Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

ITman88

RandomName2 wrote: »

Okay, so only 125,000 deaths if 20% of the population are infected, with current fatality rates.

Not exactly what I would describe as hilarious or hysterical tbh.

WTF????????

gabeeg

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1236433181781495812?s=20

leavingirl

RandomName2 wrote: »

If containment fails, and the infection is allowed run its course, 20% is a likely scenario. For instance, 20% of the world's population was infected with swine flu apparently.

Given how infectious covid-19 clearly is, I would find it ludicrous for anyone to suggest anything lower as being 'likely'. Hopefully with good mitigation I could be made considerably lower, but that's a 'best case' scenario, not 'likely'. The UK is now on a mitigation footing, so this is pretty relevant.

In your dreams. The Swine flu 'epidemic'was total fakery.

fritzelly

gabeeg wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1236433181781495812?s=20

Can we just say it was nice knowing you America

Strazdas

JDD wrote: »

20% infected “at any one time” is the stretching scenario. If this goes on for five months, that HAS to be a stretching scenario of 40% of the population overall being infected, probably more.

That’s why I vastly reduced my estimate, to 10% of the population for the whole 5 month period. Estimates also say that 15% of infected need hospitalisation, and I reduced my estimate down to 5%.

And we’re nowhere near being able to cope with the reasonable, conservative estimate.

We're already heading out of flu season in Ireland and into the warmer weather. The idea that 500,000 Irish people are going to contract the corona virus doesn't seem remotely credible (never mind the 2 million figure).

ITman88

Blueshoe wrote: »

Imagine being someone who lived alone and worked from home everyday. Couldn't be good in the long run. Maybe I'm wrong, Iv never worked from home so have no experience of the scenario.

Everyone is different I suppose, personally I hate working from home, to many distractions on top of everything else, I will easily travel 1 hour to the office, and still feel better for it. Oh and as per living and working alone, that’s solitary confinement, banned under human rights in prison

Quantum Erasure

gabeeg wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1236433181781495812?s=20

these cases in New York, i wonder how many are in NY City versus the rest of the state

Call Me Jimmy

fritzelly wrote: »

Can we just say it was nice knowing you America

Cuomo was talking up the pros of 'aggressive agressive containment' saying it's the only thing that will stop spread. Obviously they're weighing up the same things as everyone but I hadn't heard a politician in the US or the west talking openly about it.

RandomName2

Deleted User wrote: »

Mad thought.....If the slave trade was still going there probably would have been lock downs earlier

China tried to cover this up and locked up the doctor who tried to warn the world about it (the doctor since died from covid-19).

They only got their arses in gear when they realized that the cat was out of the bag and their economy was going to tank as the world shunned them.

Even as it stands administrators don't want to cancel St. Patrick's Day because of the financial cost.

It sounds silly when China and South Korea say they are declaring 'war' on the disease, but that's the kind of mindset you need if you want to beat it. While there is a single person with the virus in your country you have not yet beaten it.

Phoebas

JDD wrote: »

20% infected “at any one time” is the stretching scenario. If this goes on for five months, that HAS to be a stretching scenario of 40% of the population overall being infected, probably more.

That’s why I vastly reduced my estimate, to 10% of the population for the whole 5 month period. Estimates also say that 15% of infected need hospitalisation, and I reduced my estimate down to 5%.

And we’re nowhere near being able to cope with the reasonable, conservative estimate.

It might be a good idea that when you post estimates of 'likely scenarios' you make it clear which estimates are yours, which are the UK Government estimates , and which are yours but based on or inspired by the official UK Government estimates.
Because earlier you were misrepresenting the UK position.

Bob24

drkpower wrote: »

Didn’t see a question in your post; maybe you edited; I’ll answer whatever questions you have, no worries.

So, how would you enforce the quanrantine?
Nd how would you enforce the provision of incorrect info on an airport declaration?

Already addressed on quarantine: the goal is not to have 100% efficiency but to reduce the flow and catch as many cases as possible. So you explain to them it is serious and trust them to do the right thing (exactly as we are doing right now when we are asking people to self quarantine because they are a close contact of a known case), and most people will do it. Some won’t but they are a minority and we have to live with it.

On incorrect information: if it transpires at some point that someone provided wrong information (for whatever reason but likely because they bocome involved in a cluster, as a case, or as a contact of a case) you just enforce the penalty. Not sure what the issue is?

Why do you seem to think this wouldn’t have helped? I think it could easily have reduced imported cases by a factor 10 and thus greatly slowed down propagation here (remember most of our current identified cases are still related to Italy and those are the ones which will create small initial clusters in various parts of the country and kick-off community transmission).

owlbethere

VinLieger wrote: »

We literally could have by implementing strict quarantine and flight and boat restrictions thanks to being a tiny island, but that would have required our leaders and the HSE chiefs to have balls, instead they are all too afraid of being criticised for making the wrong decision.

Politicians are fairly quite. Hopefully they have met and we wake in the morning with a new government. I think SF is too weak. Hopefully FF and FG get in together.They need to work together. I would prefer for Michael Martin to lead the way. He implemented some changes when he was in government, nobody liked them at the time but we grew to like them - the smoking ban, plastic bag levy,

He's the only one I have confidence in to steer this ship.

Kermit.de.frog

gabeeg wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1236433181781495812?s=20

The world is at risk of being pushed in to a deep recession.

Just how long has the virus been circulating in the US? The numbers could be horrific.

That idiot in the White House. If Obama was in charge could you imagine the difference in approach.

ITman88

tony1980 wrote: »

Would love if 2 days at home a week was standard and 3 in the office. I like going in myself, I would hate 5 days working from home a week. I done it for awhile in my last job and hated it after a few weeks.

Agree totally with this. Working from home is a form of torture

RandomName2

leavingirl wrote: »

In your dreams. The Swine flu 'epidemic'was total fakery.

It killed half a million people.

ITman88

RandomName2 wrote: »

It killed half a million people.

Over how long??

RandomName2

ITman88 wrote: »

Over how long??

About 2 years.

gabeeg

This is the biggest global catastrophe since WW2

It's going to get scarier every day. We need to get our **** together.

Away With The Fairies

Why are recovered cases low?

Professor Moriarty

ChurchtownMan wrote: »

Is the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) briefing to the Scottish Parliament sufficiently un red top for you ?

https://www.gov.scot/publications/novel-coronavirus-covid-19-update/

Last night you said

"Several million will likely be infected in Ireland. Tens of thousands will likely die in Ireland."


The rate of new cases in China, where this virus originated, have been decreasing for weeks. They have a mortality rate of 1 death per 586,000 citizens. Explain why Ireland will have a thousand+ times greater mortality rate. Otherwise, you have no credibility.

JDD

Strazdas wrote: »

We're already heading out of flu season in Ireland and into the warmer weather. The idea that 500,000 Irish people are going to contract the corona virus doesn't seem remotely credible (never mind the 2 million figure).

Is there any proof that warmer weather stops the infection? Australia seem to be getting it as bad as the rest of us. Spain’s winter weather is close to our summer weather. Singapore is 27 degrees right now.

I mean, don’t get me wrong, what you’re saying seems right. But I just haven’t seen proof that warmer countries are getting hit less. At least, not without discounting that they are 2nd/3rd world and likely not testing.

RandomName2

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Why are recovered cases low?

Because people are still infected. Most infections are recent, and it will take a couple of weeks for people to recover (which will be most people) or die. Nobody infected in Ireland has recovered yet.

Phoebas

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Why are recovered cases low?

More people have recovered from it than now have it.

But it does take a while to recover.

Mervyn Skidmore

gabeeg wrote: »

This is the biggest global catastrophe since WW2

No, that was Linda Martin's version of "Get Lucky"

TTLF

Great to hear only 1 more case in the Republic this evening.
I am a little worried it's only down to "X" amount of testing again though, and I do feel the numbers will surely have to spike at some point though.

Obviously we can't really "guess" how many people have it, but hearing only 1 today is sorta a surprise that it's going down.

It's either, we're actually (somewhat) containing the virus (less likely imo)
OR
We're not doing as many tests or there's a delay in results?

Of course, I have no clue and It's just a guess, but if anyone has some information (with a proper linked source if possible) It would be greatly appreciated to possibly why there's fewer cases here each day.

Martina1991

juno10353 wrote:

Services at night and weekends are not full staff shift services. We do not now have the staff to run labs 24/7 full strength so backlogs, delays and minimal testing will be the best we can hope for

The majority of laboratory work is performed on specimens from GPs.

Work at weekends is carried on specimens from within the hospital.

Why would we fully staff labs on weekends when GPs and clinics arent open on weekends.

Cilldara_2000

Blueshoe wrote: »

Imagine being someone who lived alone and worked from home everyday. Couldn't be good in the long run. Maybe I'm wrong, Iv never worked from home so have no experience of the scenario.

This is recognised as an issue and is why you would still want to go into the office one or two days a week.

Looking at the occupation table from the 2016 census, there's actually not as many desk jobs suitable for wfh as I would have thought. It is perhaps neither the solution to covid-19 nor the panacea for traffic and congestion around Dublin.

Quantum Erasure

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Why are recovered cases low?

it takes a while to recover, cases are rising fast outside of china, a good proportion of people who got it still have it,

RandomName2

Phoebas wrote: »

More people have recovered from it than now have it.

That's mainly due to China getting their epidemic under control.

gabeeg

JDD wrote: »

Is there any proof that warmer weather stops the infection? Australia seem to be getting it as bad as the rest of us. Spain’s winter weather is close to our summer weather. Singapore is 27 degrees right now.

I mean, don’t get me wrong, what you’re saying seems right. But I just haven’t seen proof that warmer countries are getting hit less. At least, not without discounting that they are 2nd/3rd world and likely not testing.

Without the regular cold and flu knocking around you'd hope transmission would be lowered in winter, but no, there's no evidence that this virus won't be transmitted when in warmer seasons.