Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

DOCARCH

Jack1985 wrote: »

I've always wanted to go to Greece.

We (family) are booked to fly to Athens on Sunday. But 'she' will not let us go. Holiday = non essential (green list or no green list).

Qprmeath

Kcormahs wrote: »

The 30 days consultation between Aer Lingus and unions in regards to the 500 redundancies will be finished this week. Any update on this?

Not a word since rejected pay deal announced last Tuesday. Very quiet, not sure if that’s a good or bad thing.

Nijmegen

A bit of good news...

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1286352323258744832?s=20

Qprmeath

https://www.stobartair.com/cabin-crew-seniorjunior/

Stobart hiring in Belfast. More good news?

Jack1985

Qprmeath wrote: »

https://www.stobartair.com/cabin-crew-seniorjunior/

Stobart hiring in Belfast. More good news?

Good for them they are going ahead with the plans, they have a few ATR's from the Flybe deal that can be put to use.

As for the outlook generally it remains negative in the ROI.

Kcormahs

https://www.fm104.ie/news/fm104-news/fears-of-aer-lingus-closure-if-government-doesnt-step-in/

amazing interventions from capt cullen on the Oireachtas today about aviation and how the Irish government is completely ditching any help to the sector!
And in regards to no bailout to Aer Lingus for being IAG (private) owned capt Cullen very well said what about Lufthansa Klm AF BA Iberia among others getting either state bailouts or credit facilities and all private owned too! no excuse. for a government that is taking the step of keeping quarantines with extra measures compared to Europe guide lines, its shocking they arent even including the aviation in the package.
also very true remarks from SF on how wrong it was the sale of remaining share in EI in 2015 as now the government as 0 control.

NH2013

Dail committee on Covid-19’s effect on aviation this morning made for interesting listening.

Put quite starkly that Aer Lingus is burning through €1.5m every single day at the moment, primarily on aircraft leases and that without state support similar to BA, Iberia, Air France, KLM, TAP, Lufthansa, Alitalia, Ryanair etc it would likely enter liquidation within the coming months, a fairly stark representation of the situation.

Also interesting to learn that Ryanair has been given a £600m preferential loan by the British government but Aer Lingus yet to be offered any sort of assistance by the Irish government apart from the TWSS.

Also interesting to hear the numbers of state intervention involved, £300m for BA, €1bn for both Iberia and Vueling, €7bn for Lufthansa, €5bl for Air France and €3bl for KLM, raises the question what sort of cost to the taxpayer we’d be looking at to support Aer Lingus through until next year here in Ireland?

Nijmegen

NH2013 wrote: »

Dail committee on Covid-19’s effect on aviation this morning made for interesting listening.

Put quite starkly that Aer Lingus is burning through €1.5m every single day at the moment, primarily on aircraft leases and that without state support similar to BA, Iberia, Air France, KLM, TAP, Lufthansa, Alitalia, Ryanair etc it would likely enter liquidation within the coming months, a fairly stark representation of the situation.

Also interesting to learn that Ryanair has been given a £600m preferential loan by the British government but Aer Lingus yet to be offered any sort of assistance by the Irish government apart from the TWSS.

Also interesting to hear the numbers of state intervention involved, £300m for BA, €1bn for both Iberia and Vueling, €7bn for Lufthansa, €5bl for Air France and €3bl for KLM, raises the question what sort of cost to the taxpayer we’d be looking at to support Aer Lingus through until next year here in Ireland?

Well at €1.5m per day, it'd be €550m for a full year or part thereof; or reducing the burn through market return and measures taken, though offsetting with the cost of measures such as redundancy; and adding back in the cost of the wage subsidy. It'd be easy to see a bailout support for EI costing €100m+ but the issue for the govt I suspect is that when you break the proverbial seal, where does it end?

For context, the government has announced supports for the entire higher education sector of about €160m or so - but a lot of that is dual purpose funding, where they inject cash into the Unis but also create more places for unemployed people to reskill.

For EI specifically, you can't actually quantify what the total cost of supports would be because you don't know where the bottom is on this. You're better off going big as the German government did with Lufthansa, to cover any eventuality.

Then if you support EI, who else do you support and not support and why? Does the government pick winners and losers?

The pandemic payments to support employees staying with employers till business picks back up is clever, because the government can still let failing businesses go to the wall in six months time. If we support the staff of a company that relies on footfall of office workers, and that business isn't viable in the "new normal" then it will go to the wall when the pandemic supports lift, as the supports were keeping people going and not investing in the business.

I fear a lot of people won't see the distinction as we move to deal with the damage (as distinct to living on life support during the crisis) and if I was a civil servant or government minister I'd be leery of starting down the road of direct bailouts to companies. Governments are bad at picking winners who are truly viable but for just another few million of state support and we know what bottomless guarantees tend to buy us.

Back to Irish aviation and EI specifically, if the business is burning through €1.5m per day and a lot of that is related to lease costs then perhaps a bankruptcy restructuring wouldn't be a bad thing? If EI is paying the lease costs on planes it has put into storage - some direct from the factory - because demand isn't there, perhaps EI needs a smaller fleet and either lessors etc work with them now or else they go that route. If EI gets a state bailout, it'll be assumed the government will throw good money after bad in the event the crisis is dragging and they need supports ever more.

I just think not just for aviation but for the world in general, governments need to avoid getting into these direct bailouts at scale. I believe the Lufthansa bailout was a model way to do it, if we do go down that road, but I also fear that every industry and sector - from airlines to pubs - will be looking for bailout cash from the taxpayer after we do the first one. Back to the era of "Where's my NAMA..."

Sheep Shagger

Union rep saying Aer Lingus could be at risk of being wound up by IAG as they concentrate their survival efforts on BA and Iberia.

I doubt this would ever happen btw...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aer-lingus-could-be-wound-up-without-state-support-union-chief-warns-1.4312620%3fmode=amp

goingnowhere

EI has lower running costs than BA, if anything I would expect BA to be run down due its heavy reliance on premium travel, huge overheads and legacy baggage.

IAG are doing to rights issue to generate several billion in cash.

Jack1985

It is a fact however what Mr Cullen said is correct - All airlines in the UK have benefited from Government loans including a £600m loan to Ryanair in addition to furlough there (as well as TWSS here) - Aer Lingus has not received anything other than TWSS to support payroll and continues to burn in the region of €1.5m a day,

It doesn't take a grocer to work out when you have that much expenditure and revenue down by 90% something has to give. This Government is incapable of making a decision in relation to Aviation, if they seek to stop Aviation Businesses making money, they need to support them or if they wish let them go bust and pick up the tab anyway.

Sheep Shagger wrote: »

I doubt this would ever happen btw...[/url]

Anything is possible, the last 5 months have proved that.

MoeJay

I have yet to find the words airport, airline or aviation anywhere in the "stimulus" package.

It's almost as if there was no aviation industry here at all...

Unfortunately this new government have shown total incapablilty of being able to take proper big decisions that will make a real difference to how well the country (including aviation) will recover. Without sizeable intervention, good businesses and good jobs will be lost all across this country. This is not 2008!!!

Irish Steve

MoeJay wrote: »

I have yet to find the words airport, airline or aviation anywhere in the "stimulus" package.

It's almost as if there was no aviation industry here at all...

Unfortunately this new government have shown total incapablilty of being able to take proper big decisions that will make a real difference to how well the country (including aviation) will recover. Without sizeable intervention, good businesses and good jobs will be lost all across this country. This is not 2008!!!

if we had some TD's with aviation experience, it would help, but people like the Healy Rae's are too worried about getting their own little feifdoms treated as special cases and getting their pubs open again. Add to that the inbuilt bias of people like the Greens against aviation, and you'll struggle to find many people in Leinster house that are prepared to actively support aviation, despite the massive implications for the industry here, which is way larger than just Aer Lingus and Ryanair.

donkey balls

The problem is a lot of TD/ Ministers have never actually worked in a proper job, Take the Minister for Justice and the Foreign affairs one.
Both left college helped the aul lad as an assistant then got their seats when they passed on.
Another thing they don't see is the ancillary jobs that do business within the sector and the jobs they support, The only thing I've seen mentioned in the media was the initial flight to PEK.And a radio advert for CV19 saying about keeping airports open as they are a vital cog in the supply chain etc.
The government need to engage with the aviation sector, Maybe some form of a loan like the LH one I know people will say what about the loans the banks got in 08, This is something totally different the banks went off on a mad one with crazy loans.
This is not about keeping the bankers in their ivory tower on mad mad money but keeping normal Joe soaps(PAYE) workers in jobs.

LeakRate

All DUB based Cityjet crews were notified of their redundencies the last couple of days, flight crew, cabin crew, and engineers, they will keep their SAS flying by the looks of it, but cityjet as we knew it are no more.

Jack1985

LeakRate wrote: »

All DUB based Cityjet crews were notified of there redundencies the last couple of days, flight crew, cabin crew, and engineers, they will keep their SAS flying by the looks of it, but cityjet as we knew it are no more.

Deplorable decision, Mr Byrne should hang his head in shame.

A bigger net needs to be cast here on the conditions some aviation companies seek to use AOC registrations in Ireland for. CityJet, Norwegian Ireland, SAS Ireland etc - Essentially Flags of convenience, they fly our flag and treat their workers with contempt, disposing of them outright in the case of CityJet.

The recent BLM protests and it's underlying message of which I fully support does point out something the public fail to stand up to and support fellow citizens in. Corporations continue to swing their axes of power to diminish the right of every citizen to be treated with respect, be paid fairly and have working conditions honoured or at least have the possibility to enter negotiations where compromises may be sought. Uber for example who had a campaign to support BLM and won’t let their own London employees unionise or seek basic fundamental rights, is a laughable irony but it’s seen broadly across corporations. State policy allows this to happen in Ireland. We elect officials who go along with this policy.

It was referred to earlier that it would be beneficial to have a TD with aviation experience I don't accept this at face value, TD's should be representing the national interest at every corner - The Kerry boys prove the old school way of dig outs for locals to be continually elected is not a reflection of a modern democracy - It shouldn’t just be on the running Government to represent the interests of citizens, the opposition should be able to hold them to account where a balance is not struck between Government decision and the balance of national interest – There always has to be a counter argument.

Instead the current largest opposition seems to have the mantra of Ian Paisley ''Never, never, never, never ...'' not adding anything to counteract proposals rather just voicing objections at every corner - Their whole stance a couple of days ago seeking to go along with Green list when they have done the opposite in the north highlights my point at large. A TD yesterday asked the witnesses what was their opinion on his local constituent’s opinion that there were tourists infecting the community, she was waiting on a refund - This is not what our elected officials should be doing, it does not represent the country broadly. To seek to use this valuable time with the witnesses yesterday with a question like that is infuriating.

To quote Mr Cullen, we are an outlier with our quarantine stance and we have been an outlier for years with regards to state policy concerning aviation.

Irish Steve

Seems that there are changes happening, the UK have announced a significant change to the rules on travel, anyone entering UK from Spain is now required to self isolate for 2 weeks on return due to a surge in Covid cases in Spain, and there are several places in the UK where enhanced rules are being enforced due to infection spikes.

Maybe the way things have been handled here is not quite so out of kilter as some have been suggesting, while there are still cases being reported on most days, the number of deaths, and the numbers in hospital and/or intensive care are now massively down on what they were at the peak, and the measures being taken to close sites with covid infections seem to be keeping a lid on the numbers being infected.

What is very clear is that while this virus is being managed, it has very much not gone away, and "normal" won't be coming back for quite some time, which is going to mean some very serious consequences for the aviation industry for some considerable time to come. Between Covid, civil unrest and the political uncertainty, the USA is not going to be a fun place to go to for quite some time to come, and depending on who wins the election, it could be even longer before Amercans are travelling abroad again.

All in all, for people working in aviation, a depressing picture.

MadYaker

Are Lingus losing 1.5 million a day according to the IT. Will the government have to do something about that eventually?

W1ll1s

Just to complicate things even more!

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7002280-FAA-EAD-for-737s.html

Caquas

Now Ryanair is threatening to sue the government over the "green list".

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ryanair-poised-to-sue-irish-government-over-travel-green-list-77j3fswq7

Their solicitors complain that the list has been put in place on a non-statutory basis without the normal legislative procedures.

But what is the legal effect of this list? If it is simply guidance to the public with no enforcement, the courts won't insist on legislation.

And typical Ryanair, they put the boot in by pointing out that

the taoiseach and his advisers travelled to and from Belgium ("which is not on the extremely limited green list of just 15 countries") last week to attend an EU summit, and Martin had found himself "unable to comply with the travel restrictions" on his return.

Doesn't that just prove that this list is merely advisory?

My guess is the courts will want to give the government maximum leeway in this crisis but this is not the hare-brained John Waters/Gemma Doherty claim, this is a major business fighting for survival.

Beechwoodspark

Ryan air have really lost the run of themselves over the last few months.

Beechwoodspark

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Ryan air have really lost the run of themselves over the last few months.

The green list and the means by which it is formulated is derisible. They are right to feel aggrieved.

Acosta

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Ryan air have really lost the run of themselves over the last few months.

If it wasn't for Ryanair a lot of employees across many different companies working in Irish aviation wouldn't be back at work.

JohnC.

Of course it's just advisory. Nobody is banned from travelling to countries not on it. They ask people to avoid non-essential travel, but not actually stopping it.

Beechwoodspark

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The green list and the means by which it is formulated is derisible. They are right to feel aggrieved.

What’s really derisible is Ryan air’s antics since this pandemic has hit.

Anecdotal I know...but a lot of contacts (business/sports/personal) have indicated they intend to boycott FR for the foreseeable

TheDriver

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

What’s really derisible is Ryan air’s antics since this pandemic has hit.

Anecdotal I know...but a lot of contacts (business/sports/personal) have indicated they intend to boycott FR for the foreseeable

Everyone says that and then realise they're the only service to a required destination or price is far more attractive and we quickly forget our grievance.

Tenger

JohnC. wrote: »

Of course it's just advisory. Nobody is banned from travelling to countries not on it. They ask people to avoid non-essential travel, but not actually stopping it.

What really gets me regarding the non-essential travel advisory is that there are exemptions. (Diplomats and airline/ferry crew for example)
Ryanair trying to point fingers at MM when they own workers are exempt from the 14 day rules is just childish.

LawBoy2018

MadYaker wrote: »

Are Lingus losing 1.5 million a day according to the IT. Will the government have to do something about that eventually?

Why would the Irish government do anything about it? IAG is based in the UK?

VG31

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

Why would the Irish government do anything about it? IAG is based in the UK?

They're based in Spain actually. It doesn't matter, Aer Lingus is still an Irish company. Swiss and Austrian are part of the Lufthansa Group (a German company) but that didn't stop their respective governments bailing them out.

Kcormahs

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

Why would the Irish government do anything about it? IAG is based in the UK?

Lufthansa group is based in Germany and
Swiss, begian and austrian governments contributed to the group, through the companies based in their countries (Swissair, Brussels airlines and austrian airlines respectively)

Aer Lingus has approx. 4500 employees Where 95% are based in Ireland.

Aer Lingus guarantees connectivity to Ireland and supports tourism in big numbers, and without it, all these sectors would be affected.

Iberia got a Spanish bailout through a credit facility even though IAG is “UK” based as you mention

Its not about being IAG, lufthansa group or Air france/KLM

But about the importance of the airline to the country,
To many sectors that are related to it (from tourism, to an post, to connectivity, to cargo)
Its about the Irish People it gives work to. (Should we instead send all these people to the dole? And who would pay for that too?)

Think a bit before making those sort of comments