Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Xertz

Unfortunately, as that CT story will show, there are a lot of people talking and commenting and speculating, even those who are medics, who will be looking at this from a small focus point of view without understanding the broader picture and without the context.

Unless you’re getting information from virologists and epidemiologists with knowledge of how this is handled, frankly it’s all just armchair speculation and that would include some of the doctors who are chipping in with their particular take on it on US news especially.

It’s not that they’re wrong, but they’re often not seeing the implications and bigger picture of how a system can deal with this.

If you’d one or two patients in a hospital, then maybe you could deal with it with CT scans and so on. With this you’re potentially talking about a situation where there’ll be a significant % of the entire population infected and a relatively smaller % who will need to go to hospital. For the rest of us it’s likely to be an unpleasant couple of weeks at home and possibly with support from visiting medics and so on and doses of whatever medications work. There’s been some positive leads with certain antivirals and anti inflammatory medicines and so on.

It’s possible CT scanning may be useful in some cases. It’s also possible in Wuhan that it was being used to gather as much data as possible to develop solutions to this too. They’re in a far, far worse situation that is ever likely here and they also have had an ability to throw a command economy authoritarian state at it.

gmisk

MadYaker wrote: »

There isn't going to be a christmas!

Jaysus who are you the sheriff of Nottingham!?

Monkeynut

otnomart wrote: »

Hungary cancels National Day Celebrations on 15 March

At least their not hungry feckers. Pun intended.

thecretinhop

Itssoeasy wrote: »

There is another case confirmed in Galway but that would make 20 not 23.

galway bay saying 23 might be wrong

GM228

odyssey06 wrote: »

Why? Why were they doing CT scans in Wuhan as a diagnostic tool then?
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china

CT scans are to show the damage to the lungs well into the infection, they are not a diagnostic tool, they don't give a clinical diagnosis.

otnomart

Barcelona marathon (15 March) postponed to October

Stewball

thecretinhop wrote: »

ex teacher confirmed.it for me. uhg case mother in law parked at hospital for cinema came back 9pm saw poor lad being hauled out of hospital with amb workers in spacesuits as she called it.

Why would she park at the UHG to go to the Cinema?

Or am I missing something....

Nonoperational

odyssey06 wrote: »

Why? Why were they doing CT scans in Wuhan as a diagnostic tool then?
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china

Coronavirus causes a pattern of change in the lungs in severe disease as a result of both an acute infection and inflammatory pattern and a residual change. These changes, one of the most commonly reported is ground glass opacification, are non specific for coronavirus and are caused by many many other pathogens.

Retrospectively using CT scans would be futile as the changes are present with many other respiratory conditions and would statistically be massively more likely to be caused by something else. We see these "coronavirus" changes on CT every day in clinical practice.

It's different if you are using CT to risk stratify in an area where coronavirus is known to be endemic and you want to isolate the most severe for admission, although this is still dubious.

I don't have time to explain any more for now apologies but what you suggested is not even remotely a runner.

dan786

The Italian government has announced new restrictive measures in Lombardy and 11 other provinces.

It announced all schools in these areas will remain closed until at least 3 April.

All gyms, swimming pools, health centres, spas, ski resorts, museums and cultural centres have also been closed.

People have been urged not to enter or leave the affected areas.

It has also cancelled all leave for healthcare workers.

martyc5674

owlbethere wrote: »

It beggars belief. It really does. I know a couple who has a cruise holiday booked and due to go in two weeks. They hope to still go.

I just can’t understand why anyone would want to go in a cruise on the first place- my idea of hell!!

Naggdefy

thecretinhop wrote: »

galway bay saying 23 might be wrong

It's 23 on the island of Ireland currently.. with the case confirmed in the east.

TimeToShine

My thinking is that if this is already out west and testing positive there is no way that it isn't already rampant in Dublin. It's highly unlikely to have bypassed the capital like that.

Unfortunately I am expecting a serious ramp in numbers.

twirlagig

Itssoeasy wrote: »

There is another case confirmed in Galway but that would make 20 not 23.

Where is this meant to be?

Achasanai

fr336 wrote: »

I'm not getting ahead of myself here as it's looking bad for everyone but is it worth note that France and Germany are surging ahead meanwhile UK posting relatively modest growth and Ireland tiny? Obviously with air travel the island thing can be overdone but makes you wonder.

The figures are definitely looking good for Ireland (well, just the one case today anyway) so maybe it is the island thing. Not working out so well for Iceland, but maybe their small population skews it somewhat.

thecretinhop

Stewball wrote: »

Why would she park at the UHG to go to the Cinema?

Or am I missing something....

she likes to get steps in lol, she tried video but forgot to actually hit record (in 70s)

loughside

Three new cases in Northern Ireland

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51786339

Three more cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in Northern Ireland.

They are all adults who had recently travelled from Italy and are linked to a previously confirmed positive case.

It brings the total number of cases in Northern Ireland to seven.

It comes on the same day another case was confirmed in the Republic of Ireland, bringing the total there to 19. That new case involves a male in the east of the country who had returned from Italy.

Snow Garden

dan786 wrote: »

The Italian government has announced new restrictive measures in Lombardy and 11 other provinces.

It announced all schools in these areas will remain closed until at least 3 April.

All gyms, swimming pools, health centres, spas, ski resorts, museums and cultural centres have also been closed.

People have been urged not to enter or leave the affected areas.

It has also cancelled all leave for healthcare workers.

Your constant use of bold font makes you look like an idiot and degrades the message.

Cee-Jay-Cee

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Somebody said a few pages back that you won't get 100% of the population getting it. How exactly does this work?

I said it a few times but I'm absolutely terrified and it seems like all the Italians have to do is look at you and you'll get the virus.

Approx 5000 Italians have the virus. That’s 0.01% of the population. That would equate to 550 people here after one month spread.

arctictree

dan786 wrote: »

It has also cancelled all leave for healthcare workers.

Love to see the HSE trying that here!

Naggdefy

I don't get this line that we won't get community transmission. We're not a nation of hermits.

DrumSteve

gmisk wrote: »

Jaysus who are you the sheriff of Nottingham!?

Top ****ing class.

Cee-Jay-Cee

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Somebody said a few pages back that you won't get 100% of the population getting it. How exactly does this work?

I said it a few times but I'm absolutely terrified and it seems like all the Italians have to do is look at you and you'll get the virus.

Approx 5000 Italians have the virus. That’s 0.01% of the population. That would equate to 550 people here after one month spread.

stephenjmcd

odyssey06 wrote: »

You did. Your posts are just exercises in evasion. Someone posts a UK projection on figures, you challenge it as no one has said it will be like that "in this country" and it's panic to post such 'stuff'.
If you want to challenge the UK figures do so.

Exercises in evasion dont make me laugh.

Look at the numbers overall currently in terms of the population of as you mention england. 60+ million , 200 odd cases, my point is and always has been that the chance of catching it is low.

I've never said it wont grow, it will. I'll challenge the stupidly posted figures of 20% of the population etc will get it. Every country is different, nobody can make an definitive assumptions in our country for example.

You seem to be taking my post the complete wrong way, and that's up to you.

And yes it is causing panic, if someone looked at this forum for the first time they'd probably run out to the shops and buy everything available.

I'll take my guidance from the HSE and not you thanks.

The only thing I think they've got wrong is not pulling paddys day

Stewball

thecretinhop wrote: »

she likes to get steps in lol, she tried video but forgot to actually hit record (in 70s)

I'm calling bullplop on your mother in laws story.

ldy4mxonucwsq6

TimeToShine wrote: »

there is no way that it isn't already rampant in Dublin. It's highly unlikely to have bypassed the capital like that.

Yes it is already, the numbers being released by HSE do not include all the positive cases. Don't know what way they are doing it but there are definitely more confirmed cases in Dublin alone.

hmmm

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

Approx 5000 Italians have the virus. That’s 0.01% of the population. That would equate to 550 people here after one month spread.

The Italians are only testing serious cases at this stage - there's no point testing everyone with symptoms, just send them home with a paracetamol and tell them to go hospital only if they have difficulty.

It means the figures from Italy will sound scary, but they are not representative of the numbers who have the virus. Every country will do this in time.

dan786

https://twitter.com/healthdpt/status/1236377571597656066?s=20

DrumSteve

TimeToShine wrote: »

My thinking is that if this is already out west and testing positive there is no way that it isn't already rampant in Dublin. It's highly unlikely to have bypassed the capital like that.

Unfortunately I am expecting a serious ramp in numbers.

But what if there isn't...

What if the contact tracing is working?

Also, what if the HSE hotline is working as intended?

givyjoe

Snow Garden wrote: »

Your constant use of bold font makes you look like an idiot and degrades the message.

It makes his posts look super important though ðŸ˜

odyssey06

GM228 wrote: »

CT scans are to show the damage to the lungs well into the infection, they are not a diagnostic tool, they don't give a clinical diagnosis.

CT scans are a diagnostic tool?
https://www.mountsinai.org/about/newsroom/2020/mount-sinai-physicians-the-first-in-us-analyzing-lung-disease-in-coronavirus-patients-from-china-press-release