General British politics discussion thread

ancapailldorcha

The Economist ran a convincing editorial this week arguing that Boris Johnson has become the Tories' Jeremy Corbyn. It's almost surprising how accurate that is when one considers how toxic the Tory brand has become in such a miniscule space of time. I recall when the worst thing they did was source PPE from friends of Matt Hancock via WhatsApp. Now, it seems to be a cacophony of scandals that's almost impossible to keep up with.

Whereas Labour had antisemitism, the Tories have what seems to be everything else. We've had banal cronyism, corruption, watching pornography in the Commons in front of other MP's, child sexual assault and now male groping. I know Major was mired in sleaze but this has to be on another level altogether.

Like Corbyn, Johnson has made a series of outlandish promises. Whether Corbyn would have jettisoned his at the first sign of inconvenience is a matter for debate. HS2 has been gutted to placate rural NIMBYs, the broken housing market is being preserved for investors via intergenerational mortgages and it's safe to say that nowhere has been levelled up yet.

If Corbyn is anything to go by, there is no successor-in-waiting. Therefore, Johnson will only be ousted following a disastrous election result. Meanwhile, he'll lose a seat here and a seat there with no change in the overall picture. There's a reason the Tories are moving the UK towards a one party state. They have no arguments any more, just power.

L1011

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119283123#Comment_119283123

Labour til 2010. Large majority is partially because its bordering "Red Wall", it was 12k in 2017. Easy to lose at a by-election.

Tom Mann Centuria

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119283359#Comment_119283359

The difference is a much less hostile main stream media to Johnson compared to what Corbyn endured. Johnson is establishment, and they defend their own. Hence pictures on newsnight of Corbyn superimposed in red, over the Kremlin, or BBC asking if Labour wanted to nationalise sausages, whilst same programme depicting the Tory chancellor as Superman, or BBC correspondents arguing Johnson may not have been booed walking up St.Pauls, or if they were booing it was coordinated by leftists (odd though that those leftists didn't boo Patel et al. saving their voices maybe).

It's not even subtle, and never was.

Tom Mann Centuria

Now Starmer "we need to fight Brexit, 2nd referendum, FBPE etc." has turned around and is now keener on a Brexit closer to the Tories than the brexit Corbyn thought might be a workable idea. Corbyn suggested a customs union with the EU, Starmer has ruled it out.

So as well as breaking every single pledge he made to the Labour party membership to get elected as leader, he's now gone back almost wholesale on his position on Europe.

I'm not a Andy Burnham fanboy, he made some very poor choices as health secretary but I'd have him as leader every time over Starmer.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119285507#Comment_119285507

This doesn't matter now though. Johnson is that toxic that his media allies can't cover it up any more. Corbyn was a disaster from any angle. The two are perfectly comparable.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119289000#Comment_119289000

Starmer seems obsessed with not offending or doing anything to alienate 2016 Leave voters but it seems an extraordinarily lame approach - recent opinion polling (from YouGov I think) suggest the vast majority of people think Brexit is going really badly.

It looks poor from a leadership point of view, as if he has absolutely no vision of his own and will do or say just about anything to get elected.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119289051#Comment_119289051

What's the alternative? Where do votes for a majority Labour government come from? Scotland is gone and the red wall, even if it flips again won't be enough. He'll need at least some southern English votes.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119289101#Comment_119289101

I totally get that saying that he wants to rejoin the Single Market is a non runner. But it would be interesting to hear him say "the Tory Brexit is an abject failure". People are nearly forgetting that Brexit, the Withdrawal Agreement, the Irish Protocol etc are not some abstract event that happened outside the party political system but are 100% owned by the Tory Party and Boris Johnson.

Starmer's current stance makes it seem like he's not even bothered by the fact that hard Brexit is failing and leaving the SMCU was always a terrible idea.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119289220#Comment_119289220

Labour are almost certainly commissioning various polls and focus groups and are calibrating their statements accordingly. The problem of Brexit is that it was initiated by a 52% majority on that accursed referendum. Proposing to undermine that result, desirous and logical as such actions may be must be done very, very carefully. Starmer won't want to share power with the SNP or the Lib Dems so that leaves him very little in the way of potential voters.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119289291#Comment_119289291

One amusing aspect of all this is that is that the right wing press are busy attacking the Irish Protocol - this despite the fact that it is a fundamental part of Brexit, was a Tory Party idea and was ratified by them.

So the right wing press and the hard Brexiteers can attack a key element of the Tory Brexit, but somehow Starmer is forbidden from saying anything critical about it - there are so many huge contradictions in the whole Brexit malarkey.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119289337#Comment_119289337

There were always glaring contradictions in the Brexit farce, namely the idea of going global by erecting borders, barriers and cutting off access to the world's largest single market. Nothing new there.

The Tories want to turn the UK into Hungary, ie an authoritarian one party state. Whatever advances that goal at any given time will be done even if it must be undone in a month or two.

A Dub in Glasgo

The Labour party are essentially cowards and Starmer is a damp squib as a leader

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291103#Comment_119291103

Hard to disagree with Caroline Lucas on this. She's not trying to win an election obviously but at least she's calling a spade a spade here - somebody needs to say it.

https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/1543954527539412993

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119289101#Comment_119289101

I don't think a Labour majority government is realistic and if they are building a strategy around that then they are on a hiding to nothing.

Starmer seems to be going into battle with the Tories for the same voters, those who still believe that they should stick with Brexit (even if many of them are aware of the damage it is doing). These voters are likely Tory voters to begin with and unlikely to switch to Labour so I can't see that approach getting Labour anywhere close to a majority.

There is an ever growing portion of voters looking for a different approach but nobody seems to want to directly appeal to them. I can see Starmer getting beaten with the same "well you went along with it too" stick which was used on Corbyn. Labour should be pointing out the many fallacies of Brexit and offering a different approach. "We'll make Brexit work" is exactly what the Tories are offering, with that Labour ate essentially endorsing Tory policy.

The first goal for Labour should be the removal of the Tories from government. Going into battle with LibDems is only going to split the non-Tory vote and ensure more Tory seats. Anything but a crushing Tory defeat will allow them to regroup, say they did there penance and be back in government after sitting a term out.

rock22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119289101#Comment_119289101

Surely the alternative is to call it as it is. That Brexit is an absolute disaster for the UK, that they need a custom union at least with the EU and preferably to agree to follow EWU standards in some areas to sort the NI Protocol even if they are shy of agreeing entry to the SM.

it makes no sense, now that voters are beginning to question the whole Brexit mess, for Starmer to come out and say he will change nothing and will just make it work.

And his ideas are again based on the idea of "UK exceptionalism" which will of course see the petty EU running to agree a new deal with Starmer. He must know how toxic the UK is seen from the outside. Or perhaps he doesn't?

Again we have a political party focussed only on its' own survival and growth at the expense of what it best for the UK, all of it. That seems to be what Starmer has learned from the Tories.

Remainers need to stay firm. Brexit was a disaster which will only get worse. More and more peoe are beginning to realise this , Eventually only the extreme right , i.e Farage and co. will continue to argue that Brexit is a great new beginning but the y will be so small they can be ignored.

To be honest, it wouldn't surprise me to see an about turn by the Tories on the EU before labour grasp the nettle on Brexit.

pixelburp

Calling Brexit a disaster from which the UK must remove itself, is political suicide. There's more than enough firesale fundamentalism fuelling the Red Tops, along with the Anglo nationalists insisting the soft millennials need some Blitz Spirit, to ensure any major politician who steps forward and speaks the Quiet Part Loud will be destroyed in the media - and subsequently, the polls.

Labour are showing no backbone, but I also see why they're trying to dance on the pin here. New Labour ensured they have to placate all those wavering centrists now, instead of simply being purely a Left Wing party.

I don't disagree there's a growing cohort coming to realise Brexit is a disaster - but while the media informs voters, there are too many hostile vested interests that'll destroy any opponent to the folly. Once the Daily Mail / Express folds, watch Labour pivot.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291624#Comment_119291624

Starmer is going for the same Tory voters because he has to. The left either vote for him, the Greens or they abstain, thus aiding and abetting Johnson. That's a safer bet than alienating centrist voters now that the offer of a second referendum can't be made to entice them. The pool of potential voters is minscule. Scotland is lost, the cities are already largely Labour and the red wall is far from securely blue. That said, he still needs to flip at least some Tory seats or else he'll remain in opposition.

First past the post chokes doing politics differently to the point where it's all but impossible. Ideally, we could have someone like Macron and a British En Marche but we don't so we have to make do. The problem with going full on rejoin is that it just reopens the wounds that are closed. The tabloids will make hay out of it and far too many people will overlook Johnson's myriad character flaws and complete lack of ideas and principle. Alternatively, he'll catch flak for not being sufficiently Europhile by doing what he is now doing but the difference there is that centrist voters might swing away from the Tories and Lib Dems out of revulsion for the former and out of tactical reasons for the latter.

In the UK, you don't advertise the fact that you'd be willing to join a coalition. If Starmer said he was, he'd invite accusations of lunacy in the case of the Greens, betrayal from the Labour left over the Lib Dems and tuition fees and charges of dismantling the union in the case of Sturgeon all of which will cost him votes.

I appreciate that it's grim. I remain irrefutably convinced that rejoining the EU or at least close alignment is inevitable. A competent government might be able to make Brexit work by preserving the protocol and advancing international trade twinning with shrewd regulation of technology such as genetics, AI and social media. Instead, we get imperial measurements and crowns on pint glasses.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291688#Comment_119291688

I think you've contradicted yourself in the opening sentences of this post. Sure, Brexit is a disaster but we know that. However, as you say, the wisdom of it is only just beginning to be questioned seriously and openly. The road to requesting EU membership is a long one and the case needs to be made for it convincingly and repeatedly before it becomes a serious proposition. The EU won't readmit the UK if the political and cultural issues underpinning the leave vote remain unaltered.

Starmer by nature will only change his stance when he's sure it's politically viable. The consequence is that he'll always be behind the times. It doesn't matter how the UK is seen from outside. If he can win, he'll be in a position to begin to work on restoring its reputation and maybe renegotiating the trade agreement.

Brexit is done. Remain is dead. Farage and his toxic collaborators and his contemporaries have moved onto other culture war issues. They're venal but not stupid. It's simply business for them. As far as I can tell, people are resigned to Brexit. Reopening the debate means polarising the country even more and opening old festering wounds. As sad as it is, I think things need to get worse before they get better.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291759#Comment_119291759

I'm not sure pandering to the red tops does Labour any good, they won't be getting many/any voters from their readers anyway and will get no recognition for towing their line. If Labour pivot, it will be too late and they will be stained by not doing so earlier and the Tories will call it flip flopping.

Single Market and Customs Union are only dirty terms because Labour are also making it so. Labour needs to stop allowing Brexit be determined by May's red lines. There is no genuine reason why it isn't compatible with the original Brexit vote, only that Labour have made it so by going along with the Tory narrative. It's probably too late now and Labour have to hope that saying a slightly different version of what the Tories are saying is enough.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291824#Comment_119291824

The choice is not this Tory Brexit or "going full on rejoin". Labour's reluctance to developing a policy in the space between those extremes is only cementing those as the choices. Labour seem to be getting into a scrap over the voters least likely to vote for them.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291624#Comment_119291624

Many of the people who still believe in Brexit are Labour voters from the old red wall so not likely life long Tory voters.

Brexit is the reality and there is no option for Labour except to say they are the party to make it work (make it less sht than Tory Brexit)

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291911#Comment_119291911

Yes but if they are trying to make it work within the Tory created red lines, how are they offering anything different to the Tories? And what about all those who voted against Brexit or those who voted for but now regret it, what had Labour to offer them?

The choice is not this Tory Brexit or rejoining the EU. It's not that black/white, Labour need to present a coherent policy within the large grey area.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291955#Comment_119291955

Who said they are going to do it within the Tory red lines ?

All they have said is no return to the single market. Their recent statement at least tackles things like transitory workers visas. They at least are thinking about the real world problems the Tories have done nothing to tackle.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119291900#Comment_119291900

I didn't say that it was. I was just giving my opinion on Starmer and why I think he is making the choices he is making.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292122#Comment_119292122

They haven't differentiated their approach enough from the Tories. Will the general public see a difference, particularly with Starmer proclaiming to "make Brexit work", sounds exactly like what the Tories claim they will do. Tinkering with the finer details is not enough to differentiate their policy and the average punter is not going to delve into policy differences on visas.

Labour need to be able to clearly communicate the differences in their policies, making broad statements akin to the Tories then going into finer techincal detail to differentiate is not the way to do that. Corbyn had the same problem (although he also had several others), he couldn't really attack the Tories on Brexit s his own policy on it was seem as something similar.

I just don't see how this will attract the "just get on with Brexit" voter or the "the Tories have made a hash of Brexit and we need a new approach" voter.

Shelga

You can’t be in the single market without free movement of people, right? This is never going to fly in Britain.

I’d say any possibility of UK rejoining the EU is at least 20 years away, possibly never. Remember, they’d be rejoining on much less (to them) favourable terms than they had before they left. Would they have to adopt the euro/join Schengen etc as a condition of rejoining?

Anyway, I’m sure I speak for the vast majority of people in the EU when I say we have no interest in having them back any time soon. They’re absolutely exhausting to have as a neighbour and do not care about what’s best for everyone, only what’s best for themselves. Far better to cut our losses and adapt to the new reality, rather than trust them ever again. Possibly use trade sanctions to compel them to hold up their end of the deal regarding the NI Protocol.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292492#Comment_119292492

Corbyn was going to stay in the customs union iirc which was vastly different to the Tories.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292642#Comment_119292642

Hate to be pedantic but it was "a customs union", not the customs union. He also rabbited on about a "jobs first" Brexit, whatever that was and that free movement would end. This was in 2017. Not so different IMO.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292654#Comment_119292654

Fair enough. The party changes stanch on free movement in 2019 but like what you say about a customs union it was a form of free movement not exactly the one we have in the EU

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119292704#Comment_119292704

The customs union has nothing to do with free movement. Turkey is in a customs union with the EU. It's about goods.

cml387

Surely all this Brexity stuff belongs in the Brexit thread?

On other matters, surely Dominic Rabb deserves a Victoria Cross for repeatedly heading out into the battlefield of morning media armed only with a statement from no 10 that instantly falls apart and his own meagre resources.