General British politics discussion thread

awec · 10-10-2022 5:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119726909#Comment_119726909

They would still be an irrelevance in Scotland, gaining about 8 seats.

In Wales, they would gain nothing.

Moving to PR is nothing but a big loss for the Tories. They know this, they will fight tooth and nail to avoid it. If the result of elections in the UK was representative of the entire electorate they would struggle to ever get into power, since they never win the popular vote.

spacecoyote · 10-10-2022 5:41pm

I saw some stat around the FPTP rules and it's bias towards the Tories (apologies for no back up here, was a few weeks ago at least when I saw it)

Think it said Tories need to win popular vote by 2-3% to have a single party majority whereas Labour have to win by 7-8% to achieve the same numbers, so it certainly would be I Labours favour to make a change

awec · 10-10-2022 5:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119727001#Comment_119727001

In 2017 (the Theresa May snap election) the Tories got 42% of the vote and Labour got 40%. Pretty close, right? In terms of seats, this would bring about 13 extra seats if seats were proportional (though obviously not exactly).

But the Tories got 55 more seats than Labour, which is about 8% more.

HalloweenJack · 10-10-2022 5:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119726891#Comment_119726891

On what basis? Any studies to show this? FPTP certainly encourages voters to vote for their rivals' rivals if they feel voting for their own might be a waste so it is conceivable that a Lib Dem might vote Tory to keep Labour out if they feel their guy doesn't have a chance. This is removed in PR-STV.

You've had it explained to you by several posters now why FPTP benefits the Tories and PR-STV would provide a different result. You refuse to acknowledge this and just respond with tangents and non-verifiable statements:

- Tories are the most popular party in England = Irrelevant as the UK votes as a whole.

- FF led most governments in PR-STV = Yes but with a lot of coalitions and independent support too. A FF-led coalition is not the same as FF-only.

You're entitled to your opinion but its not based on any reality. It is wrong, no amount of whataboutery can change that. You are being wilfully ignorant. G'luck with that.

10-10-2022 6:07pm

The difficulty will be that if labour wanted to have a referendum introducing PR-STV, the opposition would muddy the water so much, putting out all sorts of perverse and unlikely outcomes in front of the people, that the vote could never be won. All the opposition have to do to win is confuse a majority of the population - make it out to be really complicated. And that won’t be difficult in the UK to be honest

it’s a really really hard argument to be won…..there’s no soundbite for people to rally behind like what there was with brexit. Just a process that most people will find complicated and therefore likely to disengage with.

the only chance labour would have is to do it early, when their popularity is at its peak, and try to leverage parry popularity. It will never be won on the principle alone

Akrasia · 10-10-2022 6:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119726891#Comment_119726891

Even if they did this, it means the Tories would lose some seats to the lib dems

Akrasia · 10-10-2022 6:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119727129#Comment_119727129

If Labour win a big majority they're unlikely to go for Electoral reform via PRSTV as many of the people who just got elected would likely lose their seat at the next election

If it's a tight victory then they're more likely to reform as the argument then is that they barely won even with the worst and most unpopular incumbent party they're ever likely to face, so they only have one chance to stop the Tories from getting back in 5 years later

hotmail.com · 10-10-2022 6:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119727100#Comment_119727100

Because if anyone knows anything about the Lib Dems we know they're basically the Tories.

Lib Dem seats alternate between Tories and Lib Dems.

It is not irrelevant that the Tories are the most popular in England, particularly if Scotland leaves the Union.

10-10-2022 6:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119727244#Comment_119727244

I don’t disagree with what they will or wont do. I just don’t think a vote can be won, unless opportunity is taken to leverage a large party majority. I don’t think it is possible to get PR-STV over the line in the UK based only on a debate of it’s merits.

Capt'n Midnight · 10-10-2022 7:04pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119726874#Comment_119726874

There are four countries in the UK, England is one of them.

A few elections back the three main English parties only got ONE seat each from Scotland and NONE at all from Northern Ireland.

VinLieger · 10-10-2022 7:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119727288#Comment_119727288

The idea of Tories winning under PR is moot because after 1 election cycle they would no longer exist, some would go to the lib dems the rest would split into 2 parties of One Nation tories and effectively a New UKIP. Labour would split into at least 2 parties as well into Corbynites and New New Labour.

Both parties are forced to hold far too many competing ideologies under one roof to avoid loosing power forever to the other side.

HalloweenJack · 10-10-2022 7:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119727288#Comment_119727288

My sister lives in the Red Wall and votes Lib Dem. She'd be disgusted to be called 'basically a Tory'. She'd likely vote Lib Dem, Greens, Labour in descending order in PR-STV.

Scotland hasn't left the union yet and it's going to be very hard for them to do it 'by the book'. The Tories wouldn't risk another Indy Ref any time soon and Labour would face an enormous shitstorm if they ran a campaign with an Indy Ref in their manifesto. It'd be very easy for the media to paint Labour as wanting to dissolve the Union and that'd cost them a lot of votes.

PR-STV in the UK would be different than PR-STV in England but again you're refusing to acknowledge that PR-STV eliminates the all-or-nothing aspect of FPTP. Look at the membership numbers for the Tories. It's not a stretch to say that a lot of their voters are floating voters who vote for what they see as lesser of two (or three) evils at any given moment (much like a lot of Democrat voters in the States). In PR-STV, where their vote has more power, they might give first preference to other parties they feel better represent their views as opposed to voting to keep the bad guys out.

hotmail.com · 10-10-2022 7:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119727359#Comment_119727359

Labour doesn't contest seats in the North. The Tories do but with absolutely no resources.

In England which is what I mentioned and is the vast majority of the UK, the Tories get close to 50% of the popular vote. They are massively popular in England.

hotmail.com · 10-10-2022 7:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119727434#Comment_119727434

Lib Dems in the south west of England is heartland of the Lib Dems. Seats switch between Lib Dems and Tories there. Perhaps your sister isn't aware just how similar the two parties are.

HalloweenJack · 10-10-2022 7:56pm

Again, that's under FPTP. PR-STV is a very different system. Your refusal to acknowledge or your inability understand that is beyond ignorance at this stage.

VinLieger · 10-10-2022 8:08pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119727488#Comment_119727488

Under PR-STV there are seats to be won everywhere, you really dont seem to grasp the difference at all

hotmail.com · 10-10-2022 8:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119727619#Comment_119727619

I think you're missing the point. No matter what voting system the Tories are and will be massively popular.

Sam Russell · 10-10-2022 9:48pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119727642#Comment_119727642

They are not massively popular at all. They get less than 50 % in elections - needing only about 43 % to win by a huge margin. Thatcher never had more than that in any election. No Gov has had for nearly a century.

FPTP distorts voting intentions, while in STV, every vote counts. In single seat STV, there is no gaming, as the winner needs to got 50%+ - that is it. With FPTP, voters can vote tactically to try and unseat a party they do not like, but that is not necessary in STV.

What could happen in safe seats is the leading party could field two candidates, and let the voters decide. Of course, that means the Party cannot decide the winner - the voters do. Of course they will not do so.

That is the real problem with STV - the Party loses control.

VinLieger · 10-10-2022 9:57pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119727642#Comment_119727642

And you don't understand that the Tories and Labour will absolutely split apart if PR-STV is implemented so your obsession with claiming they are popular will mean nothing. Example in a PR-STV system you cannot have a party that contains a rishi sunak and a liz truss whose economic opinions are so opposite. They won't need to stay in one party anymore so they won't.

hotmail.com · 10-10-2022 10:14pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728080#Comment_119728080

Almost half the adult population who voted in England, voted Tory in the last election. This is similar to the popularity of Fianna Fail in their heyday.

I don't know what you're definition of popular is but I would say they are massively popular in England. English people respect and trust the Tories to govern their country.

hotmail.com · 10-10-2022 10:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728130#Comment_119728130

The two Tory parties would end up winning a majority and form a coalition. I suspect that's what would happen.

VinLieger · 10-10-2022 10:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728215#Comment_119728215

They can't currently win a majority and it's unlikely the lib dems would go into coalition with the far right split party, you are absolutely delusional at this stage.

hotmail.com · 10-10-2022 10:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728238#Comment_119728238

Lib Dems went into government with the Tories in 2010.

hotmail.com · 10-10-2022 10:44pm

A centre right type Tory party (Cameron, Ken Clarke etc) would probably get about 35% of the first preference in a PR system. The Euro sceptic right wing side of the Tory party would get around 15% of the vote.

This may be enough to form a government in that type of system.

= no change.

L1011 · 10-10-2022 10:47pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728302#Comment_119728302

Until people who absolutely don't want to see the eurosceptic right wing bit in government decide they'll vote for a centre left party instead, to get either a centrist coaliation or just anything without the wingnuts.

PRSTV comes in and the existing concept of the Tories is gone forever.

hotmail.com · 10-10-2022 10:54pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728312#Comment_119728312

It looks like euro scepticism won't be going away for a long time especially if there is a movement for re entry to the EU. Any euro sceptic party will get votes in the UK.

L1011 · 10-10-2022 10:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728339#Comment_119728339

But a centre-right party who only ever end up going in to government with a hard right eurosceptic party will die quickly.

hotmail.com · 10-10-2022 11:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728354#Comment_119728354

I suppose this is the ultimate aim of PR - to extinguish euro scepticism from British politics.

Good luck trying to do that in the UK. Euro scepticism is part of the culture in Britain. They don't really regard themselves as European.

PR may produce a LEFT wing euro sceptic party.

L1011 · 10-10-2022 11:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728360#Comment_119728360

With PR, its very likely that it would have withered after getting a few reps for Goldsmiths' Referendum Party in in 1992, where they would have made fools of themselves.

UKIP being kept out of Westminster more or less entirely by FPTP is what allowed their nonsense to get traction. "the elites are against us!" etc etc.

But no, the aim of PR is to stop governments with 43% of the vote acting as if they have 100%.

hotmail.com · 10-10-2022 11:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119728390#Comment_119728390

What per cent makes it ok for a government to be formed?

Would you favour a Northern Ireland situation where all the main parties have to form a coalition government? Their government, when it ever actually operates, must represent 3 quarters of the vote.

General British politics discussion thread

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