Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

mikel97

Tenger wrote: »

As for “Sweden”, well that attempt at a Mike drop displays your uninformed opinion. 58 deaths per 1000 compared to 38/1000 in Ireland.

Im very well informed but from official sources not Rte dosh Ie.

So what about deaths, people die. But the management is important. Sweden in last 14 days have had a third of cases per 100K than the Ireland and in total Ireland has had 5 and half more deaths in 100K than Sweden. The figures speak for themselves No? Its my opinion and lots of my age groups 18-25.

mikel97

billy few mates wrote: »

You work away there and enjoy your travels, the advice clearly isn't aimed at you, it's aimed at those of us who are trying to avoid you...

I don't work for now as Ireland has destroyed my Airline Job but at least collect PUP in the Bank and have moved home. Yes Im glad to be careful and wouldn't want you breathing near me tbh. Educate Mitigate and Protect yourself like me and my peers but Im not locking myself away frightened of the rubbish Irish media dramas. Travel broaden your horizon

mikel97

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Why would the state cover the costs of the tests and accommodation when the vast vast majority, (we are talking in excess of 98%) of travel is discretionary?

The individual that's travelling should pay for any test or quarantine.

I agree. Have had 10 tests since March on my travels not paid for any. Very reassuring while Irish cant get there act together and introduce the same as most EU countries do. Joke

cson

I think the lockdowns are misguided, but I don't think opening up for tourism is the panacea that folks think it is - over here in the US there are plenty of traditional tourist destinations with no mandatory quarantine (Florida being a big one), yet TSA numbers continue to be 80-85% down YoY. Even if you open up, I don't think a majority of people are going to travel either way.

The Government (indeed Governments worldwide), need to ensure that companies and folks disproportionately affected by COVID lockdowns/restrictions are taken care of sufficient to see them out the other side. There will be major pain at the other end in terms of spinning up capacity once we get to the other side of this otherwise.

Locker10a

cson wrote: »

I think the lockdowns are misguided, but I don't think opening up for tourism is the panacea that folks think it is - over here in the US there are plenty of traditional tourist destinations with no mandatory quarantine (Florida being a big one), yet TSA numbers continue to be 80-85% down YoY. Even if you open up, I don't think a majority of people are going to travel either way.

The Government (indeed Governments worldwide), need to ensure that companies and folks disproportionately affected by COVID lockdowns/restrictions are taken care of sufficient to see them out the other side. There will be major pain at the other end in terms of spinning up capacity once we get to the other side of this otherwise.

THIS!! I think there’s a few folk here who are angry and frustrated, and I totally understand why, people are watching their careers/livelihoods going up in smoke, I’m feel desperately sorry for those people, but frankly, even if governments implemented some of the various ideas, I fee there still wouldn’t be demand and aviation would still be in dire straits. Sadly.
We can only hope for a bounce back later next year

paddy19

I think Aviation folks and all of us who love to travel need to take a serious look at this new study (see attached). If it goes unchallenged it will make travel even more difficult then it is now. There are virtually no studies that show Covid transmission on flights but this one could be become accepted as gospel unless it gets seriously reviewed.

I think the conclusions are seriously overstated.

There are four groups. Groups 1 and 2 were in social contact preflight. Two people from Group 1 showed symptoms within 48 hours of the flight. 48 hours is an extremely short incubation period. The two groups were not in close proximity during the flight.

Yet the study concludes that:

"The incubation period forCOVID-19 may be as short as 2 days,
so the potential for in-flight/airport transmission exists in this outbreak [4,5].
In-flight transmission is a plausible exposure for cases in Group 1 and Group 2
given seating arrangements and onset dates."

Potential and plausible are two very different propositions!

The summary is as follow:

"An outbreak of 59 cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) originated with 13 cases linked by a 7 h, 17% occupancy flight into Ireland, summer 2020. The flight-associated attack rate was 9.8–17.8%. Spread to 46 non-flight cases occurred country-wide. Asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic transmission in-flight from a point source is implicated by 99% homology across the virus genome in five cases travelling from three different continents. Restriction of movement on arrival and robust contact tracing can limit propagation post-flight."

lintdrummer

https://cordis.europa.eu/article/id/422400-easy-affordable-ultra-rapid-testing-for-covid-19

Could the airlines/airport authorities buy rapid tests like these and provide a free test to all arriving passengers? It will be €1 per test so could be funded through fares with no noticeable increase to the passenger. Result in a matter of minutes.
Very little training required to use and it's not like the airlines/airport authorities don't have the spare manpower at the moment.
Would be a step in the right direction to rebuild confidence in travel.

Gael23

Given that a vaccine won’t stop infection illustrates just how utterly fcuked the travel industry is.
The EU travel restrictions are based on case numbers which a vaccine won’t reduce

Credit Checker Moose

lintdrummer wrote: »

https://cordis.europa.eu/article/id/422400-easy-affordable-ultra-rapid-testing-for-covid-19

Could the airlines/airport authorities buy rapid tests like these and provide a free test to all arriving passengers? It will be €1 per test so could be funded through fares with no noticeable increase to the passenger. Result in a matter of minutes.
Very little training required to use and it's not like the airlines/airport authorities don't have the spare manpower at the moment.
Would be a step in the right direction to rebuild confidence in travel.

That doesn't suit the government narrative.

Tenzor07

Gael23 wrote: »

Given that a vaccine won’t stop infection illustrates just how utterly fcuked the travel industry is.
The EU travel restrictions are based on case numbers which a vaccine won’t reduce

Which is why basing restrictions on case numbers is utterly ridiculous, and if Governments plan to restart the EU economy they'll have to change to something like hospital/ICU admission numbers... otherwise countries will stay as "Red zones" for years to come...

snotboogie

Gael23 wrote: »

Given that a vaccine won’t stop infection illustrates just how utterly fcuked the travel industry is.
The EU travel restrictions are based on case numbers which a vaccine won’t reduce

Where are you getting this?

smurfjed

Hotblack Desiato wrote: »

What about pubs

Pubs, restaurants and coffee shops all open.

Tenzor07

snotboogie wrote: »

Where are you getting this?

It's been said a lot in the News: https://bgr.com/2020/10/27/coronavirus-vaccine-efficacy-explained-fauci-interview/

goingnowhere

snotboogie wrote: »

Where are you getting this?

It is not a sterilising vaccine, the vaccine just reduces the risk of major sickness as a result. People getting sick, clogging up medical services and dying are the problem here, protection from disease but not from infection.

Basically we are making the population asymptomatic as your body should be able to quickly deal with COVID. That in theory would reduce the transmission also but you would like still test positive if tested.

I can see us all having the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carte_Jaune yellow vaccine booklet being filled in with the vaccine details and being allowed only travel if we are in date.

Captain_Crash

goingnowhere wrote: »

Basically we are making the population asymptomatic

But 80% of people who test positive are already asymptomatic.. so what difference would this make?

BZ

https://www.boyletoday.com/ireland-west-airport-to-close-for-one-month/

Knock closing from the 14th of November to the 13th of December due to Ryanair pulling all flights for that time period.

Just confirmed Ryanair will pull from SNN for the same time period also.

jd1983

paddy19 wrote: »

I think Aviation folks and all of us who love to travel need to take a serious look at this new study (see attached). If it goes unchallenged it will make travel even more difficult then it is now. There are virtually no studies that show Covid transmission on flights but this one could be become accepted as gospel unless it gets seriously reviewed.

I think the conclusions are seriously overstated.

There are four groups. Groups 1 and 2 were in social contact preflight. Two people from Group 1 showed symptoms within 48 hours of the flight. 48 hours is an extremely short incubation period. The two groups were not in close proximity during the flight.

Yet the study concludes that:

"The incubation period forCOVID-19 may be as short as 2 days,
so the potential for in-flight/airport transmission exists in this outbreak [4,5].
In-flight transmission is a plausible exposure for cases in Group 1 and Group 2
given seating arrangements and onset dates."

Potential and plausible are two very different propositions!

The summary is as follow:

"An outbreak of 59 cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) originated with 13 cases linked by a 7 h, 17% occupancy flight into Ireland, summer 2020. The flight-associated attack rate was 9.8–17.8%. Spread to 46 non-flight cases occurred country-wide. Asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic transmission in-flight from a point source is implicated by 99% homology across the virus genome in five cases travelling from three different continents. Restriction of movement on arrival and robust contact tracing can limit propagation post-flight."

Great post!

Do you know if it's true that the 'shared accommodation' that some of the infected people were going to was a direct provision camp?

tiger_cub

BZ wrote: »

https://www.boyletoday.com/ireland-west-airport-to-close-for-one-month/

Knock closing from the 14th of November to the 13th of December due to Ryanair pulling all flights for that time period.

Just confirmed Ryanair will pull from SNN for the same time period also.

Can’t figure out if it’s Ryanair hardballing the Gov to make a stand. Obviously the demand isn’t there anyways and you can’t run ghost airports or ghost flights.

France and Germany reintroducing lockdowns for November too. I can’t see any way back to 2019 flight levels until 2028-2030 at this rate. Last IATA estimate was 2025 but that was before a second wave in Europe and the US. Can anyone fill my glass up with a more positive outlook?

MrMusician18

tiger_cub wrote: »

Can’t figure out if it’s Ryanair hardballing the Gov to make a stand. Obviously the demand isn’t there anyways and you can’t run ghost airports or ghost flights.

France and Germany reintroducing lockdowns for November too. I can’t see any way back to 2019 flight levels until 2028-2030 at this rate. Last IATA estimate was 2025 but that was before a second wave in Europe and the US. Can anyone fill my glass up with a more positive outlook?

Ryanair might publicly paint it as making a stand against the government, but if there is no one travelling they are not going to run the flights.

Ryanairs decisions are ultimately profit driven not politically driven. Same goes for Cork and Shannon.

snotboogie

tiger_cub wrote: »

Can’t figure out if it’s Ryanair hardballing the Gov to make a stand. Obviously the demand isn’t there anyways and you can’t run ghost airports or ghost flights.

France and Germany reintroducing lockdowns for November too. I can’t see any way back to 2019 flight levels until 2028-2030 at this rate. Last IATA estimate was 2025 but that was before a second wave in Europe and the US. Can anyone fill my glass up with a more positive outlook?

It's been obvious for a long time that this wasn't going to go away on its own, I don't think the major outbreaks in Europe have any impact on the medium term.

Tenzor07

tiger_cub wrote: »

Can’t figure out if it’s Ryanair hardballing the Gov to make a stand. Obviously the demand isn’t there anyways and you can’t run ghost airports or ghost flights

Yeap definitely "hard-balling" the Government, I mean it's not like over the summer the Govt. failed to introduce random swab testing for passengers or even temperature checks at ports, or a covid tracker app or setting up a robust track&trace system, ......Oh wait.... better to scapegoat the Travel sector for the rise in Covid cases

MrMusician18

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Yeap definitely "hard-balling" the Government, I mean it's not like over the summer the Govt. failed to introduce random swab testing for passengers or even temperature checks at ports, or a covid tracker app or setting up a robust track&trace system, ......Oh wait.... better to scapegoat the Travel sector for the rise in Covid cases

If the Government had done all that to the standard that Ryanair wanted, they'd still be closing bases and cancelling routes if there was no profit in it for them.

That is the motivation, the rest is just noise and distraction

Tenzor07

MrMusician18 wrote: »

If the Government had done all that to the standard that Ryanair wanted, they'd still be closing bases and cancelling routes if there was no profit in it for them.
That is the motivation, the rest is just noise and distraction

Ok, i'll bite.... yea you're just stating the obvious really, any bases not commercially viable can be shut and serviced from other bases...

Every major/regional airport should have passenger screening present and it's not "what Ryanair wants" it's what the EU want: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/ireland-under-eu-pressure-to-change-test-and-quarantine-rules-39680461.html
And it's what this inept Government and highly political health committee have failed to do over the past 7 - 8 months...

IngazZagni

So it appears there will be some days with zero flights from Cork Airport. Will they just close the airport and tell the staff to stay at home I wonder?

snotboogie

IngazZagni wrote: »

So it appears there will be some days with zero flights from Cork Airport. Will they just close the airport and tell the staff to stay at home I wonder?

I don't think there are any days with no flights. 18 flights per week was the statement from Cork Airport yesterday.

MrMusician18

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Ok, i'll bite.... yea you're just stating the obvious really, any bases not commercially viable can be shut and serviced from other bases...

Every major/regional airport should have passenger screening present and it's not "what Ryanair wants" it's what the EU want: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/ireland-under-eu-pressure-to-change-test-and-quarantine-rules-39680461.html
And it's what this inept Government and highly political health committee have failed to do over the past 7 - 8 months...

I don't know what you're biting at. If there was money in serving the airports mentioned Ryanair would serve them. They've complained plenty about DAA and how awful they are, yet have managed to fly out of Dublin since day one.

As far as I know it's been the EU that couldn't get it's act together in devising a common travel system - the traffic light system isn't even operational yet: 8th Nov. it goes live. And the system will have practically no one flying as the disease levels across the continent are way outside green and orange.

Perhaps you could tell us then the kind of screening should airports have available? Inaccurate rapid testing or ineffectual temperature checks? Or PCR tests at €150-200 per passenger?

MrMusician18

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I don't know what you're biting at. If there was money in serving the airports mentioned Ryanair would serve them. They've complained plenty about DAA and how awful they are, yet have managed to fly out of Dublin since day one.

As far as I know it's been the EU that couldn't get it's act together in devising a common travel system - the traffic light system isn't even operational yet: 8th Nov. it goes live. And the system will have practically no one flying as the disease levels across the continent are way outside green and orange.

Perhaps you could tell us then the kind of screening should airports have available? Inaccurate rapid testing or ineffectual temperature checks? Or PCR tests at €150-200 per passenger?

how about enough ICU beds available in the last almost 8 months to withstand an increase in demand for intensive care that the virus inevitably brings rather than closing the entire country down economically and socially.
You seem to think the Government are entirely blameless here.
The country is locked down completely because politicians don't want to be fielding questions about why people are dying on trolleys like what happened in Northern Italy back in March.
Testing(accurate or somewhat inaccurate) isn't being at all at the airports and that is unforgivable.
The right solution is more ICU beds. The solution favored is lock everything down and scapegoat anyone and everyone else.

IngazZagni

snotboogie wrote: »

I don't think there are any days with no flights. 18 flights per week was the statement from Cork Airport yesterday.

I think that was before the recent cuts. As far as I can see there are 3 weekly flights to Heathrow with Aer Lingus and 4 flights a week or so to Amsterdam with KLM which I'd imagine will be at risk too. Am I missing any flights?

snotboogie

IngazZagni wrote: »

I think that was before the recent cuts. As far as I can see there are 3 weekly flights to Heathrow with Aer Lingus and 4 flights a week or so to Amsterdam with KLM which I'd imagine will be at risk too. Am I missing any flights?

Media release yesterday said:

We still expect at this stage to have between 14 and 18 flights per week with KLM and Aer Lingus serving Amsterdam and Heathrow during the period 15th November to 5th December. In addition, we plan, with Government support, to continue to provide services for search and rescue flights, coastguard helicopter, Garda helicopter, Irish Aer Corps, Medical evacuation (medevac) and transplant flights. However our passenger numbers for November this year are likely to be 9,000 versus 172,000 in the same month last year, a decrease of 95%

https://www.corkairport.com/news/detail/2020/10/28/cork-airport-statement-on-ryanair-flight-cancellations

3 weekly flights to Heathrow seems low, also I assume Aerlingus are still flying to Amsterdam too.

Cookiemunster

snotboogie wrote: »

also I assume Aerlingus are still flying to Amsterdam too.

I would think that it's pretty unlikely that there's enough traffic to keep KLM and EI both flying the same route