Should Ireland and the rest of Europe take in more migrants based in Turkey?

alastair

zom wrote: »

Are you trying to be sarcastic?



https://www.politico.eu/article/danish-frontex-boat-refused-order-to-push-back-rescued-migrants-report/

That’s a different operation - they aren’t mandated to stop any refugees. The Frontex rapid border intervention wasn’t requested until this week.

zom

alastair wrote: »

That’s a different operation - they aren’t mandated to stop any refugees. .

Hardly any help to Greeks then...

alastair

zom wrote: »

Hardly any help to Greeks then...

They were helping the Greeks on a number of fronts - but the primary objective was to stop people dying in the sea. It always was.

Operation Poseidon supports Greece with border surveillance, saving lives at sea, registration and identification capacities, as well as combatting cross-border crime.

Operation Poseidon Sea is increasingly becoming a multipurpose operation covering a number of aspects of cross border crime including smuggling of illegal substances, weapons, detection of forged documents and many others. It also covers several coast guard functions such as search and rescue, detection of illegal fishing and maritime pollution.

Lefty Bicek

alastair wrote: »

Where’s this spike then?

There has most certainly been a spike. It's actually evident in your graph, but we needn't rely on that.

Let's take a look at your own source - hpsc.ie -, the 2018 HIV final report.

The rate of HIV diagnosis among those born outside Ireland has increased substantially since 2011 (from 18.4 per 100,000 in 2011 to 45.7 per 100,000 in 2018).

From 18.4 to 45.7, is a rate of increase of 248%. In that timeframe, a compounded rate of increase of ~12%.

Other nuggets...

42% of HIV diagnoses were in people who had a previous HIV diagnosis abroad.

In 2018, 21% (n=109) of people diagnosed with HIV were born in Ireland, 71% (n=370)
were born outside Ireland and 8% (n=44) had no information on country of birth reported. Of
those not born in Ireland, 36% were born in Latin America and Caribbean, 34% in subSaharan Africa, 11% in Western Europe and 9% in Central and Eastern Europe.
The rate of HIV diagnosis among those born in Ireland has decreased in recent years from
4.2 per 100,000 in 2015 to 3.0 per 100,000 in 2018 (see Figure 8). The rate among those
born outside Ireland has increased substantially since 2011 (from 18.4 per 100,000 in 2011
to 45.7 per 100,000 in 2018). In particular, the number of diagnoses among those born in
Latin America and Caribbean has increased in recent years (from 22 in 2011 to 131 in
2018).

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/hivandaids/hivdataandreports/HIV_2018_final.pdf


So, emphatically a spike. Contrary to your usual evasive bluffing.

Read your own sources, eh ?

alastair

Lefty Bicek wrote: »

There has most certainly been a spike. It's actually evident in your graph, but we needn't rely on that.

Let's take a look at your own source - hpsc.ie -, the 2018 HIV final report.



From 18.4 to 45.7, is a rate of increase of 248%. In that timeframe, a compounded rate of increase of ~12%.

Other nuggets...





https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/hivandaids/hivdataandreports/HIV_2018_final.pdf


So, emphatically a spike. Contrary to your usual evasive bluffing.

Read your own sources, eh ?

Nope - there is no spike whatsoever.
There’s a greater number of foreign-born amongst a percentage that hasn’t changed much from the start of that graph. That’s all.

Dude89

It was literally on the news the other day that Syrians have more rights and entitlements in Turkey hence the reason the majority at the Greek border are not even Syrian.

alastair

Dude89 wrote: »

It was literally on the news the other day that Syrians have more rights and entitlements in Turkey hence the reason the majority at the Greek border are not even Syrian.

Syrians in Turkey seem to be having a great old time alright.

https://observers.france24.com/en/20200304-racism-syrian-turkey-violence-soldier-die-syria

Cordell

Cordell wrote: »

Except for the architecture of the mosques (and of course the call to prayer) how is any of this specifically islamic? I'd even say* that their cuisine will be even better without all those islamic restrictions, so how is this helping?

*I actually know this, as a lot of foods common in the Balkans while being inspired from the ottoman cuisine they also were adapted to use pork, making them even better.

Because it is the differences that make food interesting. One of the reasons I love living in China is because of the sheer range of options in terms of choice. There are differences based on ethnic backgrounds, as well, as religious. There are numerous Muslims living within China's borders, and like the Chinese in Ireland, you can find them promoting their own versions of cuisine. I also spent time in Iran a few years ago, and quite enjoyed the food there. Not everything, but that's the same anywhere.

As for being specifically Islamic, architecture tends to draw from many sources in it's aim to improve itself. Many western uses of the arches were inspired from what Crusaders and missionaries saw in the holy land.. different ways to do something, often being better ways. They simply incorporated them into their own culture. I'm not nuts about buildings but you can see the influence of Islamic culture in Moorish buildings throughout the Med.

Lefty Bicek

alastair wrote: »

Nope - there is no spike whatsoever.
There’s a greater number of foreign-born amongst a percentage that hasn’t changed much from the start of that graph. That’s all.

A spike, in other words, amongst the very cohort that a thread about taking in migrants would be focused on.

A thread like this one.

But you're fooling nobody anyway - the poster you were responding to made no mention of 2003, so 'the start of the graph' here is just a manipulation that suits you.

2010, '11, '12. They're in the graph as well.

The number of HIV diagnoses in Ireland has increased by 35% since 2011. A notable jump in the figures became apparent in 2013 and 2014.

https://www.thejournal.ie/hiv-diagnoses-ireland-4070681-Jun2018/

A spike.

That is all.

alastair

Lefty Bicek wrote: »

A spike, in other words, amongst the very cohort that a thread about taking in migrants would be focused on.

A thread like this one.

But you're fooling nobody anyway - the poster you were responding to made no mention of 2003, so 'the start of the graph' here is just a manipulation that suits you.

2010, '11, '12. They're in the graph as well.



https://www.thejournal.ie/hiv-diagnoses-ireland-4070681-Jun2018/

A spike.

That is all.

Ehh, no.

People should also be looking into the spike in HIV cases in Ireland

There is no spike. The prevalence per population is about the same as it was 18 years ago. So, your claim is without foundation.

Lefty Bicek

alastair wrote: »

Ehh, no.



It’s not a spike. The prevalence per population is about the same as it was 18 years ago. So, your claim is without foundation.

Your arithmetic is without foundation.

The number of HIV diagnoses in Ireland has increased by 35% since 2011.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112748641&postcount=190


Do you know that 2011 is not 18 years ago ?

zom

alastair wrote: »

They were helping the Greeks on a number of fronts.

I would rather call that sabotaging not helping.

alastair

Lefty Bicek wrote: »

Your arithmetic is without foundation.




https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112748641&postcount=190


Do you know that 2011 is not 18 years ago ?

Did you know that the prevalence per population hadn’t shifted much since 2011 either?

The increase from 2013 is accounted for by a change in how HIV was measured - following on from under-reporting in earlier years - as indicated in the graph.

NVRL is the only laboratory which initiates the notification process for HIV in Ireland. A previous review of HIV data from 2003 to 2007 by the National Virus Reference laboratory (NVRL) and HPSC identified underreporting of HIV cases (10). At the time, the agreed NVRL criteria for HIV reporting which was defined as two serologically positive results recorded on two separate samples, differed from the European case definition (11). As a result of the review, it was agreed by all surveillance partners to amend the NVRL working case definition to also include all new diagnoses with one antibody positive test and a significant viral load result (where a detectable quantity of HIV nucleic acid is reported). Ongoing review of the data by the NVRL and HPSC in subsequent years identified further new diagnoses which were not being reported due to these laboratory criteria. These were either cases with an anti-HIV serological positive result and subsequent viral loads tests with undetectable viral loads or cases with only one antibody positive and no other subsequent tests. While the number of cases in these categories was small between 2009 and 2012, the number in 2013 increased significantly and was a cause for concern.

So - what you’re left with is a scenario where diagnosis increased - but prevalence remained less impacted, given that it had been under-reported previously. And within that scenario, the proportion of foreign-born HIV positive cases did increase, but without impacting the overall prevalence within population particularly. Most of the foreign-born cases are Brazilian gay men, which is unsurprising, as a significant proportion of Brazilians who have come here are both young, and gay (30% according to a MRBI poll).

alastair

zom wrote: »

I would rather call that sabotaging not helping.

Would you now? 🙄
Even so - their mandate was clear enough - and that’s what they were there to do.

zom

More support - after Danish from Frontex, this time Finish Interior Minister Maria Ohisalo (Green) Friday's conference:

According to Ohisalo, Greece must comply with EU law, which includes the right to apply for asylum.

https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-03-06---live-broadcast-at-about-12-15-pm--minister-of-the-interior-ohisalo-grilled-by-political-journalists-.HJX5m0Y1rU.html

sdanseo

Absolutely not.

If you are of the insular, unaware, "let's save the world at our own expense because we're rich" type and in doubt, take a day trip to Balbriggan, and google the housing list.

Before anyone starts, it's not about racism, xenophobia, the colour or creed of anyone. I'd say the same if there was a sudden mass exodus from Norway. It's the simple fact that for about 9 decades this country has been as near as hell to incompetent of any type of management or planning whatsoever.
We literally got a pissup in a brewery wrong (the Queen was served a pint she couldn't drink).
The immigration scenario is no different with thousands left in what are essentially prisons, hating us more and more on the daily.

zom

It is pretty much all about Turks politics and support against Syria. Nothing else. Anyone who can't see and understand this shouldn't take a part in discussion or decision making - for its own good. You don't fix your gas pipes if you're not qualified - why take important political decisions when you have no clue about politics.

Lefty Bicek

alastair wrote: »

Did you know that the prevalence per population hadn’t shifted much since 2011 either?

But what would the prevalence be were it not for this extremely important phenomenon which no honest commentator would ignore...

The rate of HIV diagnosis among those born outside Ireland has increased substantially
since 2011 (from 18.4 per 100,000 in 2011 to 45.7 per 100,000 in 2018).

?

The increase from 2013 is accounted for by a change in how HIV was measured - following on from under-reporting in earlier years - as indicated in the graph.

Incorrect. Caught again with yet more of your finger-in-the-dam bluffing. And as usual, you omit the basic courtesy of referencing your source.

In fact, from p.3 of the link provided below -

In January 2015, there was a change to the surveillance case definition for HIV for HSE
East (Dublin, Kildare and Wicklow). Previously, confirmatory testing by the National Virus
Reference Laboratory (NVRL) was required on two separate samples prior to notification.
From January 2015 onwards, confirmatory testing by NVRL on one sample was sufficient
for notification purposes. This change was applied to notifications from all other HSE areas
in January 2016. This improved the sensitivity of the surveillance system and resulted in
increased notifications and more timely notifications since 2015.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/hivandaids/hivdataandreports/HIV_2018_final.pdf

2015, not 2013. You can't even read the graph that you provided.


And yet, the numbers increased even before the change in data method.

The number of HIV diagnoses in Ireland has increased by 35% since 2011. Mulligan says a notable jump in the figures became apparent in 2013 and 2014...

https://www.thejournal.ie/hiv-ireland-world-aids-day-3719381-Dec2017/

Anyway, part of the increase in 2014 and 2015 is accounted for by an outbreak in HIV among homeless drug users in Dublin.

One way or another, you repping change as just the consequence of changes in how HIV was measured, is just wishful thinking on your part.

In truth, you haven't a notion.

alastair

Lefty Bicek wrote: »

But what would the prevalence be were it not for this extremely important phenomenon which no honest commentator would ignore...

?



Incorrect. Caught again with yet more of your finger-in-the-dam bluffing. And as usual, you omit the basic courtesy of referencing your source.

In fact, from p.3 of the link provided below -



https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/hivandaids/hivdataandreports/HIV_2018_final.pdf

2015, not 2013. You can't even read the graph that you provided.


And yet, the numbers increased even before the change in data method.



https://www.thejournal.ie/hiv-ireland-world-aids-day-3719381-Dec2017/

Anyway, part of the increase in 2014 and 2015 is accounted for by an outbreak in HIV among homeless drug users in Dublin.

One way or another, you repping change as just the consequence of changes in how HIV was measured, is just wishful thinking on your part.

In truth, you haven't a notion.

Nope - once again:

Ongoing review of the data by the NVRL and HPSC in subsequent years identified further new diagnoses which were not being reported due to these laboratory criteria. These were either cases with an anti-HIV serological positive result and subsequent viral loads tests with undetectable viral loads or cases with only one antibody positive and no other subsequent tests. While the number of cases in these categories was small between 2009 and 2012, the number in 2013 increased significantly and was a cause for concern.

That’s an increase in 2013 - not 2015. On the back of changed criteria for inclusion.
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/hivandaids/hivdataandreports/hivreportsqualityandcompleteness/Report_Evaluation_of_the_HIV_surveillance_in_Ireland_final%2024.11.2015.pdf

And sure - the foreign-born percentage of a relatively stable prevalence per population figure has grown, but it hasn’t resulted in any sort of spike of prevalence. The ratio of HIV positive people within Irish society hasn’t had any spikes over the last seven years, nor the last seventeen years.

zom

zom wrote: »

It is pretty much all about Turks politics and support against Syria. Nothing else. Anyone who can't see and understand this shouldn't take a part in discussion or decision making - for its own good. You don't fix your gas pipes if you're not qualified - why take important political decisions when you have no clue about politics.

As politicians are only educated to be politicians, or their own limited careers before politics, what qualifies them for the varied portfolios that they might cover over their political career? Nothing... because "politics" is the game of playing with power.

This situation is more than politics. It's economics. Basic supply and demand. We don't have infinite resources, and migrants are a growing drain.

There is no expectation that the numbers of migrants will decrease over time. Social, economic, and military unrest is a strong influence in many parts of Africa, the M.East, Asia and S.America. In many cases, those people will want to come to Europe, especially if it's easier than entering another western zone like the US, or Australia. Asylum seekers, for the most part, do not return to their original country... economic migrants will stay as long as there's benefit to them.

So... where do you place all these migrants who are completely unsuitable in terms of education and attitude to succeeding in a first world economy? (and who have very little interest in improving their educational standards, based on past experience in Germany and other welcoming nations). And as automation comes in more, the jobs the uneducated avail of, will disappear... leaving them with what? Very little, which is going encourage social unrest. Leading to increased benefits for the poor, higher taxes from the middle, and increased bitterness/anger from the native populations.. resulting in?

Woodsie1

How many more migrants should we take in before we say "that's enough" and leave the rest stranded at the border of the EU?

There has to be a limit.

LaFuton

no.

McGiver

Deleted User wrote:

This situation is more than politics. It's economics. Basic supply and demand. We don't have infinite resources, and migrants are a growing drain.

The only problem is that several countries in Europe, namely Italy, Portugal, Germany, will have serious demographic issues and hence economic issues due to not enough labour and too many pensioners. Their birth rates are feeble, and with the exception of Germany also suffer from emigration.
Not applicable to Ireland that much but just saying. Ireland does still need largely skilled immigrants due to liberal labour market and many MNCs operating, many skilled positions must be filled by migrants, locals are unable to supply them.

Blueshoe

McGiver wrote: »

The only problem is that several countries in Europe, namely Italy, Portugal, Germany, will have serious demographic issues and hence economic issues due to not enough labour and too many pensioners. Their birth rates are feeble, and with the exception of Germany also suffer from emigration.
Not applicable to Ireland that much but just saying. Ireland does still need largely skilled immigrants due to liberal labour market and many MNCs operating, many skilled positions must be filled by migrants, locals are unable to supply them.

Yes we should continue to take in skilled immigrants to fill shortages and allow businesses and the economy to grow.

Take in unskilled workers who are a drain on economy, housing and healthcare though?

No

vriesmays

Lonesomerhodes wrote: »

All these bleeding heart freaks when have they ever put anyone up themselves?.

The best ones are the 3rd level students most of whom would welcome in these chancers yet they can't get part-time jobs anymore because of too much competition from our recent arrivals.

McGiver

Blueshoe wrote:

Yes we should continue to take in skilled immigrants to fill shortages and allow businesses and the economy to grow.

Yes, and it's happening.

Blueshoe wrote:

Take in unskilled workers who are a drain on economy, housing and healthcare though?

We're not doing it. Do you have evidence we do?

Also - define unskilled. For example social care workers, nurses are all labelled as low skilled but hell they're important especially if you don't (and won't) have a local supply.

McGiver

vriesmays wrote:

The best ones are the 3rd level students most of whom would welcome in these chancers yet they can't get part-time jobs anymore because of too much competition from our recent arrivals.

Who? Where? How many? When?

Clarence Boddiker

vriesmays wrote: »

The best ones are the 3rd level students most of whom would welcome in these chancers yet they can't get part-time jobs anymore because of too much competition from our recent arrivals.

They don't seem to be able to make that connection, just like those complaining about the housing/ accommodation crisis whilst supporting open borders can't seem to make the (very obvious) connection either

Lefty Bicek

McGiver wrote: »

Yes, and it's happening.


We're not doing it. Do you have evidence we do?

Also - define unskilled. For example social care workers, nurses are all labelled as low skilled but hell they're important especially if you don't (and won't) have a local supply.

Don't be ridiculous.

McGiver

Lefty Bicek wrote:

Don't be ridiculous.

That would need a bit more elaboration I guess. Something is missing? You're on a discussion forum not sending texts to pals.