General British politics discussion thread

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119827133#Comment_119827133

Indeed, but there is a clear huge split in the 'Brexit movement'. Farage and many others are hurling abuse at Sunak and calling him 'the elite' and 'a globalist' despite the fact he was an actual committed Brexiteer. ERG clearly don't like Sunak. The whole Leave thing was a mass of contradictions.....a mishmash of cranks, ideologues, xenophobes etc each with their own individual agenda.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119828264#Comment_119828264

This was pretty inevitable given that A) there was no consensus on what Brexit actually meant and B) it was always doomed to failure and therefore blame must be apportioned.

Pete_Cavan

The Pound has had a big drop in value against the Dollar today, what did they do now?

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119828280#Comment_119828280

Probably the Bank of England declaring the UK is in a prolonged recession. Also upped interest rates to 3%

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119828326#Comment_119828326

Biggest interest rise in decades apparently.

Pete_Cavan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119828326#Comment_119828326

Fair enough, the interest rate rise was well flagged so surprised it has had that effect. Nearing Kamikwasi level of devaluation.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119828501#Comment_119828501

I don't really know how any of this works but the papers seem to be treating the BoE statement as very serious.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119828522#Comment_119828522

It is. It's going to wallop anyone paying a mortgage who isn't very wealthy. The insane thing is that all of this happened because the libertarians got into power. It's beyond farce.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119828535#Comment_119828535

Fixed rates have actually fallen due to this rise being priced in weeks ago and the expectation of cuts from next year. SVR holders will be hit hard though, yes

kowloon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119827713#Comment_119827713

Would it make much of a difference if the GOP was at the helm? The Irish-American Republicans might not be so keen.

Larbre34

Its very strange.

This afternoon and evening I've been reading Irish media coverage of the Bank of England's activities today.

They raised interest rates another 0.75% late this morning, then the Governor made a speech and gave various interviews describing a few things.

First, that thanks to the catastrophic fiscal actions of Truss and Kwarteng last month, the UK came within a whisker of financial structural paralysis and market meltdown, which would have seen the IMF and World Bank waltz in as caretakers to protect essential services and liquidity in the retail banks.

Second, he outlined the coming financial morass in the UK. A continuous period of recession for the next 3.5 years, a doubling of unemployment and Government austerity of unprecedented depths. All to be blamed on the damage from Kwarteng-Truss, Ukraine/energy inflation, Covid debt and of course the evil that dare not speak its name, Brexit.

Whats so strange is, this absolute financial nightmare of historic proportions seems to have barely caused a ripple in the British media, bar some reportage of the bare facts.

Are they just too close to the cliff face to see it??

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119828120#Comment_119828120

"The EU is protectionist" needs a bit more unpacking that this.

Couple of things we can put aside immediately. The EU is not protectionist in the old-fashioned sense of using tariffs to protect domestic producers. EU average tariffs are low - lower than US average tariffs, and the same Brexiters who denounce the EU as protectionist laud the US as a beacon of free trade. Whatever this "protectionism" is about, it's not about tariffs.

Nor is it about a general distaste for, or discouragement of, international trade or a preference for domestic trade. Not only is the EU, in itself, the largest and deepest multinational free trade area the world has ever seen, but it also has the largest network of trade agreements with other countries that the world has ever seen. This is not the strategy of an economy seeking to "protect" itself from foreign competition.

So it comes down to the factor that Podge points to; regulatory barriers. Those selling into the EU have to meet EU regulatory standards. These are demanding, and there's a cost to meeting them.

But this isn't "protectionist" in the sense that it protects or favours domestic producers, since domestic producers have to meet the same regulatory standards; the system doesn't give them any advantage over foreign producers.

That's not to say that foreign producers don't experience EU regulatory standards as a barrier; to they extent that, to sell into the EU, they have to meet standards that they don't have to meet in their home markets, there's an additional cost imposed on them - not to mention the further cost of demonstrating that they meet EU standards. But from the EU producers' point of view, there is no protection for them; there is a level playing field. They would be outraged - most people would say, rightly outraged - if foreign producers could sell into the EU without meeting the standards that EU producers must meet.

So the case for saying that the EU is protectionist really comes down to this; the EU is a regulated market with high standards.

Which means, obviously, that the only way for Brexit UK to position itself as less protectionist than the EU is to become a less regulated market with lower standards.

[On edit: In post #7388, Growleaves suggests that, because the EU is protectionist, "in theory, leaving it does open up the possibility of new trade deals". I think not. Given the nature of the EU's protectionism, the way for the UK to be less protectionist than the EU is lower standards. That doesn't require trade deals (unless you want to lower standards for goods imported from trade deal partners, but not for domestically-produced goods, which would be . . . insane, from every point of view).

The flurry of trade deal-agreeing that the UK has been engaged in for the last couple of years hasn't been about benefitting from Brexit; it has been about minimising the harm from Brexit. The UK has been trying to replace all the trade deals it fell out of as a result of Brexit.

In theory there is a possibility that the UK could negotiate replacement deals that are better for it than the deals it benefitted from as an EU member. In reality there is very little scope for that because (a) the EU trade deal network was pretty good for the UK; and (b) the UK has much less negotiating heft than the EU; even if a better trade deal is possible the UK is not well-positioned to get it. While there may be specific points where a comparison between the UK's new deals and the EU deals they used to benefit from will favour the UK deals, overall they deliver lower trade benefits to the UK than it enjoyed as as EU member. There may be a couple of pluses in the new deals, but they are vastly outweighed by the minuses.]

Slideways

Well said and eloquently explained Peregrinus

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119831235#Comment_119831235

Depends on which UK media I suppose. I got all my info from the Guardian yesterday and they also had a live ticker running on it.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119831235#Comment_119831235

I can't help thinking the English right wing press are desperately trying to cover up just how bad things are. The Bank of England have just announced a two to four year recession is on the way (an extraordinarily bad one by any standards) and yet the media guys are almost saying "Nothing to see here, move along". This should be dominating the news cycle for many months to come.

Compare this to the coverage of the Irish financial crash. Wall to wall coverage and analysis of all the developments, which went on for a lengthy period, perhaps well over a year at least. Things are unbelievably bad in the UK - a terrible government and a virtually non existent "media" not holding them to account.

Tom Mann Centuria

From the big brain at Gbeebies. Trying to suggest maybe the Tories need just one more go......

https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1588456176253128704?t=Fa4JAG-v1uPi7SUkS-0uwg&s=19

Even for this individual it's a shít take.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832624#Comment_119832624

I don't think it's a ludicrous theory, the Right Wing Press are absolutely trying to use smoke, mirrors and woke to rile up its audience and make it ignore the obvious, transparent issues at play. Otherwise they might direct their anger at the Toy government and its various lobbyists and paymasters than, say, the preferred target of Milennials and Gen Zs

growleaves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832624#Comment_119832624

Front page of The Guardian is Climate pact and Elon Musk....

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832678#Comment_119832678

The print version ?

The one I saw had the Manchester Bombing enquiry on the front. The website has Cop 27 and then lots of stuff including Musk if that's what you mean.

Yesterdays events seem to have dropped way down the page.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832652#Comment_119832652

James O'Brien on his LBC show today thinks it's all connected to Brexit. The media were the ones that sold Brexit to the disciples and therefore it is simply too risky for them to report on just how bad things are. They 'caused' the current financial disaster and recession but it's all smoke and mirrors from them in a desperate attempt to deflect attention away.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832649#Comment_119832649

Harwood is a known liar. I don't like using insults on this forum but in this case it is objective fact.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832652#Comment_119832652

While it's easy to be cynical about Britain's press and government in 2022, it's hard to find explanations that are not cynical. The migrant thing is weird because we have a useless, virtue signalling home secretary follow another useless, virtue signalling home secretary. The simple fact is that being in the EU offered an easy way to send migrants back to safe countries. Now, the UK must act as a supplicant to the French.

I'm baffled that this is their go to deflection to be honest. On the front of it, pandering to xenophobes is a tried and tested tactic. However, we're now in year 12 of government by the Conservative party and migration to the UK has never even been addressed beyond empty posturing. Prior to 2016's Leave vote, over half of all immigrants came from outside the EU. I don't think this is the way the press barons want to do this if they're trying to deflect blame from the Conservatives.

We're en route to a truly vicious winter. Government by culture war is all well and good when people are largely ok financially. Not so when the average mortgage is going up by over five grand a year (eight grand in London). Wages have tanked and we now have nurses seriously contemplating strike action.

Sir Graham Brady has confirmed that Johnson did indeed get sufficient backing to challenge Rishi Sunak. That he didn't do so suggests that even he knows that this is the ultimate poisoned chalice. I can't see Sunak remaining in post past January if even then.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832755#Comment_119832755

O'Brien isn't wrong, but he's been banging that drum for 6 years now, nobody listens to him except those that have long since agreed with him.

The question is, who in Britain can come out and call Brexit what it is and be listened to, across the spectrum?

Alan Bailey tried it the other day, couched in BofE economic jargon. Maybe the King??

Starmer ignoring the obvious and statistically backed case for rejoin has no credibility.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119832649#Comment_119832649

I liked the point the only year without a pandemic with a large majority was the year the Tories did the most damage...

Ahwell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119834145#Comment_119834145

Both the Financial Times and the BBC have very recently brought out videos highlighting some of the problems caused by brexit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO2lWmgEK1Y

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgIiElL-AFw

It's not much, but it might by the beginning of not just ignoring or lying about the obvious affects it is having.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119835243#Comment_119835243

A huge problem for the right wing press is that they were the architects of Brexit. They can only admit Brexit is a disaster by holding up their hands and admitting their own role in it. It's a really bizarre 'elephant in the room' scenario. Everyone can see that Brexit is an abysmal failure and yet nobody in GB can barely even discuss the subject publicly.

Tom Mann Centuria

Thank god the Tories are so terrible because Starmer and his front bench is frankly a bit crap too, today he said the NHS recruits far too much from overseas. If he relied on UK recruitment there'd be no one left. And not allowing Labour front bench to say they support a Nurses strike is also not a great look imo.

FraserburghFreddie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119840352#Comment_119840352

Starmer may not be flamboyant and partial to wild,extravagant undeliverable promises but I think he's spot on about recruitment overseas. If what I've seen in hospitals in Britain and Ireland is representative of the situation,there are jobs which could be filled by the domestic population.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119840425#Comment_119840425

Who wants to work for an appalling healthcare system where it's become normalised for highly skilled staff to require foodbanks?

Tom Mann Centuria

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119840425#Comment_119840425

But they're not filled by British people, and haven't been for decades. British doctors and nurses don't stay in Britain, and if they do, not in the NHS. Healthcare assistant jobs and Cleaning and portering aren't being filled by foreign nationals at the expense of British people, British people don't apply. The Irish situation for healthcare professionals is very similar.

Source: worked in healthcare in the UK and Ireland for over 25 years.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119840425#Comment_119840425

What jobs would those be ?