Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

drkpower

JDD wrote: »

UK have said 20%- 30% of population likely to get infected. I’ve seen other random reports of 40-70%.

It’s bad enough with my conservative estimates

Which Uk authorities said that?

Cilldara_2000

sideswipe wrote: »

Italy set to shut down worst effected regions like Wuhan-

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-italy-to-tell-people-not-to-enter-or-leave-regions-worst-hit-by-outbreak-11952487

Thanks for letting us know.

ChurchtownMan

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Hmm :cool:

With a population of just under five million, and only nineteen cases of Covid-19, maybe your employer is overeaceting just a tad?

If it was SARS I'd understand.

The cases today are not the figures on which to base decisions. It is known how the graph will rise. To be read from the confirmed detections is the future trend that we can extrapolate from them. See Italy and learn. Home working will delay the rate of infection for some, easing the burden on the health services, and equally if nor more importantly, reducing the reduction in economic activity.

fritzelly

JDD wrote: »

No. That’s assuming only 10% catch it.

40% makes my numbers much, much worse.

Ahh you're right but I'm drunk and we're screwed

Bob24

drkpower wrote: »

So you mean mandatory quarantine? Enforced by what measures?

And what’s the penalty for failing to declare you have been to a cluster zone?

Better to test them. But if not possible do a basic health screening and ask them to self quarantine. Just these measures alongside recommendation for citizens/residents not to go to the area would have greatly reduced the risk (again nothing is 100% perfect but it would have greatly reduced the flow and a majority of people would have followed the instructions).

Penalty? I am not laser but whatever is a considered a very severe deterrent. And enforce it.

ChikiChiki

Mic 1972 wrote: »

if my company sent out a communication tonight i won't know until Monday morning when i open outlook, that's a fact

Haha your dead right.

We have a BCM text system. Nothing has come yet.

But it's laptops home every day for the past week. It's only a matter of time.

Cilldara_2000

JDD wrote: »

UK have said 20%- 30% of population likely to get infected. I’ve seen other random reports of 40-70%.

It’s bad enough with my conservative estimates

Source?

1641

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The only reason it's still going ahead is money. Literally the only reason. It's sick.

Why - do you havre such a reliable source of money that you don't care? Every bit of close down of the economy is going to cost real people real jobs - be they employees, self-employed, etc. - or even if they are dependent on state spending or services, there will br an impact.
I actually think the parade will be cancelled. But all such curtailments will hurt and should not br taken lightly or precipitously. If the outbreak goes as feared it will go on for quite a while and hit the economy hard. People will suffer from this too, and probably die. Nobody wants the vitus to spread further (but it will anyway) but there is a difficult balance to be struck.

drkpower

Bob24 wrote: »

Better to test them. But if not possible do a basic health screening and ask them to self quarantine. Just these measures alongside recommendation for citizens/residents not to go to the area would have greatly reduced the risk (again nothing is 100% perfect but it would have greatly reduced the flow and a majority of people would have followed the instructions).

Penalty? I am not laser but whatever is a considered a very severe deterrent. And enforce it.

So if they were negative for covid, no problem? What’s a basic health screening and what would that achieve?

So not mandatory quarantine then?

The penalty is quite important don’t you think? So what are you suggesting?

ChurchtownMan

JDD wrote: »

That’s 4,500 additional ICU beds (probably more).

How many extra staff will that need? How many masks (assuming three or four per healthcare position per day)? Have the HSE told us how many extra beds there will be, how many ventilators the have, or are on order?

As I said. I’d prefer to get it next week, then at the end of April.

Your conclusion is correct. Even the 4500 and staff on that conservative estimate (and its not far wrong) is unreachable. For many, there simply wont be a health service. On the more realistic or pessimistic projections, the situation is dramatically worse. Spreading the infections over a 12-18 month period, despite the unprecedentent economic shock to the world, must be the aim.

tobefrank321

Mic 1972 wrote: »

But do we know how many traveled back from Italy that didn't get infected? probably thousands of people in the last 2 weeks came back from italy and are ok

it make no sense to single out Italy as the one reason for infection when precautions are not being taken here. You could actually fly to Milan, stroll around and come back and still not get infected if you know how to protect yourself

The point is out of those thousands we don't know who is infected.

Bob24

Mic 1972 wrote: »

if my company sent out a communication tonight i won't know until Monday morning when i open outlook, that's a fact

When there is an emergency out of hours decision, my company has the information cascaded down the management chain by phone. Starting from the top each manager has to personally call all of their direct reports, who themselves have to call all their direct reports, until it reaches individual contributor level.

moeblogs

The Guy on the left doesn't look well...

Bey0nd

Mic 1972 wrote: »

if my company sent out a communication tonight i won't know until Monday morning when i open outlook, that's a fact

We got texts too, and it's already doing the rounds in our WhatsApp groups. You'd swear our syndicate won the lotto with the amount of people celebrating being off for the next few weeks. Loads of them haven't been given work from home access yet! I have

Zapperzy

My employer has been very proactive this week too. They've sent out a fairly fluid list of high risk countries, including all of Italy not just northern regions, mandatory 14 day stay at home on return which is paid. Nearly all business travel practically banned, need VP approval and a damn good reason to get approved for travel. All potential visitors and contactors wanting to gain access to the site must confirm they've not travelled to any high risk country in the past 14 days.

There's an incident team set up which meet daily, lots of potential containment measures being considered including moving all meetings to online platforms. Id say anyone that can work from home will be asked to very soon, would remove probably a few hundred people off site. Talk of severely restricting movement of people across the site too. They've already added loads of hand sanitizing stations.

It's sparking a lot of panic and rumours both on site and around the city but makes me feel more comfortable knowing they're not walking into a potential situation blind, better to be proactive than reactive imo.

Hamsterchops

JDD wrote: »

UK have said 20%- 30% of population likely to get infected. I’ve seen other random reports of 40-70%.

It’s bad enough with my conservative estimates

Just a bad cold man, some sneezin, a bit of coffin, tiredness and lethargy, maybe the runs too?

But you'll be fine after a week or ten days, chill ...

JDD

drkpower wrote: »

Which Uk authorities said that?

It’s part of their “action plan” released four days ago. 20% off work at its peak - that’s what they’re planning for. Which actually means over a 4-5 month period more than 20% will actually catch it.

drkpower

VinLieger wrote: »

We check flight records for everyone arriving back to see where they left for. Again simple answer only reason not to do it is it would be difficult and time consuming.

This whole debacle has revealed our government, institutions and even our citizenry are not prepared to make the hard choices that need to be made, this is a test run and we all failed, if we dont learn from it we wont make it through whatever comes next.

What hard choices do you / did you advocate?

faceman

For those shouting for a travel ban to certain regions....

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/travel-ban-coronavirus-spread

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-travel-restrictions-effectiveness.html

TL;DR version - travel bans only delayed the spread of the virus in China by 3-5 days. It only delayed the spread by 3-5 weeks internationally.

So it was coming one way or another.

drkpower

JDD wrote: »

It’s part of their “action plan” released four days ago. 20% off work at its peak - that’s what they’re planning for. Which actually means over a 4-5 month period more than 20% will actually catch it.

Does that say that 20pc catch it; do you have the link? thanks

Blueshoe

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

One positive of the whole thing could be the breaking of resistance to wfh in many organisations. Think of what everyone who can working from home 3/4 days a week would do for their own work/life balance and mental health not to mention the benefits of less congestion and traffic for those who can't work from home. So I'd really urge anyone working from home to not please not the take the pee and be dossing all day! Get loads done and we'll all benefit.

Those who can't work from home will all be at risk of infection. They will become bitter towards those who don't have to venture out. A campaign of holding up food supplies will surely begin with the intention of starving you out . Once you do start to reappear due to starvation and desperation you will be either executed or imprisoned in tiny cages. Your properties and assets will be confiscated.

This is fair warning. You will not win the war between inees and outees

Mervyn Skidmore

For all the proactive workplaces out there, here's my experience so far working in the public sector. We have been informed to follow HSE guidelines. I work in a public office and still no sign of a sanitising station to be erected. There is one laptop in the office which could be used to work at home.

ChurchtownMan

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

Source?

A leaked government document has suggested up to 500,000 people could die in the UK from coronavirus if the disease is able to infect up to 80 per cent of the country.

While the Department of Health and Social Care said it did not expect the scenario to happen, the briefing to ministers, leaked to The Sun, said “the reasonable worst case” was for four fifths of the country to succumb to the virus.

The document by the National Security Communications Team warned: “The current planning assumption is that 2-3 per cent of symptomatic cases will result in a ­fatality.”


This could mean as many as 500,000 Britons could die.

A spokesperson for the DHSC said: “We have been clear from the outset that we expect coronavirus to have some impact on the UK, which is why we are planning for every eventuality – including the reasonable worst case scenario. Crucially this does not mean we expect it to happen.

fritzelly

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Just a bad cold man, some sneezin, a bit of coffin, tiredness and lethargy, maybe the runs too?

But you'll be fine after a week or ten days, chill ...

That's for sure

RandomName2

VinLieger wrote: »

We check flight records for everyone arriving back to see where they left for. Again simple answer only reason not to do it is it would be difficult and time consuming.

This whole debacle has revealed our government, institutions and even our citizenry are not prepared to make the hard choices that need to be made, this is a test run and we all failed, if we dont learn from it we wont make it through whatever comes next.

We had all the warnings we needed.

We had SARS which was a dangerous flu-like infection, but was contained.

And swine flu which was much less dangerous, but completely failed to be contained.

We now seem to have a combination of the two.

Both SARS and swine flu were caused by poor husbandry. Poor handling of animals (in a consistent manner) around food and humans. This was bound to happen, there was years to prepare. When the outbreak finally occurred there was time to act. Even more recently, at the 11th hour, it would have been possible for our government and health service to take serious action to protect us.

All the governments have given up so easily. The UK and France have officially given up containment. A bit pathetic really.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france/france-reports-fourth-coronavirus-death-macron-says-crisis-could-last-months-idUSKBN20Q22K

tony1980

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Haha your dead right.

We have a BCM text system. Nothing has come yet.

But it's laptops home every day for the past week. It's only a matter of time.

Our company set us all up on Friday with a vpn and laptops home with us from now on.

Atlantic Dawn

We need some Corona Virus floats for Paddy's Day parades.

faceman

Tangential comment. The push to have companies work from home is going to create a new working landscape when this all blows over as many companies realise it’s perfectly viable to have a remote workforce.

Or flipping that over, many companies will find it hard to justify not permitting remote working in their organisation in the future

Cilldara_2000

Blueshoe wrote: »

Those who can't work from home will all be at risk of infection. They will become bitter towards those who don't have to venture out. A campaign of holding up food supplies will surely begin with the intention of starving you out . Once you do start to reappear due to starvation and desperation you will be either executed or imprisoned in tiny cages. Your properties and assets will be confiscated.

This is fair warning. You will not win the war between inees and outees

I have a six month supply of loo roll. I can eat that!

JDD

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Just a bad cold man, some sneezin, a bit of coffin, tiredness and lethargy, maybe the runs too?

But you'll be fine after a week or ten days, chill ...

I’m not worried about the 90% who get a mild dose. I’m talking about the small percentage of hospitalisations.