General British politics discussion thread

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265675#Comment_122265675

I really didn't understand the English until I lived there for a few years. A radicalised English nationalism is not good geopolitically.

I will not be surprised if we end up with an influx of returning Irish had would previously had felt settled in Britain.

volchitsa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265622#Comment_122265622

Yes, this is my understanding of what happened too. Cameron never thought he would lose the referendum - and remember that Johnson famously had two opinion pieces written, one for remaining in the EU and one against, and only went with "Leave" because it marked him out from the rest of the Tories. He didn't expect to win: he expected to find himself rather like Farage is now, on the outside pissing into the tent and making life impossible for everyone inside, and he'd have made a name for himself from that.

He was like a rabbit in the headlights when his "side" actually won.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265656#Comment_122265656

Which Brian Cox ?

I have good time for both.

A Dub in Glasgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265752#Comment_122265752

The Scottish actor one

political analyst

https://www.thetimes.com/magazines/the-sunday-times-magazine/article/generation-x-the-middle-aged-voters-politics-forgot-3jcsp083w

The article was written by Professor Bobby Duffy of King's College London.

Here's the gist of it:

The Tories will be annihilated on 4 July because they have neglected Generation X, who were born from 1966 to 1979. The Tories are obsessed with appeasing the baby boomers, who were born from 1945 to 1965, the millennials, who were born from 1980 to 1986 and Generation Z, who were born from 1997 to 2012.

Baby boomers benefitted from the long-run of post-WW2 economic growth and are most likely to regard immigration as a problem and be pre-occupied with 'culture war' issues.

Millennials have a lot less money than Gen X but make up for it with an extraordinary cultural profile, i.e. social media. Millennial and Gen Z priorities reflect their difficult economic circumstances, i.e. housing, cost of living.

In 2019 just 1 in 5 young people voted Tory, 3 in 5 voted Labour and the older vote was a near perfect mirror opposite. Gen X were ignored because they more or less matched the natural average.

My view:

From 5 July, Labour's place in government of the UK is essentially guaranteed for a decade at the very least. By the end of that decade, many baby boomers will be dead or too ill to care about politics. Therefore, the Tories will have to change tack and the Reform party will cease to exist.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265848#Comment_122265848

That sounds like utter bollox. Everyone has been screwed except the baby boomers.

Lah de da I have "cultural profile". Can't wait to pay my landlord with some of that.

I'm gonna hazard a guess that the millennials Bobby Duffy knows are of the well off trust fund variety.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265848#Comment_122265848

 The Tories are obsessed with appeasing the baby boomers, who were born from 1945 to 1965, the millennials, who were born from 1980 to 1986 and Generation Z, who were born from 1997 to 2012.

Well, that analysis is utterly dreadful and not worth reading. Anyone who thinks the Tories are trying to appease Gen Z is not remotely worth listening to.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265848#Comment_122265848

The idea the Tories have or are indulging Gen Z is so laughable as to not even have an ounce of credibility. What absolute and utter piffle and in stark contrast to observable reality.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265864#Comment_122265864

4% of 18-24 year olds are intending to vote Tory so it seems they don't agree with Mr. Duffy.

Shoog

The only pertinent snippet of that analysis is that the boomers, and their capture of British politics, is why the country is in the utter mess it is in now. When they die off there might be a chance for a long term recovery, but I have my doubts about that.

yagan

The trust fund kids would be a thin sliver at best and are more likely to be oblivious to tory party patronage.

You're more likely to find them amongst the extinction rebellion ranks.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265474#Comment_122265474

A major problem was that Cameron was a hardcore Europhobe who mostly strongly disliked the EU. It was no coincidence that Brexit happened on his watch - Sir Ivan Rogers says he (Cameron) would have been happy for the UK to become a 'part time' member of the union, he had no love for it whatsoever.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266124#Comment_122266124

Which goes back to the UK's original reason for joining, needing a substitute for lost empire.

Their stance at the conference at Messina was merely observer and a dismissive one at that.

The Suez crisis not long after brought home the reality that empire was expensive and joining the trade bloc on their doorstep was the only way to maintain the british standard of living.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266230#Comment_122266230

I think the balance of trade and payments had a bigger call for joining the EU.

Britain was totally bust following WW II and their industry needed investment which it did not get.

The Japanese were also bust in 1945, but decided to sort themselves out. In 1950, made in Japan meant rubbish goods. By 1980, it meant superior goods, like cameras, and such. They got quality control experts in from USA who got their products way above or equal to the best.

The car industry in Britain was an example of the rest of British industry. Poor quality was considered ok. Poor quality in design, manufacture, and reliability. Even rust was built in deliberately so as to shorten the life of the car.

Shoog

One fundamental issue for Britain as a nation is that they pick their leaders from a class that hates industry. It circulates leaders in and out of the banking and investment industry - but never really gives industry the support it deserves. It trained it's leaders to think about managing flows of resources around the Empire, creaming off profits by placing itself in the middle of all trades.

None of this works in a world without empire and a commonwealth who started to see it for what it really was.

It fundamentally lost touch with it's roll in the world and tried to turn back the clock.

Tom Mann Centuria

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266344#Comment_122266344

Planned obsolescence before it was cool. Britain lead, the world follow.

breezy1985

Working hard is frowned upon in the upper classes it pulls so many of its leaders from.

Itssoeasy

I know I’m asking a lot from the current Conservative Party, but do we think any of them will gave a speech like John major gave in 1997, which all these years later is even more gracious now then it probably was at the time.

Leroy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266590#Comment_122266590

Who would do it? Braverman? JRM? Sunak gave a speech after Galloway won a democratic vote to bemoan the spreading of anti UK ideologies.

They have also run this campaign on the fear of Labour winning so hard to then simply congratulation them and wish them well.

If the polls are anyway close to being correct, the Tories have weeks of blaming to go through

Strazdas

One aspect that is intriguing is what the Conservative wipe out will mean for the Tory press. Can they even survive their party of choice being out of power for perhaps a decade and with only a small number of seats?

Even after 1997, the Tories were still the main opposition and with the prospect that they could well return to government at some point and in good shape.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266724#Comment_122266724

Reform press……

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266590#Comment_122266590

John Major made his speech from a (real) soapbox. He spoke from the heart. Do any of current Tories have a heart or even a (real) soapbox?

He has proved a statesman since he stopped being PM. His biggest failing is his liking for Curry.

Itssoeasy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266879#Comment_122266879

No they don’t. Rishi Sunak seems incapable of talking even remotely off the cuff. I can see the conservatives being in complete denial for days, if not weeks after the election drubbing they will get.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266724#Comment_122266724

That press were happy enough to suck up to Blair so as long as they have a someway compliant Labour party who dont threaten their money then 5-10 years of Labour can be tolerated.

Shoog

The worst part of all this is I really don't think the British public remotely understands why the Tories took them to this place - and so they will rise again to be the preferred party of the country.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266901#Comment_122266901

Hopefully, they will be in denial for years, if not decades.

The Liberals lost the 1945 election and got 4 seats, and arrived in Westminster in a taxi. They went from a party of Gov to a tiny party that eventually amalgamated with the Social democrats (a breakaway group from Labour - the gang of four) to form the LibDems.

I hope the entire rump Tory contingent arrive in Westminster after the GE in a Range Rover.

Maybe they might merge with the UKip/Brexit Party/Reform Party or whatever it might be by then.

political analyst

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266920#Comment_122266920

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122266929#Comment_122266929

If the Tories make a comeback more than a decade into the future then, surely, they'll be a more centrist party, won't they? After all, they know that the baby doomers will, like the rest of us, eventually die, thus making old-school right-wing politics extinct, don't they?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122267817#Comment_122267817

If they return after a decade as a centrist party, will they still be Tories? Will they still have an Eton toff leading them?

They have already had a lettuce and an Indian leading them are heading for oblivion. Will the new party be a Tory tribute party?

political analyst

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122265450#Comment_122265450

Given that Cameron acceded in 2012 to Salmond's demand for a Scottish indy ref, is it any surprise that he made the EU referendum promise to appease the Euroskeptics in his own party?! A prime minister with a bit more gumption would've said no to the SNP and the Euroskeptics.

political analyst

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122267854#Comment_122267854

Was Theresa May a genuine Tory?! If she was, then she wouldn't have been in favour of gender self-ID. She even described herself as woke!