General British politics discussion thread

Panthro

But where will JRM have a little nap for himself if he's booted out of Westminster?! Good riddance.

Strazdas

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333498#Comment_122333498

A large number of Daily Mail readers are attacking the Tories in the comments sections every day and saying they will vote for Reform instead. Hard to see where the Tories will pick up votes outside the hardcore 'blue' OAPs in the shires - they've largely lost most of the other demographics.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333959#Comment_122333959

I wouldn't count the cultural toilet that is the Daily Mail's website as being worth anything.

The Tories will win big with the wealthy as normal. Their problem is that they've spent a decade abusing everyone else and now there's no EU or Labour government to blame for it.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333936#Comment_122333936

Nanny will tuck him in nice and tight now

drury..

I still haven't figured out what farage is always laughing about

Its never anything funny it's like he has a form of tourettes or something

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122333892#Comment_122333892

The schadenfreude I might feel over the idea of Mogg's iminant loss of MP seat is somewhat offset by the knowledge the man won't starve or struggle from a sudden lack of income. The foundational grotesquery of the Tories' entire 14 year reign is that many of the architects of the UK's slump into destitution will remain wealthy people, isolated from privation. Sunak's wealth alone could lift hundreds of thousands out of poverty in the UK; in real terms the man is not going to receive any punishment after the 4th July passes.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334016#Comment_122334016

The devil looks after his own and nowhere more thorughly than in Westminster.

A reminder that Rees-Mogg wants to force rape victims to raise their attacker's child while also profiting from abortion pills.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334016#Comment_122334016

No real punishment but they will at least lose.

These nanny raised posh boys really take being told "no" to heart. So just the sight of the country telling them they can't do whatever they want will at least be something.

Shelga

I still think the predicted annihilation of the Tories might be too good to be true. Anyone think there is any chance at all of a hung parliament? Paddy Power currently has odds of 20/1 on it.

British people seem to love voting for a party that has made them demonstrably poorer. Johnson got an 80 seat majority in 2019 despite the country already being in dire straits then. Sorry to go all Hillary Clinton “basket of deplorables” but if they were stupid enough to believe the lies about Brexit, and then still stupid enough to believe “Get Brexit Done”, you’ll forgive my worry.

Although, Corbyn was deeply unpopular. And I can’t think of anyone who likes Sunak at all. I just won’t relax until the exit polls show a solid majority for Labour.

tanko

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334027#Comment_122334027

A reminder that Sir Keir Starmer supports starving and blowing to pieces tens of thousands of Palestinian children, hes no better than the worst of the Tories. The devil looks after his own indeed.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334164#Comment_122334164

Prove it.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334141#Comment_122334141

No chance of a hung parliament, Labour will get an outright majority without a doubt

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334141#Comment_122334141

None whatsoever.

A lot of people here buy into the toxic trope that the Conservatives are good for the economy. That trope has been debunked once again by the fact that the Conservatives are abysmal for those without capital.

FWIW, over half of voters in 2019 voted for pro-Remain parties.

Shelga

Ok I take back what I said, somewhat. After all, only 43.6% of people voted for the Tories in 2019, and FPTP rewarded that with 56% of the seats. Still, just under 14m people voted for the party of Boris Johnson… hard to feel any sympathy for their plight now.

Turnout last time was 67.3%, which sounds quite high to me. Let’s hope it’s similar this time.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334200#Comment_122334200

Labour were no longer a pro-remain party by 2019 though (albeit the name doesn't make much sense by that juncture).

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334253#Comment_122334253

They were. They were offering a referendum despite the leadership.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334274#Comment_122334274

They were offering a referendum on the deal, but not on cancelling or reversing brexit as far as I remember it.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334282#Comment_122334282

It was a referendum with remain as an option. Anything else would have been pointless.

Sam Russell

So it looks like - according to the polls, with Labour on 41% of the vote - that it will be another five years since the largest party that forms a Gov in the UK will have got over 50% of the popular vote. Most Gov have been formed by parties that have got between 40% and 45% of the popular vote.

The last time was in 1932.

Why do the British population accept this undemocratic system of selecting a government?

Brussels Sprout

I know that the Exit Poll released at 10pm tomorrow night comes with a total seat number prediction. Does that mean though that it'll have predictions on a constituency level basis or is that some kind of figure that's generated from total numbers.

What I'm really getting at is - At 10pm will we know which high profile Tory ministers are likely to lose their seats?

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334354#Comment_122334354

I think that 10 pm will be swingometer type prediction, but some exit polls will be looking at high profile Tories to predict their demise.

Great TV, of course.

ArmaniJeanss

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334354#Comment_122334354

The exit poll will only have a direct link to the result of a constituency if a polling station chosen for the exit poll is within that constituency. Otherwise it is still just guess-work based on the swing.

To clarify the exit poll. 130 polling stations are used and roughly 20,000 voters are canvassed. They will use the same polling stations as in previous elections which is the crucial part. They aren't particularly interested in whether 30% or 40% vote for say Labour. The important value is the increase (or decrease !!) compared to previous elections. They'll apply this figure to their seat formulae to come up with an overall estimate.

breezy1985

Im very happy with our system and wouldn't change it but you would miss these whirlwind election nights during Irish elections.

Safest prediction of the night is I will be useless in work on Friday from lack of sleep.

wazzzledazzle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334422#Comment_122334422

The drama of it all.

I'll try avoid the dramtics of your Beth Rigby's and Laura K's and stick with C4.

Why Coburn or Rayworth didn't get the BBC gig for it is beyond me.

edit

I remember reading this reddit thread a while back about Laura K. I always thought she was a huge Boris fanboy. Previous to that i thought she was ok. But, i have a sneaking suspicion that she's a right winger

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/194wb9h/is_laura_kuenssberg_still_a_tory/

Brussels Sprout

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334422#Comment_122334422

Ok that makes a lot of sense. On that basis so they'll likely have a few of the constituencies where some major Tories are based but we'll have to wait for the counting to see most of them for sure.

I'm sure there are all sorts of data nerds who will have models ready to go that will pump in the national figures and will have decent predictions for who is going to lose their seats with a high degree of precision.

Tomorrow night's going to be fun!

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334448#Comment_122334448

Sit back and celebrate it all with a themed platter.

Spanish and Italian meats with Dutch, French and Irish cheese paired with a Belgian lambic beer 😁

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334164#Comment_122334164

Park the histrionics and at least show evidence to this. Not sure why you think pearl clutching purity tests over Israel have any relevance as an item in the UK election. Easy to trot out outraged aphorisms but to use another: all elections are local; rightly or wrongly, what is happening to Palestinian has and will not figure in the election's campaign talking points.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334027#Comment_122334027

Oh I never forget: the socially regressive are nothing if not raging hypocrites to a man. And they're usually men.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334095#Comment_122334095

Undoubtedly, but true justice would be these charlatans see damage to their own personal wealth in line with the damage done across the kingdom; the wealth gap never felt so large than when one sees Sunak's personal wealth.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334166#Comment_122334166

I've lately cooled on Pie's views to an extent, but he has a way of really highlighting just how much of an antagonistic force the Tories are to the well-being of the UK's subjects.

VinLieger

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334837#Comment_122334837

Yeah i don't bother with him much either, his schtick got old for me a while back but it was like I said originally a good synopsis of the last 14 years

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122334880#Comment_122334880

The Guardian have a good two parter on their Today in Focus that covers the period.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2024/jun/28/the-14-years-that-broke-britain-part-1-podcast