Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

sjb25

niallo27 wrote: »

I dont even like pasta, what am I going do.

...

Drumpot

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

But there simply isn't enough stock for everyone to 'prepare' to the extent of buying month's worth of toilet paper and soap. If you're one of the people buying 20 at a time, you are depriving those who need it *now*.

There was plenty of stock weeks ago for everybody. Anything I’ve bought has already been replenished. I’ve not done a big shopping for weeks have been just buying week to week stuff like everybody else. Shops appear to be still well Stocked anyways. You keep making presumptions you are not in a position to make.

Mwengwe

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

It's too late. The selfish stockpilers have already cleaned everything out around here. I've managed to order a few packs of toilet paper, but God forbid I need hand gel because I can't find it anywhere. Just hope my hospital won't have run out, because last time I was there, people were stealing it. People have also been stealing it at work. We had it out at reception and other places, and people have taken it. Pure selfishness and greed.

Again, the PANIC is the entire problem. If everyone just ****ing calmed down and bought as normal, there would BE no shortages of anything.



But there simply isn't enough stock for everyone to 'prepare' to the extent of buying month's worth of toilet paper and soap. If you're one of the people buying 20 at a time, you are depriving those who need it *now*.



Except that won't happen, will it? The type of person who has already bought dozens of everything will head in and buy up all the stock again 'just in case', because that's the type of person they are.

This virus has just illustrated how fcking selfish vast swathes of the population are. The people who are young and healthy and are probably going to be fine don't need 20 bottles of hand gel. The people who need it can't get it. By the time the frenzy kicked off, it was already too late to find hand gel anywhere. And now I, an adult who is more vulnerable than most, have to go without it when I'm at higher risk because I'm often in hospital and touching things there, and more susceptible to picking up bugs.

The people who would survive this in the case of a major deadly pandemic are the selfish ones - just what future societies need.

Have you tried ordering some off ebay?

Timberrrrrrrr

namloc1980 wrote: »

The Mrs was in Aldi earlier and a fella came in and took 3 full boxes of pasta off the shelf and into his trolley. Around 15kg of pasta. Greedy git.

Or someone catering for a party?

CinemaGuy45

namloc1980 wrote: »

He tried to. The manager told him to put 2 boxes back. Greedy fcuk.

My first reply was a joke but being serious I am glad to see the manager putting a stop to this messing.

Graces7

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Just done my usual weekly shop. I bought double everything but bigger packs of mince and chicken for freezing. The same as last week.

That should see me out for a 3 weeks or so if I had to isolate.

Next I'm off to buy a guitar. Always wanted to learn to play so now could be a good opportunity.

Perfect! Just realised I omitted to order.... CHOCOLATE ! I mean really! ( Goes into severe cocoa withdrawal..!)

pc7

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

No shortage of anything other then hand sanitizer in shops near me. I think the panic buying is a being exaggerated

Plus one to this, in lidl this morning shelved were full, freezers were being filled, they’d palettes of loo roll and water. Only thing missing was sanitizer but they’ve had none for well over a week now.

Fr Tod Umptious

Ellsbells1 wrote: »

I was on a sideline this morning at a kids soccer match and heard one of the parents saying it doesn’t affect kids. Some people are so naive.

The lady on the Late Late Show last night, the PHN representative said that so far as has been observed the effect on children is far less than that on adults.

So even though children can get it it's effects are less.

So maybe that person was not as naive as you would like to think.

MarkY91

My Thai friend said that any Thai people going on holidays away from Thailand will be faced with a mandatory 14 day self isolation upon returning.

She also thinks it's being under reported there with far too few tests being done.

I'll be there in s few weeks. Not reassuring at all

DrumSteve

I believe Bruce Aylward was referring to young doctors dying and it being hard to explain; not the general populace.

s7ryf3925pivug

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

It's too late. The selfish stockpilers have already cleaned everything out around here. I've managed to order a few packs of toilet paper, but God forbid I need hand gel because I can't find it anywhere. Just hope my hospital won't have run out, because last time I was there, people were stealing it. People have also been stealing it at work. We had it out at reception and other places, and people have taken it. Pure selfishness and greed.

Again, the PANIC is the entire problem. If everyone just ****ing calmed down and bought as normal, there would BE no shortages of anything.



But there simply isn't enough stock for everyone to 'prepare' to the extent of buying month's worth of toilet paper and soap. If you're one of the people buying 20 at a time, you are depriving those who need it *now*.



Except that won't happen, will it? The type of person who has already bought dozens of everything will head in and buy up all the stock again 'just in case', because that's the type of person they are.

This virus has just illustrated how fcking selfish vast swathes of the population are. The people who are young and healthy and are probably going to be fine don't need 20 bottles of hand gel. The people who need it can't get it. By the time the frenzy kicked off, it was already too late to find hand gel anywhere. And now I, an adult who is more vulnerable than most, have to go without it when I'm at higher risk because I'm often in hospital and touching things there, and more susceptible to picking up bugs.

The people who would survive this in the case of a major deadly pandemic are the selfish ones - just what future societies need.

I got a trolleyful of goods from different shops a couple of times a week for a few weeks. Always left plenty except when there were only a couple of items available. I've been following these threads from the start and that is the same pattern everyone else seemed to follow too. Sudden panic buyers are clearing the shelves, not people who've been stockpiling for weeks.

Timberrrrrrrr

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

It's too late. The selfish stockpilers have already cleaned everything out around here. I've managed to order a few packs of toilet paper, but God forbid I need hand gel because I can't find it anywhere. Just hope my hospital won't have run out, because last time I was there, people were stealing it. People have also been stealing it at work. We had it out at reception and other places, and people have taken it. Pure selfishness and greed.

Again, the PANIC is the entire problem. If everyone just ****ing calmed down and bought as normal, there would BE no shortages of anything.



But there simply isn't enough stock for everyone to 'prepare' to the extent of buying month's worth of toilet paper and soap. If you're one of the people buying 20 at a time, you are depriving those who need it *now*.



Except that won't happen, will it? The type of person who has already bought dozens of everything will head in and buy up all the stock again 'just in case', because that's the type of person they are.

This virus has just illustrated how fcking selfish vast swathes of the population are. The people who are young and healthy and are probably going to be fine don't need 20 bottles of hand gel. The people who need it can't get it. By the time the frenzy kicked off, it was already too late to find hand gel anywhere. And now I, an adult who is more vulnerable than most, have to go without it when I'm at higher risk because I'm often in hospital and touching things there, and more susceptible to picking up bugs.

The people who would survive this in the case of a major deadly pandemic are the selfish ones - just what future societies need.

Just been to Asda, shelves full, plenty of loo roll/kitchen towels. Hand sanitizer is in short supply but managed to get that a few weeks ago from Wilko's. Off to Morrisons next for the rest of my shopping, not noticing any panic buying/overloaded trollies so far though.

Funsterdelux

namloc1980 wrote: »

The Mrs was in Aldi earlier and a fella came in and took 3 full boxes of pasta off the shelf and into his trolley. Around 15kg of pasta. Greedy git.

Buy some roosters, if they dont get eaten they can be planted and you ll be self suffient.

jam_mac_jam

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Or someone catering for a party?

Or maybe it never happened

Graces7

Graces7 wrote: »

Perfect! Just realised I omitted to order.... CHOCOLATE ! I mean really! ( Goes into severe cocoa withdrawal..!)

Get knitting face masks, Grace! You’ll make a fortune

J Mysterio

https://twitter.com/OMahonyDoireann/status/1236072144699830273

Graces7

It must be so hard out there for so many. Easy for me . Be safe and strong

Graces7

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Get knitting face masks, Grace! You’ll make a fortune

I wish I could !

https://twitter.com/vincentbrowne/status/1236028289183084544

jam_mac_jam

Graces7 wrote: »

Perfect! Just realised I omitted to order.... CHOCOLATE ! I mean really! ( Goes into severe cocoa withdrawal..!)

If you run out I will post you some. It's a necessity

pc7

Same as bleugh, jeez think it was the week they locked Wuhan down I added one extra of our usuals (non perishable) to the trolley every week. I’ve asthma so it was more if I had to isolate or if it peaks I could avoid going out.

Irish Guitarist

Last years parade.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/warmest-of-welcomes-in-capital-as-500000-join-in-st-patricks-day-fun-37924542.html

I'm supposed to constantly wash my hands and not touch my own face in case I infect myself but there would be no problem if I stood in a crowd of half a million people. What a load of shite.

Graces7

Dorian Damp Text wrote: »

I got a trolleyful of goods from different shops a couple of times a week for a few weeks. Always left plenty except when there were only a couple of items available. I've been following these threads from the start and that is the same pattern everyone else seemed to follow too. Sudden panic buyers are clearing the shelves, not people who've been stockpiling for weeks.

And by doing so we have given the shops time to restock . Just a few extras each week. It was and is right and thoughtful.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

Here's an open letter with some startling facts.

Dear Minister Harris,

I have concerns regarding the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) and our country's early response to it.

South Korea has the second highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases after China (6,593 confirmed cases on 06/03/20). 80,000 people have been tested. Whenever a new case is identified an emergency text message is sent to everyone letting them know where. Next a timeline is given of the person's whereabouts over the previous 48-72 hours so that if someone has been to those areas, they can present for testing. Those places are immediately shut down and sterilised. (This could be an invasion of personal privacy, but it shows the lengths some countries are going to). All schools and many businesses have been shut the past week and will remain shut next week.

Learn more

In Daegu, 1900 Shincheoji Church members at the epicentre of the outbreak were tested. 1300 had symptoms, 600 did not. Among those 1300 with symptoms, 87.5% were confirmed coronavirus. Of the 600 WITHOUT symptoms, 70% were confirmed with coronavirus.

Contrast this with Italy: testing is now only on individuals showing symptoms. Here in Ireland after the first confirmed case Dr. John Cuddihy, director of the Health Protection Surveillance Centre, said 'It is important to note that the risk of transmission through casual contact is low'. This is strictly probably true but very misleading as we know each person passes it to between 3 to 7 others and often do so before they realise they are a vector themselves.

Approximately 80% suffer mild symptoms, 15% need hospitalisation and 5% require ICU. If 0.2% of Ireland's 5 million people contract this virus, that would mean 1,500 hospitalisations and 500 ICU admissions. Our secondary care system simply cannot manage it. We only have approximately 250 ICU beds in the whole country and they are at maximum capacity. Thankfully no deaths have been reported in those aged under 9 years.

At this moment it only appears like cases in Europe are manageable. Ten days ago Italy was the only country in Europe with more than 100 cases. Today, 06/03/20, Italy has 3,858, France 577, Germany 578, Spain 386, Switzerland 214, UK 163, Netherlands 128, Belgium 109, Norway 108, Sweden 101). The first 2 cases were confirmed in Italy on January 31st. Now on March 6th, 35 days later there are 3,858 cases in Italy including a staggering 148 deaths and 351 in serious/critical condition. This equates to a doubling time of close to 3 days.

In Ireland we are currently in the early phase of exponential growth. Exponential growth is a pattern of growth that shows greater increases with passing time. It is easier to understand when viewed on a graph (see below). The slope is gradual at first (allowing people to think that cases are under control). However, once a critical number is reached the graph bends steeply upwards as cases appear at quickening pace. I believe the critical number could be approximately 100 cases.

In Ireland the testing criteria were changed yesterday morning after the confirmation last night of our first case of community transmission in Cork. The criteria now include those with fever of unknown cause plus other specific symptoms. This is to be welcomed. However, the testing criteria are still too strict. We will soon need to start testing anyone with any symptoms and even those without symptoms like is happening in South Korea or we will miss the potential for early identification of pockets of severe outbreaks. There are anecdotal reports of people returning from holidays in Italy over the past month with flu-like illness but not meeting the criteria for testing. This raises the possibility that coronavirus has been circulating undetected for the past 4-5 weeks.

Around the world the strategy is containment but very soon will be mitigation. China (30% of the world's manufacturing) shut down almost all their industry in Hubei and the Greater Pearl River Delta. Japan has shut down schools. South Korea has closed schools and churches. Iran has mobilised 300,000 soldiers and volunteers. The US states of California, Maryland and Washington State have declared a state of emergency. Italy quarantined 11 towns in Lombardy and Veneto and is considering expanding the 'red zone'. France has banned gatherings larger than 5000 in a confined space. Sweden has banned gatherings larger than 1000. Schools have been closed in Italy and in Greece. Europe is moving towards mass quarantine and social distancing.

The HSE is wisely promoting:

- Wash your hands properly and often
- Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve when you cough and sneeze
- Put used tissues into a bin and wash your hands
- Keep hands away from face (nose, mouth, eyes)
- Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces
- Try to avoid close contact with people who are unwell

This advice is sensible and important. However, we must consider much more stringent measures. I believe these measures must be put into place in the next week or the virus may have spread too widely to contain. Consider that the doubling time of COVID-19 is approximately three days. We currently have 13 cases in Ireland, doubling every three days opens the possibility of 250-300 cases in 2 weeks time and greater than 1000 cases in 3 weeks time. Over the next few days people must be informed of the necessary social distancing measures so that they can prepare both psychologically and organisationally. We need to strongly consider the following:

- Cancel all St. Patrick’s Day celebrations
- Cancel all sporting events
- Cancel large social events
- Restrict all non-essential travel
- Close all schools and universities and put in place home schooling measures
- Early adoption of working from home where possible

Once a total number of 100 cases has been reached in a country, it seems almost impossible to contain. Singapore and Hong Kong are the only two countries to hold their cases at around 100 (even Singapore reported 13 cases today). These are both city states so may have an advantage over other countries.

I realise these are highly unpalatable measures for anyone to implement. As a doctor I am only looking at what needs to be done to save lives. The government is faced with the uncomfortable responsibility of balancing three areas: stopping the virus, keeping the economy going and avoiding overloading the hospitals. Strong leadership is required. Draconian measures like shutting down whole cities was what was required in China's worst affected regions. We must act quickly and decisively in the hope that we delay the spread until summer when warmer weather and sunlight may arrest COVID-19's growth.

Failure to put in place these measures now will leave our most vulnerable citizens: the elderly, the immunocompromised and those with chronic diseases, requiring ICU beds and mechanical ventilation machines that will be simply unavailable. Our already understaffed and under resourced health system will be unable to cope. We need to take early and decisive heed of the lessons from China and Italy. This is more contagious and causes more ICU admissions than viruses we have seen before. It can spread before someone shows symptoms. Other countries have reacted too late to the extreme, unpalatable measures that will be required to reduce the peak number and speed of spread of this infection.

Yours sincerely,

Dr. Domhnall Heron
GP Registrar

Graces7

Graces7 wrote: »

I wish I could !

You forgot the wool, didn’t you? Is there no sheep you can shear?

CinemaGuy45

Irish Guitarist wrote: »

Last years parade.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/warmest-of-welcomes-in-capital-as-500000-join-in-st-patricks-day-fun-37924542.html

I'm supposed to constantly wash my hands and not touch my own face in case I infect myself but there would be no problem if I stood in a crowd of half a million people. What a load of shite.

Alert we have another trouble maker.

pc7

pc7 wrote: »

Same as bleugh, jeez think it was the week they locked Wuhan down I added one extra of our usuals (non perishable) to the trolley every week. I’ve asthma so it was more if I had to isolate or if it peaks I could avoid going out.

Same as. I’m gonna go back to thread one and check the date.

saabsaab

dan786 wrote: »

There are 18 rapid response cars out around the country today, available for home testing for people who have reported possible Covid-19 symptoms and who meet the at-risk criteria

Good

pc7

Was posted earlier TC, excellent letter. Wonder have they been on the thread

That letter combines with the Patrick’s day parade above it shows how stupid it is that they haven’t cancelled.

lainey_d_123

Mwengwe wrote: »

Have you tried ordering some off ebay?

Only some dodgy brand left, and even that has had the price hiked up. I've ordered stuff to make my own, but really, if it wasn't for the media panic, there would be plenty left to go around.

I've lived through SARS, swine flu and serious political unrest abroad and never in my life do I remember this level of panic or not being able to buy something I needed.