'Shock Poll' Sinn Fein now on 35%

J_1980

Suckit wrote: »

Where did you get that figure from?

The Real Costs of New Apartment Delivery found the cost of delivering a two-bedroom, low-rise apartment in suburban Dublin ranges from €293,000-€346,000 excluding VAT.


Mind you high density housing as everyone wants is way higher than that.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/578-000-to-build-a-two-bed-apartment-in-dublin-report-1.3266171?mode=amp

Proves my point SF won’t solve anything. 6bn builds you 12k social homes, not 100k.
Numbers are similar in Germany, so not an Irish issue.

Suckit

J_1980 wrote: »

The Real Costs of New Apartment Delivery found the cost of delivering a two-bedroom, low-rise apartment in suburban Dublin ranges from €293,000-€346,000 excluding VAT.


Mind you high density housing as everyone wants is way higher than that.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/578-000-to-build-a-two-bed-apartment-in-dublin-report-1.3266171?mode=amp

Proves my point SF won’t solve anything. 6bn builds you 12k social homes, not 100k.
Numbers are similar in Germany, so not an Irish issue.

I can't read past that paywall. Are you sure that's not per block of apartments?
Is it including buying the site and development?

EDIT - I see in that post you may have quoted the article - 'the cost of delivering'. Okay, so it's including other factors.

J_1980

Suckit wrote: »

I can't read past that paywall. Are you sure that's not per block of apartments?
Is it including buying the site and development?

EDIT - I see in that post you may have quoted the article - 'the cost of delivering'. Okay, so it's including other factors.

“Site costs” are given as 33-50k. Still doesn’t change my point even if the land is for free.
300k per block lol‚ did you time travel from 1975??

Suckit

J_1980 wrote: »

“Site costs” are given as 33-50k. Still doesn’t change my point even if the land is for free.
300k per block lol‚ did you time travel from 1975??

Cost of construction of a low rise block is closer to €300k than one apartment is to €300k+

McMurphy

Shefwedfan wrote: »

I see your still going around with aggressive posting and trying to bully people....

How many have you tried this approach with today?

This is a message board for discussing things, if people can just post any auld random guff without being asked to expand on their thoughts/reasoning, or sources to back up what they're saying, or likewise another user posts links to contradict something someone is saying, well then what would be the point in the site at all?

The big person at the end of a PC....

As I said if you can’t post with any sort of manners why bother....but sure wasting my time with the likes of you, ignore list I recommend to people

Let's revisit why you're accusing me of being unmannerly or bullying you.

You posted this earlier, and I responded to you with links that could completely countered what you were posting.

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Who is ranting or hammering out words? Just because someone has a different point of view doesn’t mean you think you can shout it down with accusations

To form a government SF need to talk to parties, so far they have talked to RTÉ and nobody else, they have zero interest. This is clear to any person that’s not ranting and raving

SF manifesto is a pile of poo, nothing can be delivered so SF are holding back hoping that FF/FG do form a government and they will throw s**t for the next 5 years

How do people not see this?

As I said I want SF in now, let them try and run a country, the only evidence we have so far is up the Northand they made a complete balls of that

Also this being together ireland is pure BS, we can’t afford to pay for Northern Ireland ....it would send us into another recession, let the UK keep that basket case

I replied in this post.
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112691007&postcount=155

This being the gist of it.

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Who is ranting or hammering out words? Just because someone has a different point of view doesn’t mean you think you can shout it down with accusations

I didn't say you were - sorry if you took me up wrong, I said quite clearly:

They have 37 seats, so think about that and take it into consideration before making your post anything other than a load of nonsensical ranting before you start hammering out words on your keyboard.

Which to be fair you seem not to have.

To form a government SF need to talk to parties, so far they have talked to RTÉ and nobody else, they have zero interest. This is clear to any person that’s not ranting and raving

SF manifesto is a pile of poo, nothing can be delivered so SF are holding back hoping that FF/FG do form a government and they will throw s**t for the next 5 years

How do people not see this?

As I said I want SF in now, let them try and run a country, the only evidence we have so far is up the Northand they made a complete balls of that

Also this being together ireland is pure BS, we can’t afford to pay for Northern Ireland ....it would send us into another recession, let the UK keep that basket case

You haven't been reading the news this past few weeks then, no?


Sinn Féin and Greens hold mammoth meeting

Sinn Féin meets with Rural Independents and Social Democrats today

Sinn Féin host 'constructive' talks with Greens and PBP

So, let's see.... They've met with the greens, the socdems, independents and PBP.

they haven't met with labour, FF/FG - all of which have categorically ruled out any coalition with SF.

Who else do you think they should have met may I ask?

Now repeat after me.

The.

Numbers.

Are not there.

For any govt to be formed

That doesn't include FF/FG.

and as FF/FG went home with the ball.

That makes any notion of SF forming a govt without then pretty much impossible.

Ironically enough you're accusing anyone of being "the big man" - a big man would just admit they made a mistake, (or were spouting balls) when they were presented with facts that countered what they were claiming.

Running away screaming bully and bad manners just makes you look silly, instead of thanking me for correcting you, you make bullying accusations. Gas.

I could have just agreed with you, but then we would have both been wrong.

J_1980

Suckit wrote: »

Cost of construction of a low rise block is closer to €300k than one apartment is to €300k+

Source?
My link is from Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI).
The insurance/rebuild value of the Gasworks is €250k per 2bed. Would you not think that a major property management firm (RF property) and a global insurance form (Zurich Re) have a decent idea what rebuilding the block costs?

RandomName2

McMurphy wrote: »

This will be the third time asking you now,


I'll ask again, who do you think the loyalist paramilitaries might target and what would their aims be?

If you can't answer, that's fine just say so, and we can move on.

FFS it has been well established that loyalists have rejected British rule and have used violence and intimidation in the past, often targeting security forces and civilians, in order to undermine Northern Ireland and collapse the state that they don't recognize.

Loyalists. How isn't it obvious that they would be looking for a united Ireland and using any means necessary to achieve that goal. The clue is in the name. Loyal to the 32 counties. How don't you know this.

Shefwedfan

Suckit wrote: »

Cost of construction of a low rise block is closer to €300k than one apartment is to €300k+

How you work that out? the land alone would be over 300k....

Shefwedfan

J_1980 wrote: »

Source?
My link is from Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI).
The insurance/rebuild value of the Gasworks is €250k per 2bed. Would you not think that a major property management firm (RF property) and a global insurance form (Zurich Re) have a decent idea what rebuilding the block costs?

Ahh you are using sense and reason, something that should not be used


The current method is shouting and abuse!!! its called "the Sinn Fein way"....


Dont reason with people just shout at them.....

Caquas

Suckit wrote: »

Cost of construction of a low rise block is closer to €300k than one apartment is to €300k+

No.

It defies common sense but the total cost of a typical 2-bed apartment these days ranges from €293,000 in a low-rise suburban development to €578,00 in an urban medium-rise construction. These figures are from the report by the Society of Chartered Surveyors which was quoted by the Irish Times.

The result is that the cost of building is below the market price for all types of apartments other than the basic, low-rise suburban type.

We have to get these costs down before we can solve the housing crisis. The main problem is not the cost of development land but the costs associated with regulation and red tape.

https://www.scsi.ie/documents/get_lob?id=1338&field=file

Shefwedfan

Caquas wrote: »

No.

It defies common sense but the total cost of a typical 2-bed apartment these days ranges from €293,000 in a low-rise suburban development to €578,00 in an urban medium-rise construction. These figures are from the report by the Society of Chartered Surveyors which was quoted by the Irish Times.

The result is that the cost of building is below the market price for all types of apartments other than the basic, low-rise suburban type.

We have to get these costs down before we can solve the housing crisis. The main problem is not the cost of development land but the costs associated with regulation and red tape.

https://www.scsi.ie/documents/get_lob?id=1338&field=file

I think it is more to do with the cost of the builders and construction people. Due to the lack of people filling these roles the costs have increased.



Hence why I find it difficult when people start posting about all these houses SF are going to build, or going on about getting the councils to build house. How are they going to get tradepeople to build these houses?

J_1980

Caquas wrote: »

No.

It defies common sense but the total cost of a typical 2-bed apartment these days ranges from €293,000 in a low-rise suburban development to €578,00 in an urban medium-rise construction. These figures are from the report by the Society of Chartered Surveyors which was quoted by the Irish Times.

The result is that the cost of building is below the market price for all types of apartments other than the basic, low-rise suburban type.

We have to get these costs down before we can solve the housing crisis. The main problem is not the cost of development land but the costs associated with regulation and red tape.

https://www.scsi.ie/documents/get_lob?id=1338&field=file

https://www.scsi.ie/documents/get_lob?id=1474&field=file

Building inflation is slowing but still running at 3-4%. So in 2021 you can add 8% to above 2019 prices.
Germany, Uk, china, usa all have an insatiable demand for construction. The Coronavirus might actually tighten supply of building materials and increase it further.
Social housing for people who don’t work is just insanity. No government will survive the next recession. It’ll be Troika time again.

RandomName2

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

That's the point I'm making though, FG are directly contributing to the unaffordability of housing in high demand areas by following FF's (and I cannot stress enough that FF invented this, not FG) model of "knock down high density public housing -> give the site to a developer for next to nothing -> get back only a fraction of what we had before in public housing and leave the rest at the mercy of the ruthless for-profit housing or rental market".

Okay, some examples? I can personally think of Ballymun, which had high density accommodation, and it was horrendous. It created a generation of people outside of society. It is now starting to look like a decent place thanks to that exact process you are outlining.

I can't readily think of very many others.

I can see lots of counterexamples whenever I drive to Dublin though. I see areas that were greenfield that have now got lots of apartments built on them. The vast swathe that was the Dunleary golf course of old seems now home to hundreds of homes for thousands of people. All private development I think.

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I agree with what others here are saying in that the SF vote wasn't just a "youthquake", but speaking for my own peers, the controversy over O'Devaney Gardens last year was probably the biggest talked about issue in terms of FG's failure on housing

Didn't that fail because Sinn Fein wasn't happy with the balance of public to private housing planned? Not that that's the main problem though, the main problem is the ungodly length of time it takes to get from plan to turning the first sod.

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Previous Irish governments solved housing crises by taking the reins of constructing and providing housing because it was the right thing to do, and FFG have not only refused to do this, but have literally given the two fingers to those who want that kind of shift back to a formerly successful policy and away from a policy which is actively contributing to a soaring cost of living and widespread misery for many, many people.

In fairness isn't it a bit more complicated than that these days? It would be easy to go for even more urban sprawl - developing Dublin housing out at Rockbrook, Newcastle, Lucan, Summerseat, and Kilnamonagh. That has always been the way in the past. But at this stage the urban sprawl has grown to 11km from the city center without any sufficient transport infrastructure to match.

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

This article was written in 2015, when the seeds of the housing crisis were already sprouting shoots and the disaster that awaited people who were leaving the nest and entering the market at that time was plainly obvious for all to see

You say this as if it is something new, but house prices are no greater than they were in 2007 (adjusted for inflation). House prices took a dip, along with everything during the recession. Now that the recession is firmly over they have gone back up to their heady prices. What's different?

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

The “market” never had and never would give them a decent place to live – the State did so instead. For all the problems, people in Crumlin had a secure roof over their heads and the chance to build a good community. We had homes.
Why could the State do this in the hungry 1930s and the postwar 1940s but not now?

You say this as if it is something worth emulating. There were plenty of regions that became St. Teresa's Garden-esque degenerate hotbeds of crime. This is one thing that has mercifully been mostly gotten rid of (though not totally). How can we guarantee that such developments don't end up like before?

Who2

J_1980 wrote: »

Source?
My link is from Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI).
The insurance/rebuild value of the Gasworks is €250k per 2bed. Would you not think that a major property management firm (RF property) and a global insurance form (Zurich Re) have a decent idea what rebuilding the block costs?

This wouldn’t be a true reflection of the build cost. The build cost would be a lot lower as the insurance would be allowing a massive proportion of this for site clearance and proper removal of waste. But then they probably wouldn’t be taking the site value into account so one would nearly negate the other so mightn’t be too far off.
Sorry if I’m thinking out loud.

Suckit

J_1980 wrote: »

Source?
My link is from Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI).
The insurance/rebuild value of the Gasworks is €250k per 2bed. Would you not think that a major property management firm (RF property) and a global insurance form (Zurich Re) have a decent idea what rebuilding the block costs?

Those values are not for construction alone. They include many other factors, resell value with Vat, development etc..
Often also, land is purchased in Ireland with no pp bringing the cost of the land right down compared to the cost of the same land with pp.

markodaly

McMurphy wrote: »

Despite you being corrected on this about two dozen times now, you seem to be back from a self imposed exile and have started to post about it again.

Bizarre.

This is a post truth world, you of all people should know as you are one of the biggest purveyors of this stuff.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It would only be defamation if I said it was you...I asked you 'was it you?'

Werent you a member of the crew that tortured that Quinn Exec? :pac::rolleyes:

smurgen

markodaly wrote: »

This is a post truth world, you of all people should know as you are one of the biggest purveyors of this stuff.

No it's fine Gael and there lackeys are post truth as reality no longer suits them.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Werent you a member of the crew that tortured that Quinn Exec? :pac::rolleyes:

No I wasn't.

Just had a quick look back at your 'predictions' in one of the pre - election threads, here's your insight from one:

markodaly wrote:

People are deluded if they think SF are going to get anywhere near 20% come election time.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112311337&postcount=1387


Just as well you weren't given control of any 'large wedges' of cash, eh?

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No I wasn't.

Just had a quick look back at your 'predictions' in one of the pre - election threads, here's your insight from one:

My prediction alligned quite nicely with SF HQ and MLMD, seeing as they reduced the amount of GE canidiates from 2016 to 2020.

Anyone who seriously thinks they saw this SF surge comming, is a outright bull$hitting liar, given that SF themselves were caught on the hop.

I guess you were the exception Francie, which begs the question. Why are you not selling your wares as a political consultatnt, rather than stalking people on the net?

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

My prediction alligned quite nicely with SF HQ and MLMD, seeing as they reduced the amount of GE canidiates from 2016 to 2020.

Anyone who seriously thinks they saw this SF surge comming, is a outright bull$hitting liar, given that SF themselves were caught on the hop.

I guess you were the exception Francie, which begs the question. Why are you not selling your wares as a political consultatnt, rather than stalking people on the net?

No nobody predicted it, including me but I did think SF were going to do quite well.
But most people have learned and didn't start the same nay-saying about the latest poll just to get some attention.

feargale

L1011 wrote: »

I'm 50/50 on it - I understand your point entirely; but by elections have been quite important in taking down unpopular government before the end of their original mandate here (and in the UK but that's single seat FPTP anyway) as well as causing other political changes.

The '94 by-elections allowed the Rainbow government for instance.

The March '98 by-elections also convinced DL to wrap it up in time for the '99 locals

The use of by-elections as a mid-term verdict on government is very much a hit and miss affair. No less than seven Dála had no by-election at all.. Furthermore constituencies vary and you could get a very different result as between say Dublin and Kerry. In Kerry you could get a third Unohu elected, and what would that say, good, bad or indifferent by way of verdict on the government? IMHO the likelihood of distortion outweighs any benefits, such as they might or might not be.
If you must have a midterm verdict, the better system, with imperative consequences to boot, might be the recall system. It has existed. In Massachusetts since 1631 and has been widely adopted elsewhere in the USA and also in some Latin American and European countries.
Even the UK introduced a limited recall procedure by the Recall of MPs Act 2015. On 1 May 2019, Fiona Onasanya became the first Westminster MP to be removed from office after a successful recall petition.
I would have reservations about recall from the point of view of stability. You might end up with very frequent elections. The UK type recall for misconduct would certainly be welcome and might have been put to good use here on occasion. The Chartists in their well-meaning naivete wanted a general election every year. It is telling that the most ardent of democrats have had little appetite for that. Be careful what you wish for.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No nobody predicted it, including me but I did think SF were going to do quite well.
But most people have learned and didn't start the same nay-saying about the latest poll just to get some attention.

Get attention?

My Friend, you are all over this topic like a flea on a turd, the past few weeks.
I just corrected your assumption that the B&A poll was an actual vote, rather than a poll.

As I said, FF polled 32% only 6 weeks ago by this very polling company.
When things settle and if there is a government or another election, who knows where things stand then.

The only certainty is more volatility for now.

Suckit

Caquas wrote: »

No.

It defies common sense but the total cost of a typical 2-bed apartment these days ranges from €293,000 in a low-rise suburban development to €578,00 in an urban medium-rise construction. These figures are from the report by the Society of Chartered Surveyors which was quoted by the Irish Times.

The result is that the cost of building is below the market price for all types of apartments other than the basic, low-rise suburban type.

We have to get these costs down before we can solve the housing crisis. The main problem is not the cost of development land but the costs associated with regulation and red tape.

https://www.scsi.ie/documents/get_lob?id=1338&field=file

Even that link shows the cost of construction a lot lower than that.

James Brown

suicide_circus wrote: »

there has to be another election, let SF get their full mandate and they'll have the country fixed in no time.

Well we know FF and FG only look after their own so yeah them or others beside FF/FG.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Get attention?

My Friend, you are all over this topic like a flea on a turd, the past few weeks.
I just corrected your assumption that the B&A poll was an actual vote, rather than a poll.

As I said, FF polled 32% only 6 weeks ago by this very polling company.
When things settle and if there is a government or another election, who knows where things stand then.

The only certainty is more volatility for now.

I know it wasn't a vote, as I also knew the statement that the 'vast majority won't vote for SF' was a guess. That they would get below 20% in the election was also guess.

When somebody wants to save you from yourself...let them!

Floppybits

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Varadkar's 'bullying & intimidating' whinge last week @ SF's public meetings has to be the most pathetic and cringiest statement I have ever heard come from a so-called leader's mouth in this country in my lifetime.
But dear Leo has form for stupid, bitchy remarks - he's a man promoted way above his abilities and not many people are left who are fooled by the spin.


By the end of this month, I don't think the civil war parties will have any of their own feet left to shoot.


I absolutely love it - FF/FG showing below 40% combined support is sweet music to my ears and there really is nowhere left to go but further down at this stage.
If I was on their PR/spin teams I wouldn't put this period down on my CV - they are that bad.
Career break might cover it.

If you thought the bitching and whinging over SF Public meetings were bad, today he is calling on CAB to investigate SF finances. This guy is self destructing.

Suckit

Floppybits wrote: »

If you thought the bitching and whinging over SF Public meetings were bad, today he is calling on CAB to investigate SF finances. This guy is self destructing.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/varadkar-seeks-probe-on-sf-finances-claiming-some-members-live-beyond-means-39004851.html

That is f**king hilarious..
'Some members live beyond means'
He's cracking up. Pressure definitely getting to him.
Varadkar asking CAB to investigate a political party.
Why do SF get the preferential treatment? Sure, investigate the lot of them. I'll bet it's not as well hidden as he thinks.
A lot of FG members now booking flights into the coronavirus

FrancieBrady

Suckit wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/varadkar-seeks-probe-on-sf-finances-claiming-some-members-live-beyond-means-39004851.html

That is f**king hilarious..
'Some members live beyond means'
He's cracking up. Pressure definitely getting to him.
Varadkar asking CAB to investigate a political party.
Why do SF get the preferential treatment? Sure, investigate the lot of them. I'll bet it's not as well hidden as he thinks.
A lot of FG members now booking flights into the coronavirus

And whadda you know, the ever helpful Indo doesn't hide the article behind a paywall.

tipptom

Floppybits wrote: »

If you thought the bitching and whinging over SF Public meetings were bad, today he is calling on CAB to investigate SF finances. This guy is self destructing.

Its amazing.

He is like a two bit Donald Trump going of every few day since the election and the latest poll seems to have upped the pain for him to lash out again.

Does this guy have no advisors?