General British politics discussion thread

Sudden Valley

I think Boris may just about scrape the next election, which will be the last, and his successor will bear the brunt of dissatisfaction with some of the conservative policies and their outcomes. A bit like our own teflon leader, Bertie. I just suspect Labour may implode before next election.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119243324#Comment_119243324

Why do you suspect Labour to implode? It's their election to lose. Between now and 2024 (at the latest) the economy's not going to recover, the EU is going to be forced to tighten screws tighter because of the NIP shenanigans by the Tories, oh and "Winter is coming" and energy costs will start to go down elsewhere bar England, as they're in such a weak position internationally.

Shelga

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119243393#Comment_119243393

But people are not loving Labour, they're sick of Boris, that's the difference. Look at Keir Starmer's wishy washiness on the RMT strikes- he won't even say whether he's for them or against them. People can see someone who is being led by focus groups and not just saying what he means, even if it alienates some. He's not in an easy position if he wants to keep Brexit voters on side at a general election, but he doesn't really have them at the moment as it is. He may as well start trying to sound like he has some convictions.

Also, I really don't see Labour winning a majority at a GE. They've lost Scotland for the foreseeable future to the SNP. They've gone from having 56 MPs in Scotland after the 1997 election, to just 1 now. I think their only hope of being in government after the next election is some kind of alliance with the Lib Dems and possibly the Greens. If they do a deal with the SNP, it will mean granting them another independence referendum. I don't think the future is particularly bright for Labour.

Shelga

Labour has 179 MPs in England, to the Tories' 344. Even if they keep their 22 seats in Wales, that's 125 seats they need to win in England alone, to get the barest of majorities in the HoC. Seems like a huge ask. Surely winning around half that and making a pact with the Lib Dems on the rest is the only real way to oust the Tories. It would be completely self-defeating of Starmer not to do this, and risk splitting the vote in constituencies where voters are forced to choose between Labour and the Lib Dems. Under stupid FPTP, you end up handing the seat to the Tory candidate.

When you have an archaic voting system, you have to game it to win.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119243784#Comment_119243784

Lib Dems are Tory light. The majority of their voters won't vote Labour and certainly not to the level labour voters will go for Lib Dems

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119243719#Comment_119243719

A grim but not inaccurate analysis. Scotland is gone and he needs it to conjure any sort of convincing win.

The problem is that a lot of older voters remember the winter of discontent. It's why the tabloids are aggressively pushing an anti-union narrative. Keir knows he has a mountain to climb to win and so picking a side is probably of limited long term benefit considering that the unions traditionally support Labour.

I think he thinks that he can dance between the raindrops like Corbyn failed to do. The problem is that Brexit voters have the Tory party and Remain voters will either stay at home or vote Lib Dem/Green. It's not exactly exciting, much as I like Starmer.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119239783#Comment_119239783

Odious is right.....truly disgusting. Lynch is handling them well but is the population even listening. I'm wondering if large swathes of the electorate are so brain dead/polarised/brainwashed now that the type of stuff you see on British media might actually continue working

Richard madely asking him if he was a marxist/terrorist etc etc......is this what a large % of tye populace want? Demonise a group trying to protect their livelihoods and continue the race to the bottom.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119244210#Comment_119244210

If they get SNP in a coalition under an Indy ref 2 guarantee, they should simultaneously run a PR/STV ref as if Scotland leave its the only way labour have a chance of ever winning an alection ever again.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119244539#Comment_119244539

Is there any likelihood that another PR referendum would result in FPTP being overturned though? I know that you're proposing STV versus AV as was proposed the last time, but I don't think it would make much difference. Another relentless campaign from the oligarchs to either convince voters to vote against it, or what's even more likely, to convince them to stay at home would be employed again and would probably be successful again. The turnout was only 42% the last time, and the result clearly indicated that the No voters were more motivated.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119244539#Comment_119244539

Ideally but let's be honest, no Labour PM is going to want to lose Scotland. It's a bank of nearly 60 potential seats should the SNP's star ever begin to wane. Scotland leave poses all sorts of military issues regarding the North Sea. It'd devour an appalling amount of governmental capital should Scotland ever leave.

There's another thread for that. I just wanted to point out that no Labour PM would recklessly gamble on Scotland like that. Hopefully the Lib Dems can eat some Tory seats but given that Jo Swinson genuinely thought she'd be PM, that may not happen.

Sam Russell

I think a genuine STV system, preferably multi seat, would change the whole landscape.

The Labour Party could well split into Lefties, and Trade Unionists. they could fragment into more groups, but I doubt it.

Likewise the Tories could well split into the Ultras (ERG types) and the One Nation types that were purged by Johnson.

The LibDems and Greens could find some members (or voters) moving to one of the other groups, of find membership (and votes) coming from other factions currently at home with the two major parties, once they see a chance of electoral success for their views.

Would Starmer gamble on a second IndyRef in Scotland failing?

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119244979#Comment_119244979

Can her form a majority without the SNP? Because assuming he can't an indy referendum will be their asking price to prop them up in Government.

If somehow he did not need the SNP I doubt he would be keen, he wouldn't want to be known as the man who lost Scotland when it comes to the UK.

hotmail.com

UK (and Ireland's) obsession with US culture rubbish has brought welcome relief for Johnson.

The usuals are tweeting about abortion in America now.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119244621#Comment_119244621

Who would back it? The bulk of MPs probably won't. The bulk of the media (or at least the media owners) want the people to have less control, not more.

If they were to have another vote, I'd expect far more lies than we've seen in the last six years from them.

gmisk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119242555#Comment_119242555

Pretty sure there was a lib/lab voting pact. People voted tactically in each.

Itssoeasy

The Wakefield seat wasn’t that big of a surprise because it was a return to labour which it had been for years. The Devon seat one I think is going to feel out some Tory MPs and there was one on bbc radio 4 this morning(whose name escapes me) but he said if an election essay held tomorrow he couldn’t hold his seat which has a near 20,000 vote majority which will possibly focus some minds.

I’d be curious as to how posters here think voting pacts work on the whole in the UK. And also if I was Keir starmer I wouldn’t be celebrating the Wakefield seat too much because I’d love to how much was a vote for labour and not a vote against Boris Johnson. I’m not in favour of protest votes because IMO you should vote for a candidate for something they stand for and not for what they don’t. A instant turn off in politics for me is someone asking for a vote “because we/I’m not party X,Y,and Z.” Maybe that’s too rigid but it’s just the way I am in politics.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119246049#Comment_119246049

Firstly very few people will vote "for" Labour as a protest vote. Outside of a green voter and a small amount of Lib Dems most will at best abstain.

Voting pacts have the same problem. Too many Lib Dems hate seeing Labour win just as much as a bad Tory party. I think Clegg gave a lot of people a distorted view of Lib Dems as a progressive young party but the "keeping up appearances" wing of the party is the real key demographic. The "I work hard for my money so no to tax" crowd that really hate Labour.

There are sites online that do a buddy system where 2 voters in no hope constituencies will agree to vote for each other's party which seem stop have some success among young voters.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119244516#Comment_119244516

This is where working culture has gone in countries with pronounced individualism. Collective bargaining is communism and poison to The Economy; that the individual should be able to plead their case, and if you can't, tough and you're probably a millennial woke softie. Just like how shítty things such as Zero Hour Contracts, or "side hustles" are supposed to be empowering the worker - as opposed to simply a way to stealthily swing the power back towards the corporations and the like...

Sam Russell

While Johnson is away for a few weeks, it gives the Tory plotters the time to plot. The various factions can form groups that lead to bigger factions, that then lead to fractious groups big enough to unseat the big dog. If they do not get their way, they could bring down the Gov (although that would appear to be unlikely).

It will all happen quite suddenly.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119247411#Comment_119247411

They'll already be plotting via Whatsapp and meeting up in each others' houses. Johnson was never really interested in the work of PM, much less managing his underlings.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119247676#Comment_119247676

Johnson was never really interested in work.

Itssoeasy

https://twitter.com/bethrigby/status/1540809583186296833?s=21&t=V-Oh-rVNqnpCzPf_BFgSuw

I wonder what the Conservative party top brass will think of those comments by Boris Johnson ?

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252049#Comment_119252049

Already rumors of people who voted to support Boris now changing their mind on the question but I'd guess the 1926 committee election will be the first signs of how things will go.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252049#Comment_119252049

I feel like these are comments that he has made to force their hand. No way does he want to continue in the job at this point.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252794#Comment_119252794

Wouldn't surprise me....imo he's the kind of guy that wants it without genuine effort, will do anything to get it (except what should be done, unless of course the right thing lines up with the most advantageous thing for Boris) and then and only then loves giving it away via a hospital pass so he can blame the next guy/girl when the **** really hits the fan.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252049#Comment_119252049

I don't know if anyone's seen the story where he wanted to build a £150,000 treehouse for his son, Wilfrid at Chequers. It apparently had to be blocked on security grounds.

He seems unable to empathise with anyone outside his own bubble at all.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119253464#Comment_119253464

Saw that today. In fairness a tree house for all the children he has is gonna need to be pretty big.

MPs in the UK used have a far more noble code than our own. Ya they fiddled the books but they owned up and resigned when caught. All changed over there now though

Igotadose

Considering Wilfrid was born 9 months after the big kerfuffle where the neighbors called the police due to the fighting noises between BoJo and Carrie, where Bojo the next a.m. gave out cups of coffee to the police... I like my wife's nickname for Wilf: "Makeup sex Johnson."

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119252794#Comment_119252794

Does have shades of the lady protesting / boasting too much all right. Though could just be us reading too much into the usual Johnson waffle. Then again the way things are going god knows.

BonnieSituation

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119253789#Comment_119253789

It's all about perception. By being forced out he'll have a "I wuz scorned" narrative to use as required.