Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

NeitherJohn

Aye, lashing at the Lough now.

igCorcaigh

So I just learned recently that:

daytime heating =>
convection =>
it's always freezing up there! =>
hail, which jiggles around =>
falls down, loses electrons? =>
potential difference in electrical charge builds => sudden movement of charge (holes?) =
lightning?

Sure I'm wrong there, and a lot of other factors that I don't understand like CAPE, but it's a start for me

giveitholly

What a couple of days it has been for thunderstorms in Ireland and more to come

zisdead

http://www.estofex.org/

Estofex going for 50% chance of lightning within 40km of any point over most of Leinster Tue 16. Clondalkin Looks right in the firing line

lolie

giveitholly wrote: »

What a couple of days it has been for thunderstorms in Ireland and more to come

Yeah not to shabby alright

Gonzo

latest GFS has a proper heatwave for central and southeastern England later next week followed by a breakdown. This probably won't verify but that's quite a thunderstorm risk for England next Thursday. Parts of Leinster getting a slight bit of action too.

redsteveireland

Banner fights back wrote: »

It was horrendous but much needed rain did fall which will please the farmers in the Banner county. Between half six and close to 8 o clock I counted over 20 flashes of lightening.

In Ennis where I live the rain was not the main story at all. I’d say around 15 mm did fall. But the lightening was the main feature. Jeez it was the most spectacular spectacle that I’ve ever witnessed in all my life time here in Clare’s county town. It was so glazing and not even the Sydney opera house new year firework celebrations would come close to that hour and a half period that will live long in my memory.

Don’t know about the story regarding power outrages here but certainly a significant weather event did take place here in Clare if the both the satellite and rainfall and lightening radars are to be believed.

On a separate note I really continue to enjoy this thread. Certainly one of or if not the best threads on boards. Keep up the great work. In particular the knowledge of some posters is most impressive. Brilliant stuff.

Sounds like you had a great time, any chance you would have even just 10 or 15 seconds from that hour and a half to share with us?

KingdomRushed

Met Eireann have no warnings in place today as they did the last two mornings. Even at this time. Perhaps they don't see the same risk now?

Mortelaro

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Met Eireann have no warnings in place today as they did the last two mornings. Even at this time. Perhaps they don't see the same risk now?

They won't have had their daily meeting on this today yet
I'd expect a yellow for parts of east and south leinster today and probably parts of munster

pad199207

Status yellow - Thunder warning for Leinster, Tipperary and Waterford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Thunderstorms with hail expected again today mainly in parts of east Munster and Leinster giving severe downpours in places with some surface flooding.

Valid: 07:00 Tuesday 16/06/2020 to 21:00 Tuesday 16/06/2020

Issued: 07:00 Tuesday 16/06/2020

Scrabbel

Interesting last piece today from convectiveweather.

“ However, some elevated shower and thunderstorm activity may persist, or actually increase, across SW Scotland, the Irish Sea and into eastern Ireland through Tuesday night into early Wednesday as the aforementioned shortwave over England/Wales swings westwards through the night”

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-06-16

pad199207

Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 16 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 17 Jun 2020

ISSUED 06:56 UTC Tue 16 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Little change is expected on Tuesday, with a broad upper trough covering Britain and Ireland gradually extending southwards across France. This maintains an unstable airmass, with cool air aloft atop warm, moist low-levels (surface dewpoints of 12-16C). Overall, shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to be more widespread than the past few days.

In a remarkably similar fashion to Monday, elevated convection (showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm) may be ongoing over the NW Midlands / N Wales on Tuesday morning courtesy of a minor shortwave, but this will relax to the west with time. Otherwise, diurnal heating will eventually yield 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE, with convergence zones and orographic forcing providing the primary triggers for deep convection to develop, at least initially. Storm motion will be very slow, generally 10-15mph to the NW across Britain and W or SW over Ireland - this brings the risk of localised flash flooding given high moisture content and prolonged downpours. Bulk shear will be weaker than on Monday, generally greatest around midday at 20-25kts, reducing to 15-20kts by evening. Hence showers and storms will tend to pulse, although may become a little organised for a time during the midday/early afternoon period. The most intense cells may produce hail up to 1.5cm in diameter.

Towards late afternoon another shortwave will drift northwards across Wales / Midlands / East Anglia / London and this may encourage more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity that may persist well into the evening hours, especially focussed near pre-existing boundaries. Low-level vorticity near such boundaries may be ingested into updrafts to bring the potential for a few funnel clouds or a weak tornado.

Showers and thunderstorms could persist until late evening in some areas, but will generally become weaker as nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer occurs later in the day. However, some elevated shower and thunderstorm activity may persist, or actually increase, across SW Scotland, the Irish Sea and into E / NE Ireland through Tuesday night into early Wednesday as the aforementioned shortwave over England/Wales swings westwards through the night. Some showery rain may also push from France towards S / SE England overnight, which could produce a few isolated lightning strikes.

Captain_Crash

Taken from the boards weather forecast page... Credit to M.T Cranium

"There could be a few scattered showers in the morning, but heavier showers and thunderstorms will develop in eastern and central counties by afternoon, persisting well into the evening once formed. Central Leinster from Dublin west into Kildare and west Wicklow, Laois and Carlow may see some of the heavier activity today"

Here's hoping

Little snowy old me

Very grey gloomy morning in West Dublin. Unless sunshine breaks out, where will the heating come from to build up these thunderstorms later?

Reckless Abandonment

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Very grey gloomy morning in West Dublin. Unless sunshine breaks out, where will the heating come from to build up these thunderstorms later?

Satellite is showing low cloud starting to clear.

Kermit.de.frog

The lower layer has a notable just west of northerly wind direction but still at high elevation it's easterly, be interesting to see the dynamic for storm formation evolve toward early afternoon.

Dublin has a chance and with increasing activity getting in to the Irish sea unlike recent days I have some hope for today.

Fingers crossed.

Gonzo

this morning certainly doesn't get my hopes up too much, wasn't expecting it to be so cool, damp and drizzly, Hopefully this burns off soon enough.

I don't mind not getting any thunderstorms today but I would like some spells of warm sunshine breaking out over the next few hours.

TheMilkyPirate

Not a cloud in the sky here in Wexford, beautiful all morning. Hoping we see some action today

Larbre34

Regardless I'd say the 20-30 km deep coastal will be a long shot. Anywhere with a bit of uplift could work out nicely, Carlow, Kilkenny, North Wexford, Waterford Tipp border maybe Louth

Gonzo

models have upgraded this afternoons risk with areas from Louth to waterford, maybe east Cork most at risk today.

SleetAndSnow

Here's to hoping we see something in cork city today, above image is giving me a bit if hope that we might even hear distant rumbles.

Cloudy and humid this morning in cork city.

Mortelaro

Lots of towers going up in south Wicklow now
But they are having trouble with a high cloud ceiling north of here spreading in from Dublin direction
Heres one of them

DOCARCH

Cloud over much of Leinster (away from the SE) would want to start thinning/clearing soon to get things going!

sweet_trip

Very foggy this morning in South Kilkenny.
Currently in South tipp and it's thick overcast all morning. No visible plumes etc.
You wouldn't have think it's be a day for thunderstorms at all judging by the clouds.

Reversal

Mortelaro wrote: »

Lots of towers going up in south Wicklow now
But they are having trouble with a high cloud ceiling north of here spreading in from Dublin direction
Heres one of them

Radar showing some small but lively cells over the mountains getting going now.

Mortelaro

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1272834912924598272?s=19

pad199207

Cloud and murk could be a ‘Loaded Gun’ scenario with all the moisture building

Storm 10

One thing I spotted yesterday in Galway before the storm hit was the movement of the cloud towers, you could actually see the cloud moving and bubbling as it got bigger, I have only seen that before in Spain before a big storm.

Say my name

Radar showing returns of showers moving from Wales across the Irish sea.
There's also the one already built up over Wicklow.
Forecast is still spot on.

Plenty of cumulus cloud moving slowly in north wexford.

Mortelaro

I can see a convergence zone of towers building now all the way from mount leinster up to the Wicklow mountains
Some very floridaesque