Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

quokula

https://twitter.com/NCStinn/status/1235238858020843522

banie01

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Yes but operations will be cancelled and efforts will be made to ensure ICU beds aren’t used for anything elective.

Just out of curiosity, and noting the difference between various categories of high dependency bed such as CC, and enhanced care.

How many of our ICU beds would be taken up by care post elective surgery?

I do get that post op recovery and other areas are high dependency beds and may even have ventilation available.
But
How much ICU capacity can actually be freed up by rejigging elective surgeries?

MadYaker

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

People need to wise up fast if they think that can't happen here

You keep saying the same thing over and over but you can't back it up. What line of reasoning did you follow to arrive at that conclusion?

VinLieger

runawaybishop wrote: »

Banning flights doesn't work, quarantine does.

We dont need quarantine if we ban flights.....

Woke Hogan

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Hearing people were exposed at a recording of the Blindboy podcast in Clare last weekend. A dreadfully unfunny evening all round for the audience.

Probably the only comedy show where a “infectious laughter” pun wouldn’t apply.

tobefrank321

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Nothing at all, but there is a big difference from hopping on a 19.99 flight down the road and having to travel 500 miles to another airport to get a flight. The point about containment and delay is making it difficult for people to travel from infected regions. The Chinese have done it really well. Personally I think only a Hubei style isolation of most of Northern Italy is going to solve this. If the Chinese can isolate a province of 50 million, it shouldn't be too hard to do the same in Northern Italy. Its proven to work.

The EU need to take leadership.

This healthcare professional is calling for a ban on flights from Northern Italy. Clearly she's not buying into the 'its too late' approach.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/we-must-act-decisively-to-stop-virus-and-that-means-halting-flights-from-northern-italy-now-39020356.html

SafeSurfer

One quarter of the world’s population currently has TB. Mostly in poorer developing countries. About 90% of these have latent as opposed to active TB. Would those with latent TB be in a high risk group if they become infected with Covid 19?

We had tens of thousands of deaths in Ireland from TB in fairly recent histories. A few generations ago and Irish society did not collapse. Life continued pretty much as normal.

the butcher

Belgium reports 59 new cases of coronavirus, doubling the country's total to 109 - this was always going to be the case considering they are such an international hub.

Nijmegen

Nijmegen wrote: »

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/03/05/what-the-world-has-learned-about-facing-covid-19

Really interesting and balanced piece in this weeks edition of The Economist (if you have used your free articles with them just open in an incognito window). Couple of things that keep arising as discussion points in this thread:

-What you test you find. South Korea is testing 10,000 cases per day. As of March 1, the US had tested fewer than 500 - and some of the tests were faulty. Reported numbers there are going to soar and in any country really that isn’t testing widely, ala drive thru tests and what have you.

-Transparency in information contains the spread. In South Korea details released have led to at least one extra marital affair being revealed. But people know where not to go and they know that if they spread it, they’ll suffer a personal consequence. So don’t go somewhere there has been transmission and drive social isolation. Sounds harsh, but the virus doesn’t care about social morals.

Fixed the URL... https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/03/05/what-the-world-has-learned-about-facing-covid-19

Morrisseeee

This is the important stat, so for the vast majority of people, don't panic, just think of who you might be spreading it to

AGE|DEATH RATE
80+ years old |14.80%
70-79 years old |8.00%
60-69 years old |3.60%
50-59 years old |1.30%
40-49 years old |0.40%
30-39 years old |0.20%
20-29 years old |0.20%
10-19 years old |0.20%
0-9 years old |no fatalities

tobefrank321

runawaybishop wrote: »

Banning flights doesn't work, quarantine does.

We neither banned flights or put a quarantine on returning travellers from northern Italy.

Its far simpler to ban flights from an infected region than quarantine people, but both should be brought in.

Its blatently clear the HSE have already lost track of contacts in their contact tracing because of the sheer number. Those infected who returned from Italy had multiple interactions, many of whom we have no idea about. How the hell do you trace who you were sitting beside in the airport departure lounge? Or who went into the toilet on the plane after you? Or who you queue with at departure? Or checked your passport. And so on.

You can't trace all those people, its impossible. And they've all been put at risk.

Air transport has been the key driver of our coronavirus spread in Ireland - simple fact.

Kermit.de.frog

MadYaker wrote: »

You keep saying the same thing over and over but you can't back it up. What line of reasoning did you follow to arrive at that conclusion?

It only takes a cluster and then human to human infection and you have a crisis.

Italy with a superior health system couldn't stop it. They are in crisis.

How would the Irish people feel if there was 500 cases here in one day?

That could happen unless we take action now to prevent it.

Even if we do it can still happen.

Duke of Url

First coronavirus vaccine trial in the US is recruiting volunteers

Researchers in Seattle have begun recruiting healthy volunteers to participate in a clinical trial for an experimental COVID-19 vaccine, according to news reports.

The vaccine, developed by the biotechnology company Moderna Therapeutics, was initially sent to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) in Maryland on Feb. 24, according to The Wall Street Journal. The agency anticipates launching a clinical trial by the end of April and will sponsor the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute to conduct the testing, NIAID Director Anthony Fauci told The Wall Street Journal.

https://www.livescience.com/us-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-recruiting.html

Pseudonym121

dan786 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235882962996080640?s=20

And that’s only the tip of the iceberg there. It looks like Iran might a country which follows the reasonable worst case trajectory due to government denial. There’s fascinating imagery of the location of cases which really shows it has simply spread across their road network from Qoms. They’re riddled in a manner unlike any other country (except maybe North Korea) by now. Plus even the figure they let out are huge underestimated.

dublin99

Can we learn anything from the 3 cities with close proximity to China that all report cases very earlier on in January?

1.Macau had 10 cases and none in the past month.

2.Hong Kong has 107 cases to date, almost all traceable, including 10 passengers of the Diamond Princess.

3.Singapore has 117 to date, most associated with clusters nd traceable.

Whilst these cities have not experienced exponential spread in the community despite the high population density, they have now been overtaken by late starters like the UK, Germany, France (even if we consider Italy, S Korea and Iran as special situations). What do they have in common?

AWARENESS and face masks. They all went through SARS. EVERYONE wears a mask in these cities. Although experts say masks are useless, they do stop the spread in community from asymptomatic/ pre-sypmtomatic/ patients with mild symptoms who think they have a cold.

In addition, a mask provides some protection from droplets if someone sneezes or cough in close proximity eg on public transport. Most importantly, if you are wearing a mask, you are less likely to (unconsciously) touch your mouth and nose. That is reinforcing the importance of hand hygiene as you may well have touched a contaminated surface.

The truth is they know there aren't enough masks to go around so they say it is useless.

quokula

the butcher wrote: »

Stop wasting the valuable space on these threads with inane nonsense.

You can tell the vast majority on this thread want to see the number of cases and track them across the threads. People can discuss the increases/decreases and make observations. You seem hell bent on attacking posters for relaying the information which has zero benefit to the discussion.

1. Irish case/numbers/discussion is top of the list
2. Rest of the world case/numbers/discussion
3. Research/reports
4. Discussion on preparation / general advice / adhoc
5. Linked issues tied in with the coronavirus outbreak (economic/social fallout)

So far you hardly hit any of those 5.

There is equal value in giving some perspective and realism to calm the over the top panic and anxiety.

It's a tired metaphor but it's still valid as even in Italy road deaths are still outnumbering coronavirus deaths - what you're describing is like a discussion on road accidents where people were forced to list every single accident, injury and death that happened in the entire world as it happens, and anyone trying to point out that not all journeys end in death get shut down.

Nijmegen

Duke of Url wrote: »

First coronavirus vaccine trial in the US is recruiting volunteers



https://www.livescience.com/us-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-recruiting.html

You'd have to pay me to enter a human trial of a vaccine developed that fast.

Of course being America, land of the healthcare impoverished, that's exactly what'll happen. Load of poor people tested and signing away their rights in a waiver, and who cares what happens to them. Kinda like the nuns and the industrial schools back in the day.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/06/coronavirus-update-latest-live-news-symptoms-cases-global-infection-rate-uk-usa-australia-italy-china-updates

Iranian authorities have warned that they may use force to limit travel between cities, as the country reported 1,234 new cases of the coronavirus in the past 24 hours, a huge jump that takes the confirmed total to 4,747.

At a televised news conference, health ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour also said the death toll had risen to 124. He did not elaborate on the threat to use force, though he acknowledged the virus now was in all of Iran’s 31 provinces.

saabsaab

MadYaker wrote: »

I don't agree with that I think there's more than enough blame to go around. He's a medical professional ffs how could he have thought that was ok? Regardless of what he was told he should be sacked if he isn't already, along with whoever gave him the adivice and if anyone he's found to have infected dies charges should be brought against him, extreme negligence.

I see that you are angry about this and that's understandable but he was following the (wrong) recommendations at the time and he can't and shouldn't be sued for it. j
Just think of how he must feel now.

banie01

Morrisseeee wrote: »

This is the important stat, so for the vast majority of people, don't panic, just think of who you might be spreading it to

AGE|DEATH RATE
80+ years old |14.80%
70-79 years old |8.00%
60-69 years old |3.60%
50-59 years old |1.30%
40-49 years old |0.40%
30-39 years old |0.20%
20-29 years old |0.20%
10-19 years old |0.20%
0-9 years old |no fatalities

I'm just after tipping into the 40-49 group.
Not too worried by it causing me significant harm despite having underlying issues.

The arresting and containment of the spread is of more concern tbh.
Protection of the vulnerable and out medical and support staff needs to be prioritized IMO.

I'd hope that the HSE contingency planning includes some degree of mitigation for those who regularly need to attend any OPDs, warfarin clinics or biological meds and Chemo.

Could be a fantastic opportunity for the introduction of tele-medicine and expanding the role of specialist nurse practitioners.

tobefrank321

Deleted User wrote: »

This healthcare professional is calling for a ban on flights from Northern Italy. Clearly she's not buying into the 'its too late' approach.

She is right but she is and will continue to be ignored. Sad really. Its obvious to a 5 year old that travel to and from Northern Italy has to be curtailed immediately.

Its still possible to go online and book a trip directly to Milan or a ski trip to Northern Italy, and this after all we know happened. Its beyond a joke at this stage.

If people want to fly to Munich and drive a couple hundred miles to their ski trip, good luck to them. They deserve to be isolated and ostracised when they come home though for putting everyone else in their community at risk.

Nijmegen

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/06/coronavirus-update-latest-live-news-symptoms-cases-global-infection-rate-uk-usa-australia-italy-china-updates

Shooting down an airliner a few weeks ago and first denying it in the face of all credible evidence as a Western Plot. Then declaring Coronavirus as a Western Plot and getting the country overrun with it. They really are not the brightest bunch running the country. I guess that's what happens when you get promoted for being a loyal stooge of the regime rather than for any other reason.

Pintman Paddy Losty

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Hearing people were exposed at a recording of the Blindboy podcast in Clare last weekend. A dreadfully unfunny evening all round for the audience.

I wouldn't never wish ill will on anyone. I hope that no one actually got infected. But if I had to pick one "comedian" for something like this to happen to, it would definitely be blindboy.

Gael23

Situation in Italy getting fairly serious. 40 people died yesterday alone. Any updates this morning from there?

caveat emptor

SafeSurfer wrote: »

One quarter of the world’s population currently has TB. Mostly in poorer developing countries. About 90% of these have latent as opposed to active TB. Would those with latent TB be in a high risk group if they become infected with Covid 19?

We had tens of thousands of deaths in Ireland from TB in fairly recent histories. A few generations ago and Irish society did not collapse. Life continued pretty much as normal.

Good observation. That's because those who died were in high risk categories (lived in tenements / poverty / squalor) and our imperial master didn't give a ****.

Not comparable but good attempt to shift the Overton window.

Don't ban flights just accept that from now on you have a higher probability of contracting a potentially life changing illness.

silver2020

Deleted User wrote: »

This healthcare professional is calling for a ban on flights from Northern Italy. Clearly she's not buying into the 'its too late' approach.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/we-must-act-decisively-to-stop-virus-and-that-means-halting-flights-from-northern-italy-now-39020356.html

maybe add Nice, Munich, Geneva, Innsbruck, Salzburg, vienna, Ljubijana etc etc - all of which are in very easy reach of Northern Italy.

Then how about trains - you can get from Northern Italy to London by train in 12-14 hours including transfers and it's a very popular route.

I don't think that "heath professional" knows much about how travel goes and it typical of the scum media looking to spread fake sh1te - if you look hard enough you can find someone who will claim black is white.

Irresponsible reporting - but sure its the indo.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It only takes a cluster and then human to human infection and you have a crisis.

Italy with a superior health system couldn't stop it. They are in crisis.

How would the Irish people feel if there was 500 cases here in one day?

That could happen unless we take action now to prevent it.

Even if we do it can still happen.

Up until now, they just haven't been testing enough people to get those results.

The cases just got over 100,000, so happy "that milestone".

cherryghost

Gael23 wrote: »

Situation in Italy getting fairly serious. 40 people died yesterday alone. Any updates this morning from there?

They post updates around 5pm daily

spiritcrusher

caveat emptor wrote: »

Stop misinforming people. Yes there are more cured at this stage then there are in intensive care. However there are approx 2K in hospital now. In Lombardia there are 244 people in intensive care right now. There are 364 recovering at home.

That's 2K in hospital 364 at home. Wonder how many are mild.

We can all use percentages / comparisons to make something sound different.
Here's a good one.

Of the 1777 people who have the disease currently in Lombary 79% are in hospital

Don't take my word for it. Get out the all calculator.




http://www.protezionecivile.gov.it/documents/20182/1221364/Dati+Riepilogo+Nazionale+5marzo2020/a529828b-0bf0-4d5b-ad66-4669d3635a24

Hang on, how did you work that out? My interpretation of that is 244 are in ICU, 1169 are recovered and 364 are isolated at home. Giving a total of 1777 positive cases. So 13% are in hospital...

ThePopehimself

The Irish Times
Wed, Mar 4, 2020, 08:27 Updated: Wed, Mar 4, 2020, 15:52


Coronavirus: Harris warns surge could see some surgeries cancelled


‘We are nowhere near that at this stage,’ says Minister



My friend was contacted by phone late last night to say that her surgery at UHL this morning has been cancelled.