Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Cilldara_2000

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

re: Italy. You have to bear in mind the population it got into. It managed to get into hospitals and nursing homes before they realised they had it. Just by age alone and illness alone you could expect those places to have very high mortality.

The Washington State mortality rate is also skewed by nursing home involvement.

Sometimes detailed statistics distract from the big picture. The 4.whatever percent figure from Italy is misleading, the focus on daily rates of increase in Ireland are not as important as people here seem to think.

The key points are the big figures. WHO estimate of 40 to 70% of the worlds population infected over the next year and roughly 2% mortality. Some countries will have a higher death rate if they have more elderly people and poorer general public health.

The daily stats aren’t what we should focus on. We should focus on the big figures over the next year and hand washing and social distancing. The better we are at those the more likely we will reduce the numbers infected below 40 to 70% which will aid us all in general and specifically.

Have you a link to that? As far as I can see this was a claim from one expert: "Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch" and a search of the WHO website hasn't enlightened me.

El Weirdo

namloc1980 wrote: »

Jesus Christ, Tubridy is doing hand washing etiquette on the Late Late. We're truly fcuked.

You just have to look at the post directly above yours to understand why this might be a good idea.

Rob A. Bank

‘This is the most frightening disease I’ve ever encountered’

Virus expert Dr Richard Hatchett.

Dr. Richard Hatchett advised the Bush and Obama White Houses and worked for the agency that protects Americans against pandemics and bioweapons. Designed and led medical countermeasure development programs at BARDA and NIH, including planning for and responding to H5N1 avian influenza ("bird flu"), the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and the Ebola, MERS, and Zika epidemics.


.................................

ricero

Paddys day going ahead is farcical. Greed will destroy this country.

ChurchtownMan

The vaste majority of both the misinformed, and brainless outrage in this thread is a complete and utter disgrace. Moaning about lack of location information, case numbers updates over the weekend, not stopping flights from Italy etc, really is a trail of ignorance. The blind leading the blind. The frustration seems motivated by a lack of details to feed this neverending thread of nonsense. As if releasing case data over the weekend will make any difference to the spread of the virus. A reminder that no one has died of speculation, or bulletin board posting frustration.

To set at least some of the record straight, I am free, and willing, to share the following at least with those capable of some rational thought :

The virus will spread throughout the community. The battle to prevent that has been now lost in all European countries. Its propagation will make the concern about 3 or 5 infections appear as nothing. The consequences are according to rates generally widely cited here. Several million will likely be infected in Ireland. Tens of thousands will likely die in Ireland.

The variable at play now is how long the process can be delayed to increase the number of survivors. The HSE, in this event at least, is no better nor worse than the health services of other European countries. Effectively non can handle what is coming to us. No service has a built in capability to handle a ramp up in demand for it services, in a period of a few months, by a factory of 300-400. None. Criticism of the HSE is entirely unjustified, and just knee jerk bitching.

Services simply will not cope. And people will die as a result. But there is simply no solution to this. The impact can only be reduced over the coming 12-18 months, by 1) reducing the number of HSE workers absent from duty at any one time due to being infected, and 2) reducing the number of the population needed hospitalisation at any one time. (as an aside, those who are diagnosed now or in the next 3-6 weeks are likely the luckiest - services may still be able to help them while numbers are only in the thousands. Those infected when the numbers reach the hundreds of thousands at the same time, will find they effectively have no health service available to them). We are likely powerless to influence either to a great degree - but it is the best course of action to attempt. At best, it will reduce cases and fatalities by a single digit percentage overall.

In the end, many will get over the illness with little or minor difficulty, and most of the fatalaties are sure to be the elderly. But there will be tragedies, and the world will be scarred in a way that it has not known since the second world war. Services and political leadership is baulking being so explicit with the truth. But even that matters little - what is going to happen now is unavoidable. The economic impact will be equally drastic and disruptive to life as people have known it for 75 years.

all about the mane

Miike wrote: »

You're aware that all clinical staff in this country re-certify every 12 months in hand hygiene right? It's very easy to forget the importance of following a technique. The general public will never have had exposure to the correct hand hygiene technique which is by far the most important factor in the prevention of nearly ALL nosocomial infections which could easily translate into prevention of community acquired infections given the lack of clinical knowledge in that population.

My job involves knowing these techniques. I know its anecdotal but from what I have seen, the vast majority of people do not wash their hands properly.

tuxy

all about the mane wrote: »

Of known cases. Numbers are probably way off those

Exactly there will be a large number of asymptomatic and mild undetected cases that will bring the death rate down. Of course that is no consolation to someone who has lost someone they cared about.

Strazdas

123654789 wrote: »

Of all the ****e decisions by the Govt /HSE tonight's news has me seriously enraged :mad::mad::mad:


It's bad enough that they're not banning parades and mass gatherings, but they're actually getting snotty about "unilateral decisions" where parades ARE being cancelled and nursing homes going on lock down? To PROTECT people?? Which is more than the government is doing!

How dare they!! Orders and decisions to close those events should have been mandatory and at national level.

Jesus wept

These are very unhelpful. Bodies and organisations completely ignoring government and medical advice and cancelling events doesn't contribute much.

Youghal cancelled their parade ten days out and without even waiting for event guidelines from the Govt (which are on the way soon).

leavingirl

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

‘This is the most frightening disease I’ve ever encountered’

Virus expert Dr Richard Hatchett.

Dr. Richard Hatchett advised the Bush and Obama White Houses and worked for the agency that protects Americans against pandemics and bioweapons. Designed and led medical countermeasure development programs at BARDA and NIH, including planning for and responding to H5N1 avian influenza ("bird flu"), the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and the Ebola, MERS, and Zika epidemics.


.................................

All fake 'epidemics'.
He got very rich from them, though.

RoryMac

Glad the HSE CEO is here to tell us what an excellent job he is doing, it seems the HSE know exactly how this is going to play out but just can't tell us plebs cause we wouldn't understand

Tomato1

Miike wrote: »

You're aware that all clinical staff in this country re-certify every 12 months in hand hygiene right? It's very easy to forget the importance of following a technique. The general public will never have had exposure to the correct hand hygiene technique which is by far the most important factor in the prevention of nearly ALL nosocomial infections which could easily translate into prevention of community acquired infections given the lack of clinical knowledge in that population.

Ambulance staff are told to do watch a moodle video and then answer a quick questionnaire. They make you wash your hands in the college too but it's all one massive piss take and all the staff complain about it and cry like children when they have to do it.



I'd say 8 out of 10 NAS staff have no idea how to properly wash their hands. Many staff also cannot be arsed washing the stretcher or equipment in ambulances.

Also, NAS do not supply us with alcohol gel or hand washing supplies.
The crews who care (few) end up robbing bottles of spirigel from the wall in ED.

There was a study in the US in recent years saying that ambulances are the biggest spreader of infection (MRSA, CDIFF, VRE, CPE) etc.

Cilldara_2000

ricero wrote: »

Paddys day going ahead is farcical. Greed will destroy this country.

It's really not greed. It's about trying to keep struggling hospitality sector businesses afloat and their staff in jobs. It's a delicate balancing act although I expect that the parade will be cancelled eventually. Probably at some point closer so that the people from abroad will come anyway and spend their money but won't be congregating in high risk large groups.

spurious

If the parade is cancelled, will tourists not just jam the pubs?
Is that not slightly counter-productive?

Nodster

ricero wrote: »

Paddys day going ahead is farcical. Greed will destroy this country.

Have you not heard the ongoing mantra "This country is open for business"?

Tootsie_1

800,000 an ICU bed ? According to Paul Reid 20 Million gets you 25 ICU Beds ..... ?

Mental Mickey

Where can one get anti-bacterial handwash??

ArchXStanton

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

‘This is the most frightening disease I’ve ever encountered’

Virus expert Dr Richard Hatchett.

Dr. Richard Hatchett advised the Bush and Obama White Houses and worked for the agency that protects Americans against pandemics and bioweapons. Designed and led medical countermeasure development programs at BARDA and NIH, including planning for and responding to H5N1 avian influenza ("bird flu"), the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and the Ebola, MERS, and Zika epidemics.


.................................

1:21 on about how Singapore are handling it relatively well by "engaging the public" something the HSE are making a balls of

all about the mane

tuxy wrote: »

Exactly there will be a large number of asymptomatic and mild undetected cases that will bring the death rate down. Of course that is no consolation to someone who has lost someone they cared about.

Absolutely. but the mortality rate is almost certainly a fraction of the numbers being bandied around here. As you say, we still need to be sensitive not so lucky.

saabsaab

caveat emptor wrote: »

From what I've heard in north. Not hardest hit but confimed cases in town, region.



WFH where possible.
Zero public gatherings. i.e cafe , discoteca,

Those who need to be in a place of work taking what would be considered here extreme precaution.
There was food shortages when people panicked. Seems to be ok now.
No soap, hand sanitizer, masks etc.


Mentality simliar to here. But most won't venture near a bar.

What bar? or a bar of what?

Funsterdelux

ChurchtownMan wrote: »

The vaste majority of this post has been deleted.....................orld will be scarred in a way that it has not known since the second world war. Services and political leadership is baulking being so explicit with the truth. But even that matters little - what is going to happen now is unavoidable. The economic impact will be equally drastic and disruptive to life as people have known it for 75 years.

Welcome to boards!

Professor Moriarty

ChurchtownMan wrote: »

The vaste majority of both the misinformed, and brainless outrage in this thread is a complete and utter disgrace. Moaning about lack of location information, case numbers updates over the weekend, not stopping flights from Italy etc, really is a trail of ignorance. The blind leading the blind. The frustration seems motivated by a lack of details to feed this neverending thread of nonsense. As if releasing case data over the weekend will make any difference to the spread of the virus. A reminder that no one has died of speculation, or bulletin board posting frustration.

To set at least some of the record straight, I am free, and willing, to share the following at least with those capable of some rational thought :

The virus will spread throughout the community. The battle to prevent that has been now lost in all European countries. Its propagation will make the concern about 3 or 5 infections appear as nothing. The consequences are according to rates generally widely cited here. Several million will likely be infected in Ireland. Tens of thousands will likely die in Ireland.

The variable at play now is how long the process can be delayed to increase the number of survivors. The HSE, in this event at least, is no better nor worse than the health services of other European countries. Effectively non can handle what is coming to us. No service has a built in capability to handle a ramp up in demand for it services, in a period of a few months, by a factory of 300-400. None. Criticism of the HSE is entirely unjustified, and just knee jerk bitching.

Services simply will not cope. And people will die as a result. But there is simply no solution to this. The impact can only be reduced over the coming 12-18 months, by 1) reducing the number of HSE workers absent from duty at any one time due to being infected, and 2) reducing the number of the population needed hospitalisation at any one time. (as an aside, those who are diagnosed now or in the next 3-6 weeks are likely the luckiest - services may still be able to help them while numbers are only in the thousands. Those infected when the numbers reach the hundreds of thousands at the same time, will find they effectively have no health service available to them). We are likely powerless to influence either to a great degree - but it is the best course of action to attempt. At best, it will reduce cases and fatalities by a single digit percentage overall.

In the end, many will get over the illness with little or minor difficulty, and most of the fatalaties are sure to be the elderly. But there will be tragedies, and the world will be scarred in a way that it has not known since the second world war. Services and political leadership is baulking being so explicit with the truth. But even that matters little - what is going to happen now is unavoidable. The economic impact will be equally drastic and disruptive to life as people have known it for 75 years.

Numbers of cases and deaths are falling in China. Why would we be exponentially worse than China?

Clarence Boddiker

ChurchtownMan wrote: »

The vaste majority of both the misinformed, and brainless outrage in this thread is a complete and utter disgrace. Moaning about lack of location information, case numbers updates over the weekend, not stopping flights from Italy etc, really is a trail of ignorance. The blind leading the blind. The frustration seems motivated by a lack of details to feed this neverending thread of nonsense. As if releasing case data over the weekend will make any difference to the spread of the virus. A reminder that no one has died of speculation, or bulletin board posting frustration.

To set at least some of the record straight, I am free, and willing, to share the following at least with those capable of some rational thought :

The virus will spread throughout the community. The battle to prevent that has been now lost in all European countries. Its propagation will make the concern about 3 or 5 infections appear as nothing. The consequences are according to rates generally widely cited here. Several million will likely be infected in Ireland. Tens of thousands will likely die in Ireland.

The variable at play now is how long the process can be delayed to increase the number of survivors. The HSE, in this event at least, is no better nor worse than the health services of other European countries. Effectively non can handle what is coming to us. No service has a built in capability to handle a ramp up in demand for it services, in a period of a few months, by a factory of 300-400. None. Criticism of the HSE is entirely unjustified, and just knee jerk bitching.

Services simply will not cope. And people will die as a result. But there is simply no solution to this. The impact can only be reduced over the coming 12-18 months, by 1) reducing the number of HSE workers absent from duty at any one time due to being infected, and 2) reducing the number of the population needed hospitalisation at any one time. (as an aside, those who are diagnosed now or in the next 3-6 weeks are likely the luckiest - services may still be able to help them while numbers are only in the thousands. Those infected when the numbers reach the hundreds of thousands at the same time, will find they effectively have no health service available to them). We are likely powerless to influence either to a great degree - but it is the best course of action to attempt. At best, it will reduce cases and fatalities by a single digit percentage overall.

In the end, many will get over the illness with little or minor difficulty, and most of the fatalaties are sure to be the elderly. But there will be tragedies, and the world will be scarred in a way that it has not known since the second world war. Services and political leadership is baulking being so explicit with the truth. But even that matters little - what is going to happen now is unavoidable. The economic impact will be equally drastic and disruptive to life as people have known it for 75 years.

If the economic impact is going to be drastic as you have said then they should have stopped flights from affected areas from the beginning. The reason they keep the flights going is to protect the economy, well if the economy is going down anyway then many people will die for nothing.

Westernyelp

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Eh if the next person also sneezes into their elbow they will likely pick up the virus from the previous person.

eh, the virus enters the body through the mucus membranes, eyes, mouth, nose. you must have weird elbows.

all about the mane

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Where can one get anti-bacterial handwash??

amazon. seriously, you are on the internet as you post...

Tootsie_1

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Where can one get anti-bacterial handwash??

Tesco had loads of dettol hand wash

jackboy

Guy on late late just said that it is a version of the flu virus.

ldy4mxonucwsq6

123654789 wrote: »

Of all the ****e decisions by the Govt /HSE tonight's news has me seriously enraged :mad::mad::mad:


It's bad enough that they're not banning parades and mass gatherings, but they're actually getting snotty about "unilateral decisions" where parades ARE being cancelled and nursing homes going on lock down? To PROTECT people?? Which is more than the government is doing!

How dare they!! Orders and decisions to close those events should have been mandatory and at national level.

Jesus wept

In this case everyone needs to take responsibility for themselves, if we can trust that there is going to be a serious effort from the government to contain it.

The problem is there are many who won't bother or see the danger or wont want to make the sacrifice (like those who more recently travelled to Northern Italy and brought the virus back).

I've cancelled my holiday and won't be attending any large events or parades regardless of whether they take place. All we can do is minimise the risk to ourselves now, that's our own individual responsibility.

Government have made it quite clear that they will not disrupt travel or economy to make a decent effort to contain this.

Gooey Looey

ChurchtownMan wrote: »

The vaste majority of both the misinformed, and brainless outrage in this thread is a complete and utter disgrace. Moaning about lack of location information, case numbers updates over the weekend, not stopping flights from Italy etc, really is a trail of ignorance. The blind leading the blind. The frustration seems motivated by a lack of details to feed this neverending thread of nonsense. As if releasing case data over the weekend will make any difference to the spread of the virus. A reminder that no one has died of speculation, or bulletin board posting frustration.

To set at least some of the record straight, I am free, and willing, to share the following at least with those capable of some rational thought :

The virus will spread throughout the community. The battle to prevent that has been now lost in all European countries. Its propagation will make the concern about 3 or 5 infections appear as nothing. The consequences are according to rates generally widely cited here. Several million will likely be infected in Ireland. Tens of thousands will likely die in Ireland.

The variable at play now is how long the process can be delayed to increase the number of survivors. The HSE, in this event at least, is no better nor worse than the health services of other European countries. Effectively non can handle what is coming to us. No service has a built in capability to handle a ramp up in demand for it services, in a period of a few months, by a factory of 300-400. None. Criticism of the HSE is entirely unjustified, and just knee jerk bitching.

Services simply will not cope. And people will die as a result. But there is simply no solution to this. The impact can only be reduced over the coming 12-18 months, by 1) reducing the number of HSE workers absent from duty at any one time due to being infected, and 2) reducing the number of the population needed hospitalisation at any one time. (as an aside, those who are diagnosed now or in the next 3-6 weeks are likely the luckiest - services may still be able to help them while numbers are only in the thousands. Those infected when the numbers reach the hundreds of thousands at the same time, will find they effectively have no health service available to them). We are likely powerless to influence either to a great degree - but it is the best course of action to attempt. At best, it will reduce cases and fatalities by a single digit percentage overall.

In the end, many will get over the illness with little or minor difficulty, and most of the fatalaties are sure to be the elderly. But there will be tragedies, and the world will be scarred in a way that it has not known since the second world war. Services and political leadership is baulking being so explicit with the truth. But even that matters little - what is going to happen now is unavoidable. The economic impact will be equally drastic and disruptive to life as people have known it for 75 years.

So we've done nothing and we're all out of ideas

all about the mane

ArchXStanton wrote: »

1:21 on about how Singapore are handling it relatively well by "engaging the public" something the HSE are making a balls of

They are engaging. In fact, people are on here complaining about them engaging. People are never happy

Funsterdelux

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Where can one get anti-bacterial handwash??

What about anti viral handwash