'Shock Poll' Sinn Fein now on 35%

hurler32

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Let's start with their history, what they stand for, and their ultimate aims.

I'm now in my 50s, so as I was growing up there was no Sinn Fein, just the IRA and the daily drip drip feed of bodies building up, mostly in the North, while simultaneously there was the drip drip feed of bank robberies & post office heists down here, with the odd disappearance thrown in for good measure, knee capping was another Provo invention that let us know as to who & what kind of animals we were dealing with. Nasty stuff alright, so nasty in fact that as the New Sinn Fein slowly emerged up North, the crimes carried on by Sinn Fein's alter ego (namely the PIRA), and with interchangable personell one never really knew who was pulling the strings in Sinn Fein Vs who was pulling the IRAs strings?
Maybe he same person? Maybe even the head of Sinn Fein Mr Gerry Adams?

With the Ballot box in one hand with a bomb in a rucksack and a machine slung around the shoulder, the Republicans had it any which way they wanted Ballot Box & Armalite.....
Untill the Good Friday Agreement came along and spoiled their blood stained party, whereby going forward they were only permitted to follow exclusively peaceful means....

...and here's my point, all those atrocities, all those bombs, all those shootings are (were) condemned by most people in this state as Terrorism, and as such (Sinn Fein by association) were kept at arms length with the proverbial 'dirty stick' because you see, Sinn Fein would always fail to condemn each & every atrocity, and even now in 2020, Sinn Fein will legitimise the "Armed Struggle" as something to be proud of, something to celebrate "Up the RA" followed by Tiocfaidh ár lá with the ultimate aim of taking over this State & demanding a "United Ireland" ASAP irrespective of the consequences.

I haven't even mentioned the SF economic shortcomings which I can debate another time, but for now, with all of the above taken on board,

WHY WOULD YOU VOTE SINN FEIN?

There should never have been a border on the island , it was always going to lead to a war up north .
Why should the nationalists of the 6 counties lie down to British rule just because you and your family are ok ?
Many of us if we happened to live in Tyrone or Armagh we would have ended up in the IRA the same way our people did when the British were in Dublin or cork one time . This island will never be fully at peace whilst it’s divided . Only selfish I’m alright jacks don’t get that .

dxhound2005

Deleted User wrote: »

But the atrocities a generation ago, let's be a slave to the past and not move on, etc. How dare you exercise your democratic right and vote differently than me. It's a disgrace Joe.

Says 75% of the electorate, who do not think that getting 25% is winning the election.

Hamsterchops

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

No one owes you an explanation as to why they voted in a certain way.
The poll in today's Times must really sicken you. Go for a walk you'll feel better.

Of course is sickens me, but it also puzzles me.

Fann Linn

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Says 75% of the electorate, who do not think that getting 25% is winning the election.

And..

Plumbthedepths

dxhound2005 wrote: »

The worst thing is that it brought out the conspiracy theorist, convinced that everyone is against SF. That and their fanatical supporters spouting nonsense on the internet.

Ah here spouting nonsense is not confined to SF supporters. A read over any of the multiple SF threads since the election will confirm. There's one poster here who claimed SF will start a civil war if in government.

Suckit

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Wow that's deep.

Now, armed with the knowledge that I've just furnished you with, can you explain why you would support & vote for Sinn Fein in 2020.

The knowledge that you brought.... was that in your previous post? It read like rant and opinion. The bit at the end about economic shortcomings... Well, pretty sure FF and FG aren't ones that can point fingers there.


Aaannnnnndd... The state broadcaster running headlines
What next for Mary Lou and the Barbarians?

dxhound2005

Suckit wrote: »

The knowledge that you brought.... was that in your previous post? It read like rant and opinion. The bit at the end about economic shortcomings... Well, pretty sure FF and FG aren't ones that can point fingers there.


Aaannnnnndd... The state broadcaster running headlines
What next for Mary Lou and the Barbarians?

Don't blame Tommy. It's Mary Lou's own words.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/barbarians-are-through-the-gates-mary-lou-addresses-packed-liberty-hall-for-sinn-fein-rally-38991155.html

Achasanai

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

So mary Lou is lying when she's saying she's trying to form a government without FF and FG as the numbers aren't there??

Once again thanks for clearing that up.

She is lying to the electorate.

I get that you have an agenda on this, but if SF are still trying to form a left government, then they're not lying, even if a left government without FFG is impossible (it may be a pointless search or just for show, which it probably is, but not necessarily lying). You are also forgetting about a minority government, though, but that wouldn't suit your narrative.



Of all the things that SF have said or done in the past, that this is the thing people are focusing on is bemusing.

Muahahaha

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

It’s time to go back to the people and have another election. People want change. Let them vote for that change.

I think the one thing this latest opinion poll gives us is a certainty that there wont be another election. The last thing FFG will want now is to go up against Mary Lou again in a fresh election because they now know that SF would gain even more seats than they did in the first one.

Another election for FFG would be an absolute disaster. It is very clear now that Mary Lou is a formidable campaigner and debater and more importantly than everything -she has a very likeable charisma and the common touch that is so vital in electoral politics. She goes into old folks homes and everyone there wants to shake her hand, on her walkabouts people in the streets are genuinely pleased to meet her. She makes a idiot of herself dancing the macarena and people laugh along with her. She holds meetings where the crowds are so big people cant get in the door. These are all the signs of a widely popular leader and her personal approval rating has now tipped over 50% for the first time ever.

Now compare that with the style of campaigning of Michael Martin and Leo Varadkar. Both of them are awkward and wooden and they look scared when out walking the streets, frightened that some regular joe soap is going to confront them while the cameras are rolling. Both of them were roundly beaten in the debates where Mary Lous performances gave SF this surge in the first place. If either FF or FG held public meetings right now I've no doubt they would be packed to the rafters- full of their own voters angrily calling for their heads.

As I said in the OP this poll reveals that there was a cohort of the electorate who did not vote for SF but would do so now if given another opportunity. Mary Lou has all the momentum now and theres a real danger for FF FG now that another election would not just see her gather the 35% reported in this poll but once campaigning is underway even go beyond it up to 40 or 45%. We are in a volatile period of Irish politics where all bets are off and people who would never have voted SF before want to do so in big numbers. Momentum is a very powerful thing in electoral politics and it is all with Mary Lou right now.

All of this means FF-FG are now going to have to scramble into government together as quickly as possible. Their minds will have been made up for them by this poll, they simply have no choice but to go and sell this to their party members as the alternative of a second election is too stark and frightening for them. The Greens now hold the balance of power and they will go in with them as that lot believe the planet is going to blow up and they need to tax us quick smart to stop it happening. So its now full steam ahead for a FF FG Green government with SF growing even stronger on the opposition benches.

dxhound2005

Muahahaha wrote: »

I think the one thing this latest opinion poll gives us is a certainty that there wont be another election. The last thing FFG will want now is to go up against Mary Lou again in a fresh election because they now know that they would even more seats than they did in the first one.

The crucial question is how many seats. And how many would be at the expense of other Left TD's who are only there because SF did not run more candidates.

SF will only want another election, if it is certain to give them the numbers to form a government without FF. The last thing they would want is to come back with something like 50 seats, but fail to form a government. The third outing would then see them likely slip back in a major way.

Suckit

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Don't blame Tommy. It's Mary Lou's own words.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/barbarians-are-through-the-gates-mary-lou-addresses-packed-liberty-hall-for-sinn-fein-rally-38991155.html

Oh yep, aware of that. That's partly what made it funny.
Another part was where he says FF and SF are pretty much the same.

Suckit

dxhound2005 wrote: »

The crucial question is how many seats. And how many would be at the expense of other Left TD's who are only there because SF did not run more candidates.

SF will only want another election, if it is certain to give them the numbers to form a government without FF. The last thing they would want is to come back with something like 50 seats, but fail to form a government. The third outing would then see them likely slip back in a major way.

I don't believe SF would be the only party running extra candidates.

Some of the others may also run extra candidates and gain extra seats.

hatrickpatrick

nigeldaniel wrote: »

I do not trust polls myself. They can be manipulated by clever clogs to one end or another with the intention of sucking in undecided voters.

I know I probably over-quote Yes Minister and The Thick Of It as genuinely realistic portrayals of the political world, but as someone who has never actually been approached by anyone doing an opinion poll, I've always wondered if this kind of thing is an accurate representation of how they operate:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA

dxhound2005

Suckit wrote: »

Oh yep, aware of that. That's partly what made it funny.
Another part was where he says FF and SF are pretty much the same.

We're fond of our history. After the demise of the Parliamentary Party in 1918, there was just Sinn Fein. From whence came FG and FF. The SF rump after 1932 went in various directions, eventually getting to the Provos. Who have come full circle into parliamentary politics. Tommy is right on the money.

Shefwedfan

Muahahaha wrote: »

I think the one thing this latest opinion poll gives us is a certainty that there wont be another election. The last thing FFG will want now is to go up against Mary Lou again in a fresh election because they now know that SF would gain even more seats than they did in the first one.

Another election for FFG would be an absolute disaster. It is very clear now that Mary Lou is a formidable campaigner and debater and more importantly than everything -she has a very likeable charisma and the common touch that is so vital in electoral politics. She goes into old folks homes and everyone there wants to shake her hand, on her walkabouts people in the streets are genuinely pleased to meet her. She makes a idiot of herself dancing the macarena and people laugh along with her. She holds meetings where the crowds are so big people cant get in the door. These are all the signs of a widely popular leader and her personal approval rating has now tipped over 50% for the first time ever.

Now compare that with the style of campaigning of Michael Martin and Leo Varadkar. Both of them are awkward and wooden and they look scared when out walking the streets, frightened that some regular joe soap is going to confront them while the cameras are rolling. Both of them were roundly beaten in the debates where Mary Lous performances gave SF this surge in the first place. If either FF or FG held public meetings right now I've no doubt they would be packed to the rafters- full of their own voters angrily calling for their heads.

and then people ask the question "why was Trump voted in".



Are you actually for real? you are voting in someone because they are kissing some babies heads? nothing to do with her agenda or what she will do for you as a voter?

This is the problem with the modern World, my vote counts the exact same as someone who thinks the election is a version of X-Factor.


Mary Lou is not a good debater, she shouts and roars and nobody pays attention. Watch any of her discussions in the dail, not only FF/FG are turned off but the entire Dail. She loses her point fairly quickly and then resorts to shouting.


Also anyone tries to respond and she agains responds by shouting.

hatrickpatrick

dxhound2005 wrote: »

It's the 50 TD's who don't belong to SF, FF or FG that are preventing it.

As much as I'm hoping for a left wing government without FFG, I do remember feeling that when Brendan Howlin announced Labour's intention to stay out of government formation talks altogether and remain in opposition for this Dáil session, that may have been the decisive nail in the coffin for such aspirations. Unless there's a realistic scenario in which Labour would vote for Mary Lou as Taoiseach and support a minority government on an issue-by-issue basis.

There's one other possibility though - it's possible, although personally I find it extremely unlikely, that either FF or FG, balking at the idea of either another election or going into power with their supposed nemeses and proving that there really isn't this massive ideological gulf between the two parties that they both like to play up for the sake of playing the electoral see-saw game, might actually support Mary Lou for Taoiseach and let her form a minority government without actually being part of it, subsequently being strategic in blocking policies in order to totally undermine that government and tell the people in five years (or less, depending on how things go) "see, SF were all talk and they didn't get anything done!"

They'd have to rely on voters not to pay attention to which parties and TDs blocked which specific motions and pieces of legislation in the Dáil, obviously. As a political junkie I honestly can't say if your average non-obsessed voter pays that much attention to what's happening inside the Oireachtas, or just to the end result of what happens in there - and whether, in that scenario, a gridlocked SF government could realistically justify getting fairly little legislation passed by saying "Well, FF or FG (whichever supports MLMD for Taoiseach) blocked every bill we tried to pass, if we can get more seats this time that won't be as big an issue". I just couldn't tell you if that would be effective, or if your average voter who doesn't record every bit of political punidtry on the telly and spend hours reading and debating the news would care that much about the reasons behind such gridlock as opposed to just saying "sure look, we gave you a chance and ye didn't deliver".

RandomName2

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Ah here spouting nonsense is not confined to SF supporters. A read over any of the multiple SF threads since the election will confirm. There's one poster here who claimed SF will start a civil war if in government.

SF's main raison d'etre is not housing or the HSE, it's a united Ireland. Always has been. If they get that there is bound to be huge civil strife with the unionist communities.

The IRA is not worth forgetting about (though all the SF fanboys want to do so) but nether are the loyalist terrorists either.

Being concerned about the prospect of violence is reasonable. People said that was a reasonable thing when talking about Brexit. If it's reasonable when talking about Brexit, then it's reasonable when talking about SF being at the helm of two separate governments.

hatrickpatrick

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Mary Lou is not a good debater, she shouts and roars and nobody pays attention. Watch any of her discussions in the dail, not only FF/FG are turned off but the entire Dail. She loses her point fairly quickly and then resorts to shouting.

Just one guy's opinion but IMO Mary Lou has been one of the better debaters in recent years, she tends to stick with the policy issue at hand instead of trying to pivot or use attack as a form of defense. I can't see her, for instance, practising the Enda Kenny School of Answering Questions which our last two Taoisigh have engaged in, where they make some snide comment during leader's questions and rarely address whatever is actually being put to them.

I'm not actually saying she's a great debater, I have my issues with her debating style just as with any public speaker really, there are always faults you can point out. What I am saying though, is that she's certainly far, far better in comparison to the kind of sh!te we've had from FG for the last ten years. Micheal Martin actually isn't a bad debater himself, I just feel that he personally, and his party more generally, have too much baggage in too many areas to really be taken seriously, and Martin knows this on some level as his debating style tends to be very restrained and he avoids pointing out problems with FG policy which he knows are actually policies they co-opted from Bertie Ahern era FF.

Fann Linn

RandomName2 wrote: »

SF's main raison d'etre is not housing or the HSE, it's a united Ireland. Always has been. If they get that there is bound to be huge civil strife with the unionist communities.

The IRA is not worth forgetting about (though all the SF fanboys want to do so) but nether are the loyalist terrorists either.

Being concerned about the prospect of violence is reasonable. People said that was a reasonable thing when talking about Brexit. If it's reasonable when talking about Brexit, then it's reasonable when talking about SF being at the helm of two separate governments.

Demographics in the North and a border poll as per Good Friday Agreement will decide a United Ireland.
Not Sinn Fein

J_1980

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

As much as I'm hoping for a left wing government without FFG, I do remember feeling that when Brendan Howlin announced Labour's intention to stay out of government formation talks altogether and remain in opposition for this Dáil session, that may have been the decisive nail in the coffin for such aspirations. Unless there's a realistic scenario in which Labour would vote for Mary Lou as Taoiseach and support a minority government on an issue-by-issue basis.

There's one other possibility though - it's possible, although personally I find it extremely unlikely, that either FF or FG, balking at the idea of either another election or going into power with their supposed nemeses and proving that there really isn't this massive ideological gulf between the two parties that they both like to play up for the sake of playing the electoral see-saw game, might actually support Mary Lou for Taoiseach and let her form a minority government without actually being part of it, subsequently being strategic in blocking policies in order to totally undermine that government and tell the people in five years (or less, depending on how things go) "see, SF were all talk and they didn't get anything done!"

They'd have to rely on voters not to pay attention to which parties and TDs blocked which specific motions and pieces of legislation in the Dáil, obviously. As a political junkie I honestly can't say if your average non-obsessed voter pays that much attention to what's happening inside the Oireachtas, or just to the end result of what happens in there - and whether, in that scenario, a gridlocked SF government could realistically justify getting fairly little legislation passed by saying "Well, FF or FG (whichever supports MLMD for Taoiseach) blocked every bill we tried to pass, if we can get more seats this time that won't be as big an issue". I just couldn't tell you if that would be effective, or if your average voter who doesn't record every bit of political punidtry on the telly and spend hours reading and debating the news would care that much about the reasons behind such gridlock as opposed to just saying "sure look, we gave you a chance and ye didn't deliver".

Going into government with SF is the same as going into government without SF for FF/FG.
Either SF blame the government or the coalition partner for any failures. Best solution is ff/fg/green and let SF win in 3-4y if the votes are there. Left wing governments have a 100% track record of failure anyway, but this way most companies have 2-3y to prepare.

McMurphy

Spare a thought for Blanch this afternoon, not only did the lads from Tyrone (a county in "a different country" according to him and a few others) put manners on the Dubs, but this poll might just send him over the edge altogether.

I await his in-depth analysis later.

Suckit

dxhound2005 wrote: »

We're fond of our history. After the demise of the Parliamentary Party in 1918, there was just Sinn Fein. From whence came FG and FF. The SF rump after 1932 went in various directions, eventually getting to the Provos. Who have come full circle into parliamentary politics. Tommy is right on the money.

Nobody saying otherwise, but I was smiling at the vote for change, and FFFG being one and the same, SFFF being one and the same - FG not ever able to deal with SF at all, at the same time describing themselves as a "party of the progressive centre" which it defines as acting "in a way that is right for Ireland, regardless of dogma or ideology".

FF senator has asked that MM step down.. Maybe some have started taking notice.
I wouldn't be so sure that any FG members would have the same balls to ask Leo. Look how long it took them to get Enda down.
Even if Leo were to step down, they would probably allow Harris or Murphy to step up.

FrancieBrady

RandomName2 wrote: »

SF's main raison d'etre is not housing or the HSE, it's a united Ireland.

That's just cheap rubbish.

SF right down to local level seem to me to be involved politically in every issue affecting society. Open your eyes.

smurgen

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Wow that's deep.

Now, armed with the knowledge that I've just furnished you with, can you explain why you would support & vote for Sinn Fein in 2020.

Here's a good one for you.The EU coming out directly calling FG liars and hinting at corruption.is this what a "normal" party looks like?

"Fine Gael are today accused of "obfuscation if not corruption" by an EU commission. Not only have they turned homelessness into a heartless for profit industry via emergency accommodation, but they are lying about how many people have been given shelter"

https://www.businesspost.ie/sectors/experts-report-says-some-rehoused-homeless-were-double-counted-9d77b7ce

RandomName2

Deleted User wrote: »

But the atrocities a generation ago, let's be a slave to the past and not move on, etc. How dare you exercise your democratic right and vote differently than me. It's a disgrace Joe.

But I thought you supported SF? Or is this rarely spotted double sarcasm?

Fann Linn wrote: »

Demographics in the North and a border poll as per Good Friday Agreement will decide a United Ireland.
Not Sinn Fein

And FG had nothing to do with gay marriage, they just motioned for it to be a thing, introduced the legislation, got it passed by government, and campaigned for it to be approved in a national referendum.

Plumbthedepths

smurgen wrote: »

Here's a good one for you.The EU coming out directly calling FG liars and hinting at corruption.

"Fine Gael are today accused of "obfuscation if not corruption" by an EU commission. Not only have they turned homelessness into a heartless for profit industry via emergency accommodation, but they are lying about how many people have been given shelter"

https://www.businesspost.ie/sectors/experts-report-says-some-rehoused-homeless-were-double-counted-9d77b7ce

I don't think anyone needed the EU to tell us FG were playing with the homeless figures A drop in numbers before the election and a rise of almost 500 afterwards.

Fann Linn

smurgen wrote: »

Here's a good one for you.The EU coming out directly calling FG liars and hinting at corruption.

"Fine Gael are today accused of "obfuscation if not corruption" by an EU commission. Not only have they turned homelessness into a heartless for profit industry via emergency accommodation, but they are lying about how many people have been given shelter"

https://www.businesspost.ie/sectors/experts-report-says-some-rehoused-homeless-were-double-counted-9d77b7ce

Haha, thats brilliant. But they'll dismiss the writer of that report as a Shinner, like the way they cast doubt last week on the professor who ripped apart Drew Harris latest meanderings.

RandomName2

McMurphy wrote: »

Tyrone (a county in "a different country" according to him and a few others)

Sinn Fein fanboy at it again. Reality is what they want it to be.

Why has nobody been discussing a FG-Alliance-DUP coalition? Or perhaps a FF-Social Democrat pact in Westminster?

Fann Linn wrote: »

Haha, thats brilliant. But they'll dismiss the writer of that report as a Shinner, like the way they cast doubt last week on the professor who ripped apart Drew Harris latest meanderings.

Or maybe just not bother reading something at all because it comes from the Sindo, Irish Times, or was written by someone from the Labour party. Sorry, no that's what the Sinn Fein supporters do.

DE MEDIA ARE ALL BIASED, AND WE DON'T CARE WHAT YOU SAY IT ONLY MAKES US MORE POPULAR but here's an interesting piece from a journalist that happens to support our position that you might be interested in.

BluePlanet

RandomName2 wrote: »

Being concerned about the prospect of violence is reasonable. People said that was a reasonable thing when talking about Brexit. If it's reasonable when talking about Brexit, then it's reasonable when talking about SF being at the helm of two separate governments.

How so?
SF in government in both parts of the island can only strengthen Ireland's hand when dealing with the British in particular.

Dyr

Fann Linn wrote: »

Haha, thats brilliant. But they'll dismiss the writer of that report as a Shinner, like the way they cast doubt last week on the professor who ripped apart Drew Harris latest meanderings.

Who was that now?