Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Bob24

DrumSteve wrote: »

Where?

Only seeing 63 myself.

That'd more than double their current amount.

949 is the new total count for France. Just given at a government press conference 15 mins ago.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/coronavirus-cinq-nouveaux-deces-en-france-le-bilan-passe-a-16-morts-20200307

blanch152

owlbethere wrote: »

That makes sense.


Is there anything our government can do to help us?

Is there anything the EU can do to stop or slow down this disease spreading around Europe?

blanch152 wrote: »

Your government can’t make you wash your hands.

It can’t make you give up your trip to Cheltenham, Old Trafford or Anfield.

Neither can it stop the idiots turning up at A&E claiming to have the Coronavirus instead of ringing the helpline. Or what about those drunks who will be clogging it up tonight having fallen face down when plastered. The government didn’t make them drink.

Why are Irish people so childish that they need the government to help them when the solutions are in their own hands with a little bit of personal responsibility.

It is in our own hands literally. Wash them.

Blueshoe

VinLieger wrote: »

He doesn't actually care about the markets though he cares about re-election and his problem is hes based so much of of his presidency on how well the markets are doing

He did sign off on an 8 billion dollar bill to fight the virus.

We don't even have a government

saabsaab

Skylar Mammoth Spike wrote: »

Highly irrelevant sample period, and the day isn't over yet.

The general expectation is for the numbers to double every 5-7days, for most countries. The peak is still 12wks away. It will then take another 12wks to gradually reduce.

Then there is also a likelyhood for it to re-emerge Novemeber. A vax likely won't be available, until early Spring 2021. Mutations/strains are also a possibility. There is no good news likely with COVID19 anytime soon.

Outside of China, perhaps one or two other regimes with very stringent, even draconian curfew-type measures, it's here for a the long-haul.

Are you saying that we could be like Italy in 3-4 weeks time?

freshpopcorn

Duggie2012

I was listening to a scientist or whatever they were on bbc radio the other morning. She was saying people have been working on a generic type vacine for years and only need the make up of the particular virus to kinda make it up. Does that make sense? She seemed fairly confident one could be ready fairly quickly but then the testing and trials etc take a long time before it would get to market. Im sure someone would be able to elaborate on it. It was interesting tho.

Drumpot

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Have to say it looks like the Italians have made a right mess of this.

True but it also Seems like the rest of Europe can’t get enough of whatever Italy are flying out of their country. If you don’t want to stop flights then Why the hell aren’t people coming from Italy automatically in self quarantine? Why don’t they just say if you have been in Italy in the last 2 weeks it’s self quarantine or jail if you are found to be lieing? Doesn’t matter then if somebody comes through London or some other job. How bad is it going to have to get before they cop on?

The only conclusion I can make is that this is seen like a European solution (Bury head from science about viruss spreading on planes and profess solidarity).

VinLieger

Blueshoe wrote: »

He did sign off on an 8 billion dollar bill to fight the virus.

We don't even have a government

Yet he's gone on TV saying the numbers arent as bad as people say so as usual hes talking out both sides of his mouth

ACitizenErased

VinLieger wrote: »

South Korea show that more testing and more confirmed cases is not actually a bad thing


https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

I think that's why the WHO are saying the fatality rate will decrease. A lot of the milder cases are simply not being reported.

4068ac1elhodqr

blanch152 wrote: »

It’s called human trials and waiting to see if there are side-effects.
The point of a vaccine is that it kills less people than the disease, you need to check this with real people.

Yes, animal testing, then (small) sample groups of humans <45. Then larger groups, then approval, final certification etc.

If 10k people develop necropsy or something untoward from it, that's one very large legal bill for Pharma. The FDA already warned against rushing trials in any attempt to rush a product to market.

RandomName2

MadYaker wrote: »

More bs from yet another uninformed idiot. If you're going to post your own personal ramblings based on nothing you should make it clear that thats what the post is. Some people read sh!te like this and take it seriously.

Is there anything that you can point out that is erroneous? I know that the onus is on the original poster to provide evidence, but I'm having less and less patience with blanket replies of 'ramblings' 'idiot' 'sh!te'.

The only precedence for the November rebound would the 1918 flu pandemic, but you could argue that those were different circumstances, with a different disease.

Skylar Mammoth Spike

Skylar Mammoth Spike wrote: »

Highly irrelevant sample period, and the day isn't over yet.

The general expectation is for the numbers to double every 5-7days, for most countries. The peak is still 12wks away. It will then take another 12wks to gradually reduce.

Then there is also a likelyhood for it to re-emerge Novemeber. A vax likely won't be available, until early Spring 2021. Mutations/strains are also a possibility. There is no good news likely with COVID19 anytime soon.

Outside of China, perhaps one or two other regimes with very stringent, even draconian curfew-type measures, it's here for a the long-haul.

I did a quick calculation based on this, and it will result in Ireland having approx 20,000 cases in 12 weeks, if the figures double every week.

20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, 2560, 5120, 10240, 20480

There are 255 ICU beds in the Irish system today.

The health system would buckle. I wonder would you have a link to back up this data please.

ACitizenErased

Drumpot wrote: »

True but it also Seems like the rest of Europe can’t get enough of whatever Italy are flying out of their country. If you don’t want to stop flights then Why the hell aren’t people coming from Italy automatically in self quarantine? Why don’t they just say if you have been in Italy in the last 2 weeks it’s self quarantine or jail if you are found to be lieing. Doesn’t matter then if somebody comes through London or some other job.

The only conclusion I can make is that this is seen like a European solution (Bury head from science about viruss spreading on planes and profess solidarity).

I've no doubt that the airline industry are pushing governments to not act honestly.

otnomart

Strazdas wrote: »

One would imagine travel between France / Germany and northern Italy would have been much higher for the last few weeks than the UK and Italy.

In Germany it spead faster also because of the Carnival (as in the North Rhine-Westfalia cluster)

In France the cluster in the Oise is due to first victim being in hospital undiagnosed for 6 days, while the cluster in Munhuose is due to a religious meeting which lasted a few days.

Pacing Mule

dan786 wrote: »

One more case of coronavirus is confirmed in east of country, bringing the total to 19.

Why do you insist on posting in bold do you mind me asking?

ACitizenErased

Midfield Major wrote: »

Only 1 new case in Eire ? Worst has passed ?

We should expect more. Considering that all contacts of previous cases should have been tested by now however, one new case is a good result for today. You have to take it day by day really.

Away With The Fairies

Is there such a thing as mild pneumonia? Because this is what it is, symptoms are cough, fever, shortness of breath.

Bob24

freshpopcorn wrote: »

Ah the good olds “meatless meat balls” and “sans chicken chasseur”! The shelf where everything is always on clearance sale at my local M&S :-D

LessOutragePlz

VinLieger wrote: »

South Korea show that more testing and more confirmed cases is not actually a bad thing


https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

As good as that article is if one person dies from it in Ireland with the current numbers certain posters will use it as a weapon to spread fear and panic among people. For example if we have 1 death from 20 cases they'll be quick to throw out a 5% mortality rate to create hysteria and panic among people.

Yurt2

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I've no doubt that the airline industry are pushing governments to not act honestly.

With all the leasing business done here and being home to Europe's largest airline, I've no doubt that lobbying has gone into overdrive.

RandomName2

blanch152 wrote: »

It’s called human trials and waiting to see if there are side-effects.

The point of a vaccine is that it kills less people than the disease, you need to check this with real people.

The vaccine for Swine flu was developed much much faster than this. The vaccine for covid-19 will take so long that it will probably be meaningless. I'm guessing that the lawsuits after the swine flu vaccine (in relation to narcolepsy) has caused them to add in layers of health and safety checks that will push back its delivery by six months.

Midfield Major

Midfield Major wrote: »

Only 1 new case in Eire ? Worst has passed ?

Unfortunately, I don't believe so.

Arrival

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pr1aXn8_F3I

Humberto Salazar

One new case, the worst may be over folks.

ACitizenErased

Yurt! wrote: »

With all the leasing business done here and being home to Europe's largest airline, I've no doubt that lobbying has gone into overdrive.

That's the way the world has gone unfortunately. Our government is the poster-boy of that sorta stuff.

Seamai

SeaBreezes wrote: »

b

There is community spread? The guy in his forties in ICU in CUH? They have no idea where he got it from?

I'm not sure why everyone is scratching their head about this, I'm guessing someone attending to him in ICU had either

Blueshoe

VinLieger wrote: »

Yet he's gone on TV saying the numbers arent as bad as people say so as usual hes talking out both sides of his mouth

That politics

RandomName2

RandomName2 wrote: »

The vaccine for Swine flu was developed much much faster than this. The vaccine for covid-19 will take so long that it will probably be meaningless. I'm guessing that the lawsuits after the swine flu vaccine (in relation to narcolepsy) has caused them to add in layers of health and safety checks that will push back its delivery by six months.

Which is fair enough. Narcolepsy is awful.

niallo27

Deleted User wrote: »

I did a quick calculation based on this, and it will result in Ireland having approx 20,000 cases in 12 weeks, if the figures double every week.

20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, 2560, 5120, 10240, 20480

There are 255 ICU beds in the Irish system today.

The health system would buckle. I wonder would you have a link to back up this data please.

Yes but how many of these would need hospital treatment.

Call Me Jimmy

fr336 wrote: »

I'm not getting ahead of myself here as it's looking bad for everyone but is it worth note that France and Germany are surging ahead meanwhile UK posting relatively modest growth and Ireland tiny? Obviously with air travel the island thing can be overdone but makes you wonder.

The UK is the shining light of europe because they have maintained it the longest but there is a lag time in all the graphs that move into sustained growth. That's why I don't assume too much about the UK and nothing about Ireland from one day.

Look at all the start of graphs with an outbreak to get an idea of why zooming in on one day or two and feeling hope or despair is stupid.