'Shock Poll' Sinn Fein now on 35%

smurgen

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Honestly mate, you should just hold your hand up and say, "I got this wrong, thanks for pointing it out."

Going on the attack and not recognising mistakes has already cost FFG a lot. Their social media team should be focussed on the good they could do, rather than the negative politics we're watching today.

They would rather see the country wrecked than relinquish power to a third party.

dark crystal

Muahahaha wrote: »

Pretty unbelievable numbers coming out of the Sunday Times Behaviour and Attitudes poll in tomorrows newspaper

Sinn Fein 35% (up 10%)
Fianna Fail 20% (down 2%)
Fine Gael 18% (down 3%)

I guess lots of people werent intimidated by those Sinn Fein public meetings like Leo said because they've only gone and added another 10% to their general election result. That strongly suggests there is a cohort of people out there who didnt vote for Sinn Fein in the recent election but now wish that they did and they will do so if given another opportunity.

I'd say this poll will have alarm bells going off in FF and FG headquarters tonight and from Monday we will see them both scrambling to get into government together ASAP. Because if theres another election due to both of them refusing to marry up on the basis of civil war politics then their polling numbers will go even further down the toilet.

Dear, oh dear. It's almost as if Micheal Martin telling voters of certain parties that their votes didn't count has annoyed said voters somewhat - and a few more on top of that for good measure.

Who would have thought that level of arrogance would have riled people so?

Galwayguy35

smurgen wrote: »

I want a left wing government for once.it's clear to me that the days of crony capitalism are over and we need a new mindset for the new challenges we face.

OK tell me in how SF and their new mindset will solve the problems facing the country, should be no problem for you seeing as you would happy to see them in government.

meeeeh

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF greening their vote to a putative 35% surely means that you can no longer depend on that statement - 'that the vast majority would not vote for SF'?

Hate to break it to you but the majority is still 50%+1. Until you have reliable poll showing that you can very much state that majority would not vote SF. Wishful thinking is not replacement for hard data.

gormdubhgorm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF greening their vote to a putative 35% surely means that you can no longer depend on that statement - 'that the vast majority would not vote for SF'?

Talk of ceilings on their vote is not tenable at the minute.

Yes it is because as the poster said they did not do well in the Europeans and Locals. Ask yourself why was that? Because many of these new SF voters did not even know they were on! Which says to me that there is a large cohort of this SF vote are new to the whole idea of voting.

RandomName2

smurgen wrote: »

You're not giving the full picture.we also have one of the highest proportion of low paid workers in Europe. The second highest average cost in Europe(27% higher than the EU average).Our country has been disastrously mismanaged by FFG and now the cosy cartel will be ripped apart.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0226/1117715-cso-measuring-progress/

https://www.thejournal.ie/workers-in-ireland-on-low-pay-4764896-Aug2019/

Thankfully despite the high number of low income workers, we can definitely discard that in relation to our calculations of our tax base, and instead have people earning >100,000 and the multinationals pay for a budget that has 10s of billions of euro added to it. - Sinn Fein spokesperson

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF greening their vote to a putative 35% surely means that you can no longer depend on that statement - 'that the vast majority would not vote for SF'?

Yes, I would describe 35% as a large minority. Is it enough to form a government? Probably still not without FF or FG, seeing that that 35% has sucked about 7% of support from the other left wing groups and independents.

meeeeh

Just to ad no party will get close to 50%. What current results show is weakening of support for traditional parties,as it happens majority migrated to SFthis time. However another leg leaning party could play their cards right and they could get rid votes next time.

RandomName2

smurgen wrote: »

They would rather see the country wrecked than relinquish power to a third party.

You mean a third party like the Greens with whom they have been in active coalition discussions with?

Oh no, smurgen just means Sinn Fein. That is a surprise. :rolleyes:

Of course, Sinn Fein warns the Green party not to go into government with Fianna Fail or Fine Gael

Pintman Paddy Losty

Doesnt matter a sh1te what SF get in an opinion poll. Doesn't matter one iota. All that matters is the election results.

It'll be FFFGGreen for the next number of years and SF can do what they do best. Whinge, b1tch and moan and make unrealistic promises, while the adults deliver broadband and build hospitals.

McMurphy

Deleted User wrote: »

Honestly mate, you should just hold your hand up and say, "I got this wrong, thanks for pointing it out."

Going on the attack and not recognising mistakes has already cost FFG a lot. Their social media team should be focussed on the good they could do, rather than the negative politics we're watching today.

It's a bizarre way of going on tbh.

"SF have zero interest in govt, they should be off talking with other party's instead of RTE"

*Insert numerous links to show they (SF) have been indulging in talks and meetings with all other party's outside of FFG/Lab**

STOP HARASSING AND HARANGUING ME WITH YOUR LACK OF MANNERS.

Rinse and repeat.

FrancieBrady

RandomName2 wrote: »

Thankfully despite the high number of low income workers, we can definitely discard that in relation to our calculations of our tax base, and instead have people earning >100,000 and the multinationals pay for a budget that has 10s of billions of euro added to it. - Sinn Fein spokesperson




Yes, I would describe 35% as a large minority. Is it enough to form a government? Probably still not without FF or FG, seeing that that 35% has sucked about 7% of support from the other left wing groups and independents.

How much more does the vote percentage have to grow before you accept that you cannot say this anymore? is 65% a 'vast majority'?

'that the vast majority would not vote for SF'?

Quite possible it could move to 60% or 55% if FF FG do cobble something together. The Greens don't seem to be getting an endorsement for sizing up going in with that.

FrancieBrady

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Doesnt matter a sh1te what SF get in an opinion poll. Doesn't matter one iota. All that matters is the election results.

It'll be FFFGGreen for the next number of years and SF can do what they do best. Whinge, b1tch and moan and make unrealistic promises, while the adults deliver broadband and build hospitals.

That role seemed to be very attractive to Leo for a while there.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF growing their vote to a putative 35% surely means that you can no longer depend on that statement - 'that the vast majority would not vote for SF'?

Talk of ceilings on their vote is not tenable at the minute.

Its a poll, not an election.

If there was another election, SF would not be guaranteed 34% of the vote.
Indeed it would focus minds of those who cant stand them.

McMurphy

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Doesnt matter a sh1te what SF get in an opinion poll. Doesn't matter one iota. All that matters is the election results.

It'll be FFFGGreen for the next number of years and SF can do what they do best. Whinge, b1tch and moan and make unrealistic promises, while the adults deliver broadband and build hospitals.

And inevitable state enquiries that will follow.

I wouldn't be crowing too loudly about the most expensive children's hospital in the entire world, and the costs involved with a broadband network that the state won't own, and FGs BFF has his mits all over despite digicell corruption and the siteserv enquiry still to be completed.

Snow Garden

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Ha if you think SF will fire public servants you just proved you haven't a clue what they are on about.


Also they are very vague how all these changes they promise would be paid for, or did you not know that either.

You're a bit grumpy this morning.

I answered your question about a left wing goverrnment. I said I wanted a government that will do all that below. I wont be holding my breath.

I just want a government that is honourable, not corrupt, not self-serving, not wasteful, has vision, straight talking, works hard, fires crap senior public servants, admits mistakes, does the right thing not the vote getting thing, not cronyist....I could on.

After 20 years of voting FG, I went with the SDs on February 8th. What FG did and didn't do since 2011 disgusts me to the core. I'll make a list if you like.

You've got SF on the brain.

markodaly

SF are doing great, so why are they not in government?
They have the numbers, lets get on with it!
The people were promised cheap €67,000 houses, they must deliver on this now!

RandomName2

McMurphy wrote: »

It's a bizarre way of going on tbh.

"SF have zero interest in govt, they should be off talking with other party's instead of RTE"

*Insert numerous links to show they (SF) have been indulging in talks and meetings with all other party's outside of FFG/Lab**

STOP HARASSING AND HARANGUING ME WITH YOUR LACK OF MANNERS.

Rinse and repeat.

SF initially dismissed going into government with Fianna Fail or Fine Gael, moaning about chaaange.

Then they say 'we have to go into discussions with Fianna Fail or Fine Gael'.

Huge shock.

FF and FG say that they will uphold their election promises to not to go into government with the former paramilitary party with criminal connections and barely recognizes the legitimacy of Southern (ugh) Ireland.

SF gets into a snot and saying that this wasn't the chaaaaaange that the people voted for, despite the fact that 3/4s of the electorate didn't vote for them.

SF fanboys go on the offensive saying that you should get FF and FG out of government, while simultaneously complaining about FF or FG not getting into government with SF. It is well established that saying contradictory things comes naturally to SF.

J_1980

Whoever is in power, the next recession will be funny in Ireland. Tax base too narrow, welfare way too high. All parties manifestos are pure BS when it hits.


This country need a massive re-alignment of living standards. Some parts outside Dublin should be poorer than western Poland.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Its a poll, not an election.

If there was another election, SF would not be guaranteed 34% of the vote.
Indeed it would focus minds of those who cant stand them.

Were you not saying that before the actual election?

*Was it not you that had a 'large wedge' on the Shinners getting below 28 seats and disappeared after the result or was that Facehugger?

RandomName2

J_1980 wrote: »

Whoever is in power, the next recession will be funny in Ireland. Tax base too narrow, welfare way too high. All parties manifestos are pure BS when it hits.


This country need a massive re-alignment of living standards. Some parts outside Dublin should be poorer than western Poland.

What's the problem. Sinn Fein has had their budget costed, and they are fully satisfied that they can cover any expenses by taxing the intellectual property of Google and Apple.

RandomName2

RandomName2 wrote: »

SF initially dismissed going into government with Fianna Fail or Fine Gael, moaning about chaaange.

Then they say 'we have to go into discussions with Fianna Fail or Fine Gael'.

Huge shock.

FF and FG say that they will uphold their election promises to not to go into government with the former paramilitary party with criminal connections and barely recognizes the legitimacy of Southern (ugh) Ireland.

SF gets into a snot and saying that this wasn't the chaaaaaange that the people voted for, despite the fact that 3/4s of the electorate didn't vote for them.

SF fanboys go on the offensive saying that you should get FF and FG out of government, while simultaneously complaining about FF or FG not getting into government with SF. It is well established that saying contradictory things comes naturally to SF.

What does your rant have to do with what you quoted?

McMurphy

RandomName2 wrote: »

SF initially dismissed going into government with Fianna Fail or Fine Gael, moaning about chaaange.

Then they say 'we have to go into discussions with Fianna Fail or Fine Gael'.

Huge shock.

FF and FG say that they will uphold their election promises to not to go into government with the former paramilitary party with criminal connections and barely recognizes the legitimacy of Southern (ugh) Ireland.

SF gets into a snot and saying that this wasn't the chaaaaaange that the people voted for, despite the fact that 3/4s of the electorate didn't vote for them.

SF fanboys go on the offensive saying that you should get FF and FG out of government, while simultaneously complaining about FF or FG not getting into government with SF. It is well established that saying contradictory things comes naturally to SF.

The Pat Rabbite article you earlier posted might possibly have contained something which had any bearing on the post of mine you just quoted, I don't know because I didn't read it, but the above definitely has none.

Are you just typing stuff out now incoherently hoping some of it sticks or what?

RandomName2

Deleted User wrote: »

What does your rant have to do with what you quoted?

The bit about SF's discussions, or lack of them, in relation to forming a hypothetical government. Do you have anything to say on the matter?

McMurphy wrote: »

The Pat Rabbite article you earlier posted would possibly have contained something which had any bearing on the post of mine you just quoted, I don't know because I didn't read it, but the above has none.

It's true that SF have been open to discussions about forming a government. It is also true that most of what they have said has been posturing. I know that someone with as open a mind as yourself wouldn't read anything written by someone from Fianna Fail, or Labour, or Fine Gael, and probably a large number of Independents, but it was in reference to Sinn Fein posturing after the election, pretending it could form a government of the left.

It is currently posturing, saying that the people want chaaaaange, but recognizing that they are not in a powerful enough position to get what they want. They will be happy enough to hurl from the sidelines claiming that the will of the people is being overlooked.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Were you not saying that before the actual election?

*Was it not you that had a 'large wedge' on the Shinners getting below 28 seats and disappeared after the result or was that Facehugger?

Eh, no it was not me, but defame me away :pac:

Nice way of avoiding the point.
Remember when FF was on 32% in one poll before the GE? Ah, they were the days.

Its all in flux now, nothing is certain and no poll should be taken as gospel.

FrancieBrady

RandomName2 wrote: »

FF and FG say that they will uphold their election promises to not to go into government

Have to keep scotching this lie.


https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/martin-opens-the-door-to-coalition-with-sinn-fein-38941313.html

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fianna-f%C3%A1il-reaction-martin-opens-door-to-government-with-fg-or-sf-1.4167246

Michael was more than willing to 'keep his options open' and go back on his promise when he thought he was going to have a seat majority.

Why would you take his word when he is clearly going back on his promise not to go into coalition with FG?

RandomName2

RandomName2 wrote: »

The bit about SF's discussions, or lack of them, in relation to forming a hypothetical government. Do you have anything to say on the matter?

I already pointed out what I thought. That a poster made a mistake, went on the attack and refused to acknowledge that mistake. I think that's a wrong play from a political social media pov.

They have entered talks. The only parties they haven't entered talks with are FFG and Labour.

That's the facts.

McMurphy

markodaly wrote: »

SF are doing great, so why are they not in government?
They have the numbers, lets get on with it!
The people were promised cheap €67,000 houses, they must deliver on this now!

Despite you being corrected on this about two dozen times now, you seem to be back from a self imposed exile and have started to post about it again.

Bizarre.

smurgen

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Were you not saying that before the actual election?

*Was it not you that had a 'large wedge' on the Shinners getting below 28 seats and disappeared after the result or was that Facehugger?

He was also saying they'd get 13-15% at best lol.

FrancieBrady

markodaly wrote: »

Eh, no it was not me, but defame me away :pac:

Nice way of avoiding the point.
Remember when FF was on 32% in one poll before the GE? Ah, they were the days.

Its all in flux now, nothing is certain and no poll should be taken as gospel.

It would only be defamation if I said it was you...I asked you 'was it you?'

RandomName2

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Have to keep scotching this lie.


https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/martin-opens-the-door-to-coalition-with-sinn-fein-38941313.html

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fianna-f%C3%A1il-reaction-martin-opens-door-to-government-with-fg-or-sf-1.4167246

Michael was more than willing to 'keep his options open' and go back on his promise when he thought he was going to have a seat majority.

Why would you take his word when he is clearly going back on his promise not to go into coalition with FG?

Well it is a similar situation to Thuringia in Germany, with the question being whether the CDU will blink and go back on their word to go into government with the AfD (who they have sworn not to go into government with) or Die Linke (which would have traditionally been considered unthinkable). If they agree to going into government with the AfD their supporters who hate the AfD will be upset. However the AfD will be happy to see the place in the chaos of a hung parliament, claiming that it is not legitimate they be excluded from government.

It seems to be working. CDU supporters who cannot stomach the AfD are now backing Die Linke. We may get the same thing here. Most FG voters would feel the same way about SF as CDU supporters feel about the AfD. However, if FG won't get into bed with FF because it isn't open to losing power to its traditional rival, perhaps FG voters will flock to FF as the next best option.

We all know that SF doesn't want to be a junior coalition partner, and neither FF or FG (and probably not Greens or Labour) want to be seen as the party that let the Slab Murphies into power, so SF not getting into government suits all three (FF, FG, and SF) for the time being. The question is what will things be like 6 months from now?

smurgen wrote: »

He was also saying they'd get 13-15% at best lol.

If he had been talking about the local or European elections he would have been off between 3-6% in favor of SF.