Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Drumpot

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I've no doubt that the airline industry are pushing governments to not act honestly.

Agreed, There’s a lot of economic variables manipulating countries away from Common sense and making this into a far worse problem.

I can’t think on any level why people flying in and out of Northern Italy is a positive. Then when you factor in how many countries trace their own outbreak to Italy It’s even more mind boggling.

Strazdas

Deleted User wrote: »

I did a quick calculation based on this, and it will result in Ireland having approx 20,000 cases in 12 weeks if the figures double every week.

20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, 2560, 5120, 10240, 20480

There are 255 ICU beds in the Irish system today.

The health system would buckle. I wonder would you have a link to back up this data please.

In theory yes, but these flu like viruses tend to have peaks and then the numbers start falling quickly again of their own accord (in three months time, it will be summer in Ireland).

Nobody in the medical community seems to believe Ireland will have 20,000 cases.

odyssey06

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Is there such a thing as mild pneumonia? Because this is what it is, symptoms are cough, fever, shortness of breath.

There is such a thing as walking pneumonia which is the mildest form... doesn't require hospital treatment:
https://www.webmd.com/lung/walking-pneumonia#1

But I think coronavirus pneumonia on a whole other level from what I've read.

ACitizenErased

Drumpot wrote: »

Agreed, There’s a lot of economic variables manipulating countries away from Common sense and making this into a far worse problem.

I can’t think on any level why people flying in and out of Northern Italy is a positive. Then when you factor in how many countries trace their own outbreak to Italy It’s even more mind boggling.

I'm not really sure why the media haven't been questioning this tbh. Probably wouldn't get enough clicks.

Juwwi

Why don't countries stop flights from Italy altogether ,, arrange flights to bring back stranded holiday makers who they then put into quarantine for 2 weeks and test ,, we are only at the early stages of this it's not too late.

The Italians who were due to come here on holiday won't start buying flights to France and then another one on to here .

gozunda

otnomart wrote: »

Most of the infections in Europe were caused by a single case in Germany.

"a decent fraction (10/43) of sequenced viruses sampled after Feb 1 belong to a particular genetic lineage
This lineage contains viruses sampled from Germany, Switzerland, Finland, Italy, Brazil and Mexico
At the base of this lineage lies the sample Germany/BavPat1/2020. This was "patient 1" in Bavaria who was infected by a business colleague visiting from China. "
https://nextstrain.org/ncov

This is the known timeline for Europe:*

• end of January - First case in Germany (BavPat1) - linked to China
  • Article from the New England Journal of Medicine
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...d-mnX3d9F_WRzM
• 13 February in Valencia - First known death in Europe - diagnosed only this week - no known links to China
• also 13 February: first French victim from Crépy-en-Valois (with no links to neither China nor Italy) started developing symptoms. He was diagnosed after 6 days in Creil hospital.
• 20 February in Italy - first patient is diagnosed there - after 1.5 days in hospital - no known links to China

*Thats not correct.

The first cases of the coronavirus in Italy were confirmed on 31 January 2020, when two Chinese tourists in Rome tested positive for coronavirus disease

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_gennaio_30/coronavirus-italia-corona-9d6dc436-4343-11ea-bdc8-faf1f56f19b7.shtml

Further cases in Italy were confirmed a short time later

Loafing Oaf

odyssey06 wrote: »

There is such a thing as walking pneumonia

Wonder is that linked to galloping consumption:P

owlbethere

blanch152 wrote: »

Your government can’t make you wash your hands.

It can’t make you give up your trip to Cheltenham, Old Trafford or Anfield.

Neither can it stop the idiots turning up at A&E claiming to have the Coronavirus instead of ringing the helpline. Or what about those drunks who will be clogging it up tonight having fallen face down when plastered. The government didn’t make them drink.

Why are Irish people so childish that they need the government to help them when the solutions are in their own hands with a little bit of personal responsibility.

I'm not responsible for what other people do. I'm taking this very very seriously.
I'm washing my hands and using tissues for any cough/sneeze or using my elbow.

I'm lying low and avoiding crowds and limiting my time in public.

I'm not responsible for others turning up in a+e showing signs of Corona. I woke up coughing myself this morning but I relaxed and did not panic. I kept an eye on my temp all day. The coughing stopped and I did not rush to phone a hotline or go to a+e. I think it was because I slept in a draught.

I don't get drunk. I'm not responsible for others if they decide to go out and get drunk.

I really think our government could be doing more.

Nonoperational

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Is there such a thing as mild pneumonia? Because this is what it is, symptoms are cough, fever, shortness of breath.

Not everybody gets pneumonia. And pneumonia varies massively.

spookwoman

From rte website

Test results take five to six hours from when they get to the National Virus Reference Laboratory. So generally, test results would be available to patients in about 36 hours.

blanch152

Drumpot wrote: »

Agreed, There’s a lot of economic variables manipulating countries away from Common sense and making this into a far worse problem.

I can’t think on any level why people flying in and out of Northern Italy is a positive. Then when you factor in how many countries trace their own outbreak to Italy It’s even more mind boggling.

So your solution was to leave thousands of Irish kids out in North Italy for months because as it turns out, one of them had the Coronavirus?

Do you realise how silly that is, and how unnecessary? Have you thought of the unnecessary hardship those kids would have suffered? Sometimes I despair at the reasoning going on here.

4068ac1elhodqr

saabsaab wrote: »

Are you saying that we could be like Italy in 3-4 weeks time?

Ireland 7 March : 20, then 5/7days (6 average double)

13 Mar: 40
20... .80
26... 160
1 Apr... 320
7... 640
13.. 1,280
20... 2,560
26... 5,120
2 May... 10,240
8... 20,480
14... 40,960
20... 81,920
26.. 163,840 (early peak)
1 June... 327,680 (late peak)

GM228

RandomName2 wrote: »

The vaccine for Swine flu was developed much much faster than this. The vaccine for covid-19 will take so long that it will probably be meaningless. I'm guessing that the lawsuits after the swine flu vaccine (in relation to narcolepsy) has caused them to add in layers of health and safety checks that will push back its delivery by six months.

Don't forget swine flu was just another flu strain, they knew how to combat it very quickly due to previous flu strain vaccines, and knew how the strain acted etc, the H1N1 vaccine was modified from an already researched H5N1 (avian flu) vaccine. COVID-19 is something completely new which is not fully understood yet.

1641

Blueshoe wrote: »

He did sign off on an 8 billion dollar bill to fight the virus.

We don't even have a government

The 8 billion bill was presented to him by Congress without any input from him. All he had to do was sign it. Other than that all he has done is call the outbreak a Democrat conspiracy.

blanch152

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

The UK is the shining light of europe because they have maintained it the longest but there is a lag time in all the graphs that move into sustained growth. That's why I don't assume too much about the UK and nothing about Ireland from one day.

Look at all the start of graphs with an outbreak to get an idea of why zooming in on one day or two and feeling hope or despair is stupid.

Flattening the graph so that the health system can cope is one of the key objectives.

odyssey06

Strazdas wrote: »

In theory yes, but these flu like viruses tend to have peaks and then the numbers start falling quickly again of their own accord (in three months time, it will be summer in Ireland).

Nobody in the medical community seems to believe Ireland will have 20,000 cases.

Source?
Who has said we will have less than 20000 cases here in 2020.

Loafing Oaf

Juwwi wrote: »

Why don't countries stop flights from Italy altogether ,, arrange flights to bring back stranded holiday makers who they then put into quarantine for 2 weeks and test ,, we are only at the early stages of this it's not too late.

The Italians who were due to come here on holiday won't start buying flights to France and then another one on to here .

Health Minister Simon Harris has effectively ruled out restricting flights arriving in Dublin from Northern Italy due to the coronavirus.

Doesn't seem much point bringing this up any more...

Call Me Jimmy

blanch152 wrote: »

Flattening the graph so that the health system can cope is one of the key objectives.

Aye I've been saying that for days as people say we can't really control it.

I Am The Law

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Talking to my architect this morning. He's going to Northern Italy in 3 weeks with family. Said if you calculate population of Italy by cases or Corona, and do same with Ireland, you're as safe in Italy as here. He's not cancelling trip, and he's a clever guy so I dunno what to think.

Doesn't sound too clever to me, sounds like the typical arrogance of the Irish Nouveau riche.

Blueshoe

1641 wrote: »

The 8 billion bill was presented to him by Congress without any input from him. All he had to do was sign it. Other than that all he has done is call the outbreak a Democrat conspiracy.

You hardly believe the president personally handles the day to day running of countries do you?
He's just there to talk bollocks and sign bills.
The CDC are handling this. He said the democrats were trying to politicise the outbreak to attack him. He is quoted saying the above.

Stop watching tabloid news and actually read quoted statements. The man is a gowl but some of the half stories that do the rounds are pure fantasy.

The cure for this virus will come from the Us. Nothing will come from the HSE. Our third world health system will be shown up.

owlbethere

odyssey06 wrote: »

There is such a thing as walking pneumonia which is the mildest form... doesn't require hospital treatment:
https://www.webmd.com/lung/walking-pneumonia#1

But I think coronavirus pneumonia on a whole other level from what I've read.

That's very worrying. If capacity in hospitals is too much and they can't take in every body who's showing sickness. This can get very bad and distressing.

RandomName2

Deleted User wrote: »

Which is fair enough. Narcolepsy is awful.

Apparently you were at most 4 times more likely to develop narcolepsy if you had the vaccine than if you didn't, which really makes the risk pretty low. They shouldn't have been punished for developing a vaccine quickly. It was not known at the time how fatal swine flu would be.

Cee-Jay-Cee

fr336 wrote: »

There are all sorts of things you could put in place to at least look like you're doing something. For example supermarkets - all customers have to book a time slot online or over the phone for shopping. Yes it's inconvienient, yes it's out of the cosy little norm, but come on! I think one of the the reasons there's been no World war 3 is the western powers that be know their populations are so pampered they'd never be able to get them to do anything.....

I understand something has to be done but that it an utterly ridiculous suggestion. For a start it means every single supermarket setting up new web pages which take time and money. Then you have people who don’t have computers or smart phones to set up appointments. Look I’m not going to go on, it’s a stupid unworkable idea.

ACitizenErased

owlbethere wrote: »

That's very worrying. If capacity in hospitals is too much and they can't take in every body who's showing sickness. This can get very bad and distressing.

85% of patients require no hospital treatment.

Skylar Mammoth Spike

Skylar Mammoth Spike wrote: »

Ireland 7 March : 20, then 5/7days (6 average double)

13 Mar: 40
20... .80
26... 160
1 Apr... 320
7... 640
13.. 1,280
20... 2,560
26... 5,120
2 May... 10,240
8... 20,480
14... 40,960
20... 81,920
26.. 163,840 (early peak)
1 June... 327,680 (late peak)

what is this based on?

RandomName2

Blueshoe wrote: »

You hardly believe the president personally handles the day to day running of countries do you?
He's just there to talk bollocks and sign bills.

and appoint the people who do run the country

Strazdas

odyssey06 wrote: »

Source?
Who has said we will have less than 20000 cases here in 2020.

The 'source' was the person I was responding to, who projected 20k cases in Ireland in 12 weeks.

saabsaab

LessOutragePlz wrote: »

As good as that article is if one person dies from it in Ireland with the current numbers certain posters will use it as a weapon to spread fear and panic among people. For example if we have 1 death from 20 cases they'll be quick to throw out a 5% mortality rate to create hysteria and panic among people.

Don't want to panic anyone but isn't 1 in 20 5%?

Blueshoe

RandomName2 wrote: »

and appoint the people who do run the country

Right down to ordering the stationary for the post office. Yeah

ldy4mxonucwsq6

bennyl10 wrote: »

One confirmed today is very good news.
Does it mean theirs won’t be 15 tomorrow or Monday, of course not

But in terms of day to day, and some signs that the contact tracing and containment is working, this is good result!

Some here seem legitimately upset we don’t have 50 today so they Can shout ‘we’re all doomed’

Because 19 cases is absolutely not true, you and I both know that.

You really think Ireland is an exception and that contact tracing is going to make one hell of a difference?

Nowhere can contain this.