal imho.

Nijmegen

Cookiemunster wrote: »

We have a very long open land border with the UK. Unless that is shut (which is impossible) then the 14 day self isolation for incoming air passengers is pointless.

Is it, though? What impact does us having a land border with the UK have on a passenger who flies back from his holidays in Spain with Covid and gives it to his family? Two things can be true at once and the spread of the virus is highly sensitive to the number of cases that exist, ie opportunities for spread.

I hear a lot of people throwing their arms in the air saying "Oh well this is wrong, so why bother with that", and it doesn't logically follow.

Cookiemunster

Nijmegen wrote: »

Is it, though? What impact does us having a land border with the UK have on a passenger who flies back from his holidays in Spain with Covid and gives it to his family? Two things can be true at once and the spread of the virus is highly sensitive to the number of cases that exist, ie opportunities for spread.

I hear a lot of people throwing their arms in the air saying "Oh well this is wrong, so why bother with that", and it doesn't logically follow.

Have you looked at the infection rates in the UK recently? They're the worst performing country in Europe. There are daily flights from Belfast to London, which as we saw during the lockdown are regularly full and other places in the UK. There is a much larger chance of infected people entering the country from the UK and not having to fill out any forms or self isolate, than there is entering via the airports from somewhere in Europe.

BTW the rules are much stricter in Spain (and other EU countries) than here. Face masks are obligatory in public spaces (even walking down the street) when you can't social distance and are also required to access places like shops and cafés. Spanish beaches are enforcing social distancing. You will be dealing with the police if you ignore the rules over there.

I think most countries would be more worried about us travelling there. We're currently on the banned list for Denmark along with Sweden and the UK.

Nijmegen

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Have you looked at the infection rates in the UK recently? They're the worst performing country in Europe. There are daily flights from Belfast to London, which as we saw during the lockdown are regularly full and other places in the UK. There is a much larger chance of infected people entering the country from the UK and not having to fill out any forms or self isolate, than there is entering via the airports from somewhere in Europe.

BTW the rules are much stricter in Spain (and other EU countries) than here. Face masks are obligatory in public spaces (even walking down the street) when you can't social distance and are also required to access places like shops and cafés. Spanish beaches are enforcing social distancing. You will be dealing with the police if you ignore the rules over there.

I think most countries would be more worried about us travelling there. We're currently on the banned list for Denmark along with Sweden and the UK.

I suppose what I'm saying is, both those things can be true at once and in the case that the very new opening of Spain (for example) didn't go as well as planned for we will import incrementally more cases into the country than we would if we waited a few weeks to see how it panned out down there. And if on a given day you have 20 instead of 10 new cases because you incrementally brought back people from travel to places other than across the border from the UK, that will contribute to a significantly larger overall outbreak.

I'm advocating caution in time on creating incremental vectors for the disease to spread, and btw I think we should have been a lot harder on the NI border from the beginning and agree with you it's a major problem.

Deatr

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Have you looked at the infection rates in the UK recently? They're the worst performing country in Europe. There are daily flights from Belfast to London, which as we saw during the lockdown are regularly full and other places in the UK. There is a much larger chance of infected people entering the country from the UK and not having to fill out any forms or self isolate, than there is entering via the airports from somewhere in Europe.

BTW the rules are much stricter in Spain (and other EU countries) than here. Face masks are obligatory in public spaces (even walking down the street) when you can't social distance and are also required to access places like shops and cafés. Spanish beaches are enforcing social distancing. You will be dealing with the police if you ignore the rules over there.

I think most countries would be more worried about us travelling there. We're currently on the banned list for Denmark along with Sweden and the UK.

Not dismissing what you said here however if you check the following website it shows that we are not in fact banned entry to Denmark!
https://politi.dk/en/coronavirus-in-denmark/travelling-in-or-out-of-denmark/is-my-country-open-or-banned

Irish Steve

Social separation in another country is still possible, albeit becoming harder as more people are released from staying at home, but that is only the thin end of the wedge.

The worry regarding air travel is that even with face coverings, droplets will escape, and spread around the cabin of an aircraft, which is a very much more confined space than even the airport terminal, and with the airflow from the circulation system, possibly enhanced by the use of overhead vents, those droplets will spread, and they will not be neutralised by the filters until they are drawn into them, which could be some time.

The real problem is that it is now clear that people can have no symptoms of Covid, and can spread the infection, for several days before the symptoms become apparent, so the cabin of an aircraft, especially on a longer flight, is the worst case scenario for unknowingly spreading the infection to a large number of people, and the carriers will not be showing any symptoms even after the flight, so it may be a number of days before they are detected, by which time, the rest of the people that were on the flight will have had more than enough opportunity to incubate and possibly spread the infection over a wide area. To make it worse, depending on the severity of the symptoms, the original carriers may not present to a doctor or health service, or (worse) may no longer be here in Ireland to present to the medical services, so their infection may not be known about for a number of days, if the system for international notifications is not robust and working, so contact tracing may not happen with enough urgency to prevent additional infection

Life would be so much easier if the infection was only transmissible after symptoms are evident, but that is not the case we are dealing with, so there is unfortunately the very real risk that a large number of people may become infected by someone who doesn't even know they are the carrier, and that is why the relevant medical people are very concerned about the risks of allowing air travel to start again.

That risk, along with the risks being presented by some very inappropriate attitudes and behaviour by a number of groups of people mean that there is very possible that there will be a second and possibly bigger wave of infection happening very quickly.

There are some less than helpful attitudes being shown by insurers and others, which mean that things may go very badly wrong for a lot of people, I know I'd be very unhappy to be facing the loss of several thousand Euro as a result of a lack of clarity and appropriate refund schemes.

Tenzor07

Irish Steve wrote: »

The worry regarding air travel is that even with face coverings, droplets will escape, and spread around the cabin of an aircraft, which is a very much more confined space than even the airport terminal, and with the airflow from the circulation system, possibly enhanced by the use of overhead vents, those droplets will spread, and they will not be neutralised by the filters until they are drawn into them, which could be some time..

I'm sure you copied this from a reliable online Journal, however in reality you're more likely to get Covid on the Bus or train on the way to the airport.

I mean if you pop off the mask and walk along the cabin coughing and you're infected then the chances of droplets spreading is higher.

But what you have said just doesn't hold water, sit beside someone coughing and sneezing openly or if you touch a surface they have touched with their hand after coughing or sneezing into it and then you touch your face then yes you do have a higher risk, but the virus being carried around by the cabin air system??

Jack1985

Fantastic to see Dr John Lambert consultant in Infectious diseases at the HSE on Virgin Media now questioning why blanket bans without data are being spouted to the public - Stating himself that you can't confuse countries with lower risk compared to even here as a collective group including a state like Florida.

It's about time the bulls*it stopped.

fr336

How full do we think the flights newly operating today are? Must be okay otherwise they'd be cancelled right? Uptick in activity here in Luton out my left hand window but nothing like back to normal. Think there's only the one daily flight to Dublin and Belfast now whereas usually it could be four a day. And no return for Cork or Kerry yet.