Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Wibbs

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Yes people shouldn't panic.
But saying 80% will be mild or no symptoms? Define mild? I've seen multiples of these cases described as being mild and having developed pneumonia in the same sentance. That's anything but mild compared to no symptoms.

Eh you do realise you can have mild pneumonia? People hear "pneumonia" or even "influenza" and assume/believe near death's door. Again for the "you'd know if you really had flu" brigade; one third of people confirmed infected with influenza viruses show no symptoms. The amount of hysteria and lack of basic knowledge on show is nearly as scary as the Covid virus itself. Then again I can near guarantee there are people reading this who believe antibiotics fight viruses.

What Username Guidelines

laurah591 wrote: »

I heard he was tested for virus - false negative, he was in touch with management and ok'd for work. I think we all need to be a little less judgy - locally this guy is identifiable

True - it's also probably a couple of weeks since the trip, which was technically not in an affected area (one of 4 towns considered affected at the time) and displayed no symptoms. All of the HSE advice, whether right or wrong, was followed. In hindsight and in light of current situation, this seems insane to us, but a lot has changed in the last 2 weeks.

tillyfilly

dan786 wrote: »

Vatican joins the party.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235859262850523136?s=20

no old people there, they will be grand

Funsterdelux

dan786 wrote: »

All geared up...

Does the virus cause increased body odour?

And dandruff?

gabeeg

dan786 wrote: »

Vatican joins the party.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235859262850523136?s=20

where's your god now?

SeaBreezes

SeaBreezes wrote: »

It's heartbreaking. Like watching a slow motion car crash. The amount of heartbreak this virus is going to bring with it.
We had an opportunity to stop it but failed at every step.
Didn't want to 'panic the people' or 'crash the economy'
Well, we can all watch it crash and burn now..
I'm disgusted to be honest. Not one official listened to the experts.
WHO have been banging the aggressive containment drum for a long long time now. Not one person in gov or hse listened.
Telling a doctor and teacher carry on? Wtf? How on earth is that aggressive containment? And people on here trying too say it was WHO guidelines. Newsflash: it wasn't. We know cause we were paying attention.
Disgusting. I'm sooooo angry at the it will be grand people. There is now a man I cork fighting for his life, he's in his forties and his crime was trusting those in authority.

It was treated with interest rate cuts. This should tell you enough about their concerns.

Foot and mouth had a better response, again all about business

circadian

circadian wrote: »

I'd like to think that when this is all calmed down that the shortcomings of the HSE, which we have been aware of for decades, is finally addressed. Given how we've behaved since the 2008 crash I have my concerns.

The slow reaction, poor communication(its a fake letter, no wait it's not a fake letter), lack of testing, lack of capacity, staff returning to work when private companies are asking their staff to self isolate in the same situation.

All of this smacks of bureaucracy, top heavy with management and the fact that we're pissing money on consultants, trying and failing to balance private and public care. Will this change? I'd like to think so, there'll certainly be outcry from he public when all is said and done. They managed to plough on supporting financial institutions after the crash despite public opinion there.

Or pitchforks?

Gods Gift

gabeeg wrote: »

where's your god now?

Self isolating.

Knex*

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

And what's worse, he was coughing and spluttering while at work and had obvious symptoms yet never thought maybe that he had the virus and him a friggen doctor!!!

Wilful ignorance.

I posted a week or two ago that most people will try and convince themselves they haven't got it, and that its likely just a regular flu or cold.

Cee-Jay-Cee

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Well in terms of active cases around Europe hopefully we should see some sort of reduction in numbers once those currently active recover in the next week or so given we're less than 2 weeks into this really in Europe.

Median time for full recovery is 32 days.

igCorcaigh

Hamsterchops wrote: »

UK & Ireland, Covid-19 cases as of 9:30am Friday 6th March .....

UK = 116 cases
IRELAND = 13 cases

Scary to think what these figures might look like come this evening, and I guess even as I post this the above numbers have changed

It's not scary though, expect these figures to go up until they're not counted any more.

We can expect this to go through the population like any other illness.

I'm not dismissing the concern, just that focusing on climbing numbers can make people anxious.

New Home

One thing they did say yesterday during the press conference is that a test can be positive, but it cannot be negative, it can only say that the virus has not been detected (as in, it can't confirm that you definitely don't have it, only that it wasn't able to find it).

Kermit.de.frog

Straffan1979 wrote: »

We can’t go on like what?


80% of people infected with this will have mild symptoms or will have no symptoms.

Do you realise a conservative estimate of deaths from influenza in North America alone this winter 19/20 is 30,000 +... and it’s all unreported and accepted.

Whats going to make this worse is hype,fear and anxiety- the mental health effects from threads like this will have much greater far reaching consequences than this virus and may well catapult us into recession if people don’t get a grip- this phenomenon is well studied internationally.

The most dangerous thing here is this creeping doubt and paranoia about what the medical experts are telling you to do.

The public consulting google and social media... the net result of this could be society becoming resigned to their ‘fate’ -oh we’re going to die ...they stop heeding medical advice or going to work and we could have social breakdown.

We’d really need to grow up here. You’ll get this virus possibly and no you won’t die. It’s very concerning for older people and those immuno compromised and there needs to be calm restored to protect these people.

You clearly don't understand the gravity of the situation if you think there is fear mongering here.

Where is the fear mongering?

We are facing a serious situation. There is no getting around that and honest commentary is only fear mongering to a generation whose biggest concern until now has probably been what to wear to a party.

Fear mongering?

Give me a break.

timmyntc

Wibbs wrote: »

Eh you do realise you can have mild pneumonia? People hear "pneumonia" or even "influenza" and assume/believe near death's door. Again for the "you'd know if you really had flu" brigade; one third of people confirmed infected with influenza viruses show no symptoms. The amount of hysteria and lack of basic knowledge on show is nearly as scary as the Covid virus itself. Then again I can near guarantee there are people reading this who believe antibiotics fight viruses.

The idea that anyone with Covid19 is near deaths door is false.
The idea that most of the people with Covid19 are so mild its like a cold/they dont even realise they have it, is also, false.

The WHO report clearly outlined that the myth of loads of undetected mild cases is exactly that - a myth. Widespread testing in China didnt uncover these mild cases, because they dont exist.
When they use "mild" as in 80% of all cases are mild, they just mean that its not severe enough to include ARDS, Dyspnea, >30 breaths per minute, etc.

Read the WHO report, it clearly defines the criteria for mild vs severe. Its not as grand as you seem to think. This mentality of 80% mild, be grand, take no precautions has got to stop.

Wibbs

SeaBreezes wrote: »

It's heartbreaking. Like watching a slow motion car crash. The amount of heartbreak this virus is going to bring with it.
We had an opportunity to stop it but failed at every step.
Didn't want to 'panic the people' or 'crash the economy'
Well, we can all watch it crash and burn now..
I'm disgusted to be honest. Not one official listened to the experts.
WHO have been banging the aggressive containment drum for a long long time now. Not one person in gov or hse listened.
Telling a doctor and teacher carry on? Wtf? How on earth is that aggressive containment? And people on here trying too say it was WHO guidelines. Newsflash: it wasn't. We know cause we were paying attention.
Disgusting. I'm sooooo angry at the it will be grand people. There is now a man I cork fighting for his life, he's in his forties and his crime was trusting those in authority.

To be fair SB, we're talking about the Irish civil service here. Having dealt with various arms of same down the years, I have found those nearer the front lines to be mostly good, even exceptional, when you get further up the chain the level of jobsworths and actual dribbling morons on display is both scary and a scandal. Then you have the quality of our politicians. Politics the world over tends to attract power mongers and often moronic ones, but our particular variety are often in a league of their own for gombeenism.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Right few things from this.

• Italians are testing a lot in most regions. Hence picking up community transmission. They are testing anyone with connections to infected regardless of symptoms. Fair play.
• roughly 50 % of people who tested positive in the affected region are in hospital. Could be due to isolation could be due to needing care. Don't know.
• ~7% in main affected regions are in intensive care.
• What's interesting is you can see the testing base on which cases are detected so you can't dismiss this by saying sampling bias. i.e you are only looking at sick people.

Any other analysis welcome?

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The unrecorded cases is a bit of an urban legend really. Italy has taken thousands of swats and most of them returned negative results, the positive ones may have mild symptoms, but even then they could get worse over time. I think it's time accept reality about the death rate at this point

That's 50% of people who have it in hospital.
in most affected region.

I'm sure it'll be grand but stop spreading false information in the hope it'll be grand.

Pseudonym121

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Yes people shouldn't panic.
But saying 80% will be mild or no symptoms? Define mild? I've seen multiples of these cases described as being mild and having developed pneumonia in the same sentance. That's anything but mild compared to no symptoms.

Mild meaning they won’t die and won’t need hospital admission to treat the complications of infection.

Iow a patient with COVID19 with underlying asthma who gets antibiotics to prevent/treat a superimposed bacterial pneumonia but who doesn’t need supplementary oxygen etc.

Sure that isn’t nothing but it doesn’t need hospitalisation and their life won’t be in danger. The general public often feels any illness they have is severe for understandable reasons but medical professionals do need to categorise things as mild to severe in order to ensure we allocate resources appropriately for the greater good of the greatest number of people.

So, not a walk in the park but the other 15 to 20% will be much sicker and will need support / treatment in hospital.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The unrecorded cases is a bit of an urban legend really. Italy has taken thousands of swats and most of them returned negative results, the positive ones may have mild symptoms, but even then they could get worse over time. I think it's time accept reality about the death rate at this point

We simply don’t have enough information to call it reality at this stage.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Nijmegen wrote: »

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/03/05/what-the-world-has-learned-about-facing-covid-19M

Really interesting and balanced piece in this weeks edition of The Economist (if you have used your free articles with them just open in an incognito window). Couple of things that keep arising as discussion points in this thread:

-What you test you find. South Korea is testing 10,000 cases per day. As of March 1, the US had tested fewer than 500 - and some of the tests were faulty. Reported numbers there are going to soar and in any country really that isn’t testing widely, ala drive thru tests and what have you.

-Transparency in information contains the spread. In South Korea details released have led to at least one extra marital affair being revealed. But people know where not to go and they know that if they spread it, they’ll suffer a personal consequence. So don’t go somewhere there has been transmission and drive social isolation. Sounds harsh, but the virus doesn’t care about social morals.

Boo, 404 error.

gabeeg

Christian Drosten, the head of the virology department at Berlin’s Charité clinics told the ‘Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung’ daily, up to a quarter million Germans would possibly die from the virus. In order for the Coronavirus to stop spreading, two thirds of all Germans needed to be immune, at least temporarily, meaning more than 55 million people would have to be infected first for that to happen.

https://berlinspectator.com/2020/03/06/coronavirus-in-germany-number-of-cases-triples-in-48-hours/

Comhrá

Just wondering....could anyone hazard a guess as to how many Irish people have returned from holidays in Northern Italy in the last two or three weeks?

I haven't heard anyone in the media mention numbers who have recently returned or even how many are currently there?

It gives cause for concern if people are still travelling freely between Italy and Ireland.

eviltimeban

But didn't a Chinese doctor state that a mild case "It could be just as small as a sore throat. Then one day, two days, it’s gone"?

In this New York Times article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/world/asia/coronavirus-treament-recovery.html

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Italy playing out slightly differently regarding numbers.

• First column = recovering in hospital
• Second = Intensive care
• Third = home isolation
• Fourth = recovered
• 5th = dead
• 6th = Tested

Large variation by region but figures are frightening.



Source(Civil protection ITtaly https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/03/news/coronavirus_mattarella_firma_decreto_legge-250077895/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I250147512-C12-P2-S7.3-T1)


https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OZR7G/1/#embed

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The unrecorded cases is a bit of an urban legend really. Italy has taken thousands of swats and most of them returned negative results, the positive ones may have mild symptoms, but even then they could get worse over time. I think it's time accept reality about the death rate at this point

This has since been updated and the number of people in intensive care in Lombardy alone is 243 which is roughly equal to our total ICU capacity.

Don't panic, nothing to see here.

DrumSteve

Personally, I think we will be grand on the oxygen front; i.e. the 15% of people that go to hospital that need additional oxygen will get it. I'd imagine a lot of the 50% hospitalised in Italy are in there due to that.

The issue comes for people who progress on to the need for ICU.

BLIZZARD7

Wibbs wrote: »

Eh you do realise you can have mild pneumonia? People hear "pneumonia" or even "influenza" and assume/believe near death's door. Again for the "you'd know if you really had flu" brigade; one third of people confirmed infected with influenza viruses show no symptoms. The amount of hysteria and lack of basic knowledge on show is nearly as scary as the Covid virus itself. Then again I can near guarantee there are people reading this who believe antibiotics fight viruses.

Ehh yes I have had viral pneumonia before. I wouldn't describe the symptoms as 'mild' compared to every other time I've been sick. I wasn't hospitalized but hey, it wasn't the common cold like symptoms most people think of when they hear 'mild'.

Also for the record, I am neither immunocompromised or in an at risk group. I have family members who are though and understand this isn't the flu we are dealing with.

RandomName2

seamus wrote: »

You can't assume the same infection rates tbh. Different type of virus, different transmission vectors.

We already know it doesn't spread as easily as the 'flu.

You also can't assume the 2% fatality rate holds true because we have no idea how many carriers are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. Practically all testing carried out so far has been through voluntary presentation.

In absolute numbers most people won't have been voluntary presentation. How many people in China have voluntarily presented themselves for diagnosis? That's where most of our figures come from.

You could say that 2% is conservative, because that's with a fully efficient health service. We have 250 ICU beds in the country. That is the number of severe cases we can adequately cope with (well, less, given that some of those beds would be needed for other complaints).

2% fatality is the reasonable assumption without further information. Anything higher or lower is currently unwarranted.

Straffan1979

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You clearly don't understand the gravity of the situation if you think there is fear mongering here.

Where is the fear mongering?

We are facing a serious situation. There is no getting around that and honest commentary is only fear mongering to a generation whose biggest concern until now has probably been what to wear to a party.

Fear mongering?

Give me a break.

In the last 5 minutes here....

-Oh You don’t only get COVID19 you know.... you’ll Pneumonia and permanent ‘fibrosis’ in your lungs- all the terminology from Dr Google on show...sure why do Doctors/Consultants bother going to college for 8-10 years

- even if you recover you won’t recover from the ‘fibrosis’ because that’s permanent lung damage

- this isn’t COVID 19 ... it’s a combination of SARS and HIV/AIDS... you basically get AIDS from this.


It’s frightening what’s going on here- I’m genuinely getting worried re the above hysteria and the effect on the public mood- are we resigned to our fate now.....

Pseudonym121

YFlyer wrote: »

Will they pay the interns? They got to work a ridiculous amount when the nurses went on strike.

Well I’m not at the policy level but if people work the social contract is they get paid so I’m assuming they’ll be paid. It’s be stupid not to pay them as that would increase absenteeism.

Plus on a basic level they need to pay for petrol to get to work etc to work helping care for others.

odyssey06

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Mild meaning they won’t die and won’t need hospital admission to treat the complications of infection.
Iow a patient with COVID19 with underlying asthma who gets antibiotics to prevent/treat a superimposed bacterial pneumonia but who doesn’t need supplementary oxygen etc.

If not in hospital just wondering where will they be able to access this level of non-acute medical care \ be diagnosed?

At the moment GP surgeries don't seem to be involved in that level of care?

timmyntc

timmyntc wrote: »

The idea that anyone with Covid19 is near deaths door is false.
The idea that most of the people with Covid19 are so mild its like a cold/they dont even realise they have it, is also, false.

The WHO report clearly outlined that the myth of loads of undetected mild cases is exactly that - a myth. Widespread testing in China didnt uncover these mild cases, because they dont exist.
When they use "mild" as in 80% of all cases are mild, they just mean that its not severe enough to include ARDS, Dyspnea, >30 breaths per minute, etc.

Read the WHO report, it clearly defines the criteria for mild vs severe. Its not as grand as you seem to think. This mentality of 80% mild, be grand, take no precautions has got to stop.

You raise a very good point here.

It's tricky, people are using 80% figure as mild cases when in reality, it is mild to moderate cases. Moderate cases can include pneumonia which complicates the picture. My understanding is that you would expect the majority of mild to moderate cases to survive at home unless they developed complications.