Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Cookiemunster

MickeyLeari wrote: »

That is my understanding but I think we are facing another lock down. That will atop people taking holidays.

We're not. There won't be another national lockdown. They may well be localised ones like in Leicester or Melbourne, but there won't be another national one.

And nobody who went on holidays from July 1st will be back yet, never mind having shown symptoms and been tested.

Van.Bosch

Nijmegen wrote: »

This was posted a few pages back. New Zealand is doing precisely that - it is limiting the number of its own citizens who can return to the country per day.

Yeah but I doubt we would do that - not saying we should/shouldn’t but doubt the govt. would have the balls

LXFlyer

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Yeah but I doubt we would do that - not saying we should/shouldn’t but doubt the govt. would have the balls

Given that we have an open land border with Northern Ireland which no government could attempt to close, and NI has freedom of movement with GB, it’s not a question of whether the government has the “balls”, that kind of restriction would be impossible to deliver.

The political and geographical relationship with NI means that we don’t have the kind of abilities that New Zealand has.

dfx-

Nijmegen wrote: »

This probably isn’t going to help aviation if it keeps happening. 15 of 23 cases notified today associated with overseas travel and the R rate is at or above 1.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1281278965026619392?s=21

why is the country hyperventilating about 23 cases and other single digit cases days? We had a 'spike' in cases that was in total 8 earlier in the week. These sorts of numbers have been the same for a month or more, it's not a huge increase.

Is 23 cases unmanageable?

HTCOne

Nijmegen wrote: »

This was posted a few pages back. New Zealand is doing precisely that - it is limiting the number of its own citizens who can return to the country per day.

It’s been pointed out several times in this thread that we can’t be compared to New Zealand because they don’t have an open land border with one of the worst affected countries in the world.

We’re going round in circles here folks.....

EchoIndia

dfx- wrote: »

why is the country hyperventilating about 23 cases and other single digit cases days? We had a 'spike' in cases that was in total 8 earlier in the week. These sorts of numbers have been the same for a month or more, it's not a huge increase.

Is 23 cases unmanageable?

No, but the question is whether it can be kept at that level as society continues to open up and people travel more domestically and internationally.

goingnowhere

We had several days of 20-25 last week. This is the new normal, thats 7 per 100,000/2 weeks and that not half bad.

The simplest solution to this entire mess is ban travel from a list of countries if you have spent even 1 minute there in the last 14 days. This is not an uncommon protocol. Stop people getting on planes in the first place. Looking at the list from last week where travel cases came from it read as a list of hot spot countries...

It is madness we have NO restrictions, anyone from anywhere can fly here. Why are we unwilling to take appropriate steps to protect ourselves. Had we set down some rules we would have prevented a significant number of recent cases

Basically allow only EEA less Portugal, UK, Sweden. New Zealand would be fine for example but they have no direct flights so unless they transit a safe EU country, sorry...

Gaoth Laidir

On a local note, I was surprised to see a light aircraft taking off from Weston this morning, given that the last time I read the notams the airport was down as closed until July 30th. The latest notams don't mention that, however, but do state that there is no ATC from 07:15 to 15:00Z today. The plane took off at around 07:45Z.

So is Weston back open now?

Latest notam.

Limpy

Thank **** the lads in the North have some sense. I'm gonna fly back to Belfast or via London to Ireland. Ireland's quarantine policy will be dictated by Boris and Arlene lol

Limpy

goingnowhere wrote: »

We had several days of 20-25 last week. This is the new normal, thats 7 per 100,000/2 weeks and that not half bad.

The simplest solution to this entire mess is ban travel from a list of countries if you have spent even 1 minute there in the last 14 days. This is not an uncommon protocol. Stop people getting on planes in the first place. Looking at the list from last week where travel cases came from it read as a list of hot spot countries...

It is madness we have NO restrictions, anyone from anywhere can fly here. Why are we unwilling to take appropriate steps to protect ourselves. Had we set down some rules we would have prevented a significant number of recent cases

Basically allow only EEA less Portugal, UK, Sweden. New Zealand would be fine for example but they have no direct flights so unless they transit a safe EU country, sorry...

Sorry to tell you but the North is part of the United Kingdom. There will never be a physical border between the North and South, remember Brexit negotiations. When Leo was playing a blinder about no border's.

LXFlyer

goingnowhere wrote: »

Basically allow only EEA less Portugal, UK, Sweden.

As I have already pointed out that is impossible, given that we have an open border with Northern Ireland which cannot be closed, and Northern Ireland has free movement with Great Britain, which again will not change.

We have to live with the political and geographic realities of our situation, which do mean that restricting movement from GB isn't realistic I'm afraid, as there is an open back door via Northern Ireland.

EchoIndia

Limpy wrote: »

Thank **** the lads in the North have some sense. I'm gonna fly back to Belfast or via London to Ireland. Ireland's quarantine policy will be dictated by Boris and Arlene lol

NI quarantine policy doesn't apply to the Republic. You would still be regarded as a person who has entered Ireland from overseas, even if you have chosen a circuitous route. Where does personal responsibility come in??

smurfjed

@gaoth laidir, Doesn’t it just become an uncontrolled airport if ATC aren’t operating?

Limpy

EchoIndia wrote: »

NI quarantine policy doesn't apply to the Republic. You would still be regarded as a person who has entered Ireland from overseas, even if you have chosen a circuitous route. Where does personal responsibility come in??

My personal responsibility is the same overseas as when i get a bus to work in Ireland or have lunch in the staff canteen. The virus is here to stay. Learn to live with it. Its your choice, but don't try guilt trip anyone who travels.

Nijmegen

dfx- wrote: »

why is the country hyperventilating about 23 cases and other single digit cases days? We had a 'spike' in cases that was in total 8 earlier in the week. These sorts of numbers have been the same for a month or more, it's not a huge increase.

Is 23 cases unmanageable?

It's about the transmission. Hong Kong announced today they're shutting all schools again because they have reached 30-40 cases per day. The reason they're doing this is because the virus transmission expands exponentially if it is transmitting in the community and we're all out and about. https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0710/1152444-world-covid19-coronavirus/

Their R number has climbed significantly in recent days https://covid19.sph.hku.hk/

Their mean estimate is 2.5 or so, up from a low of 0.15 on June 7. It was back above 1 by June 22 and has been stubbornly above 2 for about a week now.

Yesterday at the health briefing, we were told that ours has climbed now to at or above an R of 1. If that continues to climb in the coming days and stays high, ala Hong Kong, that's why you'll get further restrictions.

The neat thing about Covid is that we have always been a few weeks to a few months behind other parts of the world to get fairly predictable models of what's going to happen. Right down to the panic buying the day of the first restrictions / closing schools, which had happened in a bunch of places beforehand.

Limpy wrote: »

My personal responsibility is the same overseas as when i get a bus to work in Ireland or have lunch in the staff canteen. The virus is here to stay. Learn to live with it. Its your choice, but don't try guilt trip anyone who travels.

That would be all well and good if your personal responsibility didn't have a societal knock on effect. If you travel and get sick and bring the virus home, the following things can happen to others who had no say in your choice:

1. You can transmit the virus to others, who may not have the same rude health as you
2. You may require hospitalisation, and as well as taking up resources you will be putting a health worker at high risk of contracting the virus
3. If you're among a large enough cohort of people doing it, restrictions may need to be brought in that shuts the economy down

Public health officials are begging people not to travel. Cases imported from travel are increasing and so is the reproductive number of the virus.

As to us vs Aus and NZ and the UK link, perfectly clear we have a problem if they're taking different steps and we're not prepared to control the border.

It feels as though government is afraid to take proactive steps - like banning vs advising against certain types of travel or enforcing isolation on arrival - because they don't want to get caught with the cost of it. I wonder what the cost of a second lockdown would be.

Meanwhile, in news that will delight Ryanair given they are unlikely to need state support: https://www.thejournal.ie/eamon-ryan-airlines-5145708-Jul2020/

LXFlyer

Limpy wrote: »

My personal responsibility is the same overseas as when i get a bus to work in Ireland or have lunch in the staff canteen. The virus is here to stay. Learn to live with it. Its your choice, but don't try guilt trip anyone who travels.

I don't think that poster is "guilt tripping" anyone who travels - we are perfectly free to do so, even though it's not recommended right now.

And we all do indeed have to live with the virus.

But what the new normal does involve is all of us taking responsibility for our actions.

That extends to observing quarantine periods if the State introduces them, even if you take an indirect route from a country on a quarantine list to Ireland.

Otherwise, frankly, you are showing two fingers to the rest of us.

Cookiemunster

Nijmegen wrote: »

It's about the transmission. Hong Kong announced today they're shutting all schools again because they have reached 30-40 cases per day. The reason they're doing this is because the virus transmission expands exponentially if it is transmitting in the community and we're all out and about. https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0710/1152444-world-covid19-coronavirus/

Their R number has climbed significantly in recent days https://covid19.sph.hku.hk/

Their mean estimate is 2.5 or so, up from a low of 0.15 on June 7. It was back above 1 by June 22 and has been stubbornly above 2 for about a week now.

Yesterday at the health briefing, we were told that ours has climbed now to at or above an R of 1. If that continues to climb in the coming days and stays high, ala Hong Kong, that's why you'll get further restrictions.

The neat thing about Covid is that we have always been a few weeks to a few months behind other parts of the world to get fairly predictable models of what's going to happen. Right down to the panic buying the day of the first restrictions / closing schools, which had happened in a bunch of places beforehand.



That would be all well and good if your personal responsibility didn't have a societal knock on effect. If you travel and get sick and bring the virus home, the following things can happen to others who had no say in your choice:

1. You can transmit the virus to others, who may not have the same rude health as you
2. You may require hospitalisation, and as well as taking up resources you will be putting a health worker at high risk of contracting the virus
3. If you're among a large enough cohort of people doing it, restrictions may need to be brought in that shuts the economy down

Public health officials are begging people not to travel. Cases imported from travel are increasing and so is the reproductive number of the virus.

As to us vs Aus and NZ and the UK link, perfectly clear we have a problem if they're taking different steps and we're not prepared to control the border.

It feels as though government is afraid to take proactive steps - like banning vs advising against certain types of travel or enforcing isolation on arrival - because they don't want to get caught with the cost of it. I wonder what the cost of a second lockdown would be.

Meanwhile, in news that will delight Ryanair given they are unlikely to need state support: https://www.thejournal.ie/eamon-ryan-airlines-5145708-Jul2020/

We are incomparable to Hong Kong. They have 7.5m people living in an area the same size as Co Limerick. It has the 4th highest population density in the world. NZ and Aus are also ridiculous comparisons. If you're going to make a comparison then do it with countries of similar size and population densities in the same part of the world.

And it's amazing that increasing travel is causing more cases seeing that anyone who traveled on holiday since Ryanair increased their flight numbers 10 days ago is either still on holiday or hasn't been back long enough to show symptoms, be tested and get the results back.

The ECDC and multiple EU governments are saying that inter EU travel doesn't increase the risk of transmission in any significant way. I'm not planning to travel, but I know I'd feel safer on the continent where mask wearing and social distancing is mandatory and enforced by law. Maybe we should sort out our own internal issues before locking down travel.

Cookiemunster

LXFlyer wrote: »

I don't think that poster is "guilt tripping" anyone who travels - we are perfectly free to do so, even though it's not recommended right now.

And we all do indeed have to live with the virus.

But what the new normal does involve is all of us taking responsibility for our actions.

That extends to observing quarantine periods if the State introduces them, even if you take an indirect route from a country on a quarantine list to Ireland.

Otherwise, frankly, you are showing two fingers to the rest of us.

Self isolation measures don't apply to anyone traveling from the North.

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/travel.html

MicK10rt

LXFlyer wrote: »

I don't think that poster is "guilt tripping" anyone who travels - we are perfectly free to do so, even though it's not recommended right now.

And we all do indeed have to live with the virus.

But what the new normal does involve is all of us taking responsibility for our actions.

That extends to observing quarantine periods if the State introduces them, even if you take an indirect route from a country on a quarantine list to Ireland.

Otherwise, frankly, you are showing two fingers to the rest of us.

Let those that are ill or at risk self isolate, let the rest of us get on with it. The young are less effected by the virus, the elderly and ill need to take their own measures. Virus here to stay, life goes on. We can't shield for ever. I would almost say this is survival of the fittest type of scenario. I am so sick of the kind of backward thinking, fixed mindset, scaremongering and general feebleness that exists behind every door in ireland. Get the airbridge in place, get the tourists back, globalisation is a great thing.

LXFlyer

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Self isolation measures don't apply to anyone traveling from the North.

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/travel.html

I know that - my earlier posts reference the open border.

I am referring to someone flying into NI from a country that is on the Irish government restricted list, and then travelling over the border into Ireland simply to avoid the quarantine rules that might be in place.

That's simply trying to get around a public health rule for the sake of it.

I do think that in those circumstances people do have a civic responsibility to the rest of society to observe the quarantine rules.

Cookiemunster

LXFlyer wrote: »

I know that - my earlier posts reference the open border.

I am referring to someone flying into NI from a country that is on the Irish government restricted list, and then travelling over the border into Ireland simply to avoid the quarantine rules that might be in place.

That's simply trying to get around a public health rule for the sake of it.

I do think that in those circumstances people do have a civic responsibility to the rest of society to observe the quarantine rules.

But NI has a green list. As does most of Europe. You've not broken any rules by flying into Belfast from a green listed destination and then traveling South without self isolating. I honestly don't see the point anymore of the Irish requirement.

smurfjed

Aircraft lessor Nordic Aviation Capital’s creditors have agreed to shelve repayments on its $6 billion (€5.3 billion) debt for up to 12 months, the company confirmed on Thursday.
Limerick-headquartered Nordic sought to defer repayment of part of the principal and interest that it owes after Covid-19 travel bans forced airlines to which it had leased aircraft to suspended rent due to the company.

The leasing companies are also getting hammered. Nordic have about 500 aircraft on their books.

LXFlyer

Cookiemunster wrote: »

But NI has a green list. As does most of Europe. You've not broken any rules by flying into Belfast from a green listed destination and then traveling South without self isolating. I honestly don't see the point anymore of the Irish requirement.

I imagine that will soon change, and we will see a green list introduced here. And I personally would agree with it. We are stuck, due to the land border with NI with having to follow on from whatever changes happen there and in GB.

Re flying into Belfast and then driving directly into Ireland, no you aren’t breaking the rules technically, but you are bending them to the extreme to get around public health measures. That argument is akin to getting off speeding charges on a technicality - it doesn’t mean that it’s right to do it in the first place.

At the end of the day, we either follow our country’s public health professional’s advice or we don’t. Maybe I’m old fashioned, but I’d like to think most people do.

Captain_Crash

LXFlyer wrote: »

I imagine that will soo n change, and we will see a green list introduced here. And I personally would agree with it. We are stuck, due to the land border with NI with having to follow on from whatever changes happen there and in GB.

Re flying into Belfast and then driving directly into Ireland, no you aren’t breaking the rules technically, but you are bending them to the extreme to get around public health measures. That argument is akin to getting off speeding charges on a technicality - it doesn’t mean that it’s right to do it in the first place.

At the end of the day, we either follow our country’s public health professional’s advice or we don’t. Maybe I’m old fashioned, but I’d like to think most people do.

I understand where your trying to come from and I agree with you with regards to the ethics of it. But someone doing that isn't even bending any rules let alone breaking them, they are in fact following them to the letter.

Arrive in NI from EU? allowed

Travel from NI to ROI without the requirement to self isolate? allowed
So people who do it may have a dodgy moral compass but not a single rule has been broken.

The speeding analogy doesn't fit because getting off a ticket on a technicality still means ya broke the law, it but they couldn't convict, where as the travel via NI, there is no rules broken (I use rules there as its not a law anyway, just rules)

LXFlyer

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I understand where your trying to come from and I agree with you with regards to the ethics of it. But someone doing that isn't even bending any rules let alone breaking them, they are in fact following them to the letter.

Arrive in NI from EU? allowed

Travel from NI to ROI without the requirement to self isolate? allowed
So people who do it may have a dodgy moral compass but not a single rule has been broken.

The speeding analogy doesn't fit because getting off a ticket on a technicality still means ya broke the law, it but they couldn't convict, where as the travel via NI, there is no rules broken (I use rules there as its not a law anyway, just rules)

We could go on and on about this.

My point all along is that we all have a social responsibility to each other in this country, irrespective of the law or rules.

By travelling via NI to avoid the quarantine rule for direct flights into Ireland you are pretty much putting two fingers up to the rest of society and not following the spirit of the rules.

Yes you can do it, and no you’re not breaking the rules, but is it following the spirit of the rules and showing respect for the rest of Irish society?

Call me old fashioned if you like, but in my opinion, no it’s not.

We all have a responsibility to each other during this pandemic and I believe that extends to following the spirit of the rules.

Irish Steve

I think it's time for a not so gentle reminder that this thread is a discussion thread about the impact of Covid on the aviation industry, NOT a tortuous and convoluted diatribe about the management of the border with NI and other jurisdictions.

With some of the comments that have come out of the relevant Government and Health people here, we may well see some significant changes over the coming days, it's clear that the trend of the numbers is not going in the right direction, and the profile of the age groups currently being impacted has changed, and not in a good way. Hopefully, that will also result in a change of the somewhat cavalier attitude that's being displayed by some, if it doesn't, the longer term implications will once again be somewhat thought provoking.

Nijmegen

smurfjed wrote: »

The leasing companies are also getting hammered. Nordic have about 500 aircraft on their books.

I wonder will creditors work with them, given their primary assets to be carved up in any bankruptcy will be the same airplanes they can't lease out, which have costs associated with maintenance.

It'll also be interesting to see how many perfectly serviceable aircraft go to the scrap heap in the short term if there's financial pressures that can't be bridged or worked through. This will have implications on the ability of the sector to bounce back and add capacity post-covid.

smurfjed

Nordic owes creditors $6 billion and has $2 billion in equity.

Sounds like the creditors didn’t have much choice.

Gaoth Laidir

smurfjed wrote: »

@gaoth laidir, Doesn’t it just become an uncontrolled airport if ATC aren’t operating?

I'm not sure. The NOTAMs always refer to hours of operation and don't mention hours of ATC's operation, like they do for the regionals. It was NOTAM'd to be closed until July 30th but that NOTAM is gone now so maybe it will reopen.

NFC had relocated their operations to Abbeyshrule for the month of July.

Jack1985

The Aviation Taskforce is calling on Government to release data in relation to imported travel related cases for full transparcency for the Public in relation to travel - They are also seeking full transparency by Government on the metrics and data being used to decide the constitution of the “Green List” and its periodic update as so proposed.

It's final document has been sent to Eamon Ryan and Hildegarde Naughton in the last hour, warning 140,000 highly-paid jobs are at risk and 8.7bn in GDP contributions to the Irish economy. Aviation lessors based in Ireland who account for 60% of global aircraft leasing are also signaling an alarm.