Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Steven81

Graces7 wrote: »

There are many things that will need to be adapted; best to start planning soon?Rather than last minute panic that will affect exam performance

Problem is if people are too sick to sit the exams, am sure in certain courses if it spreads then a large amount of class might be unable to sit exams. College is not cheap and would place a huge financial burden if they had to repeat the year again.

caveat emptor

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Very surprised at them Tbh. Usually a good solid publication but this is OTT.

Really don't get this comment. Are you surprised at the fact that health officials have modelled this and they have to prepare for most likely scenario?

Or are you surprised that a newspaper would publish something which while shocking is clearly in the public interest.

No point being surprised.

DellyBelly

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Heard another rumer that dogs carry the virus, & pass it on to humans .....
No basis in science as far as I know.

Are you serious? Christ that's very worrying. I wasn't that concerned but if the above is case I'd be starting to get a wee bit anxious. My neighbours have loads of dogs

tbayers

Talisman wrote: »

With regards to Ireland, that is a big assumption, we don't get the warm temperatures until the summer months. 20-22C is considered hot and we are about 3-4 months away from reaching those temperatures. The south of Spain is a good indicator as to whether the temperture has an effect.

Alicante province was virus free up until last week (3 cases found on Thursday, 1 related to North Italy). The region has been enjoying temperatures in the 20-22C range already this month and it will get increasingly warmer from now on. If temperature is a decisive factor in preventing the spread of the virus, then the outbreak shouldn't explode there. If it spreads, I would expect fatalities on the scale of what we see in Italy because there are a large amount of retirees from Ireland and the UK living there, many with underlying health conditions.

Florida has loads of cases atm, so the temperature argument is mute. High 20's there recently.

SMC92Ian

the butcher wrote: »

Like that health official from clare? :rolleyes: We should not underestimate the stupidity and selfishness of people.

Or that person who had it and decided to go to a festival instead of quaratine.

Away With The Fairies

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Hysteria? Ironic that an anti vaxxer should mention that word in your post.:rolleyes:

I'm not anti vaxxer but it sounds like they are trying to come up with a cure/medicine/vaccine fast and you can't rush bringing out new medicines which can have bad side effects.

Away With The Fairies

Steven81 wrote: »

Problem is if people are too sick to sit the exams, am sure in certain courses if it spreads then a large amount of class might be unable to sit exams. College is not cheap and would place a huge financial burden if they had to repeat the year again.

Which could result in students that might have mild symptoms thinking they are fine and continue on to sit exams. It's a **** storm whatever way you look at it.

Bob24

fritzelly wrote: »

Diamond Princess
Grand Princess
And now Royal Princess

Wouldn't go on a cruise if you paid me right now

https://twitter.com/hashtag/royalprincess?src=hashtag_click

Indeed. I have done a few cruises and it is something I like, but it might be the worse setting for the virus to spread. Once one person on the ship has if it will spread like wildfire so do close proximity until you quarantine. Even at the end of the cruise it won’t leave the ship with passengers disembarking as thousands of crew are staying on board, so eventually it will become endemic on all cruise ships (if it isn’t already).

I think cruise companies might be in deep trouble and soon enough all cruises globally might have to be cancelled for a period of time.

Axfrderr

viewfromtheuk wrote: »

The chance of getting HIV is practically zero if you avoid intravenous drugs use and male to male anal sex.

WTF?? Are you posting from the 1980's
What's shocking is that nobody called this out and some people actually thanked the post.

hairyslug

There are a few good reports knocking around that not temperature but humidity could help as infected mucus will not linger in the air as long.

Azatadine

Why is Northern Italy so bad but not Southern Italy?

Bob24

viewfromtheuk wrote: »

Yes, Yes Yes!
The EU can print unlimited money to bail out banks, why not print money to save the lives of EU citizens?

Ah they will print money, this is what they do best and in any situation (their solution to climate change also is money printing).

But while it *might* help some businesses in the short term it won’t stop a virus and it will come back to bite us in the long term.

Tordelback

Axfrderr wrote: »

WTF?? Are you posting from the 1980's
What's shocking is that nobody called this out and some people actually thanked the post.

It's like something an Eastenders character would have said in the '80s - Dot or Lou Beale, probably. How do 35 years pass without reality sinking in.

drunkmonkey

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I'm not anti vaxxer but it sounds like they are trying to come up with a cure/medicine/vaccine fast and you can't rush bringing out new medicines which can have bad side effects.

They'll never come up with a cure there's no money in it, maintenance is where it's at with annual recurring revenues.

Graces7

Steven81 wrote: »

Problem is if people are too sick to sit the exams, am sure in certain courses if it spreads then a large amount of class might be unable to sit exams. College is not cheap and would place a huge financial burden if they had to repeat the year again.

From past experience I am sure that the authorities are well aware of this and will adapt and provide accordingly.

So many "ifs" in your post.

Bob24

Ardillaun wrote: »

Regarding COVID-19, Ireland is lucky to have the Brits next door. They seem to be doing a better job than anybody in Europe on getting ahead of this thing, testing more than 20,000 people already. We are WAY behind that in Canada and the US.

It will hurt some people to admit it, but yes it is undeniable Britain has been tackling this significantly better than most of the rest of Europe. They are still not at Singapore level though.

2xj3hplqgsbkym

Graces7 wrote: »

The rural aspect will protect many. Looking at West mayo where we are spread out. If we capitalise on this. eg shop for older folk. Far easier to do this in a rural setting than in a town centre.

I was wondering about this. I live in Dublin city and am concerned for my eldest child who has a lung/ & liver condition and unable to fight respiratory infections. Was wondering if he would be better off going to stay with family in a rural area. What do you think?

Tordelback

Graces7 wrote: »

There are many things that will need to be adapted; best to start planning soon?Rather than last minute panic that will affect exam performance

The exam system exists to serve us, we created it - it's not a property of reality we have to contend with. If it comes to it, we'll adapt and/or reschedule, same with all these other society-based obstacles.

You're absolutely right, we just need to calmly plan these things.

caveat emptor

Graces7 wrote: »

The rural aspect will protect many. Looking at West mayo where we are spread out. If we capitalise on this. eg shop for older folk. Far easier to do this in a rural setting than in a town centre.

Just read a good BBC article about what we can learn from Spanish flu.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200302-coronavirus-what-can-we-learn-from-the-spanish-flu

"But some places did manage to keep the flu at bay, often by using basic techniques that are still being used 100 years later. In Alaska, one community on Bristol Bay escaped the flu almost unscathed. They closed schools, banned public gatherings, and shut off access to the village from the main road. It was a low-tech version of the travel restrictions that have been used in some areas today, such as China’s Hubei province and northern Italy, in an effort to stop the coronavirus spreading."

pc7

Azatadine wrote: »

Why is Northern Italy so bad but not Southern Italy?

I think because it was circulating there so long before detection. People being treated in hospital for pneumonia that was corona and spread from there.

The scenes on the news of people rushing to get trains out of red zone in Italy last night are a joke. Packed trains likely spreading it now to the rest of Italy and elsewhere.

1882

Bob24 wrote: »

I think cruise companies might be in deep trouble and soon enough all cruises globally might have to be cancelled for a period of time.

That would be a real benefit to our earth. Huge polluters.

caveat emptor

hairyslug wrote: »

There are a few good reports knocking around that not temperature but humidity could help as mucus will not longer in the air as long.

I've read this too. Experts still don't know /agree why Flu recedes in summer.
That would mean it is borne of the air in some instances though. I'm careful to follow the thread rule me.

6. Terms such as "sinus", "airborne", "aerosol" have little relevance at this time in this jurisdiction. Ultimately though if cases are discovered in Ireland please pay attention to the relevant authorities and what they advise/recommend, and not some randomer(s) on the internet

Bob24

pc7 wrote: »

The scenes on the news of people rushing to get trains out of red zone in Italy last night are a joke. Packed trains likely spreading it now to the rest of Italy and elsewhere.

Shows the government hasn’t yet grasped what it is dealing with. If they don’t restrict cars, buses, trains, and planes going out of the “locked down” area from today on their so-called lockdown will have little effect.

And as you said it might even have the opposite effect of the one intended if people panic leave the area en masse and spread out in the rest of the country.

pc7

We just have to hope the Italian decision wakes other countries like ours up and now. Act now. Slow this bloody thing down before it gets to a stage where our health services are overwhelmed. Also that people start being more aware of their hygiene.

sjb25

Ok I’m done with the world this has to be a joke

https://twitter.com/Frolencewalters/status/1236111703227502597?s=20

Tordelback

Reati wrote: »

. Circa 104,000 cases worldwide is about 0.00139% of the global population. You wouldn't put money on against odds like those.

How many cases d'you reckon we'd be at now if China hadn't gone Full Totalitarian almost instantly?

You talk as if these small numbers are simply additive, when in fact without serious intervention they are the seeds of exponential growth, like the first few grains of rice on that chessboard.

Bob24

1882 wrote: »

That would be a real benefit to our earth. Huge polluters.

Cruise ships pollute a lot, but the same can be said about many things so targeting them in isolation isn’t really fair. For exemple if someone who is regularly buying fruits and veggies which came here on container ships probably pollutes much more doing this than someone going on a cruise once a year but buying local fruits and vegetables (especially of the goods come from as far as South America or Africa).

drunkmonkey

pc7 wrote: »

We just have to hope the Italian decision wakes other countries like ours up and now. Act now. Slow this bloody thing down before it gets to a stage where our health services are overwhelmed.

I thought there already overwhelmed before this even started.

Away With The Fairies

sjb25 wrote: »

Ok I’m done with the world this has to be a joke

https://twitter.com/Frolencewalters/status/1236111703227502597?s=20

Clearly not afraid of catching the virus by fighting and touching.

whiskeyman

Cheltenham and St Patrick's Day going ahead seem even more absurd now after Italian quarantine decision.

drunkmonkey

75% of Italian deaths are under 62
https://twitter.com/Dr_FarrisD/status/1236057723621568512?s=20

caveat emptor

I think we have a huge challenge and the whole of society needs to act.

Every country that has had an outbreak has been completely hamstrung economically / financially etc.

I sympathise with everyone on here but I'm not naive. Approaching it as if it doesn't exist or saying it won't be that bad here will only get you so far.

Keeping a positive mindset is super important. If you feel that ST Patricks day , parades , events , gatherings are irresponsible at this stage then there is an onus on all of us to make that be know to the relevant authorities. Unfortunately our politicians are reactive and not proactive on this issue it seems.

I'd also say we should bear in mind business owners who potentially face devastating consequences if shut downs occur which they likely will. We should push for tax payments to be suspended, mortgage freezes and any other mitigation we can think of. (these are some which have been done in Italy so far.)

We need to put on the green jersey now rather than later. When it gets bad there'll be plenty of people telling you to take one for the team. I'd rather take it now and be real about it.

Away With The Fairies

What is exponential growth?

DOCARCH

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

What is exponential growth?

E.g. 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128....etc., etc.

As opposed to 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6....etc., etc. (which would be linear growth).

ChikiChiki

whiskeyman wrote: »

Cheltenham and St Patrick's Day going ahead seem even more absurd now after Italian quarantine decision.

Have a feeling our crowd are looking at the fact Cheltenham is going ahead and will justify their decision with that. Unfortunately will be two weeks before the fallout of that decision becomes apparent.

Drumpot

pc7 wrote: »

We just have to hope the Italian decision wakes other countries like ours up and now. Act now. Slow this bloody thing down before it gets to a stage where our health services are overwhelmed. Also that people start being more aware of their hygiene.

I fear it won’t..

Who (months ago). Countries need to prepare themselves and their people
Countries: There is none here, very low probability, nothing to see

Who as it continues to spread: Countries need to be proactive and take measures before it arrives
Countries: Ah we do take this serious but money and economy

People in countries: There are no people infected
WHO: You Need to have vast testing like South Korea to get a real idea of how fast it’s spreading
People In country regardless of testing amount: But there’s none here!

People in countries: There is only one person infected
WHO: But this grows exponentially
People in countries: There is only one death in the country
WHO: But this most likely means the virus has been spreading for weeks

People in countries: This is really inconvenient and annoying (still in denial)
Official figures jump one or two days after proper widespread testing starts - people panic because they were under the impression everything is under control

1882

Bob24 wrote: »

Cruise ships pollute a lot, but the same can be said about many things. For exemple of someone is regularly buying fruits and veggies which came her on container ships they probably pollute more doing this than someone going on a cruise once a year but buying local fruits and vegetables.

I was commenting on your post about cruise ships, not a persons carbon footprint, and container shipping like many things, is a totally different topic.

McGiver

All,

Can you please write to your councillors and TDs and complain that the attitude of HSE and media is simply unacceptable?

The intentional obscurity in reporting where new cases are located and total lack of transparency from the government and the HSE is disgraceful, it simply cannot happen in developed western European country. Most other European countries do not behave this way and report cases in detail.

We need to bombard them with emails and demand transparency.

Lack of transparency is one of the root causes of corruption and poor governance in this country. The more transparency there is the more inconvenient and difficult is to do corruption and the more easier is to hold the government accountable as well. Transparency is essential in properly functioning democratic governance to enable good outcomes.

Thank you all.

Drumpot

drunkmonkey wrote: »

75% of Italian deaths are under 62
https://twitter.com/Dr_FarrisD/status/1236057723621568512?s=20

Yeh but that’s not coming here cause somebody doesn’t think it.

Roll on EPL weekend , Cheltenham and Patrick’s day but remember to keep your 2 meter distance at these events.

whiskeyman

drunkmonkey wrote: »

75% of Italian deaths are under 62
https://twitter.com/Dr_FarrisD/status/1236057723621568512?s=20

That's a frightening stat, but doesn't mention if they had underlying health condition?

Volthar

whiskeyman wrote: »

Cheltenham and St Patrick's Day going ahead seem even more absurd now after Italian quarantine decision.

I think one of the reasons Wuhan was affected so bad was that they allowed their massive festival to go ahead despite the infection. Wife and I are working from home and I am going to keep my kids at home for at least 2 weeks after the parade.

Darc19

I don't understand the scaremongering about the parades.

It's not as if 200,000 people are all in a single stadium. (I never believe the exaggerated 500,000+ figures)

They are spread over a very large area.

Why not close grafton street.


Now local parade organizers are being pressured by the know alls to cancel.

These have small gatherings no more than 2 or 3 deep.

Utterly overhyped with little rational thinking going on.

US2

China must be delighted this disease put an end to all the riots and protests in Hong Kong..

pc7

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

What is exponential growth?

Someone I can’t remember who posted this previously and it’s a great example https://medium.com/@purposefocuscommitment/the-rice-and-the-chess-board-story-the-power-of-exponential-growth-b1f7bd70aaca

US2

US2 wrote: »

China must be delighted this disease put an end to all the riots and protests in Hong Kong..

:rolleyes:

Volthar

Tordelback wrote: »

How many cases d'you reckon we'd be at now if China hadn't gone Full Totalitarian almost instantly?

You talk as if these small numbers are simply additive, when in fact without serious intervention they are the seeds of exponential growth, like the first few grains of rice on that chessboard.

I agree. I would like to add that if it was them or their family members that suffer, they would not think of it as just a small and insignificant number.

Bob24

Drumpot wrote: »

Yeh but that’s not coming here cause somebody doesn’t think it.

Roll on EPL weekend , Cheltenham and Patrick’s day but remember to keep your 2 meter distance at these events.

I think this thread shows that slowly more people are understanding that it is not a minor issue though.

There are still a few but you don’t see as many “the common flue kills many more people than Covid 19 each year” type of comments anymore.

antodeco

Darc19 wrote: »

I don't understand the scaremongering about the parades.

It's not as if 200,000 people are all in a single stadium. (I never believe the exaggerated 500,000+ figures)

They are spread over a very large area.

Why not close grafton street.


Now local parade organizers are being pressured by the know alls to cancel.

These have small gatherings no more than 2 or 3 deep.

Utterly overhyped with little rational thinking going on.

Have you ever been in the city centre on St Patrick's Day?

To cross Grafton Street (I don't mean walk down it I mean literally cross it) on a normal day would take about 15 seconds. On At Patrick's Day this can take about 2 minutes. Why? Because it is rammed solid with people. Unfortunately it's a large volume of people spread out over a large everywhere. There are people covering every foot of ground in the city. If someone has Covid19, thousands could end up with it very easily

circadian

McGiver wrote: »

All,

Can you please write to your councillors and TDs and complain that the attitude of HSE and media is simply unacceptable?

The intentional obscurity in reporting where new cases are located and total lack of transparency from the government and the HSE is disgraceful, it simply cannot happen in developed western European country. Most other European countries do not behave this way and report cases in detail.

We need to bombard them with emails and demand transparency.

Lack of transparency is one of the root causes of corruption and poor governance in this country. The more transparency there is the more inconvenient and difficult is to do corruption and the more easier is to hold the government accountable as well. Transparency is essential in properly functioning democratic governance to enable good outcomes.

Thank you all.

Phone them. Constantly, call their offices. Emails will simply be ignored and given what we're dealing with protests seem to be very counter productive so the government has that to hide behind. Literally anything else and people mobilising on the streets would put pressure on them but clearly not a good idea in this case.

If you're worries about the direction we're heading call your TDs, all of them, regardless of vote and do it regularly.

ChikiChiki

Darc19 wrote: »

I don't understand the scaremongering about the parades.

It's not as if 200,000 people are all in a single stadium. (I never believe the exaggerated 500,000+ figures)

They are spread over a very large area.

Why not close grafton street.


Now local parade organizers are being pressured by the know alls to cancel.

These have small gatherings no more than 2 or 3 deep.

Utterly overhyped with little rational thinking going on.

There is little rational thinking going on in the mind of anyone who thinks we should hold the parades and festivities in Dublin.

If it's for solely financial reasons i.e tourism cash cow then that is a very short term outlook.