coronavirus and the property effect

Browney7

Will this be a shakedown of landlords who are renting out previous PPRs on tracker rates instead of the BTL interest rate?

Umaro

A few tweets I saw today about the Airbnb properties that are getting dumped en masse into Daft.



https://twitter.com/KarinCarthy/status/1240698271556763648


https://twitter.com/ohnofalafel/status/1240760271737585667


https://twitter.com/Orla_Hegarty/status/1240287987054841858


https://twitter.com/Revolution_IRL/status/1240677758788874241

handlemaster

https://m.independent.ie/business/irish/state-may-face-15bn-bill-to-ease-financial-pain-of-coronavirus-39059859.html


Property defo going to drop. It's a question of how much

antfin

nhoj88 wrote: »

What was the bank mortgage lending like back then?

Things I guess banks were more stringent on issues like occupation, lower levels of LTV.....

What other stringent requirements were there?

If you compare the total mortgage lending in Ireland in 2012 at €2.63 billion with 2019 at €8.7 billion it gives an idea of how far lending could drop. Average deposits for first time buyers in 2012 were almost 25% but it's more about the amount of non-performing loans on a banks books. The more non-performing loans they have the less they will be allowed lend. In reality any mortgages that avail of the 3 month payment break because of the impact of Covid-19 will become non-performing from a solvency point of view. Then if the security for the loan drops in value it becomes a negative equity non-performing loan and we're back to where we were 10 years ago and the banks won't be allowed to lend unless they offload the non-performing loan to a vulture fund to improve their balance sheet.

Assetbacked

Wow, there's a lot of apartments available under €2k that look alright, which was not the case a few weeks ago. It now seems to be possible to even get one bedroom apartments for 1300-1500 which aren't studios. The fact there are so many apartments means it is definitely moving towards a renters market, some of the one bedroom places looking for 1800/1900+ p/m are going to have to strongly reconsider their asking prices over the coming weeks as the institutional landlords are offering their high spec apartments for those prices in Sandyford, Islandbridge, Stillorgan etc.

Some pleasant one bedroom apartments right in the city centre for under 1500 (2 weeks ago these would not have been on daft for less than 1700/1800);

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/dublin-2/aungier-street-dublin-2-dublin-2015395/
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/dublin-8/6-ushers-quay-dublin-8-dublin-2011763/

Ap2020

Assetbacked wrote: »

Wow, there's a lot of apartments available under €2k that look alright, which was not the case a few weeks ago. It now seems to be possible to even get one bedroom apartments for 1300-1500 which aren't studios. The fact there are so many apartments means it is definitely moving towards a renters market, some of the one bedroom places looking for 1800/1900+ p/m are going to have to strongly reconsider their asking prices over the coming weeks as the institutional landlords are offering their high spec apartments for those prices in Sandyford, Islandbridge, Stillorgan etc.

Some pleasant one bedroom apartments right in the city centre for under 1500 (2 weeks ago these would not have been on daft for less than 1700/1800);

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/dublin-2/aungier-street-dublin-2-dublin-2015395/
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-rent/dublin-8/6-ushers-quay-dublin-8-dublin-2011763/

Your first link there is a former AirBnB. This account is too new to post a link, but it's still up on the site today.

PommieBast

Assetbacked wrote: »

Some pleasant one bedroom apartments right in the city centre for under 1500 (2 weeks ago these would not have been on daft for less than 1700/1800)

I've literally just finished moved into one of those €1800 city centre ones on a short-term let I got a few weeks ago. I think I won't bother unboxing stuff

Donald Trump

Ap2020 wrote: »

Your first link there is a former AirBnB. This account is too new to post a link, but it's still up on the site today.

The second one comes up with plenty reviews on Tripadvisor if ya google the Eircode

Claw Hammer

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/daft-ie-reports-jump-in-available-rental-properties-as-result-of-outbreak-1.4208146


The law of supply and demand. The ex Airbnb properties will be higher spec than usual, but the landlords may sell when they can so might not be good for a long term letting.

Claw Hammer

Claw Hammer wrote: »

......., but the landlords may sell when they can so might not be good for a long term letting.

I'd say most will stick it out as landlords ..... Sale prices will likely plummet.

handlemaster

Augeo wrote: »

I'd say most will stick it out as landlords ..... Sale prices will likely plummet.

Yep I think prices will drop for sure. How much is the next question. It could become self fulfilling. People like before keep waiting and waiting .. and the drop could be 20 30 40 % who knows will see

JJJackal

Its worth noting that property prices will drop for the period of March to July 2020.

This may not reflect a real drop. Number of sales will drop spectacularly as people self isolate, dont go to viewings, cant get into bank etc etc

People who still have jobs where they can work from home will spend less. Consequently saving up for a deposit.

This recession/drop is different from previous in that when its over there could be upwards of 100,000 jobs created overnight

.... Created overnight as in the ones who were lost months previously? Businesses (some) might well close and not reopen.

There's going to be a severe economic hangover.

JJJackal

Augeo wrote: »

.... Created overnight as in the ones who were lost months previously? Businesses (some) might well close and not reopen.

There's going to be a severe economic hangover.

I estimated 100,000 jobs out of 200,000 to 300,000 jobs lost so far. I think that is a worst case scenario.

Parents going back to work still need childcare - these jobs will be recreated even if new businesses.

Some of the pubs if not all will reopen. The ones that dont reopen could reopen in a few months under a different company.

Restaurants will be busy again (some but not all).

Some people will end up saving money and will be eager to spend it as a result of social isolation.

Claw Hammer

Augeo wrote: »

I'd say most will stick it out as landlords ..... Sale prices will likely plummet.

There will be the first to sell when it is at all possible.

TheSheriff

JJJackal wrote: »

I estimated 100,000 jobs out of 200,000 to 300,000 jobs lost so far. I think that is a worst case scenario.

Parents going back to work still need childcare - these jobs will be recreated even if new businesses.

Some of the pubs if not all will reopen. The ones that dont reopen could reopen in a few months under a different company.

Restaurants will be busy again (some but not all).

Some people will end up saving money and will be eager to spend it as a result of social isolation.

This virus is going to fundamentally change how we go about our daily lives.

There is not going to be a moment where we are told " ok Irish public, all clear resume as normal" and people rush out to spend all that saved up money in bustling restaurants.

There will be a severe economic drag from this which might take years to get over.

JJJackal

TheSheriff wrote: »

This virus is going to fundamentally change about we go about our daily lives.

There is not going to be a moment where we are told " ok Irish public, all clear resume as normal" and people rush out to spend all that saved up money in bustling restaurants.

There will be a severe economic drag from this which might take years to get over.

This is potentially true. But jobs will be created quickly

Mic 1972

JJJackal wrote: »

Its worth noting that property prices will drop for the period of March to July 2020.

This may not reflect a real drop. Number of sales will drop spectacularly as people self isolate, dont go to viewings, cant get into bank etc etc

People who still have jobs where they can work from home will spend less. Consequently saving up for a deposit.

This recession/drop is different from previous in that when its over there could be upwards of 100,000 jobs created overnight

The property market might have a slower response, for the time being everything will stop, when finally things start moving again there will be a lot less money around to buy. I imagine prices will slowly start to decline now and will continue well after things recover

Idbatterim

every post should start with a (* I believe) ... if any of you have crystal balls here, where can I buy mine?

Idbatterim

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The property market might have a slower response, for the time being everything will stop, when finally things start moving again there will be a lot less money around to buy. I imagine prices will slowly start to decline now and will continue well after things recover

agreed slowish decline and coninue that way, unless we get dealt with an actual hammer blow at some point. Like needing another bailout etc, cutting public service pay and all that starts again...

Idbatterim

JJJackal wrote: »

Its worth noting that property prices will drop for the period of March to July 2020.

This may not reflect a real drop. Number of sales will drop spectacularly as people self isolate, dont go to viewings, cant get into bank etc etc

People who still have jobs where they can work from home will spend less. Consequently saving up for a deposit.

This recession/drop is different from previous in that when its over there could be upwards of 100,000 jobs created overnight

you are right about the ability of many to now save far more. a huge amount arent taking income hit, they arent eating or drinking out, going to cinema, less retail shopping in B & M at least...

you would wonder if they would reopen pubs here, but do it with like 1-3 or half capacity and strictly limit numbers... I mean even if they did re-open the vulnerable through air or general health, would likely be going any way and with many taking pay cuts or unemployed, numbers would be down largely any way

randoplh134

Idbatterim wrote: »

you are right about the ability of many to now save far more. a huge amount arent taking income hit, they arent eating or drinking out, going to cinema, less retail shopping in B & M at least...

I have to say this, the naivety in some of the posts is spectacular. Especially the post you responded to which mentioned when things get going again 100k jobs will be created overnight.

People should not assume that all these jobs will come back in an instant, even if they do hours may be affected and wages lowered. Companies will take advantage of this and be reluctant to pay full bonuses and pay raises for the foreseeable future, people will be fearful, fear breeds uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty.

The property market is about to fall off a cliff, anyone who is denying it has vested interests, is seriously naive or was literally born within the past 10 years.

dhaughton99

Just out for a walk along the canal and I can see 2 half built apartment complexes on the Kylemore road. What’s the chances now of anyone ever moving into them?

Idbatterim

randoplh134 wrote: »

I have to say this, the naivety in some of the posts is spectacular. Especially the post you responded to which mentioned when things get going again 100k jobs will be created overnight.

People should not assume that all these jobs will come back in an instant, even if they do hours may be affected and wages lowered. Companies will take advantage of this and be reluctant to pay full bonuses and pay raises for the foreseeable future, people will be fearful, fear breeds uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty.

The property market is about to fall off a cliff, anyone who is denying it has vested interests, is seriously naive or was literally born within the past 10 years.

a vested interest? I dont own a property! what will happen will happen. the last bust, there were are list of way more reasons you would expect property to drop, than freeze or slowly increase. Guess what, eventually they started increasing. It seems like you have a vested interest in talking it down, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy if enough people wait or cant get credit. I have said that I agree, of course prices will drop now. But dont make out like you have a crystal ball and can tell all. Nobody knows how this will all pan out. Property moves at a glacial rate. Secondly, nobody here will be turfed out for not paying mortgages. The population is growing and construction now may well freeze or become unviable. There are endless factors at play and I wouldnt have the arrogance to difinitively claim, this will happen. You see another nama style give property give away going down again? the central bank has been very prudent this time.

I think property prices will obviously fall now. But nobody has a clue how much, because that will be determined by a ton of factors. Including how long this partial shut down will last, will there be a full shut down. or do you have information that even our biggest decision makers here yet, dont?

Idbatterim

dhaughton99 wrote: »

Just out for a walk along the canal and I can see 2 half built apartment complexes on the Kylemore road. What’s the chances now of anyone ever moving into them?

the way I see it. the government will probably fund completion of these, if the builders etc cant. There is no point with stuff under construction freezing for a number of reasons. christ when I think of it, the twenty five years lease those council fools in dundrum ended up in for the luxury apartments. Christ!

badboyblast

We are a week into a health crisis and people think the world will fall out from under them, wise up people

accensi0n

dhaughton99 wrote: »

Just out for a walk along the canal and I can see 2 half built apartment complexes on the Kylemore road. What’s the chances now of anyone ever moving into them?

Probably close to 100%

JJJackal

randoplh134 wrote: »

I have to say this, the naivety in some of the posts is spectacular. Especially the post you responded to which mentioned when things get going again 100k jobs will be created overnight.

People should not assume that all these jobs will come back in an instant, even if they do hours may be affected and wages lowered. Companies will take advantage of this and be reluctant to pay full bonuses and pay raises for the foreseeable future, people will be fearful, fear breeds uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty.

The property market is about to fall off a cliff, anyone who is denying it has vested interests, is seriously naive or was literally born within the past 10 years.

It naive to thing that jobs will be created... Are all bars etc, creches etc, shops etc going to stay closed?

Some will - thats a given

Bonuses wont be paid.... Obviously productivity per employee will be down

PommieBast

Idbatterim wrote: »

the way I see it. the government will probably fund completion of these, if the builders etc cant.

Trouble is that as soon as any sort of corporate welfare is on the table, every single firm out there will be making up some sob story to get some.

Slydice

I hope this is more than Temporary Emergency Accommodation where people have to be out wandering the streets during hours when they are not allowed be in the Temporary Emergency Accommodation.

Work continues on protecting those in Emergency Accommodation during the Covid 19 Crisis
Published on Saturday, 21 Mar 2020
https://www.housing.gov.ie/housing/covid-19-coronavirus/work-continues-protecting-those-emergency-accommodation-during-covid-19

Since the threat of Covid 19 became apparent a number of weeks ago, the Department of Housing Planning and Local Government, the DRHE, NGO’s and local authorities across the country have been working alongside the HSE to protect those in Emergency Accommodation during the current crisis. Early meetings between Minister Murphy and the DRHE resulted in work to secure the necessary facilities for self-isolation for those in Emergency Accommodation and extra funding has been made available to service providers, NGO’s and local authorities to protect vulnerable people and those who work with them.

The Minister commented:

“This country has shown how we can come together in a time of crisis and this has been very evident over the last number of weeks with all those who provide much needed services for people in emergency accommodation. Intensive engagement between my department, NGO’s, local authorities and the DRHE is ongoing and earlier this week I guaranteed our NGOs any additional funding that is needed to take the necessary actions to keep users of their services safe, as well as their own staff.

Because of early action we have been in a position to secure facilities across the country for self-isolation that can be used if required. We will continue to secure more places as needed and discussions with other state sectors are ongoing in this regard. I know that many people and families currently accessing emergency accommodation will be worried for themselves and their families. I want to assure these households that their health and safety is a priority and we are working very closely with the HSE to do all we can to respond.

I want to thank our partner organizations and their staff who have been working day and night over the last number of days and weeks. People are pulling together across organisations and across communities and I will help them in every way that I can.

I remain in continuous contact with the Dublin Region Homeless Executive (DRHE) and local authorities nationwide to coordinate the response to Covid-19 and Minister English and I will speak with the main NGOs again next week as we continue to evaluate the measures already taken and take decisions on what more needs to be done.”

A range of measures are now in place and will be reviewed on a daily basis:

• Local authorities have secured additional emergency accommodation to ensure that there is sufficient capacity to allow for the isolation of confirmed or suspected cases of COVID 19;
• Additional funding has been made available by the Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government to operate the additional facilities;
• The Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government continues to work closely with the HSE and the National Public Health Emergency Team in relation to the response for homeless households;
• The Department has issued guidance prepared by the HSE to local authorities who are engaging with their service providers on the necessary measures;
• Local authorities are working closely with their HSE counterparts at the local level.