Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! *read OP*

wakka12

2500 cases today in 46 countries, 24 countries recorded more than 5 new cases

fritzelly

owlbethere wrote: »

What does mutation mean?

Spanish flu mutated and came back to kill us

Generally viruses mutate to a weaker strain making them more persistent - better survivability in its host
If they mutate to a worse strain they normally incapacitate/kill their hosts faster than they can spread themselves

Kermit.de.frog

3rd case in New Zealand. This time related to someone who had traveled via Iran.

In New Zealand, the third person infected with coronavirus is a man 40s lives in Auckland. Close family members of his have recently returned from Iran.

“This third case of COVID-19 is classified as what we suspect is a case of family transmission. There is what appears to be a clear link with travel to Iran by a close family member,” the Ministry of Health said.

The man is now at home in self-isolation as he doesn’t require hospital care, nor does anyone else in the family home, who are self-isolating with him.

skimpydoo

ArchXStanton wrote: »

"On Wednesday Italian authorities reported around 1,300 patients were hospitalised because of the virus with around 300 in intensive care."

https://www.thelocal.it/20200302/should-you-be-concerned-about-the-coronavirus-in-italy

If we start getting numbers like Italy, we're b*loxed

I think we will, just wait and see how many new cases we have by Friday evening.

SafeSurfer

The Second Coning
by William Butler Yeats



Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

caveat emptor

Turtwig wrote: »

Please pleas stop posting this guys tweets. The virus is too dense to be airborne. It can be transmitted through sneezes or coughs but the range is limited. It cannot fly through the air in vapor.

This is a serious situation. Your sensationalist hysteria is not helping.

I'm fully aware it's serious. Don't bury your head in the sand or do. I don't give a .... Why do you think I'm posting here. "It'll be grand" is easy to say. Reading a scientific journal is not. Get real.

Here's the link. Seriously though. You please stop posting and learn how to click on links and read, in that order.

The journal of New England Medicine. Probably better than randomer on forum saying viruses are dense but I've no proof of this. Use your judgement.

Evidence of Airborne Transmission of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Virus


https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa032867

For those who can't click on links and read. Just read.
METHODS
We determined the distribution of the initial 187 cases of SARS in the Amoy Gardens housing complex in 2003 according to the date of onset and location of residence. We then studied the association between the location (building, floor, and direction the apartment unit faced) and the probability of infection using logistic regression. The spread of the airborne, virus-laden aerosols generated by the index patient was modeled with the use of airflow-dynamics studies, including studies performed with the use of computational fluid-dynamics and multizone modeling.
RESULTS
The curves of the epidemic suggested a common source of the outbreak. All but 5 patients lived in seven buildings (A to G), and the index patient and more than half the other patients with SARS (99 patients) lived in building E. Residents of the floors at the middle and upper levels in building E were at a significantly higher risk than residents on lower floors; this finding is consistent with a rising plume of contaminated warm air in the air shaft generated from a middle-level apartment unit. The risks for the different units matched the virus concentrations predicted with the use of multizone modeling. The distribution of risk in buildings B, C, and D corresponded well with the three-dimensional spread of virus-laden aerosols predicted with the use of computational fluid-dynamics modeling.
CONCLUSIONS
Airborne spread of the virus appears to explain this large community outbreak of SARS, and future efforts at prevention and control must take into consideration the potential for airborne spread of this virus.

NIMAN

ArchXStanton wrote: »

"On Wednesday Italian authorities reported around 1,300 patients were hospitalised because of the virus with around 300 in intensive care."

https://www.thelocal.it/20200302/should-you-be-concerned-about-the-coronavirus-in-italy

If we start getting numbers like Italy, we're b*loxed

How come Italy has seen such huge growth in numbers, and deaths, so quickly?

cnocbui

Turtwig wrote: »

Please pleas stop posting this guys tweets. The virus is too dense to be airborne. It can be transmitted through sneezes or coughs but the range is limited. It cannot fly through the air in vapor.

This is a serious situation. Your sensationalist hysteria is not helping.

Please provide a source for your claim the virus is too dense to be airborne.

How the virus travels in the air

Donald Milton, MD, a professor of environmental health at the University of Maryland, helped prove via the use of his Gesundheit machine that influenza could be spread via aerosol transmission. He said he is in contact with colleagues in Singapore who are attempting to study the transmission of the COVID-19 viruses, which are often called nCoV, for novel coronavirus.

Though Chinese officials said earlier this week that they believe the coronavirus is transmitted only via droplets, implying they do not believe airborne or contact transmission plays a role, Milton said that statement is likely rooted in fear, not science.

"To me this sounds like someone trying to deal with panic, because people panic when they hear airborne transmission and long-distance transmission," he said. He said there has been scientific evidence of aerosol transmission of MERS-CoV (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus), so it is likely possible for this novel coronavirus, as well.

Milton cautions that the difference between aerosol and droplet transmission is largely in name only. Respiratory droplets, emitted with a sneeze or a cough, are commonly thought to land within 6 feet of patients and are too large to be buoyant on air currents. Respiratory aerosols are droplets too, Milton said, but smaller and light enough to travel farther.

"You cannot tell the difference epidemiologically between something aerosol transmitted by weak sources and large droplet spray," said Milton. "They behave so similar, it's very hard to pick up the difference."

He said he suspects the capability of long-distance transmission with COVID-19 will be connected to source strength, or how symptomatic a person is.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/unmasked-experts-explain-necessary-respiratory-protection-covid-19

fritzelly

caveat emptor wrote: »

I'm fully aware it's serious. Don't bury your head in the sand or do. I don't give a .... Why do you think I'm posting here. "It'll be grand" is easy to say. Reading a scientific journal is not. Get real.

Why do you keep posting this guys tweets when all the info he is using is nothing to do with this strain of virus

Are you Eric?

cnocbui

tuxy wrote: »

Has it been confirmed that the virus has mutated?

Yes. Chinese Scientists have identified two strains: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html

NIMAN

cameramonkey wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/29/to-hell-and-back-my-three-weeks-suffering-from-coronavirus

Perhaps that guy was a bit of a drama queen?

It was then that I realised I needed some spiritual support or maybe I couldn’t make it. So I watched my favourite anime show and seeing their normal, happy lives, I thought I may have to say goodbye to this life forever. But watching the show, the heroine had troubles in the first half, but she finally made it and succeeded in her career.

I'm sure the effects are different for everyone thats got it, maybe he had it bad!

owlbethere

fritzelly wrote: »

Spanish flu mutated and came back to kill us

Generally viruses mutate to a weaker strain making them more persistent - better survivability in its host
If they mutate to a worse strain they normally incapacitate/kill their hosts faster than they can spread themselves

Sh1t

tuxy

I've got the message now, I appreciate all the links to sources.

Kermit.de.frog

Health Service Executive chief executive Paul Reid has warned of a “potentially unprecedented” situation for the health service, as Ireland’s first cluster of coronavirus cases was confirmed last night.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/cluster-of-coronavirus-cases-in-west-brings-state-total-to-six-1.4193134?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fhealth%2Fcluster-of-coronavirus-cases-in-west-brings-state-total-to-six-1.4193134

cnocbui

owlbethere wrote: »

God, they had a terrible time with fires and heavy smog. Now this virus can damage the lungs ☹️.

They had to perform a lung transplant on a patient in China. Must be a nightmare case to manage given the immuno-suppressants required.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235377077605617667

old_aussie

Iran to spread virus to entire country!!! WTF

A country that has become one of the new hotspots for the coronavirus outbreak is proposing sending 300,000 military members door-to-door in an effort to stop the spread.

Iran has recorded 77 deaths - the deadliest outbreak outside China - to become one of the emerging hotspots for the virus.

Twenty-three members of Iran’s Parliament and the head of the country’s emergency services were reported infected.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/uncharted-territory-coronavirus-death-toll-rises-across-the-globe-as-more-countries-record-cases/news-story/ff192d42026554a38ab5117716e0f89e

wakka12

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/cluster-of-coronavirus-cases-in-west-brings-state-total-to-six-1.4193134?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fhealth%2Fcluster-of-coronavirus-cases-in-west-brings-state-total-to-six-1.4193134

Well that didnt take long, 48 hours ago everyone was taking HSE's 'Ireland is low risk' reassurance advice as immutable

BloodBath

caveat emptor wrote: »

Are you really calling an epidemiologist a moron for posting a link to a peer reviewed scientific journal?

Where's your link?

Yes I am. Have a look at the links. 1 is speculation about transmission from fecal matter from an unproven study with 4 people tested and more speculation from a SARS case. Far from confirmed.

The other about the virus living for over a week also from sars/mers studies and no mention that it was a massive concentration/viral load of it.

All used to generate sensational clickbait headlines. At least he used a caveat in 1 of them.

Ursabear

Hi, are the current stats that it has a 3.4 % mortality it is it closer to 6%? Sorry if ppl have already answered this

owlbethere

cnocbui wrote: »

They had to perform a lung transplant on a patient in China. Must be a nightmare case to manage given the immuno-suppressants required.

I'm afraid. I'm afraid for Australia because of their recent difficulties with fires.

Exclamation Marc

ArchXStanton wrote: »

"On Wednesday Italian authorities reported around 1,300 patients were hospitalised because of the virus with around 300 in intensive care."

https://www.thelocal.it/20200302/should-you-be-concerned-about-the-coronavirus-in-italy

If we start getting numbers like Italy, we're b*loxed

Italy has 60m people. We have 4.8m. Perspective.

ceadaoin.

I would take any reports about the virus definitely causing lung damage, transferring to pets, reoccurring, causing infertility etc with a grain of salt. It's simply too early to be able to conclude any of these things in a reliable way. Dont believe everything you read.

The mortality rate cant be reliably calculated at this stage.

100+ cases in the US means theres likely thousands infected. A handful in ireland probably means dozens or more people potentially spreading it unknowingly. Stopping flights will do nothing at this stage.

wakka12

Ursabear wrote: »

Hi, are the current stats that it has a 3.4 % mortality it is it closer to 6%? Sorry if ppl have already answered this

Nobody seems to know if it is 0.1% or 3.4%. Doesnt really seem to be any clearer on it 2 months on

cnocbui

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/sa_nightingale/status/1235376710331363334

Yeh see Turkey is potentially another ticking bomb. The country must be riddled yet no cases.

Erdogan does not want bad news made public.

Erdogan rhymes with Orban. Coincidence - I think not!

Another tough-guy right wing throwback to Stalin who miraculously rules a country yet untouched. No cases in Hungary, no siree, not on my watch.

fritzelly

Ursabear wrote: »

Hi, are the current stats that it has a 3.4 % mortality it is it closer to 6%? Sorry if ppl have already answered this

Ask again in about 10 months then we should know - anything else is a guesstimate with some unprecedented lockdowns

caveat emptor

fritzelly wrote: »

Why do you keep posting this guys tweets when all the info he is using is nothing to do with this strain of virus

Are you Eric?

I'll bite but then I have to go to bed :eek:

You are right it is a different virus but it is very very similar and we can learn from something that is very similar.

"SARS-CoV-2 shares a highly similar gene sequence and behavior pattern with SARS-CoV "

https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/12/2/244/pdf

Here's a table of comparison from someone who actually understands this ****. Feel free to play spot the difference. You might be there a while though.

No I'm not Eric. Good night

owlbethere

ceadaoin. wrote: »

I would take any reports about the virus definitely causing lung damage, transferring to pets, reoccurring, causing infertility etc with a grain of salt. It's simply too early to be able to conclude any of these things in a reliable way. Dont believe everything you read.

The mortality rate cant be reliably calculated at this stage.

100+ cases in the US means theres likely thousands infected. A handful in ireland probably means dozens or more people potentially spreading it unknowingly. Stopping flights will do nothing at this stage.

Thanks.

America is another place where the sh1t will hit that fan in a big way there. With health insurance, work/sick leave policies.

LaFuton

cnocbui wrote: »

Erdogan rhymes with Orban. Coincidence - I think not!

Another tough-guy right wing throwback to Stalin who miraculously rules a country yet untouched. No cases in Hungary, no siree, not on my watch.

u wrong sir
orban = good man
erdogan = bad man

please read more thank you

skimpydoo

cnocbui wrote: »

Erdogan rhymes with Orban. Coincidence - I think not!

Another tough-guy right wing throwback to Stalin who miraculously rules a country yet untouched. No cases in Hungary, no siree, not on my watch.

Ursabear

https://www.worldometers.info › cor...
Web results
Coronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts - Worldometer I have no idea of the repute of this site but the figures from Iran and Italy are a bit worrying. I know a lot of mild cases or asymptomatic cases go unreported so skew the figures higher in terms of mortality but also adversely lower in terms of spread . Anyway I am sure there are many more ppl on here with scientific backgrounds which I do not have that can ease my worry.

fritzelly

caveat emptor wrote: »

I'll bite but then I have to go to bed :eek:

You are right it is a different virus but it is very very similar and we can learn from something that is very similar.

]

All that table shows is how different the two are - may as well compare it to a common cold coronavirus if it suits your agenda

One common denominator - China

cnocbui

wakka12 wrote: »

Nobody seems to know if it is 0.1% or 3.4%. Doesnt really seem to be any clearer on it 2 months on

Worldmeters figures agree with the WHO, it's a 3.4% mortality rate.

spookwoman

Ursabear wrote: »

https://www.worldometers.info › cor...
Web results
Coronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts - Worldometer I have no idea of the repute of this site but the figures from Iran and Italy are a bit worrying. I know a lot of mild cases or asymptomatic cases go unreported so skew the figures higher in terms of mortality but also adversely lower in terms of spread . Anyway I am sure there are many more ppl on here with scientific backgrounds which I do not have that can ease my worry.

the totals were matching u earlier with the Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE site which is offline at the moment.

LaFuton

mmmm creamy

wakka12

cnocbui wrote: »

Worldmeters figures agree with the WHO, it's a 3.4% mortality rate.

I am aware of that..but rather I think it is WHO making that assumption based on stats by worldometer rather than the other way around. I dont think WHO have taken into account mild cases, healthcare variation by region, demographics of victims, to come to a final figure of 3.4%

caveat emptor

wakka12 wrote: »

Nobody seems to know if it is 0.1% or 3.4%. Doesnt really seem to be any clearer on it 2 months on

From WHO press conference 2nd. March Mike Ryan who is Irish Responding to questions.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/who-audio-emergencies-coronavirus-press-conference-final-02mar2020.pdf?sfvrsn=cf76053d_2

"we do know that 80% of those that are infected will have mild disease and recover. We do know that there’s approximately 15% that will have severe and another 4% or 5% that will be critical, which will require oxygen support."

"The DG will speak to the issue of what you mentioned regarding this outbreak or this epidemic being like flu or not like flu or whatever. It’s a difficult position for any individual or organisation or anyone to be in because if you say, we have a disease for which we don’t know the full transmission dynamics, which on the face of it has a case fatality of 2% or possibly more in certain circumstances, we’re up to... in some cases, 10% of people with underlying conditions can die who present clinically. Then, if someone is trying to tell me, we shouldn’t be trying to stop that, we should just accept that as normal business, then I don’t know why I’m doing this job, frankly.
"

MR I believe everyone is still very much committed to containment. I would hate to think that countries in Europe who currently have no cases are now moving to mitigation. They will find that quite difficult to explain to their citizens right now. So I do believe that when we speak at a regional level, it’s very important that we’re not saying that containment has no place in this. We can see the statement and see what it says. There is a point in any epidemic where you believe you can no longer contain the virus like if it was influenza and you have to shift your resources to saving lives, but in doing that, you’re accepting that you can no longer affect the course of the disease. You can no longer change the shape of the epidemic and you’re purely moving in that sense to save as many lives as you can.
Now, WHO does not believe that we’re there yet based on what the director-general has presented to you today. We can have that argument. We can sit around the coffee tables all week long and for the next month and we can talk about who’s right and we can talk about who’s wrong or we can get on with it. That’s the question. History will tell who was right or who was wrong. The real question is, we can’t miss this opportunity to save lives and we can’t miss this opportunity to protect our health systems. So let’s just get on with it."

fritzelly

caveat emptor wrote: »

From WHO press conference 2nd. March Mike Ryan who is Irish Responding to questions.

Do you actually understand what you keep posting or just look for soundbites in what's posted online?

caveat emptor

BloodBath wrote: »

Yes I am. Have a look at the links. 1 is speculation about transmission from fecal matter from an unproven study with 4 people tested and more speculation from a SARS case. Far from confirmed.

The other about the virus living for over a week also from sars/mers studies and no mention that it was a massive concentration/viral load of it.

All used to generate sensational clickbait headlines. At least he used a caveat in 1 of them.

Sorry yeah SARS is totally different best wait til everyone dies so we can truly know instead of going with science/research likely scenarios based on evidence.

Sorry if stupid question. Is it really that different to SARS bearing mind both are coronavirus / share 80% of their genome. Likely originated in bats (not cross over). Cause respiratory disease. Happy to slearn something new but I'd say prudent to consider and worth erring on side of caution given the transmission dynamics we are seeing.

spookwoman

wakka12 wrote: »

I am aware of that..but rather I think it is WHO making that assumption based on stats by worldometer rather than the other way around. I dont think WHO have taken into account mild cases, healthcare variation by region, demographics of victims, to come to a final figure of 3.4%

Just watching CNN and they said each country is doing their own thing. Some countries are testing lots eg Korea and that's why number are so high and probably who their death numbers are low because of the testing.
Now look at the states people can't afford to be tested plus they want to create their own test.
Here we don't know how many are infected because they are not testing until someone presents themselves.

A lot of people will just show the usual flu symptoms and will probably just say as it's the flu.

caveat emptor

fritzelly wrote: »

Do you actually understand what you keep posting or just look for soundbites in what's posted online?

It's a transcript and I'm helping out those who don't like to click links. You know you can open a new tab, then close once finished?

BloodBath

Ursabear wrote: »

Hi, are the current stats that it has a 3.4 % mortality it is it closer to 6%? Sorry if ppl have already answered this

By the time this is over and reasonable estimates can be made it will be well below 1%.

Death rate starts high in every region and drops over time as deaths happen and are confirmed quicker than recoveries.

Death rate was 40% in China at 1 point, now 1.5% total. As low as 0.5% in some regions outside of Wuhan. Hubei inflates the total to 1.5% as it was the epicentre of the outbreak and medical services were overwhelmed.

It's gone back up because of high starting death rates in other countries which will also drop over time as others recover.

There will then be another large drop when estimates are made for non confirmed cases that will push it below 1% imo.

It won't stop the media or people in here using overblown numbers though.

fritzelly

caveat emptor wrote: »

Sorry if stupid question. Is it really that different to SARS bearing mind both are coronavirus / share 80% of their genome. Likely originated in baths. Cause respiratory disease. Happy to slearn something new but I'd say prudent to consider and worth erring on side of caution given the transmission dynamics we are seeing.

Why not compare it to a coronavirus based common cold - no have to go for worst case scenario

fritzelly

caveat emptor wrote: »

It's a transcript and I'm helping out those who don't like to click links. You know you can open a new tab, then close once finished?

Confirmed you didn't bother reading it

spookwoman

jOHN Hopkins back up https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

caveat emptor

fritzelly wrote: »

Why not compare it to a coronavirus based common cold - no have to go for worst case scenario

You got me on my spelling. I know intermittent hosts in the table but we don't know what that was in case of sars2. Both are present in bats. Either way

Is it bad?

Yes

Will people die?

Probably

Are we prepared?

Probably not.

Feel free to add a point? Something more than you made a typo at 3 in the morning (I'm using maths to round up before you attack me, check it out, sometimes it's ok to do that. Here's the link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rounding)

BLIZZARD7

BloodBath wrote: »

By the time this is over and reasonable estimates can be made it will be well below 1%.

Death rate starts high in every region and drops over time as deaths happen and are confirmed quicker than recoveries.

Death rate was 40% in China at 1 point, now 1.5% total. As low as 0.5% in some regions outside of Wuhan. Hubei inflates the total to 1.5% as it was the epicentre of the outbreak and medical services were overwhelmed.

It's gone back up because of high starting death rates in other countries which will also drop over time as others recover.

There will then be another large drop when estimates are made for non confirmed cases that will push it below 1% imo.

It won't stop the media or people in here using overblown numbers though.

Eh so where are you getting these numbers from? Going by worldometers or BNO China currently has a 3.74% Mortality rate. Your 1.5% is pure fake news.

ceadaoin.

owlbethere wrote: »

Thanks.

America is another place where the sh1t will hit that fan in a big way there. With health insurance, work/sick leave policies.

US treatment and facilities are top notch though, if you can afford it. People without insurance arent refused (emergency) treatment, they are billed afterwards. It's possible that they may waive treatment fees, it's something that is being discussed apparently. They know it is in the interest of public health.

I'm in the US. We pay a lot for insurance but even then I'd still expect to have to pay a few thousand out of pocket if I was unfortunate enough to get very sick because of this. I wouldn't begrudge uninsured not having to pay though because in the long run it benefits everyone not to have sick people walking around.

NegativeCreep

Does Russia really only have 2 cases or are they just not testing?

BloodBath

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Eh so where are you getting these numbers from? Going by worldometers or BNO China currently has a 3.74% Mortality rate. Your 1.5% is pure fake news.

Sorry my bad, I was reading 1 of the numbers outside of Hubei, but the rest still applies. The trend for death rate is still downward.