Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Loafing Oaf

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

That poor doctor must be close to being lynched at this stage, not sure what his dates away were - was there a travel alert in place when he was away?

If not I think folk are being massively over the top in their vitriol towards him..

If he was going to work at a hospital over several days while suffering clear cold/flu symptoms then he deserves it. Don't know if this is anything more than hearsay though.
I would have thought there was a strong case for him self-isolating, or at least not going in to work, after returning from Italy, even if he hadn't been showing signs of the disease.

Pseudonym121

DOCARCH wrote: »

Not necessarily. Contact between family members needs to be minimized and the person essentially needs to self isolate within the house.

Yes, I believe it will become standard practice that the individual involved will not only self-isolate at home but will also be advised to self-isolate from the rest of the family - ie staying in one room, for being left at the door, no other family entering that room etc.

The entire household should self-isolate for a minimum of two weeks also. This will simply become standard practice and government advice over coming weeks.

Without that step there is a high risk that if they have COVID19 they’ll pass it on to the rest of their family.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

UsBus wrote: »

Totally agree, as a regular Joe, I was aware of this virus a couple of months ago. As a GP, he would have been well aware of this virus before xmas. Am hearing the wife is an inspector, so has been in and out of schools all over the place. Doesn't seem to have been any self responsibility here at all. They will be paying for it now anyway and over the next few months I reckon..

Considering that reports only started to come out of China at the end of December, how so? He would have known about the other coronaviruses back then but not this one because it’s novel.

Ninthlife

Duggie2012 wrote: »

60 staff?? sure would there be any staff left after that

Id imagine CUH has 100's

Losing 60 seems a hell of alot

MarkY91

nocoverart wrote: »

Well, least the one positive in all of this is if the Eurovision gets cancelled we won’t have to endure that horrific Irish entry on the masses, no vaccine for that sh1t!

You could just, you know, not watch it?

Cee-Jay-Cee

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'd be willing to bet tonight's update for Ireland will be in double figures.

It was in double figures yesterday so sort of a given that it'll be in double figures today!

Dr.Winston O'Boogie

stoneill wrote: »

I hope I get this early - 2 weeks off in March, then immune to enjoy the summer while everyone else is hiding at home.

Not sure you have seen but there have been several cases of people getting it, testing negative, then getting it again. So the above is a somewhat flawed tactic.

DrumSteve

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Fatality rate is at 6% today, it only dropped 0.04% since yesterday. I was hoping it would drop below 5 but the current trend suggests otherwise

Stands at 5.73%.

This won't drop for another while at least until we start to see recoveries in Italy for instance.

I think it'll bottom out for recorded cases at 3%.

When you add in unrecorded cases, it'll drop further.

BLIZZARD7

Straffan1979 wrote: »

We can’t go on like what?


80% of people infected with this will have mild symptoms or will have no symptoms.

Do you realise a conservative estimate of deaths from influenza in North America alone this winter 19/20 is 30,000 +... and it’s all unreported and accepted.

Whats going to make this worse is hype,fear and anxiety- the mental health effects from threads like this will have much far reaching consequences than this virus and may well catapult us into recession if people don’t get a grip- this phenomenon is well studied internationally.

Yes people shouldn't panic.
But saying 80% will be mild or no symptoms? Define mild? I've seen multiples of these cases described as being mild and having developed pneumonia in the same sentance. That's anything but mild compared to no symptoms.

YFlyer

martingriff wrote: »

So what are the competent overseas saying in relation to the question you quoted compared to the HSE. Because it seems all you did is rant

Even RTE had a short clip early last week that the person suspected of having the coronavirus to self isolate themselves from the rest of the household.

All the students in the schools that have the coronavirus should be self isolated and not mixing with others.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

joe40 wrote: »

Technical question: How can a virus die down? I understand severe restrictions on movement stop the immediate spread but the actual virus still exists, lying dormant, so I would have thought as soon as normal service returns the virus will just start up again.

Basically will short term drastic measures have significant long term benefits. I know things like banning the parades would probably have some benefit, but things like school closures for a few weeks, would the benefit match the disruption. Schools will eventually start up again and we will be back to square one.

It seems to me until a vaccine is discovered (and people take it) we will just have to cope with this infection.

Again I'm not an expert, just posing a question.

Well, apparently it’s slow to mutate so anyone who is infected with it and survives will have immunity that lasts quite a while. That could help slow its spread.

SeaBreezes

tara73 wrote: »

yes. after watching a lot of talk shows with experts here in Germany that is the common sense, 40-70% will be infected, time frame is not completely clear but every expert said it's not containable (at this stage).

I was shocked they excluded lockdowns here, and I still am in a way. I can see now behind their strategy: Let this virus spread because it's not stoppable by trying to contain it completely, but try to contain as much as possible and therefore slow down infections. But not shutting down countries and economies completely. They must have somewhere (Brussels?) agreed to see Europe as a whole country in this case so no stopping of flights or lockdown of countries to keep everything going as much as possible. I don't think any country in Europe has dismissed flights from Italy yet?

Experts said it will probably die down in summertime, but they are not sure how much and it will definately shoot up again in wintertime.

I don't know whether this is the right way to go but then I think nobody can say what is 100% right or or wrong in this situation anymore, I think we are in the hands of this virus now and mankind gets a dose that we still can't control nature in the end and all this globalisation can easily erade us or bring our developed world down.

I also heard there's some kind of medication used in Japan which seems to be effective with covid19 by reduceing the viral load in the body. It's accredited in Japan but not in Europe . They just need to approve it here. Some hope maybe.

Ahhh much better to not get it..
Its a combo of HIV and SARS as the first paper that was rubbished suggested:
I was wondering why they called the virus SARS-COV-2 and the disease it causes COVID19. Like HIV and AIDS.

When I linked to their paper in Jan I was rubbished as scarmongering..
But it seems autopsies agree with their finding.

Now I wonder if it can hide in the immune system like HIV, if you get it are you ever really free of it?

The good news is, with advances in HIV it seems this virus responds to HIV drugs... but prevention is WAY better than cure.

Chinese doctors say autopsies of coronavirus victims suggest the deadly illness is “like a combination of SARS and AIDS” that can cause “irreversible” lung damage even if the patient recovers.

The grim finding was reported on by Communist Party mouthpiece the Global Times on Friday, after a paper by Wuhan doctors published in the Journal of Forensic Medicine earlier in the week went viral on Chinese social media.

“The influence of COVID-19 on the human body is like a combination of SARS and AIDS as it damages both the lungs and immune systems,” Peng Zhiyong, director of the intensive care unit of the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University in Wuhan, told the Global Times.

Dr Peng was commenting on the paper by Liu Liang, a forensic specialist from the Tongji Medical College at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, whose team had conducted nine autopsies of coronavirus patients as of February 24.

“The autopsy results Liu shared inspired me a lot. Based on the results, I think the most important thing now is to take measures at an early stage of the disease to protect patients’ lungs from irreversible fibrosis,” Dr Peng told the outlet.

Full article here:
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/chinese-doctors-say-coronavirus-like-a-combination-of-sars-and-aids-can-cause-irreversible-lung-damage/news-story/f58f19c5eeae99b845c54e2d2b9305ca

Drumpot

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

This is really worrying... WHO Director-General speaks out, no wonder he is getting mad with the response so far from governments and others.

Shortage of personal protective equipment endangering health workers worldwide

Who would of guessed people would want to take advantage of a crisis in a capitalist world? Along with countries being slow to take action for Short term financial reasons it’s another example of More chickens coming home to roost.

Good luck to those in the trenches

Hector Savage

DrumSteve wrote: »

Stands at 5.73%.

This won't drop for another while at least until we start to see recoveries in Italy for instance.

I think it'll bottom out for recorded cases at 3%.

When you add in unrecorded cases, it'll drop further.

Take the Wuhan cases out of that and it's CONSIDERABLY lower - even within China ...

UsBus

tillyfilly wrote: »

Three schools in the west of Ireland have reportedly closed amid coronavirus fears and more may shut, Minister for Health Rolf Harris said.

.

If he's our new health Minister, we are in trouble....!!

Gods Gift

Good luck expecting students to self isolate on a Friday nite.

laurah591

frash wrote: »

60 staff in CUH told to self isolate

That's a huge number; you have to question how they will be able to keep CUH open and operational giving staffing issues pre corona; anyone have today's trolley watch numbers?

Hector Savage

Straffan1979 wrote: »

We can’t go on like what?


80% of people infected with this will have mild symptoms or will have no symptoms.

Do you realise a conservative estimate of deaths from influenza in North America alone this winter 19/20 is 30,000 +... and it’s all unreported and accepted.

Whats going to make this worse is hype,fear and anxiety- the mental health effects from threads like this will have much greater far reaching consequences than this virus and may well catapult us into recession if people don’t get a grip- this phenomenon is well studied internationally.

The most dangerous thing here is this creeping doubt and paranoia about what the medical experts are telling you to do.

The public consulting google and social media... the net result of this could be society becoming resigned to their ‘fate’ -oh we’re going to die ...they stop heeding medical advice or going to work and we could have social breakdown.

We’d really need to grow up here. You’ll get this virus possibly and no you won’t die. It’s very concerning for older people and those immuno compromised and there needs to be calm restored to protect these people.

Good post and very very true.

I do this panic myself, everytime I check the Italian figures I go into meltdown - just look at my posts yesterday, it's a way of dealing with my anxiety but I shouldn't as I'm chucking peterol on the fire.

drunkmonkey

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Yes people shouldn't panic.
But saying 80% will be mild or no symptoms? Define mild? I've seen multiples of these cases described as being mild and having developed pneumonia in the same sentance. That's anything but mild compared to no symptoms.

You have you laugh at people who think phneumonia is any way ok to get especially if we have a shortage of Oxygen or ventelators. Obviously not old enough to see it kill someone close to them.

Mic 1972

The unrecorded cases is a bit of an urban legend really. Italy has taken thousands of swats and most of them returned negative results, the positive ones may have mild symptoms, but even then they could get worse over time. I think it's time accept reality about the death rate at this point

laurah591

embraer170 wrote: »

The guy is an idiot for showing up at work, but his management are just as bad for letting him come to work and not asking questions.

I heard he was tested for virus - false negative, he was in touch with management and ok'd for work. I think we all need to be a little less judgy - locally this guy is identifiable

Acosta

The HSE should have had the CUH closed off for visitors and non vital procedures for days before yesterday as they had suspected cases in there. Given how utterly useless they are I'm really annoyed with myself for being in there twice this week.

Hamsterchops

UK & Ireland, Covid-19 cases as of 9:30am Friday 6th March .....

UK = 116 cases
IRELAND = 13 cases

Scary to think what these figures might look like come this evening, and I guess even as I post this the above numbers have changed

deathbomber

joe40 wrote: »

Technical question: How can a virus die down? I understand severe restrictions on movement stop the immediate spread but the actual virus still exists, lying dormant, so I would have thought as soon as normal service returns the virus will just start up again.

Basically will short term drastic measures have significant long term benefits. I know things like banning the parades would probably have some benefit, but things like school closures for a few weeks, would the benefit match the disruption. Schools will eventually start up again and we will be back to square one.

It seems to me until a vaccine is discovered (and people take it) we will just have to cope with this infection.

Again I'm not an expert, just posing a question.

Herd immunity will kick in- would be a while yet though and obviously many people would need to have recovered

Nijmegen

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/03/05/what-the-world-has-learned-about-facing-covid-19

Really interesting and balanced piece in this weeks edition of The Economist (if you have used your free articles with them just open in an incognito window). Couple of things that keep arising as discussion points in this thread:

-What you test you find. South Korea is testing 10,000 cases per day. As of March 1, the US had tested fewer than 500 - and some of the tests were faulty. Reported numbers there are going to soar and in any country really that isn’t testing widely, ala drive thru tests and what have you.

-Transparency in information contains the spread. In South Korea details released have led to at least one extra marital affair being revealed. But people know where not to go and they know that if they spread it, they’ll suffer a personal consequence. So don’t go somewhere there has been transmission and drive social isolation. Sounds harsh, but the virus doesn’t care about social morals.

SeaBreezes

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Ahhh much better to not get it..
Its a combo of HIV and SARS as the first paper that was rubbished suggested:
I was wondering why they called the virus SARS-COV-2 and the disease it causes COVID19. Like HIV and AIDS.

When I linked to their paper in Jan I was rubbished as scarmongering..
But it seems autopsies agree with their finding.

Now I wonder if it can hide in the immune system like HIV, if you get it are you ever really free of it?

The good news is, with advances in HIV it seems this virus responds to HIV drugs... but prevention is WAY better than cure.

Chinese doctors say autopsies of coronavirus victims suggest the deadly illness is “like a combination of SARS and AIDS” that can cause “irreversible” lung damage even if the patient recovers.

The grim finding was reported on by Communist Party mouthpiece the Global Times on Friday, after a paper by Wuhan doctors published in the Journal of Forensic Medicine earlier in the week went viral on Chinese social media.

“The influence of COVID-19 on the human body is like a combination of SARS and AIDS as it damages both the lungs and immune systems,” Peng Zhiyong, director of the intensive care unit of the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University in Wuhan, told the Global Times.

Dr Peng was commenting on the paper by Liu Liang, a forensic specialist from the Tongji Medical College at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, whose team had conducted nine autopsies of coronavirus patients as of February 24.

“The autopsy results Liu shared inspired me a lot. Based on the results, I think the most important thing now is to take measures at an early stage of the disease to protect patients’ lungs from irreversible fibrosis,” Dr Peng told the outlet.

Full article here:
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/chinese-doctors-say-coronavirus-like-a-combination-of-sars-and-aids-can-cause-irreversible-lung-damage/news-story/f58f19c5eeae99b845c54e2d2b9305ca

I think you are misunderstanding what they are saying. They are not sugggesting that once you have COVID-19, that it enters latent resevoirs stores in the body. They are suggesting that the pulmonary fibrosis will be a chronic health issue for some patients for their rest of their lives.

There isn't a huge amount of evidence for this at the moment (especially as it is such an acute picture at the moment, although I think it could be possibly true).

There was some evidence of Keletra been used to treat COVID-19 but they are really only case reports and I don't think it was particularly effective.

dan786

All geared up...

dan786

Vatican joins the party.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235859262850523136?s=20

tillyfilly

dan786 wrote: »

All geared up...

it's a bit gimpy

YFlyer

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

It is simply sensible to get more young doctors into the system ASAP.

A. They’ll need bodies to replace SHOs/interns etc who get sick or are self-isolating by then. People seem to think there will always be enough doctors and nurses to provide proper care. We have an overstretched system as it is with very little spare capacity and redundancy. Even moderate levels of self-isolation and illness among staff will have significant impacts.

B. They’ll want the reserve capacity a few hundred extra doctors give them in May/June.

C. I think it will prove difficult to organise Final Med Exams by May/June. I’ve been involved in organising them and examining a few times and
C1. It takes a lot of time away from clinical work - two consultants examining each long case for half a day over a period of almost a week. That’s a lot of time which they simple won’t have by May/June if this goes the way it could.

C2. Doing them earlier reduces the risk of infection during the exams.

C3. It gives the potential of doubling the number of interns in Hospitals across the country during a period when the stretch on resources will be ramping up. This will help.


It is good to see responsible bodies taking reasonable steps in preparation for likely scenarios. 300 extra bodies with ruthless redeployment to areas hit by illness/self isolation will really help. And they’re interns so they’ll go where told. The few who don’t will be remembered by their seniors and good luck to them making any career progress when we are on the other side of this.

Will they pay the interns? They got to work a ridiculous amount when the nurses went on strike.