General British politics discussion thread

Timberrrrrrrr

Another day another shìtshow for the Tories, Figures show they received a further £5 million plus from racist Frank Hester (remember him?)

"Mr Hester allegedly said veteran MP Diane Abbott made him "want to hate all black women" and should "be shot"

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1798603594960371828?t=Fj-I5EvV7wCC-FyCIUxKQw&s=19

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225356#Comment_122225356

Much of the centre has already been purged, but it doesn't follow that those who remain in the party are sufficiently far to the right, and sufficiently lacking in self-respect, to be comfortable with Faragism. If the Tory party can hold its nerve after the coming shredding they will ride out this period and remain the dominant party of the right in the UK, and they can rebuild a more centrist wing and so become a broad church party once again. But if they split or merge with Reform all bets are off.

Shoog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225356#Comment_122225356

The center of the party doesn't represent the Tory party membership so speaking up is political suicide. The moderate Tory party is dead.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225383#Comment_122225383

The problem with this is that there'll be more pressure on them now than in the late nineties/early noughties. They went for Iain Duncan Smith before David Cameron detoxified the party. The next leader is almost certainly going to be from the party's far right. If I were a betting man, I'd say that Suella Braverman is the most likely contender for the leadership.

Whether or not they'll merge with Reform remains to be seen. I can't see the party ceasing to exist in any manner, unfortunately. It's always been very good at reinventing itself when necessary. I think it's much more likely that they'll allow Farage in but it depends heavily on the composition of the parliamentary party next month.

Anyway, it will come as a shock to nobody that Sunak lied.

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1798252445321343456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1798252445321343456%7Ctwgr%5E3c2300ddae99335e7fcd04971c66c44928d28bef%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thepoke.com%2F2024%2F06%2F06%2Fjames-obriens-enormous-mug-viral%2F

Hoop66

It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that Farage has decided to stand in order to speed up the movement of votes from Toy to Reform, thus worrying the Tories and making it more likely that they'll try to do some sort of deal with Reform.

Whether that deal involves Reform candidates stepping down in return for Farage switching to Tories and being made leader, is pure speculation on my part.

What is certain, however, is that Farage has no interest in the people of Clacton-on-Sea. What reporters should be doing is not allowing him to speak about "the boats", rather question him on local issues; like planning, transport & traffic etc. He wouldn't have a clue.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225436#Comment_122225436

The next leader is highly likely to be from the right, I agree. But the immediate next leader, or even the one after that, may not be the one to set the long-term course of the party. Last time round, remember, the Tories cycled through Hague, Smith and Howard before eventually choosing a leader who could win an election — David Cameron.

The truth is that the Tories can't win a general election unless they can secure at least some of the moderate centre vote, and Faragism won't allow them to do that. Lurching further and further to the right will not return them to power and, when they eventually realise that, they will do what they have to do. It's just going to be a lot easier to do if, in the meantime, they haven't succumbed to a hostile takeover by Reform.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225490#Comment_122225490

I think Clacton is only one of a handful of constituencies he'd get elected, but electected he most likely will be

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225466#Comment_122225466

It's too late for a deal with reform. The deadline for withdrawing a candidacy is 4 pm tomorrow, and I don't think there's enough time for the Tories and Reform to agree a deal, and then for Reform to follow through by getting several hundred Reform candidates to withdraw their nomination papers, all by by tomorrow afternoon. Reform, remember, has no functional party organisation or branch structure, and many of their candidates are people with whom they have a very recent and shallow connection.

I think Farage's strategy is to inflict maximal harm on the Tories, by causing them to lose as many seats as possible, regardless of whether many or even any of those seats go to Reform. The hope is that, with the Tories depleted and demoralised, Reform can take advantage of the ensuing confusion to either take the place of the Tories or, more likely, take over the Tories.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225383#Comment_122225383

Yes, the only way the Tories can survive is to move back to the centre. If they move further to the right or are taken over by Reform, it will completely destroy them. Arguably the shift to the right of the last 5-6 years and trying to please the right wing crank / racist OAPs has already done them huge damage.

Water John

A risk for Labour is that, it gets too big a majority. All those bodies hanging around Parliament with nothing to do, and your individual voice irreverent.

wazzzledazzle

I thougt i'd drill down a bit on Clacton to see how the Natives are doing.

Research for the Clacton Place programme shows half all people over 16 in the town are economically inactive and one in five have never had a job of any kind.

The latest government labour data also reveals economic inactivity in Clacton at 46.8% - more than twice the 21.7% UK average.

A Dub in Glasgo

So Clacton is a very deprived area, why on earth do they vote right wing as those chancers will do absolutely nothing for the area?

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225571#Comment_122225571

Education, or lack thereof.

I've just a sent a friend a whattsapp who is in Chelmsford. I'll have a better idea exactly what it's like shortly.

Water John

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225571#Comment_122225571

People will always look to simple solutions to complex problems.

Sam Russell

If the Tories go further right, then the LibDems will become the replacement for the centre voter. Assume that Labour get a whopping majority, then Labour could have a strong left wing, and that would leave the centrist Labour MPs a bit misunderstood. What are they to do? Well, the Social Democrats spun off from Labour, and eventually merged with the Liberals.

Now Tory voters that could never bring themselves to vote with the working class who vote Labour will actually vote LibDems at a pinch. Now they may move over to the LibDems en mass, forever following this GE.

The Liberals got 4 seats in 1945 GE - arrived at the HOC in a taxi. Hopefully, the Tories can arrive at the HOC in a Range Rover - a least in the next GE after this one, whenever that will be.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225571#Comment_122225571

Because these are desperate people, conned into thinking that all their problems are the fault of "woke", lefties or all the brown people "invading" the country (even though more of than than not these areas have almost zero inward migration).

It also helps that if you cripple people's futures with a lack of access to education, jobs, security and health, they're much easier to mould and shove in a preferred direction - away from critical thinking towards their economic oppressors. Whether they'll ever be pushed to hit the "Eat the Rich" territory remains debatable.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225524#Comment_122225524

The problem is that the FPTP electoral system virtually guarantees that there will be two dominant parties, one in government and one as a government in waiting that will inevitably come to power at some point. The Tory party may be destroyed in the sense of no longer being a functional political party or having a coherent ideology and yet it could still be entrenched as the second party, waiting to come to power. It would be worrying it was, in reality, a Reform-dominated or Reform-controlled political party.

The textbook example that everybody keeps citing in this context is Canada. Although it changed its name several times along the way, the right-of-centre Progressive Conservative Party was one of the two dominant Canadian parties from 1867 to 1993. However in the early 90s the party became deeply unpopular, and conservative voters looked for other options. In the 1993 election the parties was decimated — the left-of-centre Liberals won 177 seats (out of 295) while the right-wing vote split in multiple directions. The PCP was reduced from 156 seats to 2; to their great surprise the separatist Bloc Québécois found themselves the second-largest party and official opposition with 65 seats. This would be like the SNP becoming the official opposition in Westminster.

The big winner on the right was the brand-new Reform Party of Canada. They actually got only a modestly larger share of the national vote than the PCP (18.7% as opposed to 16.0%) but because their vote was regionally concentrated this delivered them a truckload of seats - 54 in all, as opposed to the PCP's 2. Reform was well to the right of the PCP, favouring deep spending cuts, tax reductions, restrictions on immigration, and reform of Canada's political institutions, and they were noted for, em, definitely not progressive positions on immigration, LGBT issues, Québec, etc. More because of their seat share than their vote share they rapidly came to be seen as the characteristic party of the right. In the 1997 election, rebranded as "Alliance" in an attempt to shake off their regional roots and develop a national appeal, they won 60 seats and became the official opposition. The PCP rose from 2 to 20 seats, but they fell back again to 12 in the 2003 election. After that election it was clear the PCP's time in the sun was not going to return, and a few months later the PCP and Alliance merged to form the Conservative Party of Canada.

From its inception the CPC was, and still is, the dominant party of the right in Canada, and it holds the place that the PCP held until 1993. But it's well to the right of where the PCP used to be; its initial leadership, and most of its policy positions, came from Alliance, and the party has never really moved in a centrist direction.

Tl;dr: the splintering of the PCP lead to 13 years of government by the left-of-centre Liberals, but also to the emergence of a unified party on the right that was well to the right of where the PCP had been; that party eventually came to power in 2006. A lot of people think that Farage is hoping that events will unfold in a similar way in the UK; the splitting of the right wing vote opens up space for the emergence of a new dominant party of the right that may or may not be the Tory party or its successor, organisationally speaking, but will in any event be a party in which Farage and his values are dominant. And, he reckons, FPTP will inevitably bring them to power at some point.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225571#Comment_122225571

These are the very people who will blame immigrants for all their problems - despite Clacton being around 95% English and white according to official stats.

There were some hilarious vox pops from Clacton yesterday of people complaining they are 'surrounded by immigrants', with not even a single person of colour in the background during the clips.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225067#Comment_122225067

My one take from having voted in both UK and Irish elections is at least in ours the elected tend to be a fair reflection of the self interested electorate, Healy Rae's etc...

There is a genuine democratic disconnect in the UK with all the safe seats patronage, while we have fiercely competitive constituency battles where independents have as good a chance as party candidates.

At some stage that democratic deficit in the UK could implode into a geopolitical concern for everyone else in Europe.

breezy1985

Clacton is very similar to Thanet just across the bay. Had some friends from Margate back when Farage last ran and there was I am told a fair backlash to Farage parachuting in as it is terrible for the image of your town to now be known as "the place so racist Farage can be elected there".

I imagine it will be different this time and he will actually get elected.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225816#Comment_122225816

Well. of course, they are surrounded by immigrants. For example, members of the cabinet - Rishi Sunak, Braverman, Cleverly, Badenoch, Coutinho.

Well, they may not be immigrants, but none would be welcome in Clacton.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225941#Comment_122225941

When I think back to 2011, I can remember people in the shop I was working in at the time actually discussing individual candidates. Here, you vote red or blue and that's the height of it.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225816#Comment_122225816

It's the result of decades of gaslighting and a dominant position at the top of the Anglosphere negating any need to read or learn about other countries beyond EasyJet flights to Benidorm. I know a woman who voted for Brexit because she was fed up of seeing Indians in London hospitals.

The thing with democracy is that you always get the government you deserve. Always.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122225949#Comment_122225949

I can imagine him getting elected as he can blame the lack of brexit wins on the Tories.

If repeated elsewhere this could really undercut the tory self belief that they only have to wait a couple of election cycles before they're back in.

Tom Mann Centuria

https://twitter.com/novaramedia/status/1798369192426492109?t=zMvCASaXVeWCszutODnXSQ&s=19

She might well be in the minority but it's lovely to hear a different opinion of Farage from someone who lives in Clacton.

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122226128#Comment_122226128

She appears to be what is sadly a rarity these days - A well informed voter making decisions based on evidence and facts.

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122196572#Comment_122196572

Labour lead at 27pts
Westminster voting intention

LAB: 45% (-1)
CON: 18% (-3)
REF: 18% (+3)
LDEM: 8% (-)
GRN: 6% (-)

via @YouGov, 03 - 04 Jun
OLD METHODOLOGY

You still think Reform will have no effect on the tories?

You're very much on your own with that one.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122226290#Comment_122226290

*Poll conducted by the residents of Clacton on sea

Obviously in jest, but no doubt a "Farage Bounce" for them

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122226290#Comment_122226290

Am I?

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1798676994252759332

Peter Flynt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122226306#Comment_122226306

Yes you are.

Just about every serious UK political commentator and poll is predicting seats for Reform with tories losing votes disproportionately v Labour as more former tory voters vote Reform than former Labour voters.

You seem to think that the tories will be unaffected as Reform won't win any seats. Even if they win none they will still cause a greater transfer/loss of votes to the tories v labour.

This will lead to a further loss in seats for the tories making a bad situation even worse.

Exactly as I stated last week.

yagan

Going by that poll posted above it feels like the Torys and Reform are fighting for voters who'd for brexit again, despite the lack of wins.

The best Labour policy is not reopening brexit. Anyone who voted for brexit but regrets iit can vote away both the Tory's and Farage by voting labour or libdem.