Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Duke of Url

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Its a combo of SARS/HIV..

Wibbs

timmyntc wrote: »

The mortality rate on the ship is a good point. A complete guess here, but I would say that the viral load has some say in your outcome (i.e. how much of the virus you are first infected with).
As all diamond princess people were kept in their rooms, likely there wasn't much exposure to the virus, but obviously still some exposure hence them testing positive/developing symptoms.

A complete guess is right. Of course viral load will have an impact on whether someone is infected and the outcome of that infection. However if you have a positive test for this virus you are infected enough to be sloughing off viral particles in your mucus membranes. You have the virus, no ifs, buts or maybes.

Funsterdelux

Just a thought, we have plenty of empty/idle industrial units in IDA parks around the country that could be used as temp hospitals. If we had the where with all to do it.

Use them for either isolating the patients with the virus or for unrelated less serious conditions.

Civil defense/Army could help out.

YFlyer

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Well I’m not at the policy level but if people work the social contract is they get paid so I’m assuming they’ll be paid. It’s be stupid not to pay them as that would increase absenteeism.

Plus on a basic level they need to pay for petrol to get to work etc to work helping care for others.

My apologies.

I was thinking of those that are still in college.

DrumSteve

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

That’s only correct if you assume no actions will be taken to create either
A. Additional capacity
B. empty ICU beds ( routine ops etc will start to be cancelled shortly )
C. All patients admitted to hospital with this will need ventilation - this assumption is incorrect. Less than half of those will need ventilation as opposed to supplementary oxygen, fluids etc


I have explained the maths re: the number of concurrent cases in the community before our number of ventilators gets overwhelmed earlier in the thread.

Can you sticky this bit at the start of the thread for people who are hard of reading.

Only the most critical cases require ventilation.

Stone Deaf 4evr

tillyfilly wrote: »

I've read reports from sufferers in affected regions of northern Italy that singing happy birthday to yourself twice while washing your hands has not prevented infection, does it need to be in English to work? Does Any body know if this actually works or is it a hoax?

no, you should be singing 'november rain' by guns and roses.

MadYaker

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Quotes please.

Line them up.

Bet you can't.

Quotes of what? People posting sh1te from twitter?

You're dead right i can't, were thread 4 ffs

tillyfilly

TomSweeney wrote: »

Lads I'm in Spain with 282 cases and 3 deaths, 7 critical ... Ireland has 13, 0 deaths , 0 critical - relax !!!

we are in a European situation, its not a national situation, when you bring it home we will be fooked

Longing

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Jesus fucking christ. Stop spreading such misinformation. A little knowledge surely is a bad thing.

Stop cursing my God.

Tacitus Kilgore

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This. We develop an outbreak like Italy here and the country is done.

Simple as that.

WHAT ARE WE DONE WITH KERMIT?


Done like - completed it mate? or done like - thunderdome done?

Funsterdelux

TomSweeney wrote: »

Lads I'm in Spain with 282 cases and 3 deaths, 7 critical ... Ireland has 13, 0 deaths , 0 critical - relax !!!

Yeah, I cant see it getting any worse


Not

Kermit.de.frog

MadYaker wrote: »

Quotes of what? People posting sh1te from twitter?

Yes.

You have made an accusation that it is all "twitter bullsh!t".

So come on then.

Quotes or GTFO.

freshpopcorn

Pseudonym121

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This. We develop an outbreak like Italy here and the country is done.

Simple as that.

That’s a bit excessive. Even if we had the reasonable worst case scenario of 50k dead we wouldn’t be done and we are likely to have significantly less than that. I still think it is most likely to be between 1000 to 2000 dead in Ireland over the next 12 months with an upper moderate case bound of 5000 as 50k is what happens if steps governments and health authorities take really don’t work.

The more we handwashing, the more people are proactive in self isolating etc etc the more that upper bound is unlikely to be realised.

5,000 dead will be sad and personal tragedies to a lot of families but it will not render the state dysfunctional in either the short or long term. Even 50,000 won’t do that. So this is serious but not an existential threat to society.

GM228

First case reported in the Vatican, I guess there is no divine intervention afterall.

Wibbs

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

Jesus fucking christ. Stop spreading such misinformation.

Reading through this thread there's the very real feeling of some actually getting off on the hysteria, with a few pullin the skeleton outa themselves over it. It's like their lives are so fcuking boring that any excitement ramps them up and this "plague" is a beaut for it. Then again remember when that Garth Brookes fella cancelled his gigs here? Boards went nuts for a while over that non event. The Mob in full flow.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Longing wrote: »

Stop cursing my God.

I won’t. That post deserved it. Jesus wept.

seamus

timmyntc wrote: »

Asymptomatic people tend to develop symptoms after the fact - they are presymptomatic not asymptomatic for the lifetime of the illness.
Again, covered in the WHO report.

The WHO report only really guesses at that though. The numbers of asymptomatic carriers found was very low - because asymptomatic people generally aren't being tested. Those found did tend to develop symptoms, but there was no elaboration on whether they developed differently from the rest of the infected population. Again probably because the numbers were so low.

The mortality rate on the ship is a good point. A complete guess here, but I would say that the viral load has some say in your outcome (i.e. how much of the virus you are first infected with).

Wibbs correctly points out that while the population on the ship was probably skewed towards the elderly and arthritic, there would also be a level of self-selection; those onboard were physically &medically capable of going for a multi-day (multi-week?) cruise without immediate access to medical supplies. This would put a lower bound on just how infirm a passenger can be.
That could go part of the way to explaining the low death rate,

As all diamond princess people were kept in their rooms, likely there wasn't much exposure to the virus, but obviously still some exposure hence them testing positive/developing symptoms.

Allegedly. There was nobody onboard actually enforcing or monitoring the quarantine, no specialists involved guiding the response.
There was considerable criticism about the lack of any segregation between clean and unclean parts of the ship.
I'd say plenty of passengers voluntarily stayed in their rooms, but nobody was forcing it.

Snow Garden

Longing wrote: »

Stop cursing my God.

Son of God?

DrumSteve

GM228 wrote: »

First case reported in the Vatican, I guess there is no divine intervention afterall.

Or maybe there is...

YFlyer

Dr. Chris Luke be on Newstalk now.

Kermit.de.frog

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

WHAT ARE WE DONE WITH KERMIT?


Done like - completed it mate? or done like - thunderdome done?

The latter sadly.

We simply don't have the health infrastructure to deal with anything like an Italy or South Korea sadly. We just don't.

Pseudonym121

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Is there not evidence of two strains already, an L and an s?

Be careful, that’s a hot button topic for the attack dogs around here.

Wibbs

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

5,000 dead will be sad and personal tragedies to a lot of families but it will not render the state dysfunctional in either the short or long term. Even 50,000 won’t do that. So this is serious but not an existential threat to society.

But, but... where can I go to get off on hysteria porn P?

Ribs1234

I’m guessing the HSe is waiting for a critical mass of cases before a shut down - that way the 2 week shut down would be most effective. No way Irish people would stay away for longer.
Any guesses when that will be?

Straffan1979

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Whose panicking?

You are getting honesty here as far as I can see. There is no censure - nobody has said anything out of the ordinary.

I actually think boards has provided a good resource here and the information has been good overall.

I wasn’t aware we were subject to censure or restrictions on free speech in this country... please advise.

....based on this thread you should go around with a condom on your head because COVID-19 is essentially HIV/AIDS

SeaBreezes

Wibbs wrote: »

Jesus jumpin christ. It is NOT a "combo of SARS/HIV". You are exhibiting a level of ignorance that is scary, though scarier because you have many equally ignorant bedfellows.

You're aghast? Yeah, yeah, we get it, it's not the flu and save for a few morons, nobody is saying it is.


Eh, you really need to up your reading comprehension. These are people who have tested positive for weeks, including many who have flushed the virus from their system, symptom free, or very mild.

Yes, it is.
Chinese doctors say autopsies of coronavirus victims suggest the deadly illness is “like a combination of SARS and AIDS” that can cause “irreversible” lung damage even if the patient recovers.

The grim finding was reported on by Communist Party mouthpiece the Global Times on Friday, after a paper by Wuhan doctors published in the Journal of Forensic Medicine earlier in the week went viral on Chinese social media.

“The influence of COVID-19 on the human body is like a combination of SARS and AIDS as it damages both the lungs and immune systems,” Peng Zhiyong, director of the intensive care unit of the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University in Wuhan, told the Global Times.

Dr Peng was commenting on the paper by Liu Liang, a forensic specialist from the Tongji Medical College at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, whose team had conducted nine autopsies of coronavirus patients as of February 24.

“The autopsy results Liu shared inspired me a lot. Based on the results, I think the most important thing now is to take measures at an early stage of the disease to protect patients’ lungs from irreversible fibrosis,” Dr Peng told the outlet.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/chinese-doctors-say-coronavirus-like-a-combination-of-sars-and-aids-can-cause-irreversible-lung-damage/news-story/f58f19c5eeae99b845c54e2d2b9305ca



Latest coronavirus research by a team of researchers from Nankai University in Tianjin lead by Professor Ruan Jishou, a prominent virologists and genomicist have discovered that the new SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus that causes the Covid-19 disease has a mutated gene that is found in HIV virus. It is this unique feature that sets it aside from the rest of the known coronaviruses.
The study is published this week on Chinaxiv.org, a platform used by the Chinese Academy of Sciences to release scientific research papers before they have been peer-reviewed .( http://www.chinaxiv.org/abs/202002.00082)

These findings have huge implications on the potency of the coronavirus and also what it can cause in humans, not just the Covid-19 disease. Furthermore, the Covid-19 disease should never be compared to like the common cold or influenza virus as this new coronavirus is in a separate league of its own.

Though it has not been peer reviewed, two other studies including one in Europe has confirmed the findings.

The combined findings from the three studies indicates that because of the HIV-like mutations, its ability to bind with human cells could be as much as 1,000 times more potent that the initial SARS virus of 2003.

The findings also indicate that the new SARS-CoV-2 has a ‘dual attack’ approach of binding to human cells.

The first is via the ACE2 receptors found on human cell membranes and it’s a typical mode of most coronaviruses. (The new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has a plus 80 percent genomic matching to the previous SARS virus, hence it explains this property that it possesses)

However it must be noted that the ACE2 protein does not occur in large quantities in healthy people, and this partly helped to limit the scale of the SARS outbreak of 2002/2003 which infected close to 8,000 people globally.

As the findings of the new study indicates that the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has a mutated gene similarly found on the HIV virus, it is also able to attack human cells via the target called furin, which is an enzyme that works as a protein activator in the human body. Typically many proteins are inactive or dormant when they are produced and have to be “cut” at specific points to activate their various functions which furin does in the human cellular pathways.

Professor Ruan Jishou and his team at Nankai University in Tianjin discovered this new property of the SARS-CoV-2 when they were doing genome sequencing of the new coronavirus found a section of mutated genes that did not exist in the original SARS virus, but were similar to those found in HIV.

Professor Ruan Jishou told Thailand Medical News via a phone interview, “This finding suggests that 2019-nCoV coronavirus may be significantly different from the SARS coronavirus in the infection pathway and has the added potency of using the packing mechanisms of other viruses such as HIV.”
Another research conducted also this month, by Professor Li Hua , another prominent virologist and genetic specialists, and his team from Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, Hubei province, also confirmed Professor Ruan’s findings. http://www.chinaxiv.org/abs/202002.00062

The study indicated that the HIV-like gene found on the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus was not detected on any of the other coronaviruses including the MERS, original SARS and even the Bat-CoVRaTG13, a bat coronavirus that was considered the original source of the new coronavirus with 96 per cent similarity in genes.

Professor Li told Thailand Medical News,” This is maybe why the SARS-CoV-2 is more infectious than the other known coronaviruses.”
A European a study by French scientist professor Dr Etienne Decroly at Aix-Marseille University in France, which was published in the scientific journal Antiviral Research , also found a “furin-like cleavage site” that is absent in similar coronaviruses, thus confirming the initial findings as well. (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32057769)


https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-latestcoronavirus-research-reveals-that-the-virus-has-mutated-gene-similar-to-hiv-and-is-1,000-times-more-potent-

MadYaker

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes.

You have made an accusation that it is all "twitter bullsh!t".

So come on then.

Quotes or GTFO.

I never said it was all twitter bullsh!t, I said it was mostly bullsh!t from twitter.

gozunda

The case for suspending flights to and from northern Italy. 

The Irish government recommends that citizens avoid travel to affected regions in northern Italy but continues to allow unregulated access to Ireland from these areas, despite the fact that both index cases arose following the return of individuals from northern Italy. They speak of containment of the virus but are failing to take the most obvious containment measure, that of stopping air travel from these areas. 

Dr Carmen Regan - Consultant Senior Lecturer at the Royal College of Surgeons Ireland

https://amp.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/we-cannot-afford-to-have-an-influx-of-potentially-infected-individuals-obstetricians-plea-39015974.html

Tacitus Kilgore

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The latter sadly.

We simply don't have the health infrastructure to deal with anything like an Italy or South Korea sadly. We just don't.

You need to calm tf down dude, read what you're saying.