'Shock Poll' Sinn Fein now on 35%

The Muppet

STB. wrote: »

Suckit.

The way voting works in this country is proportional representation, nothing else. The largest party is the one that returns the most seats with any government formation requiring at least 80 seats for a majority.

The pecking order is FF 38. SF 37. FG 35.

37 seats out of 180 is not a majority. The largest single party is clearly FF, but not by much.

Am I saying that FF and FG are the one and the same ? It doesn't matter if I see them as Pepsi and Coke (best analogy I can come up with). What matters is that their policies are closer than anyone else they can (or are willing to) form a government with. Added together that amounts to 73 of the 80 seats required. As distinct from 37.

That's a little too simplistic. Theres a lot of people who voted FG in the previous 2 elections who no longer want them in Government. Its a hugh gamble for any party to ignore the message those voters sent.

FrancieBrady

RandomName2 wrote: »

Have you anything of substance to contribute yourself?

Yes - you are as bad as the people you are criticising. Calm down, there is plenty of reasonable debate happening. You don't have to respond to everybody.

FrancieBrady

The Muppet wrote: »

That's a little too simplistic. Theres a lot of people who voted FG in the previous 2 elections who no longer want them in Government. Its a hugh gamble for any party to ignore the message those voters sent.

You would have to think the party which needs to listen is FF. Traditionally the one to pick up where FG left off, they have failed terribly and the polls show there is more loses possible.
Martin has seemed to toned it down this last while. Leo would do well to follow suit but I don't think there is going to be a recovery there for a while.

The Muppet

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You would have to think the party which needs to listen is FF. Traditionally the one to pick up where FG left off, they have failed terribly and the polls show there is more loses possible.
Martin has seemed to toned it down this last while. Leo would do well to follow suit but I don't think there is going to be a recovery there for a while.

Yes, I'd be very surprised if the grand coalition is formed. If it is your have to think it will be the beginning of the end for FF and FG as separate parties in the longer term and I cant see the grass roots of either party being very happy about that.

Seathrun66

STB. wrote: »

It hasn't been debunked. FF and FG have continuously both pre and post election given commitments that they would have no dealings whatsoever in the formation of government with SF.

Leaving aside the vast gulf in policies, two are centre right parties, the other very much left wing. There is a reason that SF took to the hotels post election. They knew they had nowhere else to go as the democratically elected others wanted nothing to do with them.

There is only one show in town and SF will not be part of it.

And if you do not grasp this, you shouldn't be posting on political fora.



Read the newspapers, if political history is an issue for you.

You said nobody, yet you only refer to FF & FG. Are you now backtracking on your bluster?

dxhound2005

The Muppet wrote: »

Yes, I'd be very surprised if the grand coalition is formed. If it is your have to think it will be the beginning of the end for FF and FG as separate parties in the longer term and I cant see the grass roots of either party being very happy about that.

Just as likely that if SF go into government, it will mark the end of their progress. They are new on the scene, only a minor party with 5 seats or less up to 2011. Being in government is bad for popularity.

Seathrun66

STB. wrote: »

Are we really at the stage now that Sinn Fein followers are in denial about where they stand ????


Irish general election: Fianna Fáil rules out Sinn Féin talks

Sinn Féin criticises 'disgraceful' Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael





Yes the context of what this thread is about the formation of a government and not the nonsense you have been posting.

Tell me how SF have the numbers to go into government if the two biggest centre right parties want nothing to do with them, Einstein.

Obfuscation my good man. You made a daft statement that nobody wanted to speak to SF. When asked to back it up you were unable to. Ranting is a distraction, but not an answer.

Any link to the Soc Dems, Labour, PBP, Solidarity, Greens or independent TDs refusing to speak to SF? Any at all?

dxhound2005

Seathrun66 wrote: »

Obfuscation my good man. You made a daft statement that nobody wanted to speak to SF. When asked to back it up you were unable to. Ranting is a distraction, but not an answer.

Any link to the Soc Dems, Labour, PBP, Solidarity, Greens or independent TDs refusing to speak to SF? Any at all?

You don't need any link to know that Labour won't be any part of the next government.

Seathrun66

STB. wrote: »

Ah "change", that golden word that keeps popping up.

I don't know if its deliberate or what, but 75% of the electorate did not buy into SF's flavour of change.

The two centre right parties hold 46% of the electorates vote. Plus ca change, eh.

FF & FG have 43.1%

Seathrun66

STB. wrote: »

Suckit.

The way voting works in this country is proportional representation, nothing else. The largest party is the one that returns the most seats with any government formation requiring at least 80 seats for a majority.

The pecking order is FF 38. SF 37. FG 35.

37 seats out of 180 is not a majority. The largest single party is clearly FF, but not by much.

Am I saying that FF and FG are the one and the same ? It doesn't matter if I see them as Pepsi and Coke (best analogy I can come up with). What matters is that their policies are closer than anyone else they can (or are willing to) form a government with. Added together that amounts to 73 of the 80 seats required. As distinct from 37.

Correction:

FF 37 SF 37

dxhound2005

Seathrun66 wrote: »

FF & FG have 43.1%

First preferences. But 45.62% of the seats, which is the most accurate measure under PR. Down at the lower end Labour got 6 seats with 4.4% first preferences, the SD's got 6 with 2.9%.

Seathrun66

dxhound2005 wrote: »

You don't need any link to know that Labour won't be any part of the next government.

Insider knowledge or guesswork? The OP said nobody would speak to SF and provided no information on that. It's palpable nonsense and in terms of Labour we've no idea where the next leadership will stand.

Seathrun66

dxhound2005 wrote: »

First preferences. But 45.62% of the seats, which is the most accurate measure under PR. Down at the lower end Labour got 6 seats with 4.4% first preferences, the SD's got 6 with 2.9%.

The OP said 46% of the electorate's votes. Incorrect.

STB.

The Muppet wrote: »

That's a little too simplistic. Theres a lot of people who voted FG in the previous 2 elections who no longer want them in Government. Its a hugh gamble for any party to ignore the message those voters sent.

Comparatively to whom ?

What message the voters sent ? A minority of voters ?

Governments are formed by seats, 46% of them are held by FF & FG.

Seathrun66 wrote: »

The OP said 46% of the electorate's votes. Incorrect.

The electorates vote is measured in seats in Dáil Eireann. No other way.

Seathrun66 wrote: »

Correction:

FF 37 SF 37

Correction FF 38 SF 37. The siting Ceann Comhairle (elected by members of the Dáil) is deemed automatically to have been re-elected by their constituency at that general election to protect the constitution of this country. This has been the case since 1937.

dxhound2005

Seathrun66 wrote: »

Insider knowledge or guesswork? The OP said nobody would speak to SF and provided no information on that. It's palpable nonsense and in terms of Labour we've no idea where the next leadership will stand.

Do you think the other parties should wait around for the next month, to see who will be the next Labour leader? Both candidates are selling themselves to the party faithful on a very clear promise that they will stay out of government.

Seathrun66

dxhound2005 wrote: »

You don't need any link to know that Labour won't be any part of the next government.

From tonight's Irish Times:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/labour-leader-contenders-leave-door-open-to-government-talks-1.4190873?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Flabour-leader-contenders-leave-door-open-to-government-talks-1.4190873

STB.

Seathrun66 wrote: »

From tonight's Irish Times:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/labour-leader-contenders-leave-door-open-to-government-talks-1.4190873?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Flabour-leader-contenders-leave-door-open-to-government-talks-1.4190873

No chance. The only reason SF picked up 15 extra seats is as a direct consequence of the self implosion of the Labour party over the past 6 years.

They will be rebuilding for some time.

Seathrun66 wrote: »

Obfuscation my good man. You made a daft statement that nobody wanted to speak to SF. When asked to back it up you were unable to. Ranting is a distraction, but not an answer.

Any link to the Soc Dems, Labour, PBP, Solidarity, Greens or independent TDs refusing to speak to SF? Any at all?

I have seen no claims that SF have managed to put a viable government formation forward. Any links ?

No you don't, the numbers aren't there, so why would there be discussions. They could talk about football and other stuff I suppose, but it wouldn't be meaningful to government formation now, would it.

dxhound2005

Seathrun66 wrote: »

From tonight's Irish Times:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/labour-leader-contenders-leave-door-open-to-government-talks-1.4190873?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Flabour-leader-contenders-leave-door-open-to-government-talks-1.4190873

From the little bit I can read, that is one hell of a turnaround. The coalition of the Left is certainly on now, and FF and FG both frozen out.

Seathrun66

STB. wrote: »

No chance. The only reason SF picked up 15 extra seats is as a direct consequence of the self implosion of the Labour party over the past 6 years.

They will be rebuilding for some time.


I have seen no claims that SF have managed to put a viable government formation forward. Any links ?

No you don't, the numbers aren't there, so why would there be discussions. They could talk about football and other stuff I suppose, but it wouldn't be meaningful to government formation now, would it.

Not your point. You said nobody would talk with SF. When challenged you backtracked. Demonstrably wrong and continuing to obfuscate.

STB.

dxhound2005 wrote: »

From the little bit I can read, that is one hell of a turnaround. The coalition of the Left is certainly on now, and FF and FG both frozen out.

Numbers aren't there, even jenga style. With 5 other mini parties, and a load of independents. SF wouldnt even take that risk. Government wouldn't last a wet week.

Telling first paragraph "if a government isn't formed by April". It'll be in place by end of March.

The world and its mother knows that FF/FG/GP are picking the seats and splitting up the pieces as we discuss this.

Seathrun66

dxhound2005 wrote: »

From the little bit I can read, that is one hell of a turnaround. The coalition of the Left is certainly on now, and FF and FG both frozen out.

Could be, though a very shaky one.

Though they're non-committal so they could go in with FF/FG/Greens. One hell of a gamble for Labour and hard to see them coming well out of it.

STB.

Seathrun66 wrote: »

Not your point. You said nobody would talk with SF. When challenged you backtracked. Demonstrably wrong and continuing to obfuscate.

Any party can talk to whom they want, but those talks would have to be meaningful. EOB knew it from the start.

So show me. What have you got ? Nothing, that's what you have got. Otherwise SF would have been shouting from the rooftops. Instead they had meaningless hotel rallies.

Seathrun66

STB. wrote: »

Numbers aren't there, even jenga style. With 5 other mini parties, and a load of independents. SF wouldnt even take that risk. Government wouldn't last a wet week.

Telling first paragraph "if a government isn't formed by April". It'll be in place by end of March.

The world and its mother knows that FF/FG/GP are picking the seats and splitting up the pieces as we discuss this.

Do they though, or just you and your drinking mates? It could happen but it would likely mean a battering for the Greens at the next election and unlikely to do FF/FG much good either.

Seathrun66

STB. wrote: »

Any talk would have to be meaningful.

So show me. What have you got ? Nothing, that's what you have got. Otherwise SF would have been shouting from the rooftops. Instead they had meaningless hotel rallies.

Are you finally giving up on blustering through your assertion that nobody would speak to SF?

STB.

Seathrun66 wrote: »

Are you finally giving up on blustering through your assertion that nobody would speak to SF?

Why would anyone talk to SF about forming a government, if the numbers were not there ? Give me some links to Mary Lou's alternative agreements or successful talks if any ? Surely you have some ? All fur coat and no knickers.

FF said they would talk with anyone but SF given their history with the IRA.

FG - They were unequivocal, even released a video

Labour - We don’t see ourselves in any kind of arrangement with Sinn Féin in terms of government.

It's all academic after that. And bluster! A bit like SF's policies, the figures don't add up. SF realised all that when they held meaningless Hotel rallies.

Seathrun66

STB. wrote: »

Why would anyone talk to SF, if the numbers were not there.


FF said they would talk with anyone but SF given their history with the IRA.


FG - They were unequivocal, even released a video


Labour - We don’t see ourselves in any kind of arrangement with Sinn Féin in terms of government.


It's all academic after that. And bluster! A bit like SF's policies, the figures don't add up.

You said nobody when you really meant FF/FG.

Soc Dems open to talks.
Left independents open to talks and some have voted ML for Taoiseach.
PBP/Solidarity open to talks.
Labour open to talks with a new leader.
Greens open to talks.

In summary, when you post a nonsensical point, and it's debunked thoroughly by several responses, it's best to retreat gracefully.

STB.

Seathrun66 wrote: »

Do they though, or just you and your drinking mates? It could happen but it would likely mean a battering for the Greens at the next election and unlikely to do FF/FG much good either.

Do you think they'll give SF an opportunity to run this country into the ground ? They have a responsibility to 46% of the electorate who gave them their seats.

The Greens are on a high, they are the single most improved party in the GE this year having gained 10 seats. They want to be in power and want a Climate Change portfolio.

Try harder.

STB.

Seathrun66 wrote: »

You said nobody when you really meant FF/FG.

Soc Dems open to talks.
Left independents open to talks and some have voted ML for Taoiseach.
PBP/Solidarity open to talks.
Labour open to talks with a new leader.
Greens open to talks.

In summary, when you post a nonsensical point, and it's debunked thoroughly by several responses, it's best to retreat gracefully.

You might want to read what Labour actually said.

The numbers are not there. You know it, I know it. If it was a runner, it would have happened and been put forward by Mary Lou already. I think Eoin O'Broin (a fine politician btw) admitted as much when he referred to some of the independents as being gene pool FF/FG.

The only place to retreat for hardened SF dreamers like yourself is to the opposition benches where 75% of the electorate where happy to see ya's. It's were SF perform best.

Unless you are in a position to debunk the reality that SF have had no meaningful talks to provide an alternative formation ? No ?

Seathrun66

STB. wrote: »

Do you think they'll give SF an opportunity to run this country into the ground ? They have a responsibility to 46% of the electorate who gave them their seats.

The Greens are on a high, they are the single most improved party in the GE this year having gained 10 seats. They want to be in power and want a Climate Change portfolio.

Try harder.

Again, it's 43% of the electorate. False statistics for the third time.

SF/Greens/SD/Labour, etc have decent and capable representatives who I'd trust more with the scrupulous administration of this country than FF/FG. History doesn't teat the latter pair well.

Idbatterim

SHy do people think greens will be hammered if they go into government? I don’t think they will. Labour voters were delusional, I don’t think k green voters are for the most part. Go into government and if Dublin metro isn’t started in 2021 or whenever is currently planned , pull the plug on government!

If I were ff or fg I would not want to gone into leading. Sf might but unless you are planning to upset the Apple cart and ffg won’t. You’re not going to get any results and face decimation. I thought it might take the end of the world to did us of the vice like grip the axis of failure has had on this state for decades. Turns out , they have just destroyed themselves ...