General British politics discussion thread

Hermy

They prorogue parliament for no good reason, they go on the p!ss during lock-down, they play silly beggars with the EU during Brexit negotiations but christ on a bike there's few cartoons on a wall that might not be age appropriate or have the green light from Disney - better remove them quick as lightening before anyone gets killed.

If only there was a way of replacing them with age appropriate royalty free cartoons...

breezy1985

I see Ben Wallace is the latest rat to leave the sinking ship.

Won't be contesting the next election.

Capt'n Midnight

Boris "forgot" his phones password.

The Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act 2000 s.49 and s.53 make it a criminal offence with a penalty of two years in prison to fail to disclose when requested the key to any encrypted information.

Forgetting a password, never knowing what it was or having a file of random numbers that the police believe is encrypted information is punishable by two years in prison, unless it could be CSAM - in which case the limit is 5 years. We have this awful law but for some reason it is applied selectively.

...

Unless the judge believes he is lying about forgetting it - then it's contempt of court and he goes to jail until he decides to remember it

political analyst

Does Sunak's refusal to accept the demands made by consultants and junior doctors mean that he thinks there's no point in trying to win hearts and minds ahead of next year's general election?

Water John

The strange thing is that they gave in and gave the general increase but said it would come from cost savings and visa costs. They know that won't work and the cost burden will fall on the next (Labour) govn't.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120877363#Comment_120877363

Nothing strange about that, if you think about it. If Sunak thinks he can get a few brownie points by being seen to resolve a dispute and create a longer-term problem for Labour at the same time, why wouldn't he jump at it?

pixelburp

3 more by-elections yesterday, 2 more seats lost by the Tories."Selby & Ainsty" going to Labour, with the Libs picking up "Sometimes & Frome"; Boris Johnsons old seat in Uxbridge was held by the Tories - but by only 500 votes, Johnson's majority basically wiped out. Won't pretend to know much about the constituencies lost by the Tories but seems like a drip drip drip at this stage.

breezy1985

The Selby win for Labour was a 25000 swing and 24% points.

Even the Tories are admitting Uxbridge was down to local issues. The ULEZ issue was so strong that there were 2 different independent groups running under anti ULEZ banners. It also attracted the finest of candidates such as Lawerence Fox and Piers Corbyn (who surprisingly didn't win 🤣)

In all 3 elections the drop in Tory support mirrors national polling.

rock22

Two notes of caution though.

The Conservatives seem to have said that retaining even one seat would be a great victory. And they have done just that.

The turnout was only about 45% in all constituencies. The Conservatives have suggested that they supporters just didn't bother coming out to vote. Not sure how the voting patterns compare to previous elections.

The same swings might not be replicated in a general election.

Water John

The biggest worry from Uxbridge is Tories campaigned and held the seat by running with an anti environmental issue. They may now see this as the narrow path to holding seats.

ArmaniJeanss

Not being able to win Uxbridge is kind of disappointing for Labour alright, and even suggests that the higher profile Johnson might actually have been able to retain it in the next GE. There seems to have been 'local factors' at play, specifically Ulez. It probably indicates that these traditional Tory seats in the London suburbs aren't going to be easy to turn red. They aren't particularly needed by Labour though, except by those who want a wipe-out.

The silver lining for Labour could be that this should shore up Sunak - three losses yesterday and the calls to replace him would have grown.

rock22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120878632#Comment_120878632

That might be a bit unfair. The ULEZ policy, means that only the poorer actually make a sacrifice , the wealthy just pay the charges . It will work from an environmental point of view but you reduce the CO emission because only the wealthy are allowed pollute. Having to pay about €15 each day you want to use your car would be a major burden on most working people.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120878702#Comment_120878702

How is it unfair. Nothing you said contradicts what the other rooster said.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120878601#Comment_120878601

Voter's don't just not turn out for the laugh. They do it because they don't see anyone worth voting for and there is nothing coming from the Tories recently to change that pattern.

The Tories can say all they want what is and isn't a massive victory but they don't get to decide the truth on that.

The truth is the Lib Dems and Labour are winning unprecedented numbers of by elections.

ancapailldorcha

Ordinarily, I'd say that by-elections don't count for much but for the Conservatives to claim that one out of three is some sort of victory is truly desperate. Uxbridge is pretty much NIMBY central so it makes sense that they'd hold that. Apparently, they even tried to imitate local papers in a disinformation campaign:

https://bylinetimes.com/2023/07/20/fake-news-conservatives-slammed-for-party-by-election-leaflets-pretending-to-be-local-newspapers/

Amid a trio of significant by-elections, the Conservative Party has been accused of repeatedly using “deceptive” tactics to win over the electorate.

In Selby and Ainsty, where voters go to the polls on Thursday (July 20), the party has launched what looks like a local newspaper, the North Yorkshire Chronicle. It is in fact a party political leaflet with a small imprint at the bottom noting it is promoted by the Conservatives, as reported by press industry title Hold the Front Page.

The leaflet follows on from the creation of the so-called “Somerton and Frome Chronicle” in Somerset, one of the other seats a by-election. Byline Times can reveal the Tories have used the same tactic in Uxbridge, with a leaflet branded “Uxbridge and South Ruislip People” – a very similar title to the local council freesheet, “Hillingdon People”.

One local source told this newspaper the leaflet “looks like a deliberate attempt to imitate the Hillingdon People to me.” Uxbridge Tory candidate Steve Tuckwell is resident and local councillor. “It’s completely implausible that the similarities are a coincidence,” the source added.

They're still using their FactcheckUK and NHS Susan tactics.

In other news:

https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/1681373053249257479?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1681373053249257479%7Ctwgr%5E13caf699b3309eefe0d30b57fec381f7e5656024%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thelondoneconomic.com%2Fpolitics%2Fmission-accomplished-poorest-brits-officially-have-lowest-share-of-total-income-since-records-began-352936%2F

It's shocking but unsurprising what decades of Conservative rule have done to this country. New Labour of course must bear some of the blame but this is utterly damming.

breezy1985

This "victory" in Uxbridge saw the Tory majority go from 7201 to 495.

Not really sure that can be seen as an endorsement of anything really. It bucked a trend of substantial loss but it's still a fine chunk.

Interesting article on it here.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/21/byelection-results-paint-ominous-picture-tories-despite-uxbridge-win

But from a longer perspective it looks a lot clearer. It is less dangerous to prognosticate on the basis of three byelections in very different types of seat than it is for a single byelection. In 1997 the Lib Dems gained Somerton and Frome by 130 votes – in 2023 they gained it by 11,008. In 1997 Labour gained the Selby constituency by 3,836 – in 2023, on less favourable boundaries, Labour gained by 4,161. And in 1997 the Conservatives held Uxbridge by 724 votes; in 2023 they held a somewhat more Tory version of the seat by 495 votes.

Seth Brundle

https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1682218248035549192?s=20

Can't really argue with him there!

rock22

An analysis piece in the Guardian seems to suggest that voters are getting better at tactical voting.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jul/21/tactical-voting-in-byelections-spells-bad-news-for-tories

If this were to continue into a general election it would definitely spell disaster for the Tories.

Nody

An open question, when do people think Sunak will go? Obviously after a horrible election I could see him leave (not his fault as much as the Tory policies he has to build on combined with his cowardness to take any action) but does anyone think he'll throw in the towel before the GE? And when he goes can anyone see a candidate that's competent by comparison to Sunak?

PommieBast

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120880426#Comment_120880426

I think he'll hold on. If the Conservatives have what appears to be an interim leader like they had going into 2005 they will do worse.

rock22

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120878794#Comment_120878794

Starmer sems to think that ULEZ was decisive in Labour not winning Uxbridge

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/jul/20/byelection-results-conservatives-labour-lib-dems-somerton-frome-uxbridge-south-ruislip-selby-ainsty-uk-politics-latest-news

"Voter's don't just not turn up for the laugh'

In a voce pop earlier in the week, a women in Somerset constituency said that she was Labour and therefore does not vote. An unfortunate side effect of FPTP system where, if there is no chance, you might not bother. But my point was that the turnout would be higher in a GE and therefore these swings might not easily transfer.

Peregrinus

I think he'll hold on until he loses the election, if only because the entire Tory party can see that changing the leader yet again, regardless of who the new leader might be, will just make the party look like more of a sick joke than it already does.

The last Tory leader to lead the party into two successive general elections was David Cameron in 2010 and 2015. Since then every Tory leader who had led the party to victory in an election has been dumped before the next election. Liz Truss was dumped before she could lead them into even one election, and if Sunak were dumped he would be the second leader in a row to be treated like that.

Seriously, guys, it's not a joke any more. At some point the Tories will realise that changing the leader does nothing to address their problems. The electorate are already well aware of that. Under Johnson's "leadership" the Tories dipped to polling figures which make the next election unwinnable. Changing the leader twice since then has done nothing to improve the situation; why would anyone expect a third change to produce a different result?

It's not the leadership, guys. It's the policies. It's the experience of living under sustained Tory rule. If you want to rebuild, these are the things you have to change.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120880477#Comment_120880477

Obviously I meant voter's who are supporters of parties who are actually contesting seats.

If Tory voter's are not turning up in Tory seats then that is for a valid reason and won't change for a GE unless something in the party changes.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120880426#Comment_120880426

I don't think he is even the problem. Yes, he is little more than a PR spin guy and a middle management type but three of the previous incumbents - Cameron, Johnson and May - were downright corrupt and nasty individuals.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120880802#Comment_120880802

I wouldn't be letting himself or Lizzy Lettuce away with being not nasty.

Behind his middle management persona he is incredibly cold and callous towards the less well off. He may not go around with stories of his Bully boy days or quoting classics but he is a far more zealous believer in the class system than any of them.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120880841#Comment_120880841

It's a fair point. Also, his 'illegal' migration bill and bigging up of Farage does suggest there is a nasty streak in there alright.

Btw, I actually meant to say Truss and not May - I think May was the least pernicious out of the previous four.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120880858#Comment_120880858

It's hard to keep up with the names of the various Tory PMs these days.

rock22

@Strazdas "Btw, I actually meant to say Truss and not May - I think May was the least pernicious out of the previous four."

You might want to read up on her time as Home Secretary. And her role in trying to further a contract with the Saudis to run prisons. I would say you weren't too far wrong the first time

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120881152#Comment_120881152

Her time as home secretary was a pretty grime one (at the time). The "rat out your neighbours" vans* were thanks to her too.

*I have no problem with illegal immigrants being caught but that tends not to be where this stuff leads.

Pete_Cavan

Does anyone else honestly want to take over a Tory leader before the next GE? Why would anyone want to take the wheel before the inevitable car crash?

Sunak will be allowed take the fall and then someone else can take over. It will be a good time to take over as a rebuild will be required and the new leader will have huge scope to implement their own vision (whatever that may be).

The problem is that any (comparatively) reasonable people have already left or will be stepping away at the GE. The senior people willing to stay are doing so because they can see the opportunity ahead to implement their own ideology, even if they have to wait out a full Labour term. Worryingly, most of those ideologies are at least as extreme, if not more so, than what we have seen over the past decade.

Nody

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120881214#Comment_120881214

I'm sure there's a long list of people who'd want to be PM simply because they are deluded enough that they could do a better job swinging to the right (i.e. anti woke, anti EU, anti immigration, "they need us more than them" etc.) and that this would save Tories at the next election / be the pinnacle of their political career before they go on the speaker circuit/boards.

I agree with @Peregrinus that they need to swing to the middle if they want to get back into power but I don't think what's left of the Tories are willing, or capable, to accept that. If anything I expect an even harder right turn and doubling down on what I'd summarize as Trump politics. Part because it fits their own world view, part because they kicked out anyone who's anything but hardcore right wing Brexiteer faithfuls. This is what I think will delay any Tory turn to the middle, they need to lose an election or two badly on the Trump platform before the center can start to re-assert themselves. Heck if anything center Tories today can join Labour and get that politic implemented but that's anathema for them to do...