Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

Seven Septs

Little snowy old me wrote: »

I think we can forget about thunderstorms tonight. Such a shame. Once the unsettled conditions later this week and the European monsoon from the Atlantic takes over in the next few days, we probably won't get any set up such as the one we've had for the last few days. Very depressing. I sense a washout for July and August.

Can I have your telephone number? I think a night out with you would be a tonic once the pubs open up. I'm always overwhelmed by your enthusiasm and positivity

Cantona's Collars

Only getting to post now but lot's of premises in Enniscorthy flooded earlier tonight due to the biblical rainfall.
The fire brigade had to pump out several places.

Rougies

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Development now north of Angelsey, could get interesting later on.

This is what I have been waiting to see the last couple of days.

Getting interesting alright!

pad199207

I wonder do we have lift off in the Irish Sea

Reversal

Pre existing cells over Dublin/Kildare/N Wicklow being given a boost now too?

Kermit.de.frog

Bubbling up nicely in the Irish sea now with very heavy rain to come ashore over the coming hours but will sparks develop? Could happen, let's wait and see.

Little snowy old me

Seven Septs wrote: »

Can I have your telephone number? I think a night out with you would be a tonic once the pubs open up. I'm always overwhelmed by your enthusiasm and positivity

I admit, that was a bit doom and gloom, even for me.

Captain_Crash

fleet_admiral wrote: »

Dry as a bone in my part of d6

Maybe I got the edge of it, I’m on the “border” with D4 haha... who we all know don’t get bad weather lol

JCX BXC

When it's not snow is the Irish sea ever useful?

pad199207

JCX BXC wrote: »

When it's not snow is the Irish sea ever useful?

It was for Wexford on Saturday Night

Calibos

Lashing now in Bray as we catch the edge of a 'cell'. No T&L yet though. See a bigger cell in the middle of the Irish Sea on a direct track towards Bray too. (EDIT-Stopped only lasted 5 minutes)

Hope all this rain today in the Wicklow mountains is topping up the Roundwood and Blessington Resevoirs!!

pad199207

Relentless heavy rain in Naas.

Calibos

Really heavy now in Bray and looks like this will last a lot longer than the earlier quick shower. Still no T&L though.

sryanbruen

Well at least finally some proper rain in Dublin 13, where was this last week.

jimmynokia

Not a spark last night. Hopefully today might be better

esposito

Very heavy rain in D9 but no thunder and lightning which is disappointing. Maybe it will happen later today.

Gaoth Laidir

Chucking it down now. Drought officially over in the greater Dublin region. The lightning drought, however, lives on for me. All I saw this past week was one distant flash. Still, a lot of areas have done very well. I can't remember such a prolonged thundery period in Ireland.

M.T. Cranium

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Does anyone think that the synoptics on Thursday look a little like those of July 1985? I know the upper dynamics are different, but like what is forecast for Thursday, July 1985 saw a slack low develop over the Celtic sea and move northwards along with its embedded frontal zones.

I can see the potential for localized flooding over the next two days in parts of eastern and central Ireland, eventually Connacht will be included. Maybe you could remind us where the heaviest rain fell in July 1985, was that a Dublin event? This may spread out further to the west but as you say the dynamics look powerful. If there are warm sunny spells in Britain that might send along well-developed cb's along this conveyor belt and you probably noticed the new development in the Channel heading northwest, that could be seeding developments for Thursday in Ireland (after crossing southern England and south Wales).

My concern is not all for tomorrow either, today has quite a bit of potential for localized flooding.

PukkaStukka

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Maybe you could remind us where the heaviest rain fell in July 1985, was that a Dublin event?

Details of heaviest rainfall location and quantities from the July '85 event are here

https://www.met.ie/cms/assets/uploads/2017/08/July1985_Thunderstorm.pdf

Spencer Brown

Met.ie has lightning symbols for my town (Midleton, Co. Cork) from 5pm - 12am today.

I didn't think we were getting any storms today?

Oneiric 3

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Maybe you could remind us where the heaviest rain fell in July 1985, was that a Dublin event? .

I don't know the stats off hand MT, but I think the NE half of Ireland bore the brunt of that event in general. Reanalysis rainfall and pressure pattern for 06z on the 26th of that infamous month:

Storm 10

The downside to these Thunder Storms thankfully no one injured

https://news.sky.com/story/house-struck-by-lightning-as-thunderstorms-and-flash-flooding-hit-parts-of-uk-12008512

Gonzo

some very heavy rain here since 7pm yesterday evening on and off all through the night and a deluge this morning. No thunder or lightning at any stage. Only low risk of thunder from today. I'm still waiting for a major storm since July 1985!

pad199207

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Leitrim, Roscommon, Sligo, Tipperary and Waterford

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur in places during the period. While some areas will miss the showers where they do occur there will be some torrential downpours, localised flooding and hazardous driving conditions.

A more prolonged and widespread period of heavy rain will occur later on Thursday.

Valid: 12:00 Wednesday 17/06/2020 to 03:00 Friday 19/06/2020

Issued: 11:00 Wednesday 17/06/2020

Darwin

Still complete drought conditions here (SW Laois), but looks like tomorrow will finally put an end to it.

highdef

Gonzo wrote: »

some very heavy rain here since 7pm yesterday evening on and off all through the night and a deluge this morning. No thunder or lightning at any stage.

And not too far to your south west, it stayed dry until after 7am this morning!!!

Calibos

While there is a Yellow warning in place for Leinster today the Met Eireann website is forecasting no rain for Bray other than 0.1mm at 4pm. Is this a case where today will be more like early yesterday where Orographic lift of the Wicklow mountains will be required for the Thundery Torrential showers and thus like early yesterday, Bray might be sunny and dry as a bone while the Leinster counties to the west of the Wicklow mountains are actually the ones that need to worry about the Yellow Warning.

In short, is it safe for me to BBQ me dinner in Bray today about 6pm ??

Larbre34

The yellow warning for downpours is in place until Friday, ME definitely covering the field there. I can only assume that any coastal locations are not given much rain in the forecast because the setup is for convection to occur inland, in the right circumstances.

Hard to know where we are now. MT was looking at high instability in his forecast this morning, with resultant torrential downpours. Met É as we've seen are saying, 'ah yeah, could lash anywhere east of the Shannon and if you're unlucky enough to have a cellar you might have some mucking out to do.

But right now its ~15C in greater Dublin, its overcast so that there is little heating up going on. There are also no significant radar returns. However, there is a plume moving rapidly north west through Britain from France that looks to be bringing instability to the south Irish Sea. If we see any action is it likely to be in the 5-9pm range?

spookwoman

Waterford is just grey, muggy with some showers and hearing no rumbles.

Cantona's Collars

Last night in Enniscorthy,one of the premises affected by the torrential rain.

https://twitter.com/Wexford2day/status/1273011136162643969