Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Pudsy33

Pudsy33 wrote: »

I don't think any of the confirmed cases were hospitalised bar the chap in Cork who was in there already. Open to correction.

The DOH won’t even give us that info!

random_banter

lalababa wrote: »

Breaking news...7 players showing symptoms in the French rugby camp.

Source?

If at all true, quite a big deal as all French players would have to be isolated, hence the Six Nations would have to finally look at putting a halt to the tournament. And so it would impact (potentially) the travel or non-travel plans of thousands. There has been no firm action out of France/Six Nations yet other than the Irish Govt. telling the IRFU to postpone the Italy game.

jarvis

Let’s say they tested all 60 self isolating CUH staff and they’re a substantial number of positive results. The Irish times tells people it’s substantial. Maybe the people involved haven’t gotten their results so there’s no leaks. They hse says we have 12 new positives and subsequently begin telling the people involved.

Avoids leaks. No data breach.

CinemaGuy45

wadacrack wrote: »

Their are some strange people on this thread with no regard for human life. More worried about winning an online argument that the prospect of a pandemic unfolding

Speaking for myself I was of the opinion from the very start this was going to be really bad.

I take some satisfaction that the message is starting to sink in with some people.

However I really wish I was wrong this is a nightmare.


Maybe do not shoot the messenger because you do not like the message.

Professor Moriarty

South Korea's mortality rate is 0.6% versus the WHO average of 3.4%. This probably because of South Korea's policy of extensive testing. This indicates that the true mortality rate worldwide might be much closer to influenza mortality rates.

iamwhoiam

ZX7R wrote: »

Part of there containment plan.
At the moment it's easier to keep people in hospital while the numbers are low.
At the moment most would be getting an IV and oxygen to keep up the oxygen levels in the blood

Also I would imagine it is to observe the progression of the disease and learn from the patients

Duke of Url

skimpydoo wrote: »

Paddy Cosgrave has the balls our leadership is lacking.

https://twitter.com/tecdr/status/1235988923685507074?s=20

https://twitter.com/paddycosgrave/status/1235976172439302144?s=20

https://twitter.com/paddycosgrave/status/1235955701614342144?s=20

This is deffo not the full story on the reason for cancelling.

Most major corps have put travel bans in place not allowing employees attend corporate events. I believe this is more to do with cancellations then paddy’s conscience.

babybuilder

el Fenomeno wrote: »

I don't think we have to worry about the Dublin parade going ahead. It will be cancelled without doubt. We are a reactive country, with a reactive government (well, if you consider us to have a government currently) and "only" 13 cases is not enough to trigger a cancellation in their eyes.

Next Friday's announcement won't be too far off of the 750-1000 range (an absolutely non-statistical based guess by myself, assuming a 75% increase in confirmed cases each night using my logic of "other countries at early stages aren't far off doubling each day").

A number in that range would be too big to ignore, and unfortunately we'll have multiple deaths confirmed by that stage. Even once we start getting into the low hundreds confirmed, the pressure will be too much and the parade will be cancelled. I'm absolutely sure of it.

Yes but the decision not to cancel today is likely to lull the public into a false sense of security and that it is ok to carry on as normal. A decision to cancel today would reinforce the seriousness of this contagion and would help to get all strata of society to work together.

Strazdas

el Fenomeno wrote: »

I don't think we have to worry about the Dublin parade going ahead. It will be cancelled without doubt. We are a reactive country, with a reactive government (well, if you consider us to have a government currently) and "only" 13 cases is not enough to trigger a cancellation in their eyes.

Next Friday's announcement won't be too far off of the 750-1000 range (an absolutely non-statistical based guess by myself, assuming a 75% increase in confirmed cases each night using my logic of "other countries at early stages aren't far off doubling each day").

A number in that range would be too big to ignore, and unfortunately we'll have multiple deaths confirmed by that stage. Even once we start getting into the low hundreds confirmed, the pressure will be too much and the parade will be cancelled. I'm absolutely sure of it.

I cannot understand the current obsession with the parade and having it cancelled. It's a two hour event on a Tuesday afternoon along a two mile route. Surely Croke Park on a Saturday night would be far more of a health risk.

owlbethere

ChikiChiki wrote: »

No. Some initial studies showing lasting damage.

What if this turns out to be like chickenpox and the virus lives in the body and reactivates like shingles? This disease is still new and unknown. I find it despicable how our governments are not helping and allowing it to spread.

CinemaGuy45

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

South Korea's mortality rate is 0.6% versus the WHO average of 3.4%. This probably because of South Korea's policy of extensive testing. This indicates that the true mortality rate worldwide might be much closer to influenza mortality rates.

However we just do not know yet.

frillyleaf

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Irish people love drama and lime light.They were told a 1000 times not to go to a Doctor, but to call it in, but no, they wanted some drama, their moment of fame.

I wonder if they tried to get tested but were told they didn’t need to be. I don’t think anyone would go to doctor for no good reason when they’ve been told not to

Away With The Fairies

I'm absolutely terrified with this virus. What's the story about social welfare? If I get sick and go out on sick leave for a month, I'm not going to have a job to go back to.

Or if I have to self isolate, am I meant to take myself down to the social welfare office to apply for sick benefit and infect everyone else around me?

I'm just being practical and trying to be as ready as I can be. How does all this work?

Call Me Jimmy

Akabusi wrote: »

I was just thinking that China's hard line approach to dealing with this will be a waste of time. They may have it under control now but with other countries taking a more lax approach it will just end up back there as bad as ever.

Except they are much more resourced and experienced now. They will still have large scale problems but people have to realise how valuable a couple of weeks of less strain on the health system will be. Or what it's like to have some semblance of control.

Still massive problems. Epidemic for them like anyone else but the WHO said if they didn't do what they did they'd have 100,000s more infections by now.

stephenjmcd

Slovakia announces first case today and has now banned all flights from Italy starting Monday

babybuilder

Strazdas wrote: »

I cannot understand the current obsession with the parade and having it cancelled. It's a two hour event on a Tuesday afternoon along a two mile route. Surely Croke Park on a Saturday night would be far more of a health risk.

Yes croke park is a health risk. Not mutually exclusive

Professor Moriarty

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

However we just do not know yet.

Christ. Why do you think I used the words 'might' and 'indicate'?

CinemaGuy45

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Slovakia announces first case today and has now banned all flights from Italy starting Monday

Stupid people those Slovakias they have just lost all that Italian tourist money I bet they wished they had our wise leadership.:rolleyes:

BLIZZARD7

Strazdas wrote: »

I cannot understand the current obsession with the parade and having it cancelled. It's a two hour event on a Tuesday afternoon along a two mile route. Surely Croke Park on a Saturday night would be far more of a health risk.

All big gatherings are a risk, the parade especially so, not hard to understand.

https://daily.jstor.org/the-1918-parade-that-spread-death-in-philadelphia/

wakka12

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

South Korea's mortality rate is 0.6% versus the WHO average of 3.4%. This probably because of South Korea's policy of extensive testing. This indicates that the true mortality rate worldwide might be much closer to influenza mortality rates.

I would be astonished if it is anywhere as high as 3.4% but it will also be significantly more than 0.6% because of the lag time of patients in south korea dying and new cases deflating that death rate. In wuhan now you see the death rate increasing a lot lately as some patients who have been hospitalised for a long time now continue to die and number of new cases are decreasing

SafeSurfer

Strazdas wrote: »

I cannot understand the current obsession with the parade and having it cancelled. It's a two hour event on a Tuesday afternoon along a two mile route. Surely Croke Park on a Saturday night would be far more of a health risk.

On a Tuesday afternoon?

It’s a national holiday and the biggest annual mass gathering in the country.

It won’t be going ahead.

Brianmwalker

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

South Korea's mortality rate is 0.6% versus the WHO average of 3.4%. This probably because of South Korea's policy of extensive testing. This indicates that the true mortality rate worldwide might be much closer to influenza mortality rates.

Stats can be used any way you want.
Closed cases: 60k
Deaths in the closed cases: 3.4k
Puts mortality at 6%

Mic 1972

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

South Korea's mortality rate is 0.6% versus the WHO average of 3.4%. This probably because of South Korea's policy of extensive testing. This indicates that the true mortality rate worldwide might be much closer to influenza mortality rates.

The number of recovered people in S.Korea is also very low
Looking at specific country figures isn't very effective because the numbers are so low. Iran for example has much higher number for recovered people compared to S.Korea

mossie

Strazdas wrote: »

I cannot understand the current obsession with the parade and having it cancelled. It's a two hour event on a Tuesday afternoon along a two mile route. Surely Croke Park on a Saturday night would be far more of a health risk.

I can understand wanting it cancelled, I think it would make sense, but it's Paddys day and even if there's no parade people will still go to the pubs and a confined pub is surely an ideal place for infection?

CinemaGuy45

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Christ. Why do you think I used the words 'might' and 'indicate'?

I know you did I am just pointing it out for those that read it.

Akabusi

Am I alone in finding it very hard to remember to cough into your elbow. I've spent my lifetime of coughing into my hand. I see it now for why its wrong just hard to break that habit.

el Fenomeno

It's an event that attracts 100,000+ people from abroad, if you believe the marketing figures.

Now I'm sure not all 100,000 will cancel their flights and accommodation because the parade isn't going ahead, but if it reduces the number travelling by even 20% and removes an event with mass close-quartered gatherings from the calendar, do you not think that would be a good idea?

Professor Moriarty

wakka12 wrote: »

I would be astonished if it is anywhere as high as 3.4% but it will also be significantly more than 0.6% because of the lag time of patients in south korea and new cases deflating that death rate. In wuhan now you see the death rate increasing a lot lately as some patients who have been hospitalised for a long time now continue to die and number of new cases are decreasing

Yeah. It's that bite point between the true number of cases versus deaths. Hazarding a guess, probably about 1% when the dust settles.

Mic 1972

Brianmwalker wrote: »

Stats can be used any way you want.
Closed cases: 60k
Deaths in the closed cases: 3.4k
Puts mortality at 6%

Yep, correct
That's the right way to estimate the fatality rate, but the number is too scary to be used on official statements

joe_99

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

South Korea's mortality rate is 0.6% versus the WHO average of 3.4%. This probably because of South Korea's policy of extensive testing. This indicates that the true mortality rate worldwide might be much closer to influenza mortality rates.

Totally agree with this. S. Korea and the cruise liner are by far the best indicator's of the virus's potency.