Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Mic 1972

gabeeg wrote: »

182 new cases in Germany?

lets stop all flights from Germany too!

BloodBath

Snow Garden wrote: »

I believe you.

Haven't noticed any difference in mine. I'm sure sales of some items are higher than usual but very few stockpiling.

Think people from this thread see an empty shelf and assume it's because of this. Confirmation bias all over the place.

tillyfilly

There should be heat seeking devices all over Dublin airport, then we might be able to control this outbreak here instead of washing our hands of it

otnomart

Today in the New England Journal of Medicine
Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany
"A 33-year-old otherwise healthy German businessman (Patient 1) became ill with a sore throat, chills, and myalgias on January 24, 2020. The following day, a fever of 39.1°C (102.4°F) developed, along with a productive cough. By the evening of the next day, he started feeling better and went back to work on January 27.
Before the onset of symptoms, he had attended meetings with a Chinese business partner at his company near Munich on January 20 and 21. The business partner, a Shanghai resident, had visited Germany between January 19 and 22. During her stay, she had been well with no signs or symptoms of infection but had become ill on her flight back to China, where she tested positive for 2019-nCoV on January 26"

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?fbclid=IwAR1jpHVcw4pBlmcr0JIubridJjIwlSVyV7G3DSQ9iFaMtd-mnX3d9F_WRzM

How did this first case in Bavaria spread to the rest of Europe ?
An hypothesis could be:
-Bavaria
-Spain
-13 February: first death in Valencia (only announced this week)
-19 February: Valencia fans travelled to Bergamo for match with Atalanta
-Italy

But that still does not explain the first victim in France - who had no links with neither China nor Italy.

BloodBath

tillyfilly wrote: »

There should be heat seeking devices all over Dublin airport, then we might be able to control this outbreak here instead of washing our hands of it

Heat seeking missiles. That will take care of it.

Maddox Jealous Yard

Maddox Jealous Yard wrote: »

At this point that is not recommended because people are not in the clear once they have had it like with other viruses. At this point, evidence suggests that Covid-19 aggressively attaches itself to endocrine receptors and can remain in the system dormant, reinfect you and transmit to other people. The respiratory system likely will sustain damage and it will be more difficult to recover after a second or third battle with the virus.

I don't believe you. Why would the coronavirus be lying dormant in the Pancreas where the endocrine receptors are? I've seen no evidence of case studies of reinfection.
And obviously, source?

SusanC10

Neighbour works in nearest large Tesco.

They are now short on pasta, tins of chopped tomatoes, flour, yeast and obviously then the cleaning products, liquid soaps and hand gels

laurah591

otnomart wrote: »

Today in the New England Journal of Medicine
Transmission of 2019-nCoV Infection from an Asymptomatic Contact in Germany
"A 33-year-old otherwise healthy German businessman (Patient 1) became ill with a sore throat, chills, and myalgias on January 24, 2020. The following day, a fever of 39.1°C (102.4°F) developed, along with a productive cough. By the evening of the next day, he started feeling better and went back to work on January 27.
Before the onset of symptoms, he had attended meetings with a Chinese business partner at his company near Munich on January 20 and 21. The business partner, a Shanghai resident, had visited Germany between January 19 and 22. During her stay, she had been well with no signs or symptoms of infection but had become ill on her flight back to China, where she tested positive for 2019-nCoV on January 26"

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?fbclid=IwAR1jpHVcw4pBlmcr0JIubridJjIwlSVyV7G3DSQ9iFaMtd-mnX3d9F_WRzM

How did this first case in Bavaria spread to the rest of Europe ?
An hypothesis could be:
-Bavaria
-Spain
-13 February: first death in Valencia (only announced this week)
-19 February: Valencia fans travelled to Bergamo for match with Atalanta
-Italy

But that still does not explain the first victim in France - who had no links with neither China nor Italy.

Wasn't the first death in France an 80 year old Chinese tourist (May have that wrong)?

gabeeg

Cw85 wrote: »

The Flu virus is an unpredictable virus.

If you are healthy you will usually recover in 7 days. But Flu can be severe and can cause serious illness and death.

Complications of flu include bronchitis, pneumonia, ear infections and rarely acute encephalopathy (swelling of the brain).

Serious complications of flu are more likely if you have a chronic medical condition or if you are aged 65 years or older. Pregnant women are also at increased risk of flu complications.

In Ireland, between 200 and 500 people, mainly older people, die from flu each winter.

Every year, around the world, flu causes between 3 and 5 million cases of severe disease and up to 646, 000 deaths.

Not my numbers fella, straight from the HSE website

I'm struggling to find stats on yearly deaths, but I don't think we've seen 200 never mind 500 yearly deaths from flu in decades.

Here's an article from mid february 2019 which quotes the HSE as saying we'd had 34 deaths so far that year
https://www.thejournal.ie/flu-deaths-4494541-Feb2019/

And there's loads and loads of articles just like that

Kilboor

SusanC10 wrote: »

Neighbour works in nearest large Tesco.

They are now short on pasta, tins of chopped tomatoes, flour, yeast and obviously then the cleaning products, liquid soaps and hand gels

Irish people aren't greedy or selfish at all

deathbomber

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't believe you. Why would the coronavirus be lying dormant in the Pancreas where the endocrine receptors are? I've seen no evidence of case studies of reinfection.
And obviously, source?

the supposed reinfection cases of which i have heard of 2 possible cases but medics are unsure if the 2 people had actually fully recovered in the first place. Further analysis of the virus suggest people who were infected, will not bee reinfected (antibodies now present in their body system etc)

JDD

So I'm working from home today. Apparently someone in my very large organisation (2000+ staff) is being tested for C-19, so bosses have left it up to us whether we want to work from home for the day or not. I decided to, not because I thought there'd be a risk of infection if I went in today, just because it suits me from a childcare point of view.

I expect the test will come back negative. Either way I'd say we'll all be back in tomorrow. If the test is positive they'll probably give those people who work on the same floor as the infected person the option to work from home for the next week or so.

I'm just about to head up to Dunnes now. I'll check the shelves for any panic buying signs. Might buy a couple of tins of kidney beans and a pack of toilet rolls. Just for the zeitgeist of it all.

otnomart

laurah591 wrote: »

Wasn't the first death in France an 80 year old Chinese tourist (May have that wrong)?

You are absolutely right !
I should have written in my post: first French victim

-first victim in France was indeed a Chinese national
-first French victim was the person diagnosed on 25 February after 6 days in Creil Hospital
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/a-creil-l-inquietude-des-soignants-du-francais-victime-du-coronavirus-1864805.html

Daz_

SusanC10 wrote: »

Neighbour works in nearest large Tesco.

They are now short on pasta, tins of chopped tomatoes, flour, yeast and obviously then the cleaning products, liquid soaps and hand gels

Seems like you can’t say stuff like this or it’s just “confirmation bias” or some other fancy terminology ...

Whestsidestory

Pasta from Italy and Rice from China ��

Cw85

gabeeg wrote: »

I'm struggling to find stats on yearly deaths, but I don't think we've seen 200 never mind 500 yearly deaths from flu in decades.

Here's an article from mid february 2019 which quotes the HSE as saying we'd had 34 deaths so far that year
https://www.thejournal.ie/flu-deaths-4494541-Feb2019/

And there's loads and loads of articles just like that

So you're saying the Journal has a better insight than the HSE?

deathbomber

deathbomber wrote: »

the supposed reinfection cases of which i have heard of 2 possible cases but medics are unsure if the 2 people had actually fully recovered in the first place. Further analysis of the virus suggest people who were infected, will not bee reinfected (antibodies now present in their body system etc)

Which I broadly agree with. But curious where tinychancer got their information. Intrigued by this endocrine receptors business.

BloodBath

deathbomber wrote: »

the supposed reinfection cases of which i have heard of 2 possible cases but medics are unsure if the 2 people had actually fully recovered in the first place. Further analysis of the virus suggest people who were infected, will not bee reinfected (antibodies now present in their body system etc)

Combination of things.

A. Testing of areas that weren't tested previously where the virus was lying dormant.

B. People with weak immune systems can catch many things more than once as their body can't produce enough anti bodies to provide immunity.

Makes a great headline though.

macwal

Multipass wrote: »

There was definitely a slight buzz of that in the supermarket just now. A lot more full trolleys than normal. I saw one guy with about 50 can of beans, he'll be too healthy to catch any virus soon

He's probably building a fart... I mean fort.

the butcher

Ger Roe wrote: »

Not a very helpful comment - posts like this just derail the thread. Why bother posting at all, if there is nothing helpful or factual to say?

You obviously haven't been reading the thread properly as if you've read any of my posts, most of them are links to updates/reports/graphs/research :rolleyes:

I think the odd humorous comment shouldn't be voided.

https://twitter.com/wallerABC7/status/1235563288043405313

Bass Reeves

https://youtu.be/nR0lOtdvqyg

Somebody may have put it up already but........

cnocbui

owlbethere wrote: »

I was thinking this myself. What is the attraction to a Skiing holiday in Italy? It doesn't appeal to me anyways.

Each to their own but We did a ski trip to Val Gardena. One of the best holidays ever. Fantastic food, scenery and fun.

RollieFingers

Multipass wrote: »

There was definitely a slight buzz of that in the supermarket just now. A lot more full trolleys than normal. I saw one guy with about 50 can of beans, he'll be too healthy to catch any virus soon

Been in Tesco and Dunnes in the city centre in the last hour, both fully stocked and no sign of panic whatsoever.

woohoo!!!

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the 2% rate has to be the most random figure ever thrown around in history

I've repeated already it's an illustration, not a prediction. Or is that difficult to read and comprehend.

IQO

Netherlands: confirmed Corona cases jumps from 38 to 82 today.

Source; https://www.rivm.nl/nieuws/actuele-informatie-over-coronavirus

BloodBath

Daz_ wrote: »

Seems like you can’t say stuff like this or it’s just “confirmation bias” or some other fancy terminology ...

Not saying it isn't happening. I'm saying it's not happening in my town. I wouldn't be surprised if the ones on here haven't stirred some family and friends into a frenzy to clear out those items from their local stores. It's far from a nationwide problem though and there are 0 problems with the supply chain atm.

If people chilled the feck out there would be no shortages of anything.

quokula

Whestsidestory wrote: »

Pasta from Italy and Rice from China ��

You're right, best order risotto and noodles.

gabeeg

Cw85 wrote: »

So you're saying the Journal has a better insight than the HSE?

No, the journal are quoting the HSE.
I can get you the Irish Times quoting the HSE if you like?

I'm saying that the piece the HSE has put up on its website is way off. Perhaps they're calculating those numbers over a long period of time, but it does not reflect the reality today.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't believe you. Why would the coronavirus be lying dormant in the Pancreas where the endocrine receptors are? I've seen no evidence of case studies of reinfection.
And obviously, source?

Well it's a novel virus, so the evidence that we have to go on is limited, which is why I'm merely suggesting that attempting to get infected to 'get through it' is not recommended at this point.

Here is a study of the SARS virus where the "localization of ACE2 expression in the endocrine part of the pancreas suggests that SARS coronavirus enters islets using ACE2 as its receptor and damages islets causing acute diabetes".

I'm still trying to find the link to the more thorough article from yesterday which was a study of a patient with Encephalitis.

Ah, here is a similar one.

Nijmegen

Thread number 4 howareya! The preparations in the job have accelerated mightily this week. Also talking to a lot of businesses that are already seeing the impact of the spread. First governments now businesses seem to have got on the "It's bad" bandwagon, I'm sure the public might follow eventually.

The HSE are only announcing cases once per day? I wonder if that is wise if the numbers are gonna go up quickly, as we have to assume they will (if we follow the way many other countries have gone) or are you better off drip dripping it out in smaller looking numbers (of course we can all count at the end of the day).