coronavirus and the property effect

handlemaster

From BBC

"Last week Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin predicted that US unemployment could reach 20%. On Thursday the Treasury Department will release last week's new jobless claims, and the numbers are sure to be in the millions. A Goldman Sachs report estimated that the nation's gross domestic product in the second quarter could shrink by 24%, dwarfing the previous 10% record decline in 1958"




When America hits the brakes europe will follow.. buckle up

gimmeshelt1er

Colleague of my husband viewed a property 12 days ago and offered the asking price. Offer accepted but we found it strange that a relatively smart man who is in a secure job (Engineer) just straight up go in at the asking price. He is borrowing a lot but must not be paying attention to what is to come.

guyfawkes5

gimmeshelt1er wrote: »

Colleague of my husband viewed a property 12 days ago and offered the asking price. Offer accepted but we found it strange that a relatively smart man who is in a secure job (Engineer) just straight up go in at the asking price. He is borrowing a lot but must not be paying attention to what is to come.

While property prices are looking like at least having a short term decline for obvious reasons, 2008 has warped our understanding of how property prices typically work so much that I would revaluate how sure you are about how much prices will fall and over what timeframe. It's worth thinking about the fact that part of why 2008 happened was that houses were seen as sure assets because of how they performed throughout recessions normally.

I'd agree that coming in at asking is maybe a little strange given the current climate and there's no harm in feeling them out on lower offers.

Zenify

gimmeshelt1er wrote: »

Colleague of my husband viewed a property 12 days ago and offered the asking price. Offer accepted but we found it strange that a relatively smart man who is in a secure job (Engineer) just straight up go in at the asking price. He is borrowing a lot but must not be paying attention to what is to come.

Never underestimate the stupidity of people. Including the smart ones.

Mic 1972

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

While property prices are looking like at least having a short term decline for obvious reasons

a short term decline? I would say a long one. What's happening now is purely out of fear and uncertainty. The real impact on property market will become visible in a while once the impact on economy wil start to show its signs

guyfawkes5

It depends on your definition of 'short term'.

If, for example, you're saying property prices will be significantly lower in five years, you'd have to say what has fundamentally changed in the property market that leads you to believe this. And if you believe that the reason is the current economic fallout will still be happening, then you'd be significantly overshooting even the worst case scenario predictions that are coming out at the moment by a few years.

IvoryTower

Seen as we cant spend money easily I wonder will there be loads of people with deposits ready to go when this blows over

johnnyskeleton

IvoryTower wrote: »

Seen as we cant spend money easily I wonder will there be loads of people with deposits ready to go when this blows over

People still have to pay rent and bills, which often takes up a large portion of their wages. That's assuming they are still being paid wages, and haven't been put onto social welfare.

I'd say the number of people who will end up in a better financial position as a result of Covid-19 will be small

Slydice

Looks like just the section in the middle applies to Accommodation & Property. The rest of the release looks to be business related.

Government Action on Planning during Covid 19 Crisis
Published on Wednesday, 25 Mar 2020
https://www.housing.gov.ie/planning/covid-19-coronavirus/government-action-planning-during-covid-19-crisis

In relation to the planning system more generally, local authorities play a key role in facilitating general construction activity (including residential construction) through a range of responsibilities, including granting permissions under the Planning and Developments Acts and granting Fire Safety Certificates and Disability Access Certificates under the Building Control Acts.

The Minister and his Department have been engaged with the local authority sector to ensure that these critical processes are identified in business continuity planning and maintained as a critical service. The Minister has also engaged with An Bord Pleanála and the Office of the Planning Regulator, regarding their business continuity arrangements.

Every effort is being made to ensure that these systems can continue to operate, with appropriate accommodations, taking account of public health advice. Many of the systems including the Building Control Management System can be accessed remotely over the local authority network, while in the case of planning, there are established systems in place that enable people to view planning applications and make submissions on-line in many planning authorities, which can be maximised.

Local authority public offices and the Offices of An Bord Pleanála are remaining open to the greatest extent possible, subject to adherence to HSE guidelines on physical distancing and any local arrangements around managed access.

handlemaster

18 % unemployment been predicted for early summer if shut down continues for 12 weeks

Slydice

Ok, so two releases today.

First: looks to be saying: planning/planning permission system will stay open
Second: looks to be saying that tourist caravan parks are closing but permanent caravan parks are not


Planning System Remains Open for Business
Published on Thursday, 26 Mar 2020
https://www.housing.gov.ie/planning/covid-19-coronavirus/planning-system-remains-open-business

Every effort is being made to ensure that these systems can continue to operate, taking account of public health advice. Local authority public offices and the Offices of An Bord Pleanála remain open.

Importantly, if the order is made, the effect is to not to freeze everything in the planning and building control systems, but rather to extend certain time periods, so that the integrity of decision making or public participation process are not compromised.

Clarification on Caravan Parks
Published on Thursday, 26 Mar 2020
https://www.housing.gov.ie/housing/covid-19-coronavirus/clarification-caravan-parks

On Wednesday, as part of the package of new measures to tackle COVID-19, the Government announced the closure of tourist/caravan parks.

Since then, a number of local authorities have been contacted by people who had been residing in caravan parks and were concerned about having to leave.

I want to clarify that the closure of the caravan parks relates to the need to restrict tourism activity and the movement of people during the current crisis. It does not apply to people living permanently on the sites.

The owners of such caravan parks are asked to ensure that people residing permanently on these sites are allowed to remain.

Slydice

Latest measures announced on the main gov website:

New Public Health Measures effective now to prevent further spread of COVID-19
Published: 28 March 2020
From: Department of Health and Department of the Taoiseach

Until the 12 April, everyone is urged to stay in their home wherever possible. Staying at home is the best way to minimise the risk of COVID-19 to your friends, families and communities.
Stay at home

There are exceptions for some workers in key businesses but for the majority of people, the rule is simple: Stay at home.

Exceptions
Stay at home in all circumstances, except in the following situations:

• to travel to and from work where the work is considered an essential service. You can see the full list of essential workers here

and some parts of the "List of essential service providers" webpage that look to be relevant to Accommodation & Property:

List of essential service providers under new public health guidelines
Published: 28 March 2020
From: Department of the Taoiseach
https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/dfeb8f-list-of-essential-service-providers-under-new-public-health-guidelin/

The government has decided that everyone should stay at home until 12 April 2020, except for the following situations:

• to travel to and from work, or for purposes of work, only where the work is an essential health, social care or other essential service and cannot be done from home

workers in the categories of essential services set out in the attached appendix are permitted to travel to work, subject to compliance with the guidance below.

If you carry out an activity that is necessary for the continued provision of an essential service by another organisation or you are part of an essential supply chain, you should continue to carry out that activity. To the maximum extent possible, that should be done remotely.

Repair and installation of Machinery and Equipment

• the supply, repair and installation of machinery and equipment and industrial machinery and equipment for essential services

Construction

• essential health and related projects relevant to the COVID-19 crisis, and supplies necessary for such projects
• repair/construction of critical road and utility infrastructure
• delivery of emergency services to businesses and homes on an emergency call-out basis in areas such as electrical, plumbing, glazing and roofing

Accommodation and Food Services

• hotels or similar providing essential accommodation (including homeless, direct provision and related services)
• food and beverage service activities in accordance with the separate essential retail outlets list or for supply to a business engaged in an essential service

Rental and Leasing Activities

• rental and lease of cars
• light motor vehicles and trucks necessary to support the provision of essential services

Dolbhad

As financial services and legal services are essential services, at least any sales near the finish line can close ie closing funds can issue and closing documents can be sent (provided all was previously signed)

akesha

Dolbhad wrote: »

As financial services and legal services are essential services, at least any sales near the finish line can close ie closing funds can issue and closing documents can be sent (provided all was previously signed)

Are you totally sure? I am in doubt:

accountancy, legal and insurance services necessary to support essential services and vulnerable people

Are selling houses necessary to support essential services? Or maybe I understand this wrong?

marcobon

It's a an interesting time...

We got everything sorted this week and on Thursday we collected the keys. On Friday they started with the flooring (as it is a new build). Since the government announcement on Friday evening everything is stopped: floor fitting, deliveries and other stuff. This means until this is all resolved we cannot finish and we cannot move there.

I've been looking at the list of conditions allowed, but I don't see much hope. Now to hope that this won't take many weeks and will have us with rent + mortgage alltogether...

Dolbhad

akesha wrote: »

Are you totally sure? I am in doubt:

accountancy, legal and insurance services necessary to support essential services and vulnerable people

Are selling houses necessary to support essential services? Or maybe I understand this wrong?

I don’t expect legal offices will be opened or for them to meet clients. Most staff will be working from home. But I would think this would help having one staff member get into the office to get closing documents and check them.

Otherwise really will be standstill to property market if banks will still issue for funds for closing but on the solicitors side it can’t be closed. Maybe it is wishful thinking. I’ve a colleague who was told Friday closing document were being sent to their solicitors office Monday for closing so hoping for them their solicitor can get to the office to check the documents. Mortgage is already drawn down.

ZX7R

Dolbhad wrote: »

I don’t expect legal offices will be opened or for them to meet clients. Most staff will be working from home. But I would think this would help having one staff member get into the office to get closing documents and check them.

Otherwise really will be standstill to property market if banks will still issue for funds for closing but on the solicitors side it can’t be closed. Maybe it is wishful thinking. I’ve a colleague who was told Friday closing document were being sent to their solicitors office Monday for closing so hoping for them their solicitor can get to the office to check the documents. Mortgage is already drawn down.

Closing documents can and will be singed and returned via registered post

akesha

ZX7R wrote: »

Closing documents can and will be singed and returned via registered post

I really hope so, I have exchanged contracts with purchaser this week, and we have closing date in two weeks, but I told my solicitor to try to close as soon as possible.

EA doesn't seem to be keen to deliver the keys though. Seems we might need to use post for this...

MyaP

Hi all, we are sale agreed on a secondhand property in North Dublin as of earlier February. We thought they wanted the sale closed quickly (executor sale) but their solicitor has some outstanding items to address first so its taking much longer than expected. It needs work but ticks all our boxes. We went 20,000 over sale price when bidding against other prospective buyer but are now concerned about property value. Should we be renegotiating the price now? Also will bank still be happy to proceed? We had it valued in mid-February for the bank and have our loan offer for the property. It will be our forever home and we are FTB, any advice appreciated.

Claw Hammer

Have you paid over a deposit and signed contracts yet?

Slydice

Alright, two updates so far:
first: "crisis staff working in homeless NGOs providing emergency accommodation to homeless households are deemed essential personnel"
second: looks to be adding "23 days to the statutory time periods for processing planning applications". Looks complex. Some details and link below.


Further Update on Homeless Services in light of new restrictions
Published on Sunday, 29 Mar 2020
https://www.housing.gov.ie/housing/covid-19-coronavirus/further-update-homeless-services-light-new-restrictions

For the duration of the current crisis staff working in homeless NGOs providing emergency accommodation to homeless households are deemed essential personnel. Staff involved in the provision of private emergency accommodation (Hotels and B&Bs) are also categorised as providing essential services to our most vulnerable.

Minister Murphy said: “My Department remains in contact with local authorities and our NGO’s providing services across the country. We have assured them that their staff are considered essential workers and the services they provide deemed essential. I want to thank them for their ceaseless dedication and work since the crisis first emerged and reassure them that we will do all we can to help them keep some of our most vulnerable citizens safe.”

Public participation period in the planning system extended
Published on Sunday, 29 Mar 2020
https://www.housing.gov.ie/planning/covid-19-coronavirus/public-participation-period-planning-system-extended

This will impact on the time taken to process planning applications, in the following ways:

• If an application was lodged before 21 February 2020, the public participation phase is completed, and so a planning authority can make a decision within the extended deadline;
• If an application was lodged after that date, but before 29 March 2020, the decision cannot be made until after 20 April 2020 to ensure that the public participation element has been completed;
• If an application is lodged after 29 March 2020, it cannot be decided by the Planning Authority until the five-week period for public consultation on the application commences, which will now be after 20 April 2020.

MyaP

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Have you paid over a deposit and signed contracts yet?

Have paid deposit, surveyor out and valuer and now just waiting to sign contracts

ZX7R

akesha wrote: »

I really hope so, I have exchanged contracts with purchaser this week, and we have closing date in two weeks, but I told my solicitor to try to close as soon as possible.

EA doesn't seem to be keen to deliver the keys though. Seems we might need to use post for this...

You could be waiting for the Key's the ea would not be a essential service

akesha

ZX7R wrote: »

You could be waiting for the Key's the ea would not be a essential service

We still have one of the keys, I guess we might be able to send it by post to the buyers to close the deal completely? I don't think this lockdown will last only 15 days, I reckon it will be extended, so somehow I would like to go ahead...

ZX7R

akesha wrote: »

We still have one of the keys, I guess we might be able to send it by post to the buyers to close the deal completely? I don't think this lockdown will last only 15 days, I reckon it will be extended, so somehow I would like to go ahead...

Contact your solicitor in regards to sending the key .
Handing over the keys in reality has nothing to do with the completion of the contracted deal.

Dolbhad

ZX7R wrote: »

Closing documents can and will be singed and returned via registered post

Yes but closing documents need to be sent to the solicitors office. So if solicitors can’t get into the office to send the documents on sellers side or collect on the purchasers side, that’s where the issue occurs.

Seems legal services are exempt for essential services but another poster raised a good question, would conveyance be essential services?

wirelessdude01

marcobon wrote: »

It's a an interesting time...

We got everything sorted this week and on Thursday we collected the keys. On Friday they started with the flooring (as it is a new build). Since the government announcement on Friday evening everything is stopped: floor fitting, deliveries and other stuff. This means until this is all resolved we cannot finish and we cannot move there.

I've been looking at the list of conditions allowed, but I don't see much hope. Now to hope that this won't take many weeks and will have us with rent + mortgage alltogether...

We will be th same from tomorrow. Solicitor emailed to say closing will be happening and keys handed over so now stuck with rent and mortgage payments for the foreseeable.

ZX7R

Dolbhad wrote: »

Yes but closing documents need to be sent to the solicitors office. So if solicitors can’t get into the office to send the documents on sellers side or collect on the purchasers side, that’s where the issue occurs.

Seems legal services are exempt for essential services but another poster raised a good question, would conveyance be essential services?

Solicitors are covered under the financial and legal activities . and
Insurance purposes to support essential services and the vulnerable persons
They are aloud to be open and practice just not to the general public.
Nothing to stop them continuing working on other work during the period.

jrosen

We haven't closed.

Last we checked the floor crowd said they could do the floors as its a new build but now thats not looking like its the case. Dont want to be in a position of signing, paying the mortgage and also rent on our current home.
We have sent the solicitor an email saying we want to hold off closing. We have been ready for weeks, the builder and the local authority have been the hold up all along. Now Im not pushed to move until we know we can get in and at the very least have floors down.

Slydice

One on homelessness today. Sounds like they are looking for more places. 600 mentioned which is 600/10148 = 5.9%
Statement from Minister Murphy on February 2020 Homeless Figures
https://www.housing.gov.ie/housing/homelessness/statement-minister-murphy-february-2020-homeless-figures

extra capacity means that self-isolation can be put in place where needed, but also so that we can de-congregate settings to allow for proper social distancing measures