Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Kermit.de.frog

caveat emptor wrote: »

This has since been updated and the number of people in intensive care in Lombardy alone is 243 which is roughly equal to our total ICU capacity.

Don't panic, nothing to see here.

I have said it so many times - you get idiots (and they are idiots) saying but "the flu...this and that"....without understanding what the actual problem is.

The flu is built in to our health systems and our medicines. It's accounted for and we deal with it year after year.

This is built in to neither - it is new - we don't have immune systems to deal with it and it will mutate like all viruses.

I can not get my head around how some don't get this? How they don't understand the consequences for health systems around the world.

It's astounding.

MOR316

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We are facing a serious situation. There is no getting around that and honest commentary is only fear mongering to a generation whose biggest concern until now has probably been what to wear to a party.

Black jeans if anyone is interested

lainey_d_123

New Home wrote: »

One thing they did say yesterday during the press conference is that a test can be positive, but it cannot be negative, it can only say that the virus has not been detected (as in, it can't confirm that you definitely don't have it, only that it wasn't able to find it).

That's literally the same as any test ever.

leahyl

Ninthlife wrote: »

Id imagine CUH has 100's

Losing 60 seems a hell of alot

Sure they're looking for more staff as it is The last thing they need up there now.

Lobsterlady

Dublin Comic Con on the weekend after next. What to do....I'm sure most people will be wearing anime masks, or some face covering get up!

Cody montana

Just got given a talk about the Coronavirus at work.

Washing hands a priority.

Knex*

Deleted User wrote: »

You raise a very good point here.

It's tricky, people are using 80% figure as mild cases when in reality, it is mild to moderate cases. Moderate cases can include pneumonia which complicates the picture. My understanding is that you would expect the majority of mild to moderate cases to survive at home unless they developed complications.

And this stuff about fibrosis of the lungs post infection, do we know enough to say that's for severe cases and not the mild & moderate?

Seems a bit mental to me that people who have relatively mild symptoms could be in danger of long term lung damage. Is that notion a bit hysterical, or do we know enough to adequately say?

Wibbs

timmyntc wrote: »

The idea that anyone with Covid19 is near deaths door is false.
The idea that most of the people with Covid19 are so mild its like a cold/they dont even realise they have it, is also, false.

The WHO report clearly outlined that the myth of loads of undetected mild cases is exactly that - a myth. Widespread testing in China didnt uncover these mild cases, because they dont exist.
When they use "mild" as in 80% of all cases are mild, they just mean that its not severe enough to include ARDS, Dyspnea, >30 breaths per minute, etc.

Read the WHO report, it clearly defines the criteria for mild vs severe. Its not as grand as you seem to think. This mentality of 80% mild, be grand, take no precautions has got to stop.

It seems the WHO aren't reading their own reports(not a shock, they're woefully underfunded). EG the cruise ship the Diamond Princess. The infected cruise ships are a good example of a contained observed spread, infection rate and outcome model as we can look to for the moment. For a start all the people on board have been tested, often more than once. And what do we see? over 4000 people tested, 705 confirmed cases and here's the important part; 392 are asymptomatic. That's over half of those positive tests would go undetected by the carriers themselves and people around them. Oh and how many have died so far? Seven? None were under 60, most were over 80. That's not near a 2% death rate, and remember cruise ships aren't exactly known for 20 something passengers lists, it's overwhelmingly arthritic types playing bridge and shuffle board.

So the WHO are incorrect in stating that the asymptomatic carrier is a myth, because the same WHO have access to the stats on that ship and others.


There's even a wiki page you can confirm the above on.

piplip87

Corona virus town hall on atm. There's a fella with the virus on now

New Home

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

That's literally the same as any test ever.

Right, so that GP should have known he wasn't in the clear.

Drumpot

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDelUkpFm60

“Epidemiologist predicts the months ahead”

Good news is he does not think it’s an existential threat to humanity

Bad news is he predicts 40-70% of people are going to get it. I wonder is this why WHO keep bigging up China because a complete shutdown may be the most effective way to deal with this. Dr Bruce Aylward said he wasn’t sure a shutdown would work until he went to China and saw what they were doing.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Straffan1979 wrote: »

In the last 5 minutes here....

-Oh You don’t only get COVID19 you know.... you’ll Pneumonia and permanent ‘fibrosis’ in your lungs- all the terminology from Dr Google on show...sure why do Doctors/Consultants bother going to college for 8-10 years

- even if you recover you won’t recover from the ‘fibrosis’ because that’s permanent lung damage

- this isn’t COVID 19 ... it’s a combination of SARS and HIV/AIDS... you basically get AIDS from this.


It’s frightening what’s going on here- I’m genuinely getting worried re the above hysteria and the effect on the public mood- are we resigned to our fate now.....

It’s bonkers. I honestly think some people are almost getting off on building hysteria.

SeaBreezes

Wibbs wrote: »

Eh you do realise you can have mild pneumonia? People hear "pneumonia" or even "influenza" and assume/believe near death's door. Again for the "you'd know if you really had flu" brigade; one third of people confirmed infected with influenza viruses show no symptoms. The amount of hysteria and lack of basic knowledge on show is nearly as scary as the Covid virus itself. Then again I can near guarantee there are people reading this who believe antibiotics fight viruses.

You know this virus is not flu, right?

Its a combo of SARS/HIV.

They have NO idea what are long term effects yet.
The fibrosis left in the lungs (so far) they think maybe irreversable, but as its so new they dont know that for sure yet either.. hopefully not.

What about the kidney damage? The lesions on the testes? will that have long term effects? They dont know yet.

Right now, they are concentrating on keeping people alive in the short term.
Much much more to learn about this virus, pretending we know anything about it yet is just silly.

A healthy respect of the unknown and a little more panic might prevent people being complacent. Its not hysteria to be informed and to educate yourself.
Its not scaremongering to let people know facts, and let them decide.

Im aghast at the lack of info here, the 80% will just get a mild flu... even children with 'no' symptoms have been left with lesions.

ITS NOT THE FLU.

And if there was a little more scaremongering with the politicians to temp check at airports and aggressively contain this virus, it would have saved us a world of stress and pain.

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

This has since been updated and the number of people in intensive care in Lombardy alone is 243 which is roughly equal to our total ICU capacity.

Don't panic, nothing to see here.

Lombardy has over twice the population of the Republic of Ireland. We also have a far younger population. You aren't comparing like with like.

Also, not everybody in the ICUs in Lombardy will be there for COVID-19 anyway

tuxy

piplip87 wrote: »

Corona virus town hall on atm. There's a fella with the virus on now

I knew it would hit my small town but didn't expect it so soon.
I'll be staying away from the town centre best to drive to Limerick if I need something.

Cilldara_2000

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You clearly don't understand the gravity of the situation if you think there is fear mongering here.

Where is the fear mongering?

We are facing a serious situation. There is no getting around that and honest commentary is only fear mongering to a generation whose biggest concern until now has probably been what to wear to a party.

Fear mongering?

Give me a break.

The post you replied to didn't even mention fear mongering per se. "hype,fear and anxiety" were the actual words used. There's much of it on display here.

I think I will stop reading this thread myself tbh. There's far too much misinformation, speculation, pure bull****, and expectation of way beyond the worst case scenarios that the majority of experts expect.

I will continue to follow the advice and take reasonable precautions. I won't slide into panic and worry over stuff I have no control over. I urge everyone else to do the same.

thebaz

given the Italian outbreak , source of most of our outbreak , Why are we are we still allowing flights come in from Italy (bar emergencies) ??

This weekend ther will be loads extra Italians arriving in Dublin congregating in the city centre, nightclubs , bars and public transport , for a game postponed 2 weeks ago due to Covid19.
how is this helping contain the outbreak - A leading Doctor in Galway is highlighting this and no one seams to be acting , just telling us doomsday scenarios and yet not taking decisive safe action - Can not comprehend this reasoning unless its EU bureaucratic directives :-
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/we-must-act-decisively-to-stop-virus-and-that-means-halting-flights-from-northern-italy-now-39020356.html

tillyfilly

I've read reports from sufferers in affected regions of northern Italy that singing happy birthday to yourself twice while washing your hands has not prevented infection, does it need to be in English to work? Does Any body know if this actually works or is it a hoax?

timmyntc

Wibbs wrote: »

It seems the WHO aren't reading their own reports(not a shock, they're woefully underfunded). EG the cruise ship the Diamond Princess. The infected cruise ships are a good example of a contained observed spread, infection rate and outcome model as we can look to for the moment. For a start all the people on board have been tested, often more than once. And what do we see? over 4000 people tested, 705 confirmed cases and here's the important part; 392 are asymptomatic. That's over half of those positive tests would go undetected by the carriers themselves and people around them. Oh and how many have died so far? Seven? None were under 60, most were over 80. That's not near a 2% death rate, and remember cruise ships aren't exactly known for 20 something passengers lists, it's overwhelmingly arthritic types playing bridge and shuffle board.

So the WHO are incorrect in stating that the asymptomatic carrier is a myth, because the same WHO have access to the stats on that ship and others.


There's even a wiki page you can confirm the above on.

Asymptomatic people tend to develop symptoms after the fact - they are presymptomatic not asymptomatic for the lifetime of the illness.
Again, covered in the WHO report.

The mortality rate on the ship is a good point. A complete guess here, but I would say that the viral load has some say in your outcome (i.e. how much of the virus you are first infected with).
As all diamond princess people were kept in their rooms, likely there wasn't much exposure to the virus, but obviously still some exposure hence them testing positive/developing symptoms.

MuffinsDa

piplip87 wrote: »

Corona virus town hall on atm. There's a fella with the virus on now

Town hall as in at work?
"Fella with the virus on" meaning ...?

drunkmonkey

RandomName2 wrote: »

In absolute numbers most people won't have been voluntary presentation. How many people in China have voluntarily presented themselves for diagnosis? That's where most of our figures come from.

You could say that 2% is conservative, because that's with a fully efficient health service. We have 250 ICU beds in the country. That is the number of severe cases we can adequately cope with (well, less, given that some of those beds would be needed for other complaints).

2% fatality is the reasonable assumption without further information. Anything higher or lower is currently unwarranted.

A HSE offical when asked by Ivan Yates the other day "What happens if 100 people get sick with Chronavirus?'
His answer "20% of that 100 will require hospitalisation, so we could just about handle 20 in ICU around the country"

So we may have 250 ICU beds, but anything more than 20 critical patients will tip the system over the edge.

Funsterdelux

Cody montana wrote: »

Just got given a talk about the Coronavirus at work.

Washing hands a priority.

Did it go like this:

When a guy virus and a girl virus are in love......

Kermit.de.frog

Guardian live blog

Adviser to Iran's foreign minister dies of coronavirus


An adviser to Iran’s foreign minister who took part in the 1979 US embassy hostage crisis has died from coronavirus, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Hossein Sheikholeslam, “a veteran and revolutionary diplomat” died late Thursday, IRNA said.

Iran has been scrambling to contain the rapid spread of coronavirus which so far has infected 3,513 people and killed at least 107 people in the Islamic republic.

What do you say about Iran at this stage?

Just a flu.

piplip87

MuffinsDa wrote: »

Town hall as in at work?
"Fella with the virus on" meaning ...?

Apologies. Town hall on CNN. They have a fella on who is in an isolation unit

Loafing Oaf

thebaz wrote: »

given the Italian outbreak , source of most of our outbreak , Why are we are we still allowing flights come in from Italy (bar emergencies) ??

This weekend ther will be loads extra Italians arriving in Dublin congregating in the city centre, nightclubs , bars and public transport , for a game postponed 2 weeks ago due to Covid19.
how is this helping contain the outbreak - A leading Doctor in Galway is highlighting this and no one seams to be acting , just telling us doomsday scenarios and yet not taking decisive safe action - Can not comprehend this reasoning unless its EU bureaucratic directives :-
https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/we-must-act-decisively-to-stop-virus-and-that-means-halting-flights-from-northern-italy-now-39020356.html

RESTRICTING FLIGHTS ARRIVING from northern Italy “wouldn’t be effective”, according to Health Minister Simon Harris.

Speaking on RTɒs News at One, the health minister said suspending flights from the affected Italian areas would not work for “a variety reasons”, stating that it would not prevent people from those areas arriving into Ireland through other member states.

https://www.thejournal.ie/coronavirus-travel-5032358-Mar2020/

banie01

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Ehh yes I have had viral pneumonia before. I wouldn't describe the symptoms as 'mild' compared to every other time I've been sick. I wasn't hospitalized but hey, it wasn't the common cold like symptoms most people think of when they hear 'mild'.

Also for the record, I am neither immunocompromised or in an at risk group. I have family members who are though and understand this isn't the flu we are dealing with.

Just on the pneumonia and it's seriousness.

I managed to contract double pneumonia as a healthy fit 22y.o living in the Canaries.

Wasn't hospitalised, but was bed bound on IV meds and with an oxygen bottle at home.
Was visited daily by doctor and @ every 4hrs by a nurse.

New Home

New Home wrote: »

Right, so that GP should have known he wasn't in the clear.

I am glad we are going on to victim-shaming/blaming. This GP is a real person. You don't actually know what part of Italy he was in (and if the advice was to self isolate) . Have a bit of compassion.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I have said it so many times - you get idiots (and they are idiots) saying but "the flu...this and that"....without understanding what the actual problem is.

The flu is built in to our health systems and our medicines. It's accounted for and we deal with it year after year.

This is built in to neither - it is new - we don't have immune systems to deal with it and it will mutate like all viruses.

I can not get my head around how some don't get this? How they don't understand the consequences for health systems around the world.

It's astounding.

But very slowly apparently. That’s not a big concern.

Snow Garden

Wibbs wrote: »

To be fair SB, we're talking about the Irish civil service here. Having dealt with various arms of same down the years, I have found those nearer the front lines to be mostly good, even exceptional, when you get further up the chain the level of jobsworths and actual dribbling morons on display is both scary and a scandal. Then you have the quality of our politicians. Politics the world over tends to attract power mongers and often moronic ones, but our particular variety are often in a league of their own for gombeenism.

Very well put. I don't think people grasp how poor our senior public service managers are. Especially if they are homegrown from within the public service. Add the lack of accountability to the public sector mentality and you are getting nowhere fast. Once in a while a decent minister comes in and tries to shake things up but it always ends up in a mire while the senior public servants wait for the minister to move on.

Kermit.de.frog

drunkmonkey wrote: »

A HSE offical when asked by Ivan Yates the other day "What happens if 100 people get sick with Chronavirus?'
His answer "20% of that 100 will require hospitalisation, so we could just about handle 20 in ICU around the country"

So we may have 250 ICU beds, but anything more than 20 critical patients will tip the system over the edge.

This. We develop an outbreak like Italy here and the country is done.

Simple as that.