Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

DrumSteve

Yeah id imagine once the Germans go into lock down, Europe will follow their lead

stephenjmcd

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

10 new cases in Austria this morning. Brings total to 51.

To be honest given their location, that's not too bad

PixelTrawler

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Something big is going to happen in terms of containment. I don't know where Germany will end today but we are probably looking at over 500 new cases for the day...catastrophic.

Germans will be demanding action and I think some severe travel and other restrictions may be put in place even before the end of the day.

We can't go on like this.

At the rate Germany is going, could be north of 2000 cases by the end of the week. With France not far behind. Needs a european wide effort now to fight it.

embraer170

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Germany seem quite well prepared and for the number of cases not 1 death registered

That might be because Germany is a few weeks behind Italy, but we'll see.

Germany has quite a high number of hospital beds per person (at least double Ireland's). That said, staffing in the healthcare system is a huge issue.

frash

60 staff in CUH told to self isolate

embraer170

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

And what's worse, he was coughing and spluttering while at work and had obvious symptoms yet never thought maybe that he had the virus and him a friggen doctor!!!

The guy is an idiot for showing up at work, but his management are just as bad for letting him come to work and not asking questions.

Bandana boy

Normal flu has a 1/1,000 fatality rate
And last year we had 1,000 deaths
So that would suggest 1,000,000 catch flu each year

Assuming the same infection rate at 2/100 fatality rate we are looking at 20,000 deaths here .

Factors to consider We have means of stopping flu being caught so is the 1,000,000 who catch it each year understated for Corona
Corona looks easier to prevent somebody catching and has much higher profile care been taken by people so is 1,000,000 people with overstated.

embraer170

DrumSteve wrote: »

Yeah id imagine once the Germans go into lock down, Europe will follow their lead

I very much hope to be wrong but I see not evidence of measures being foreseen to put Germany into lock down.

givyjoe

bennyl10 wrote: »

They said hunderds of thousands would die in Ireland to clarify, which wont happen

even with a 2% fatality we wont reach near those figures here

This is form looking at reporting and the country graph which has held through so far

Who said hundreds of thousands?! People quoted 20k from a Beaumont professor, but I've not seen a single post throwing those figures about.

UsBus

Keyzer wrote: »

I'm still trying to comprehend the level of stupidity required for a someone who, after returning to Ireland from an infected red zone area, thinks its a good to go to work.

In a hospital...

Surely even the smallest grain of common sense kicks in there and you decide to self isolate with your family.

I mean what level of stupid is that? Surely its off the richter scale for stupid.

Totally agree, as a regular Joe, I was aware of this virus a couple of months ago. As a GP, he would have been well aware of this virus before xmas. Am hearing the wife is an inspector, so has been in and out of schools all over the place. Doesn't seem to have been any self responsibility here at all. They will be paying for it now anyway and over the next few months I reckon..

Cork Boy 53

DrumSteve wrote: »

Yeah id imagine once the Germans go into lock down, Europe will follow their lead

Doubt that Boris and his cronies will, out of spite if nothing else.

tillyfilly

Three schools in the west of Ireland have reportedly closed amid coronavirus fears and more may shut, Minister for Health Rolf Harris said.

The virus, also known as Covid-19, has now infected nine people, the Irish health organisation has confirmed.

Tacitus Kilgore

That poor doctor must be close to being lynched at this stage, not sure what his dates away were - was there a travel alert in place when he was away?

If not I think folk are being massively over the top in their vitriol towards him..

Mic 1972

Fatality rate is at 6% today, it only dropped 0.04% since yesterday. I was hoping it would drop below 5 but the current trend suggests otherwise

Tacitus Kilgore

tillyfilly wrote: »

Three schools in the west of Ireland have reportedly closed amid coronavirus fears and more may shut, Minister for Health Rolf Harris said.

The virus, also known as Covid-19, has now infected nine people, the Irish health organisation has confirmed.

What the jaysus fuck is that?

dominatinMC

embraer170 wrote: »

What large scale measures are European countries implementing?

Wuhan was put into lock down when China had less than 550 cases. We are far beyond that in Italy, Germany, France.

European policymakers are scared ****less of disrupting the grand European project of open borders and mass movement of people. People on here criticised and ridiculed the Chinese authorities for the "draconian" measures they implemented, but they did it for the greater good. If only our European overlords would consider some of the softer Chinese actions, it would help. At the moment, everything seems to be reactionary, rather than proactive

Boggles

tillyfilly wrote: »

Three schools in the west of Ireland have reportedly closed amid coronavirus fears and more may shut, Minister for Health Rolf Harris said.

The virus, also known as Covid-19, has now infected nine people, the Irish health organisation has confirmed.

Have you any other news from yesterday?

Kermit.de.frog

tillyfilly wrote: »

Three schools in the west of Ireland have reportedly closed amid coronavirus fears and more may shut, Minister for Health Rolf Harris said.

The virus, also known as Covid-19, has now infected nine people, the Irish health organisation has confirmed.

In a few days you will look back on this post as the good times.

Ninthlife

frash wrote: »

60 staff in CUH told to self isolate

If true you'd imagine the majority are frontline essential docs/nurses...not the kind of people youd want to be without

Then given the amount of people they attended to and you are looking at a huge outbreak in Cork alone

joe40

embraer170 wrote: »

Exactly, and that is what people don't get when they repeat the message that it is dying down in China so the same will happen here.

It is dying down in China because of early drastic measures.

In Europe, both the French and British are communicating that they believe this cannot be contained. I understand from sources that some local authorities in Germany are being told the same.

Technical question: How can a virus die down? I understand severe restrictions on movement stop the immediate spread but the actual virus still exists, lying dormant, so I would have thought as soon as normal service returns the virus will just start up again.

Basically will short term drastic measures have significant long term benefits. I know things like banning the parades would probably have some benefit, but things like school closures for a few weeks, would the benefit match the disruption. Schools will eventually start up again and we will be back to square one.

It seems to me until a vaccine is discovered (and people take it) we will just have to cope with this infection.

Again I'm not an expert, just posing a question.

Drumpot

Bandana boy wrote: »

Normal flu has a 1/1,000 fatality rate
And last year we had 1,000 deaths
So that would suggest 1,000,000 catch flu each year

Assuming the same infection rate at 2/100 fatality rate we are looking at 20,000 deaths here .

Factors to consider We have means of stopping flu being caught so is the 1,000,000 who catch it each year understated for Corona
Corona looks easier to prevent somebody catching and has much higher profile care been taken by people so is 1,000,000 people with overstated.

WHO are saying it’s not as easy to catch as the flu. They said if you lockdown a city like Wuhan for the flu you don’t get the results they got in china. That means if we go on full lockdown in Ireland we can get this under control like China.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-coronavirus-different-than-influenza-can-be-contained/

Pseudonym121

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Wonder if there is any correlation with student doctors having their exams brought forward 7 weeks to what is happening in Limerick and Cork?

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1235596524580675586?s=19

It is simply sensible to get more young doctors into the system ASAP.

A. They’ll need bodies to replace SHOs/interns etc who get sick or are self-isolating by then. People seem to think there will always be enough doctors and nurses to provide proper care. We have an overstretched system as it is with very little spare capacity and redundancy. Even moderate levels of self-isolation and illness among staff will have significant impacts.

B. They’ll want the reserve capacity a few hundred extra doctors give them in May/June.

C. I think it will prove difficult to organise Final Med Exams by May/June. I’ve been involved in organising them and examining a few times and
C1. It takes a lot of time away from clinical work - two consultants examining each long case for half a day over a period of almost a week. That’s a lot of time which they simple won’t have by May/June if this goes the way it could.

C2. Doing them earlier reduces the risk of infection during the exams.

C3. It gives the potential of doubling the number of interns in Hospitals across the country during a period when the stretch on resources will be ramping up. This will help.


It is good to see responsible bodies taking reasonable steps in preparation for likely scenarios. 300 extra bodies with ruthless redeployment to areas hit by illness/self isolation will really help. And they’re interns so they’ll go where told. The few who don’t will be remembered by their seniors and good luck to them making any career progress when we are on the other side of this.

Rob A. Bank

This is really worrying... WHO Director-General speaks out, no wonder he is getting mad with the response so far from governments and others.

Shortage of personal protective equipment endangering health workers worldwide

We can’t stop COVID-19 without protecting health workers first,” said WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

Since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, prices have surged. Surgical masks have seen a sixfold increase, N95 respirators have trebled and gowns have doubled.

Supplies can take months to deliver and market manipulation is widespread, with stocks frequently sold to the highest bidder.

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/03-03-2020-shortage-of-personal-protective-equipment-endangering-health-workers-worldwide

seamus

Bandana boy wrote: »

Assuming the same infection rate at 2/100 fatality rate we are looking at 20,000 deaths here .

You can't assume the same infection rates tbh. Different type of virus, different transmission vectors.

We already know it doesn't spread as easily as the 'flu.

You also can't assume the 2% fatality rate holds true because we have no idea how many carriers are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. Practically all testing carried out so far has been through voluntary presentation.

tara73

embraer170 wrote: »

It seems that most European countries have now accepted that that this cannot be contained and believe that a substantial % of the population (be it 15% or 70%) will be contaminated in the next year or so.

yes. after watching a lot of talk shows with experts here in Germany that is the common sense, 40-70% will be infected, time frame is not completely clear but every expert said it's not containable (at this stage).

I was shocked they excluded lockdowns here, and I still am in a way. I can see now behind their strategy: Let this virus spread because it's not stoppable by trying to contain it completely, but try to contain as much as possible and therefore slow down infections. But not shutting down countries and economies completely. They must have somewhere (Brussels?) agreed to see Europe as a whole country in this case so no stopping of flights or lockdown of countries to keep everything going as much as possible. I don't think any country in Europe has dismissed flights from Italy yet?

Experts said it will probably die down in summertime, but they are not sure how much and it will definately shoot up again in wintertime.

I don't know whether this is the right way to go but then I think nobody can say what is 100% right or or wrong in this situation anymore, I think we are in the hands of this virus now and mankind gets a dose that we still can't control nature in the end and all this globalisation can easily erade us or bring our developed world down.

I also heard there's some kind of medication used in Japan which seems to be effective with covid19 by reduceing the viral load in the body. It's accredited in Japan but not in Europe . They just need to approve it here. Some hope maybe.

Away With The Fairies

Does boards have a virus as well. Alot of the front pages are going back 10 and more years.

Duggie2012

Ninthlife wrote: »

If true you'd imagine the majority are frontline essential docs/nurses...not the kind of people youd want to be without

Then given the amount of people they attended to and you are looking at a huge outbreak in Cork alone

60 staff?? sure would there be any staff left after that

jackboy

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

That poor doctor must be close to being lynched at this stage, not sure what his dates away were - was there a travel alert in place when he was away?

If not I think folk are being massively over the top in their vitriol towards him..

The truth is blame will not help to resolve this issue.

Mistakes need to learned from and appropriate solutions put in place as quickly as possible.

all about the mane

seamus wrote: »

You can't assume the same infection rates tbh. Different type of virus, different transmission vectors.

We already know it doesn't spread as easily as the 'flu.

You also can't assume the 2% fatality rate holds true because we have no idea how many carriers are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. Practically all testing carried out so far has been through voluntary presentation.

Exactly. Need more if this sensible posting.

Straffan1979

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Something big is going to happen in terms of containment. I don't know where Germany will end today but we are probably looking at over 500 new cases for the day...catastrophic.

Germans will be demanding action and I think some severe travel and other restrictions may be put in place even before the end of the day.

We can't go on like this.

We can’t go on like what?


80% of people infected with this will have mild symptoms or will have no symptoms.

Do you realise a conservative estimate of deaths from influenza in North America alone this winter 19/20 is 30,000 +... and it’s all unreported and accepted.

Whats going to make this worse is hype,fear and anxiety- the mental health effects from threads like this will have much greater far reaching consequences than this virus and may well catapult us into recession if people don’t get a grip- this phenomenon is well studied internationally.

The most dangerous thing here is this creeping doubt and paranoia about what the medical experts are telling you to do.

The public consulting google and social media... the net result of this could be society becoming resigned to their ‘fate’ -oh we’re going to die ...they stop heeding medical advice or going to work and we could have social breakdown.

We’d really need to grow up here. You’ll get this virus possibly and no you won’t die. It’s very concerning for older people and those immuno compromised and there needs to be calm restored to protect these people.