'Shock Poll' Sinn Fein now on 35%

feargale

L1011 wrote: »

They can't change the European one as the replacement list system is pan-European and Europe as a whole are never going to go for by-elections.
Also, Stormont uses co-options.

It is the only fair way in multi-seat constituencies. A Dàil by-election distorts the people's will in that if a T.D. from a small party who has been elected under P.R resigns, dies etc their party albeit taking an equal number of votes in the by-election will most likely lose the seat to a bigger party. The candidate in the European election nominates their substitute before the election, so, before you vote, at least you know who will replace the MEP if the seat is vacated.

L1011

feargale wrote: »

It is the only fair way in multi-seat constituencies. A Dàil by-election distorts the people's will in that if a T.D. from a small party who has been elected under P.R resigns, dies etc their party albeit taking an equal number of votes in the by-election will most likely lose the seat to a bigger party. The candidate in the European election nominates their substitute before the election, so, before you vote, at least you know who will replace the MEP if the seat is vacated.

I'm 50/50 on it - I understand your point entirely; but by elections have been quite important in taking down unpopular government before the end of their original mandate here (and in the UK but that's single seat FPTP anyway) as well as causing other political changes.

The '94 by-elections allowed the Rainbow government for instance.

The March '98 by-elections also convinced DL to wrap it up in time for the '99 locals

hatrickpatrick

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Let's not deny it or fire slander at them because it is only causing harm.

It is astounding to me that FFG cannot honestly perceive the unbelievable damage they're doing to their own standing with disaffected floating voters by throwing their toys out of the pram and attacking Sinn Fein using literally any mud they can think of. The anti-SF propaganda emanating from the establishment both in terms of statements by politicians and officials, and in terms of relentless media spin, is not succeeding in accomplishing anything other than pushing floating voters towards Sinn Fein, for no reason other than the simple fact that people don't like being told what to do, and they certainly don't like being talked down to by people with an air or tone of undeserved superiority.

I know so many people who have switched to SF only since the election purely out of sheer stubbornness, because they recognise the absolutely relentless anti-SF crap for what it is - an establishment which sees its power under threat and is banding together to manipulate the electorate and save its own sorry skin.

This is exactly what happened with both Trump and Brexit, and it just amazes me that the political establishment still thinks this is a "thing" that works - you do not win an election with negative campaigning which focuses on decrying your rivals (and by extension, their supporters) as bad or stupid people, while simultaneously not actually doing anything to justify or sell your own ideology to those same voters. It doesn't work, and it's well documented in pretty much any social situation that human beings are inclined to double down and dig their heels in when they are nagged at without justification by people they do not respect.

Even those here who despise SF and support the establishment must agree with at least some of this? The relentless "SF bad, SF voters stupid, don't do what again" bullsh!t over the last couple of weeks is not working. And, furthermore, those politicians and media pundits engaging in it should know better, as it's plain feckin' common sense that this technique doesn't work. It hasn't worked in any other high profile case of trying to stem a political tide over the last decade, and it won't work this time. If those in power don't understand that, they really aren't competent enough to be in power in the first place.

Sir Oxman

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

It is astounding to me that FFG cannot honestly perceive the unbelievable damage they're doing to their own standing with disaffected floating voters by throwing their toys out of the pram and attacking Sinn Fein using literally any mud they can think of. The anti-SF propaganda emanating from the establishment both in terms of statements by politicians and officials, and in terms of relentless media spin, is not succeeding in accomplishing anything other than pushing floating voters towards Sinn Fein, for no reason other than the simple fact that people don't like being told what to do, and they certainly don't like being talked down to by people with an air or tone of undeserved superiority.

I know so many people who have switched to SF only since the election purely out of sheer stubbornness, because they recognise the absolutely relentless anti-SF crap for what it is - an establishment which sees its power under threat and is banding together to manipulate the electorate and save its own sorry skin.

This is exactly what happened with both Trump and Brexit, and it just amazes me that the political establishment still thinks this is a "thing" that works - you do not win an election with negative campaigning which focuses on decrying your rivals (and by extension, their supporters) as bad or stupid people, while simultaneously not actually doing anything to justify or sell your own ideology to those same voters. It doesn't work, and it's well documented in pretty much any social situation that human beings are inclined to double down and dig their heels in when they are nagged at without justification by people they do not respect.

Even those here who despise SF and support the establishment must agree with at least some of this? The relentless "SF bad, SF voters stupid, don't do what again" bullsh!t over the last couple of weeks is not working. And, furthermore, those politicians and media pundits engaging in it should know better, as it's plain feckin' common sense that this technique doesn't work. It hasn't worked in any other high profile case of trying to stem a political tide over the last decade, and it won't work this time. If those in power don't understand that, they really aren't competent enough to be in power in the first place.

Varadkar's 'bullying & intimidating' whinge last week @ SF's public meetings has to be the most pathetic and cringiest statement I have ever heard come from a so-called leader's mouth in this country in my lifetime.
But dear Leo has form for stupid, bitchy remarks - he's a man promoted way above his abilities and not many people are left who are fooled by the spin.


By the end of this month, I don't think the civil war parties will have any of their own feet left to shoot.


I absolutely love it - FF/FG showing below 40% combined support is sweet music to my ears and there really is nowhere left to go but further down at this stage.
If I was on their PR/spin teams I wouldn't put this period down on my CV - they are that bad.
Career break might cover it.

FG did a very sound job in government. Something tells me that their rainy day budgets will be much appreciated as Corona continues to impact the economy.

lawred2

[Deleted User] wrote: »

FG did a very sound job in government. Something tells me that their rainy day budgets will be much appreciated as Corona continues to impact the economy.

Has state spending ever been higher?

Rainy day budgets my hole.

RandomName2

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

It is astounding to me that FFG cannot honestly perceive the unbelievable damage they're doing to their own standing with disaffected floating voters by throwing their toys out of the pram and attacking Sinn Fein using literally any mud they can think of. The anti-SF propaganda emanating from the establishment both in terms of statements by politicians and officials, and in terms of relentless media spin, is not succeeding in accomplishing anything other than pushing floating voters towards Sinn Fein, for no reason other than the simple fact that people don't like being told what to do, and they certainly don't like being talked down to by people with an air or tone of undeserved superiority.

I know so many people who have switched to SF only since the election purely out of sheer stubbornness, because they recognise the absolutely relentless anti-SF crap for what it is - an establishment which sees its power under threat and is banding together to manipulate the electorate and save its own sorry skin.

This is exactly what happened with both Trump and Brexit, and it just amazes me that the political establishment still thinks this is a "thing" that works - you do not win an election with negative campaigning which focuses on decrying your rivals (and by extension, their supporters) as bad or stupid people, while simultaneously not actually doing anything to justify or sell your own ideology to those same voters. It doesn't work, and it's well documented in pretty much any social situation that human beings are inclined to double down and dig their heels in when they are nagged at without justification by people they do not respect.

Even those here who despise SF and support the establishment must agree with at least some of this? The relentless "SF bad, SF voters stupid, don't do what again" bullsh!t over the last couple of weeks is not working. And, furthermore, those politicians and media pundits engaging in it should know better, as it's plain feckin' common sense that this technique doesn't work. It hasn't worked in any other high profile case of trying to stem a political tide over the last decade, and it won't work this time. If those in power don't understand that, they really aren't competent enough to be in power in the first place.

Yes, I've always said it. Sinn Fein may be scumbags, but that doesn't mean that people voting for them are. Of course there will be scumbags voting for them, but you could say that for any party.

It is not legitimate to say that whoever supports someone you oppose must belong to a basket of deplorables. To quote Jonathan Pie, not everyone who voted for Trump is sexist or a racist. Many millions of people who voted for Trump did so because they were concerned about their jobs. It is no surprise that Blue collars in the rust belt would not necessarily see their interests lying with the Wall Street financed establishment figure of Hilary Clinton.

It is understandable that people who saw Trump as being the worst thing this century has yet produced lashed out at large swathes of American voters, but this is counterproductive. Trump is a fool, his policies are flaky, his foreign policy is usually counterproductive, he flip-flops at the drop of a MAGA hat. These are the things his detractors should focus on, not the size of his hands or his hair, and certainly not the demographic that makes up his supporters.

In the same way that Sinn Fein's idiotic economic policies should be addressed. The fact that they apparently cannot stomach calling this country by its name. The fact that they have no idea how to improve the health service other than funneling even more money into it. The fact that their plan to support vast increases of spending across the board is, as ever, predicated on choking the life out of large businesses on which we are dependent for our employment. The fact that their main ambition is a united Ireland, regardless of the financial, social, or political cost.

ricero

Great to see that the revolution is still in full swing and growing. Varadkar and Martin only have themselves to blame.

Sinn Fein will lead a majority government within the decade i feel. The younger generations have woken up and spoken.

Shefwedfan

With all the BS coming out about SF when are they actually going to try form a government?

I see all these posts and then hundreds of post about FF and FG, simple fact is SF have done NOTHING so far to try form a government

So run all the polls you want, posts day in day out about everyone but it will make no difference because SF don’t want to be in government

That’s all that matter

So instead of concentrating on FF / FG why not start putting pressure on SF to start backing up all the crap they are saying

Wanderer78

ricero wrote: »

Great to see that the revolution is still in full swing and growing. Varadkar and Martin only have themselves to blame.

Sinn Fein will lead a majority government within the decade i feel. The younger generations have woken up and spoken.

I wouldn't get overly excited there, ffg are behemoths, they're not going away anytime soon

J_1980

ricero wrote: »

Great to see that the revolution is still in full swing and growing. Varadkar and Martin only have themselves to blame.

Sinn Fein will lead a majority government within the decade i feel. The younger generations have woken up and spoken.

This is the last government that has budget surpluses and a healthy economy.

The 20’s will be a pretty miserable time in Europe. What the rise of China has done to Western living standards, the rise of India will do again. The West simply cannot compete. So far debt and more debt is tapering over the effects, but for how long?

Shefwedfan

Shefwedfan wrote: »

With all the BS coming out about SF when are they actually going to try form a government?

I see all these posts and then hundreds of post about FF and FG, simple fact is SF have done NOTHING so far to try form a government

So run all the polls you want, posts day in day out about everyone but it will make no difference because SF don’t want to be in government

That’s all that matter

So instead of concentrating on FF / FG why not start putting pressure on SF to start backing up all the crap they are saying

I don’t think they actually want it to be honest. If the polls continue the way they are, maybe next time they’ll have to make a more feasible manifesto so they’re not held accountable for ridiculous promises.

Shefwedfan

ricero wrote: »

Great to see that the revolution is still in full swing and growing. Varadkar and Martin only have themselves to blame.

Sinn Fein will lead a majority government within the decade i feel. The younger generations have woken up and spoken.

They could lead it now if they bothered

The younger generation? Haha haha

Shefwedfan

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don’t think they actually want it to be honest. If the polls continue the way they are, maybe next time they’ll have to make a more feasible manifesto so they’re not held accountable for ridiculous promises.

All correct

Best bit is all the posters on here think they are leading a revolution or something....they voted for a load of rubbish

Fiery mutant

Shefwedfan wrote: »

With all the BS coming out about SF when are they actually going to try form a government?

I see all these posts and then hundreds of post about FF and FG, simple fact is SF have done NOTHING so far to try form a government

So run all the polls you want, posts day in day out about everyone but it will make no difference because SF don’t want to be in government

That’s all that matter

So instead of concentrating on FF / FG why not start putting pressure on SF to start backing up all the crap they are saying

SF can’t form a government because the old boys club keep refusing any chance of it, and there are not enough numbers in what’s remaining.

Even reading through this sh1tshow of a thread surely you picked that up.

dxhound2005

Sir Oxman wrote: »

I absolutely love it - FF/FG showing below 40% combined support is sweet music to my ears and there really is nowhere left to go but further down at this stage.
If I was on their PR/spin teams I wouldn't put this period down on my CV - they are that bad.
Career break might cover it.

The crowing triumphalism of the SF supporters is evident again.

smurgen

Delighted to see the expected posters in here on the weekend shift distracting and spinning FFG's further slip in the polls.i hope the spin unit pays time and a half at weekends.

ChikiChiki

Coronavirus mixed with a shambolic HSE will cement Sinn Féins position in my opinion.

As soon as cases balloon and people realise they will get know help off an under resourced HSE I can see the anger being directed further at FFFG.

Shefwedfan

Fiery mutant wrote: »

SF can’t form a government because the old boys club keep refusing any chance of it, and there are not enough numbers in what’s remaining.

Even reading through this sh1tshow of a thread surely you picked that up.

Really?

When has Mary Lou gone to any party, any party about forming a government

Shefwedfan

smurgen wrote: »

Delighted to see the expected posters in here on the weekend shift distracting and spinning FFG's further slip in the polls.i hope the spin unit pays time and a half at weekends.

Delighted to see you still haven’t a clue

I have said all along I want a SF government because Everyone can see how useless they are

Problem is SF know they are useless and won’t go into government

dxhound2005

smurgen wrote: »

Delighted to see the expected posters in here on the weekend shift distracting and spinning FFG's further slip in the polls.i hope the spin unit pays time and a half at weekends.

I think you really believe that, and you have bought into the SF conspiracy theories. I would not like to think you are just being nasty to other posters.

McMurphy

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

This country would be in much better hands if all politicians were like Ming! Integrity galore

I think you might be indulging in a little bit of sarcasm above, dunno - I used to be fairly good at sarcasm detection, but I've become a bit rusty of late.

But just checking here, you're referring to Ming - out with the turf cutters one day, and the next day out with a green party candidate Flannigan as having integrity?

Shefwedfan wrote: »

They could lead it now if they bothered

The younger generation? Haha haha

Please explain how.

They have 37 seats, so think about that and take it into consideration before making your post anything other than a load of nonsensical ranting before you start hammering out words on your keyboard.

I'll go put the kettle on.

Shefwedfan

McMurphy wrote: »

I think you might be indulging in a little bit of sarcasm above, dunno - I used to be fairly good at sarcasm detection, but I've become a bit rusty of late.

But just checking here, you're referring to Ming - out with the turf cutters one day, and the next day out with a green party candidate Flannigan as having integrity?



Please explain how.

They have 37 seats, so think about that and take it into consideration before making your post anything other than a load of nonsensical ranting before you start hammering out words on your keyboard.

I'll go put the kettle on.

Who is ranting or hammering out words? Just because someone has a different point of view doesn’t mean you think you can shout it down with accusations

To form a government SF need to talk to parties, so far they have talked to RTÉ and nobody else, they have zero interest. This is clear to any person that’s not ranting and raving

SF manifesto is a pile of poo, nothing can be delivered so SF are holding back hoping that FF/FG do form a government and they will throw s**t for the next 5 years

How do people not see this?

As I said I want SF in now, let them try and run a country, the only evidence we have so far is up the Northand they made a complete balls of that

Also this being together ireland is pure BS, we can’t afford to pay for Northern Ireland ....it would send us into another recession, let the UK keep that basket case

Bishop of hope

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Who is ranting or hammering out words? Just because someone has a different point of view doesn’t mean you think you can shout it down with accusations

To form a government SF need to talk to parties, so far they have talked to RTÉ and nobody else, they have zero interest. This is clear to any person that’s not ranting and raving

SF manifesto is a pile of poo, nothing can be delivered so SF are holding back hoping that FF/FG do form a government and they will throw s**t for the next 5 years

How do people not see this?

You won't be joining the revolution then?

ThunbergsAreGo

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don’t think they actually want it to be honest. If the polls continue the way they are, maybe next time they’ll have to make a more feasible manifesto so they’re not held accountable for ridiculous promises.

Most don't care about how realistic manifestos are or even read them.

It's all about the messaging

RandomName2

Fiery mutant wrote: »

SF can’t form a government because the old boys club keep refusing any chance of it, and there are not enough numbers in what’s remaining.

Even reading through this sh1tshow of a thread surely you picked that up.

Sinn Fein initially said they were not going to consider going into government with FF or FG and that they were going to try and form a government without either of those parties. It should come as no surprise to anyone that basic arithmetic be beyond their grasp.

When they realized that you cannot get up to 80 seats without 80 seats they backpedaled and said that they'd be open to negotiations with FF. You know, have the old boys club back in business. However FF has previously said they were not going to co into coalition with SF and seem to be sticking to their word.

This is going to continue being a sh1tshow until one of these three parties gets around 40% of the vote, or people start looking away from a problematic party like Sinn Fein for a 'left' solution, and instead to Greens, SD, whatever. Unfortunately, going by the most recent poll, SF seems to have sucked up some of the support from the other left parties. The worst possible scenario.

JohnnyFlash

It’s time to go back to the people and have another election. People want change. Let them vote for that change.

nigeldaniel

I do not trust polls myself. They can be manipulated by clever clogs to one end or another with the intention of sucking in undecided voters.

BluePlanet

Shefwedfan wrote: »

To form a government SF need to talk to parties, so far they have talked to RTÉ and nobody else, they have zero interest. This is clear to any person that’s not ranting and raving

Wow you are really not paying attention.


Feb 12th:

Sinn Féin held talks with the leaders of a number of left-wing parties on Wednesday as it tries to assess the viability of leading a government without the involvement of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-holds-talks-with-left-wing-parties-in-bid-to-form-a-government-1.4171278

Feb 25th:
Sinn Féin has held a seven-and-a-half hour meeting involving “detailed discussions on policy” with the Green Party and has agreed to meet once more next week.
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/sinn-fein-and-greens-hold-mammoth-meeting-984033.html

smurgen

nigeldaniel wrote: »

I do not trust polls myself. They can be manipulated by clever clogs to one end or another with the intention of sucking in undecided voters.

You're right.probably understated on the SF surge. But there's been alot of manipulation in this campaign like the drop in homeless figures that mysteriously rose again after the election.