General British politics discussion thread

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119708065#Comment_119708065

Sovereignty like - A seven-months pregnant Scottish woman faces being forced to give birth in a Spanish prison after being jailed for failing to pay a €420 fine.

Don't they realise she's a British Subject ?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119708065#Comment_119708065

Truss’ problem (and that of brexiteers in general) is that the sunlit uplands of growth that were promised are gone. They are now utterly unachievable. Covid and the war have been the final nails in the coffin, driving interest rates and costs of living and doing business. Truss has carried out the burial, the final coup-de-grace, with just binning the whole levelling-up agenda.

The only thing that is now possible, in terms of brexit ‘dividend’, is the ‘Singapore on Thames’ model. Hence the tax moves, the intended burning of regulations and rights, the ‘supply side reforms’. And I think that Truss and the Tories will find that that model is incredibly unpopular. And will wipe them out.

But that is literally all they’ve got.

Sam Russell

They have prepared for the ‘Singapore on Thames’ model by outlawing the holding of any protests - even the holding up of a blank white card - no that was Russia - no it was London.

I think the protests against Truss and her trussed up Gov will make the miners strikes and disturbances, involving police cavalry charges, will look like a gymkhana. Perhaps the poll tax ones might be more like it as they were more general.

Being reported this evening that the OBR report is going to show a £60-70bn unfunded position. Giving Truss and Kwarteng three options: 1) u-turn on all tax cutting plans, losing all credibility and becoming lame ducks, 2) push ahead with massive welfare and spending cuts, wiping out the Tories utterly in 2024 or 3) borrowing the money, leading to a crash in sterling currency and debt markets, wiping out the Tories utterly in 2024.

number 1) is the only option that doesn’t screw the UK utterly. But doubt it’s the one she will choose

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119715433#Comment_119715433

That option destroys Truss' premiership though. No way she picks that unless there's a rebellion. Doing a volte face on your primary policy isn't something any PM comes back from.

amacca

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119715433#Comment_119715433

I'm trying to come up with an analogy....its like they had a ship...and then decided to attach a plank to the deck....and then as the ship drifted towards the rocks....decided by popular vote why not take a walk the plank....now that they are on the plank and in the cold light of day its not as exhilarating as they thought they don't want to lose face by admitting defeat and walking back off it in order to take control of the ship and try steer it away from the rocks

Needs work and a bit David McWilliamsy I suppose but the more this develops the more bemused I become.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119715433#Comment_119715433

I've long believed that they have written-off winning 2024. They U-turned on 45p but that ironically is actually the smallest hit to government finances.

Tom Mann Centuria

If Labour do indeed romp 2024 they 100% need to back PR or risk even longer as opposition next time they're out of government The Tories are emboldened to make it even more difficult to be voted out the next time. They've got away with such brazen gerrymandering and disregard for Parliament already, they won't stop in any future ERG Tory government.

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119716255#Comment_119716255

My feeling is they will only actually go for PR if they squeak it. If they romp it then they will have internal pressure to try for a 2nd term.

Tom Mann Centuria

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119717221#Comment_119717221

Yeah you're probably correct but I still think it would be very short sighted, particularly as large swathes of the British electorate aren't the sharpest, with very short memories and the Shít pile the Tories will leave behind isn't going to be pleasant or easy to deal with for the presumably incoming Labour government.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119717221#Comment_119717221

And then it's back to flip flop where each side tries to undo the changes made by the previous administration.

Ideally they would just squeak in with SNP support, because with Scotland gone they'd need PR for Britain.

ArmaniJeanss

Isn't the problem that if it's not in their manifesto (and that seems unlikely) then they will 'need' to put it to a referendum. And they wouldn't really want to do a referendum half way through their term as that's traditionally when a government is at their lowest level of popularity before the late term sweetener budgets, and it can stupidly becomes a referendum on government performance (in much the same way that some of the Brexit vote could be put down to a 'stick it to Cameron' vote).

I put 'need' in quotes as strictly speaking their sovereign parliament could just vote it through, but realistically either manifesto or referendum is needed for PR to become established.

Sam Russell

PR is required for Labour, as PR would split the Tories. The current system favours the Tories by enough margin to guarantee them a majority two out of three elections.

They need to put in constitutional reform, get the constitution written down, and rid themselves of the House of Lords.

Replace the HoL with a Senate directly elected by the people with fixed term mandates. Not sure how to structure it, but basically about 250 or so members with multi seat STV voting so all sides are covered. It would be better for it to be an oversight body for the HoC, to review legislation, delay it if needed, and to oversee the miscreant behaviour of the Lower House.

fiveleavesleft

The Starmer side have no interest in PR, they see it as "defeatism". They are looking at different reforms.

Brown has done a Constitutional review for the party. This stuff or a watered down version is more likely.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/22/labour-considering-abolishing-house-of-lords-if-it-wins-next-election-leaked-report-reveals

Igotadose

HMG looks to be sidelining Suella DeVille on immigration as Truss wants more visas for cheap workers. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/suella-braverman-immigration-cabinet-truss-b2198378.html

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119717724#Comment_119717724

PR would likely split Tory into One Nation Conservatives and The Nasty Party (more right wing / UKIP ). Labour would split into New Labour and True Labour.

If they went for multiseat constituencies then the Lib Dems and Greens would get a lot more seats.

HoL has an average age of 71. Life expectancy of a Glaswegian man is 73.1 years.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119716097#Comment_119716097

Even eskimohunt seems to be in favour of Lab taking over.

I reckon the Tories know that they have screwed the UK economy (sure wasn't it intentional!) and they want Lab to be the ones to have to do the tidy up i.e. cutbacks, which will mean the Tories can condemn Lab and make themselves out to be the innocent and better choice for the subsequent GE (2029?)

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119718605#Comment_119718605

The av age of HoL might be 71, but they keep creating more. They even had to create a Russian spy to make up the donations numbers.

Brussels Sprout

More awful polls for Truss

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1578781265297563649

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119717724#Comment_119717724

A relative of mine is in the HoL so my view may be a bit skewed, but asking for reform in that place is barking up the wrong tree

Best hope is UK getting some form of AMS but it does not look likley from my view 😢

this is going to be a fascinating week. All reports in UK this morning are that Truss will be forced by cabinet and backbenchers this week to increase benefits in line with inflation. So that brings the whole tax strategy into question as doing that is unaffordable with the tax cuts without huge borrowing, which would tank the sterling markets,

she could end up not getting a single one of her budget measures through. So her position then is surely untenable.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119718653#Comment_119718653

Eskimo backs the winner so he can tell us all how smart he is because he told us all along.

Hard thing for the Tories is they don't have anyone coming up to lead. No young David Cameron in the wings

hotmail.com

The issue of voting reform is probably the least important issue concerning people in the UK.

And when the Brits did have a chance to have a say on voting reform in 2011, hardly anyone turned out to vote and the majority rejected the change anyway.

The only place you hear or read about PR is on boards or some people on twitter. It's a non issue for voters.

Seth Brundle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119723695#Comment_119723695

Is it a non issue amongst the politically disenfranchised public because they simply don't believe that it's an issue or were they simply not aware of what it meant and how it would change the electoral process? My understanding it that it was the latter: they werent informed properly and some of the media (as it does) spun lies about the change.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119723695#Comment_119723695

Based on a referendum from 11 years ago? Politics has changed, save for the Tories who've gone back to denuding the state for their donors. Fringe ideas like climate change action, PR and UBI are now being regularly discussed or have even entered the mainstream.

PR is now entirely within reach. The Labour party conference passed a motion demanding its adoption.

This sounds like you're trying to convince yourself rather than anyone else to be honest.

hotmail.com

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119724392#Comment_119724392

Only political nerds talk about voting reform and PR.

Sam Russell

The referendum on voting was a deliberate fudge by Cameron to comply with a commitment to the LibDems to have such a referendum, but was hurried and couched in such terms and misinformation that guaranteed its failure.

The referendum was not for 'voting reform' but for an 'Alternative Vote' system that was applied nowhere, not explained, and its effect not explained.

No wonder not many voted and those that voted said NO.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119724536#Comment_119724536

You might be right about how it doesnt concern the average person in the UK but that just shows how few people are aware of how undeomocratic FPtP is. One Government in 100 years elected by a majority of voters is a stark statistic.

hotmail.com

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119724564#Comment_119724564

This has happened frequently in Ireland with governments being in office with less than 50% of the first preference vote.

hotmail.com

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119724563#Comment_119724563

So you think the lack of interest and majority voting no was because of the Alternative Vote proposal. Had it been about PR, it would have gained much more interest and won.